Fuel Type: electric-vehicle-bev

Is there hope for EV markets across the world?

With so many hurdles to overcome, is there still hope for electric vehicle (EV) markets around the world? Neil King, head of forecasting at EV Volumes, outlines what is expected to happen to sales with Autovista24 editor Tom Geggus.

EV Volumes expects global light vehicle sales, made up of passenger cars and light-commercial vehicles (LCVs), to grow by 3.6% in 2025. This exceeds the expected 1.1% increase outlined in the previous update.

The reason for this improved outlook is resilient demand in China and the non-Triad region. This forecast factors in US automotive tariffs. However, these are likely to have a smaller impact, with carmakers taking a more cautious approach with their pricing strategies. Other factors taken into consideration include political instability, conflicts, energy prices, and inflation.

Global EV deliveries, including battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), are forecast to increase by 24.5% this year. This means 22.1 million units are expected to hit the roads. The new forecast is up from the 19.7% growth expected in the previous update.

The improved outlook comes despite some governments phasing out purchase incentives and tax breaks amid mounting national debt, particularly in Europe.

The global EV share of the light-vehicle market is projected to grow to 24% in 2025 and 26.7% in 2026. In the following years, this is predicted to rise to 42% in 2030, before hitting 64.1% in 2035, and 83% in 2040. However, budget pressures and policy shifts may threaten investment in incentives and charging infrastructure.

European EV barriers

Western and Central Europe’s light vehicle market is currently facing a barrage of barriers to growth. There is uncertainty about changing goods tariffs, conflict in Ukraine, and tensions in the Middle East concerning European light-vehicle sales.

On top of this, there are the ongoing risks of increasing inflation, oil prices, and energy costs. Furthermore, the September 2025 OECD Economic Outlook predicts that GDP in the Euro area will only grow 1.2% in 2025. This is slightly higher than the 1% growth in the previous forecast. However, this rate is projected to retreat to 1% in 2026, down from 1.2% predicted previously.

Due to weaker goods exports to the US and a struggling services sector, LCV demand was affected by trade frictions and tariffs. Passenger vehicle sales quickly followed suit. Political uncertainty and rising debt levels are also curtailing light-vehicle demand.

More positively, the EU proposed tariff reductions in August 2025 to implement the EU-US trade agreement. This would see duties on the automotive sector reduced from 27.5% to 15%. The EU-Mercosur and EU-Mexico free-trade agreements have also strengthened the competitiveness of the region’s automotive industry. The UK has also negotiated a more favourable 10% tariff rate with the US.

A lower EV outlook

Reflecting the barriers the region faces, EV Volumes has lowered its European light-vehicle sales outlook for 2025. Volumes are now expected to decline by 1.1% year-on-year by the end of 2025. This is lower than in the previous forecast, which projected a 0.3% decline.

The 14.8 million units now expected this year are far below the 18 million registered in 2019. EV Volumes does not expect the European market to return to that level within the current forecast horizon, up to 2040. A 1.9% growth in light-vehicle sales in 2026 hinges on a complex interplay of regulatory and economic factors.

Stricter EU CO2 emissions targets are driving EV sales alongside lower prices, discounting, and the launch of new models. Additionally, the EU Commission plans to adopt a binding regulation in 2026 on vehicle recycling. This will require manufacturers to use more recyclable or reusable materials in new cars and vans.

Meeting the lower emissions targets and circularity requirements will necessitate a major increase in EV sales. In turn, this could even trigger a price war, supported by lower lithium costs. Manufacturers may also restrict the supply of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles to avoid costly emissions fines.

Schemes and incentives

On a positive note, Italy announced €597 million in funding for a scrappage scheme. Meanwhile, Germany is considering the reintroduction of BEV incentives, although this is uncertain due to the coalition government and prevailing economic conditions.

In July 2025, the Electric Car Grant was launched in the UK. EV subsidies were increased for low-income households in France. Social leasing and a conditional extra financial incentive for electric models were launched at the end of September. Spain has also reactivated subsidies under the MOVES III scheme.

Meanwhile, more affordable BEVs are entering the market, and leading Chinese carmakers are planning further moves in the region.

PHEV registrations have exceeded expectations so far this year. This has been driven by eased CO2 targets, expanded Chinese PHEV offerings, and delayed launches of low-cost BEVs. Additionally, the UK’s ZEV mandate relaxation means hybrids can be sold until 2035, exempting them from the 2030 new-car ICE ban.

As a result, EV sales in Europe are expected to grow 26.7% year-on-year in 2025 to 3.88 million units. This accounts for 26.2% of total light-vehicle sales, up from 20.5% in 2024 and 21.3% in 2023. BEV volumes are forecast to grow 23.8% year-on-year, accounting for 67.1% of the 2025 BEV and PHEV mix. Meanwhile, PHEV sales are expected to increase by 32.8%.

So, what do new model launches, lower prices, and stricter emissions targets mean in the following years? EVs are forecast to reach a 30.6% share of European light-vehicle sales in 2026 and 36.5% in 2027.

The forecast for 2035 and beyond includes some tolerance for timing interpretations of the new-car ICE sales ban. It also allows for exemptions for vehicles that may be deemed unsuitable for full electrification.

Chinese resilience

Automotive demand and economic resilience have remained firm in China. The OECD recently upgraded the country’s 2025 GDP growth outlook to 4.9%. Meanwhile, EV Volumes has upgraded its light-vehicle market forecast for China. A total of 27.7 million sales are now expected by the end of 2025, equating to year-on-year growth of 6.7%.

This year has seen China’s scrappage programme extended beyond the original January 2025 deadline. However, it has now been suspended in several cities. This could disproportionately reduce demand for EVs given their higher bonus levels.

However, the country has recently announced a plan to stabilise growth in the automotive industry. Accordingly, China is targeting sales of approximately 15.5 million new energy vehicles (NEVs) this year. Alongside this, it is aiming for a 48% NEV penetration rate.

The country also pledged to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions at the latest UN General Assembly. By 2035, China will look to reduce its emissions by up to 10% from their peak levels. This marks the nation’s first commitment to absolute emissions cuts.

Chinese OEMs continue to launch new PHEVs and extended-range electric vehicles (EREVs). Meanwhile, BEVs are regaining momentum, bolstered by aggressive discounting initiated by BYD.

As such, BEVs are forecast to account for 60.1% of EV sales in 2025 and about two thirds by 2031. EVs are forecast to represent 51.6% of light-vehicle sales in 2025, rising to 73% in 2030, then 88.3% in 2035, and 95.7% in 2040.

Forecast volumes are based on retail sales, not wholesale. This excludes exports and inventory build-up, which explains differences from the typically higher wholesale-based figures published by other agencies.

Tariffs, bills and incentives

On 26 March, the US government announced 25% vehicle import duties. However, a two-year ‘import adjustment offset’ program has been implemented for manufacturers producing vehicles in the US.

According to J.D. Power, average new car prices in the US are expected to increase by 5% by the end of 2025. This could lead to an 8% drop in sales. However, many manufacturers did initially absorb the extra costs.

The ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’ act was signed into law in July 2025, ending EV tax credits on 30 September. Any resulting pull-forward effect so far in 2025 is expected to be offset by weaker demand in the final quarter.

Funding for Canada’s iZEV programme ran out in January 2025, with BEV uptake falling and no replacement scheme announced. In response to economic and trade pressures, the Canadian federal government also paused the 2026 Electric Vehicle Availability Standard. This mandated that 20% of new light-duty vehicle sales be zero-emission. The government initiated a 60-day review to assess and potentially adjust future targets.

EV Volumes has updated the 2025 light-vehicle sales forecast for Northern America, covering the US and Canada. The region is now expected to record just over 18 million sales, up 1.2% year-on-year. However, the year-on-year growth outlook was adjusted downward for 2026 to 2029.

The EV share is now expected to reach 10.1% in 2025 and rise only modestly to 10.2% in 2026. This is primarily supported by a more affordable Tesla model. EV shares are forecast to climb to 21.4% in 2030, before achieving 39.8% in 2035, and 59.1% in 2040. This is well below the predicted global EV share of over 80% in 2040.

Non-triad markets weather tariffs

Light-vehicle sales in non-Triad markets have weathered the economic impact of US trade tariffs better than expected. Accordingly, EV Volumes increased its 2025 sales growth forecast to 4.8%.

Japan increased the budget for EV subsidies under the Clean Vehicle Energy Subsidy Programme in early 2025. Meanwhile, India cut import duties for premium EVs as part of a new manufacturing programme in June 2025.

Indonesia introduced VAT exemption for low-emission vehicles in January 2025 and a reduced VAT rate. Finally, in response to US tariffs, South Korea launched temporary stimulus measures. This included financing support and higher EV subsidies.

Budget constraints driven by economic concerns may limit future incentive schemes. Several countries have also implemented, or plan to introduce, new tariffs on imported vehicles. This includes a 50% tariff in Mexico and up to 30% duties in Turkey. Indonesia is also looking to end incentives for imported, completely built-up BEVs, starting in 2026.

Against this backdrop, the EV share in non-Triad countries is forecast to reach 6.7% in 2025. This equates to around 2.1 million units. This percentage is projected to reach 16.9% in 2030, then 41.8% in 2035, and 76.8% in 2040. The region generally lags the global adoption curve by about five years.

Record EV sales as US new-car market growth continues

Driven by record electric vehicle (EV) sales, US new-car deliveries are expected to marginally increase in the country during September, continuing an upward trend. However, the overall picture is far from straightforward. In its latest forecast, J.D. Power unpicks the data.

Total new-vehicle sales in the US, including retail and non-retail transactions, are projected to reach 1,232,200 in September. This marks a 0.1% year-on-year increase according to the latest forecast from JD Power.

September 2025 has 24 selling days, one more than the same month last year. Comparing the same sales volume, without adjusting for the number of selling days, translates to an increase of 4.5% from 2024.

The seasonally adjusted annualised rate (SAAR) for total new-vehicle sales is expected to be 16.2 million units, up 0.3 million units from September 2024.

New-vehicle retail sales are projected to reach 1,031,400 in September, a year-on-year upswing of 0.4%. Comparing the same sales volume, without adjusting for the number of selling days, translates to an increase of 4.8% from 2024.

Strong demand and EV growth

‘In aggregate, September sales results point to another month of strong demand for new vehicles,’ said Thomas King, president of the data and analytics division at J.D. Power. ‘However, as has been the case for the past few months, assessing the health of the industry requires a closer look at the underlying market dynamics.

‘The biggest driver of September’s strong sales pace is temporarily inflated demand for electric vehicles. The federal EV tax credit expires at the end of the month, which is causing many shoppers to accelerate their purchase.’

The electric vehicle (EV) retail share is expected to reach 12.2% in September. This is an increase of 2.6 percentage points (pp) compared with 12 months ago. In total, this equates to a 27.5% boost in EV sales, selling day-adjusted, from one year previous.

‘The second key driver is affordability,’ added King, ‘although again, the EV dynamic means aggregate results need careful evaluation. In totality, average vehicle prices continue to rise, discounts remain low and monthly finance payments are at record highs, all of which affects the overall sales pace.’

New-vehicle price increases

The average new-vehicle retail transaction price in September is expected to reach $45,795 (€39,087), up $1,310, or 2.9% from September 2024. The average manufacturer incentive per vehicle is on track to reach $3,116, an increase of just $24 from August, and a decrease of $3 from a year ago.

Expressed as a percentage of the manufacturer’s suggested retail price (MSRP), incentive spending is at 6.1%, a decrease of 0.2 pp compared with one year ago. Average monthly finance payments are on track to reach $756, an increase of $21 from September 2024, and the highest on record for that month.

In response, more buyers are opting for extended 84-month loan terms, which are expected to account for 11.0% of finance sales in September. This is the second-highest level on record for the month.

‘The decline in manufacturer incentive spending to just 6.1% of MSRP is notable, but more notable are the limited discounts offered on non-EVs,’ confirmed King. ‘Incentives as a percentage of MSRP for non-EVs fell to just 4.8% of MSRP in September, down 0.8pp from a year ago.

‘Collectively, these pricing dynamics are helping manufacturers preserve profitability amid tariff related cost pressure, but at the expense of higher sales volumes. Nevertheless, there are some positives for new-vehicle demand, most notably lower interest rates, stronger used-vehicle prices and improved loan availability.’

The average interest rate for new-vehicle loans in September is 6.51%, a decrease of 25 basis points (one basis point is equal to 0.01%) from 12 months previous.

Used-vehicle price rises

‘The average used-vehicle price is trending towards $29,668, up $739 from a year ago,’ said King. ‘This reflects the combination of reduced supply of recent model year used vehicles, due to lower new-vehicle production during the pandemic, fewer lease maturities and manufacturers moderating discounts.’

Rising used-vehicle prices are benefiting new-car buyers, with average trade-in equity climbing $534 year on year in September to $8,430. However, that gain is partly offset by larger outstanding loan balances on vehicles being traded in. As a result, the share of new-vehicle buyers facing negative equity is projected to hit 25.9%, up 1.5pp from September 2024.

‘Access to new-vehicle loans for buyers with weaker credit also appears to be improving. The percentage of buyers with sub 650 FICO scores is trending towards 14%, up 3.1pp from last year and the highest level for September since 2016 at 14.9%,’ King affirmed 

‘The stable sales pace, combined with elevated average transaction prices mean consumers are on track to spend nearly $45 billion on new vehicles this month, 8.5% higher than a year ago and the second highest on record for the month of September.

‘Total retailer profit per unit, which includes vehicle gross plus finance and insurance income, is expected to be $2,240, up $12 from September 2024 and up $79 from August 2025. Total aggregate retailer profit from new-vehicle sales for this month is projected to be $2.2 billion, up 6% from September 2024,’ added King.

EV factor set to impact October results

Looking ahead to October, EVs are expected to remain a defining factor in the US new-car market. However their impact on overall sales is likely to change direction.

‘A very significant decline in EV sales is expected for October,’ reflecting both the effect of the federal EV tax credit expiring and the start of payback from all the EV purchases that were accelerated into the summer,’ highlighted King. ‘The net effect will be heavily influenced by the extent to which manufacturers attempt to offset the loss of the federal EV tax credit, if at all.’

‘October sales will also be affected by manufacturers’ pricing and incentive decisions on non-EVs. The current low level of non-EV discounting provides plenty of potential for manufacturers to escalate incentives to bolster demand. However, tariff-related cost pressure remains significant, meaning the current pricing and incentive environment is likely to persist for much of the final quarter of the year,’ He concluded.

Sales details

  • Fleet sales are expected to total 200,819 units in September, down 1.5% from September 2024. Fleet volume is expected to account for 16.3% of total light-vehicle sales, down 0.3ppfrom a year ago.
  • Internal combustion engine vehicles are projected to account for 71.7% of new-vehicle retail sales, a decrease of 4.9pp from a year ago. Plug-in hybrids (PHEV) are on pace to make up 2.6% of sales, up 0.5pp from September 2024, while EVs are expected to account for 12.2% of sales, up 2.pp, and full hybrids (HEVs) are expected to account for 12.4% of new-vehicle retail sales, up 0.7pp.
  • US final assembly vehicles are expected to make up 55% of sales in September, up 4.1pp from a year ago.
  • Trucks and SUVs are on pace to account for 82.1% of new-vehicle retail sales, up 1.6pp from September 2024.

Retail details

  • Retail inventory levels are currently at 2.21 million units, a 17.5% increase from September 2024.
  • The industry’s inventory days of supply is 60 days in September, up from 54 days a year ago.
  • The average new-vehicle retail transaction price in September is expected to reach $45,795, up $1,310 from September 2024. Transaction price as a percentage of MSRP fell to 89.2%, down 0.5pp from a year ago.
  • Retail buyers are on pace to spend $45 billion on new vehicles, up $3.5 billion from September 2024.
  • Average incentive spending per unit in September is expected to reach $3,116, down $3 from September 2024. Incentive spending as a percentage of the average MSRP is expected to decrease to 6.1%, down 0.2pp from September 2024.
  • Average incentive spending per unit on trucks and SUVs in September is expected to be $3,244, down $54 from a year ago, while the average spending on cars is expected to be $2,492, up $167 from a year ago.
  • Leasing is expected to account for 23.9% of sales this month, up 0.6pp from a year ago.

Dealer details

  • The average time a new vehicle remains in the dealer’s possession before sale is expected to be 50 days in September, up from 49 days a year ago.
  • 30.8% of vehicles sold in less than 10 days in September, down 1.5pp from a year ago.
  • Average monthly finance payments are on pace to be $756, up $21 from September 2024. The average interest rate for new-vehicle loans is expected to be 6.51%, down 0.25pp from a year ago.
  • So far in September, average used-vehicle retail prices are $29,668, up $739 from a year ago. Trade-in equity is trending towards $8,430, which is up $534 from a year ago.
  • 25.9% of trade-ins are expected to carry negative equity this month, an increase of 1.5pp from September 2024.
  • Finance loans with terms greater than or equal to 84 months are expected to reach 11.0% of finance sales this month, up 1.5pp from September 2024.

The US EV outlook

‘As the final month of the federal EV incentive draws to a close, EVs are on pace to exceed 12% in the US for the first time ever,’ confirmed Tyson Jominy, senior vice president of data and analytics at JD Power. ‘While this would mark another record, the absence of a significant end-of-incentive surge underscores the underlying softness in consumer demand for the technology.

‘Inventory remains the key storyline as the quarter winds down. Barring a significant final sales week, more than 163,000 EVs remain on dealer lots, with approximately 100,000 of those from legacy automakers. The looming question is, “What happens to this inventory in the final quarter of 2025?” With federal support expiring, manufacturers may be compelled to absorb some or all the lost value to maintain momentum.

‘In the context of the recently released J.D. Power 2025 U.S. Automotive Brand Loyalty Study, there is a bright spot. EVs from franchised automakers are showing 55% nameplate loyalty, outperforming the industry average by 6pp. This suggests that while the broader market may be hesitant, brand equity is still resonating with EV buyers.

‘PHEVs also affected by the tax credit changes, are seeing less disruption. Their 2.6% retail share is 0.5pp below the all-time high set in December 2024, indicating a more stable demand curve.

‘Meanwhile, HEVs continue to gain traction. Retail share stands at 13.8%, up 2.1pp from September 2024 and holding near record highs. This growth underscores the segment’s resilience, even as consumers adjust to the phase-out of the federal incentive for electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids,’ concluded Jominy.

Can the Netherlands lead an electric LCV revolution?

The Netherlands is leading the way in battery-electric light-commercial vehicle (LCV) uptake this year. But what is behind this improvement? Joanna Fabiszewska-Solares, market analyst at EV Volumes, examines the data with Autovista24 special content editor Phil Curry.

The adoption of battery-electric LCVs in the European market is proving slow. Both the volume, and share of fully-electric vans declined in 2024, at a greater rate than that of all-electric passenger cars.

Part of the problem is the higher costs of the technology compared with diesel models. Coupled with this, these vehicles possess a limited driving range, which is hindering uptake.

However, new models such as the Ford Transit, Renault Trafic and the Volkswagen (VW) Transporter, plus updated offerings from Stellantis, are gradually driving demand. Alongside this, zero-emission zones in cities across Europe are further encouraging the technology’s adoption.

In particular, the Netherlands stands out when it comes to battery-electric LCVs. Between January and July 2025 they made up 72.3% of the total LCV registrations in the country. This is compared with a share of just 8.4% in the same period last year, according to data from EV Volumes.

Why is battery-electric LCV uptake improving?

There are several factors that could explain this considerable surge in battery-electric LCV adoption in the Netherlands:

  • Sharp market contraction: Total LCV registrations fell by around 79% year-on-year between January and July. With such low volumes overall, battery-electric LCVs will naturally claim a much higher share.
  • Zero-emission zones: Since the start of this year, a number of municipalities in the Netherlands, including cities such as Amsterdam have introduced zero-emission zones, pushing fleets towards all-electric vans.
  • Tax changes: Internal-combustion engine (ICE) vans lost their exemption from registration tax (BPM) at the beginning of 2025, and now pay the full BPM. Conversely, battery-electric vans pay the minimum fixed rate. Before January 2025, ICE and all-electric vans, when bought by entrepreneurs, were fully exempt.
  • Charging infrastructure: The Netherlands now has one of the densest public charging networks in Europe, aiding uptake of the technology.

Looking ahead, the battery-electric LCV share in the Netherlands may reach around 65% by the end of 2025. This would place the country as the European frontrunner in light-commercial vehicle electrification.

As a result, the Netherlands is on track to surpass Norway, where all-electric models are forecast to achieve around a 41% share this year. By contrast, battery-electric shares in the LCV segment are anticipated to only reach 7.2% in Germany, 8.9% in the UK, 4.2% in Spain, and 4.1% in Poland.

Therefore, electrification of LCVs remains particularly challenging. But the Dutch example proves that a combination of regulation, infrastructure, and cost advantages can rapidly accelerate electric adoption in the sector.

Industrial action plan

In March 2025, the European Commission unveiled the Industrial Action Plan for the European Automotive Sector. This proposed measure is to support the industry’s competitiveness and transition to zero-emission mobility.

A key highlight in the proposal was the relaxation of the 2025 CO₂ emissions targets for cars and vans, extending the compliance period from one to three years, covering 2025 to 2027. This provides manufacturers with greater flexibility to avoid fines. The proposed amendment to the CO₂ targets was officially adopted on 27 May 2025.

EV Volumes calculates battery-electric LCVs in the EU must average 18% share to meet the CO₂ target of 153.9 g/km. The all-electric market share was 5.2% in 2024, and is forecast to reach 9.1% in 2025. In 2026 it should reach 11.8%. A sharper rise is expected in 2027 as manufacturers work to hit the three-year average.

However, EV Volumes does not expect the LCV sector to comply with regulations within the 2025 to 2027 period, but more realistically between 2025 and 2029.

Looking ahead

EV Volumes forecasts that the battery-electric share of LCVs in Western and Central Europe will reach 46.2% by 2030. While the EU ICE ban on new models will accelerate the shift to electric vans, the latest outlook anticipates a 90.4% BEV share for LCVs in 2035. This is lower than the 91% forecast for passenger cars. By 2040, the share of battery-electric LCVs is forecast to rise to 98.9%.

The role of e-fuels and other CO₂-neutral ICE technologies is expected to remain limited, depending largely on national tax policies. EV Volumes also expects the deployment of hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles (FCEVs) to be limited in light commercial vehicles, with their share peaking at just 0.01%.

Cracking the code: Chinese EV brands entering Europe 

Chinese brands are entering Europe with new, technologically advanced electric vehicles (EVs). In a new webinar, Autovista Group experts discuss the impacts and map out the future with Autovista24 editor, Tom Geggus.

Chinese brands have European aspirations for their EVs. But as the market endures ongoing turbulence, is it ready for these vehicles? How have these brands performed so far in the region? Which new and used-car market brand strategies will prove successful in the years to come?

Cracking the code: Chinese EV brands entering Europe, the latest Autovista Group webinar, set out to answer these questions. On the panel was Christian Schneider, director of valuations at Autovista Group. Joining him was Christoph Ruhland, director of business development at Autovista Group.

Economic backdrop for EV brands

Europe saw promising EV market share growth at the beginning of the decade. However, battery-electric vehicle (BEV) and plug-in hybrid (PHEV) sales appear to have hit a small speed bump more recently.

The halting of incentive programmes in some European countries appeared to slow progress. New or reintroduced schemes have helped re-energise electrification. However, this recovery is regional. Different countries have set out different schemes alongside varying levels of natural market demand.

‘If you are speaking about cracking the code of Europe, there is not one code to crack. This is maybe what is also making it so complicated. Every country has specialities and different policies in place, different subsidies in place, different tastes in place,’ Schneider said.

This contrasts with the Chinese new-car market. Figures from the first half of the year show that roughly half of all new light vehicles sold in the country are plug-ins. This is backed by consistent industrial strategy, as well as demand for alternative powertrains, such as extended-range electric vehicles (EREVs).

Taking stock of new arrivals

Chinese brands’ share of the EU BEV market has been quite stable. This increased by one percentage point (pp) year on year in the second quarter of 2025. Meanwhile, PHEVs saw a 7pp increase over the same period.

‘It seems we are shifting a little bit away from imports from Chinese brands in the EU from purely battery-electric vehicles to plug-in hybrids, which are not hit by the tariffs that we have in place,’ Schneider stated.

However, Chinese brand performance is subject to regional specifics. Currently, there appears to be a split between countries in the north and the southeast. The likes of Germany and France have a relatively high income, but also a strong domestic carmaker presence.

This means a slightly lower BEV market penetration for Chinese brands, compared with the likes of Spain, Italy and Portugal. Additionally, countries like these have less-established all-electric markets, allowing for new entrants to gain a foothold more quickly.

Regionality also plays a part in residual value (RV) performance. Germany now sees a 9pp gap on average between new brands from China and those of more established marques. This has improved quite quickly from only a few years ago, when there was a difference of roughly 16pp.

Meanwhile, the Spanish used-car market has seen greater consistency. There has been less change in the value retention of Chinese brands. However, the gap is narrower at 7pp. While these averages offer a useful marker, selecting specific brands for analysis can reveal varied results.

What works for EV brands in Europe

Spanning development, product, sales and marketing, Chinese brands have strengths to play to. However, there is also room for improvement in some instances, Ruhland commented.

Chinese brands are not only competitive but, in many cases, lead in terms of technological capabilities and development speed. However, many of the models being introduced were created for the Chinese market. This means they are not completely aligned with European expectations and demands.

Generally, product quality is good, matching well-known brands and competing on a specification-to-price ratio. High-value equipment, which is often offered as standard on Chinese models, supports residual values too. Although this means lower entry list prices. But there is a divergence in regional preferences.

There are some contrasting customer preferences in China and Europe. The Chinese market values a touch-screen central infotainment system for a majority of controls. However, there is still an appreciation for physical buttons and dials in Europe. A lack of flexibility is apparent when comparing different cabin spaces of competing Chinese models.

Meanwhile, selling models have taken a step forward as brands lean towards dealer networks and away from flagship stores. New entrants can rely on the trust built by those dealerships, alongside their greater coverage. However, high sales targets can drive risky short-term cycle tactics, which can harm RVs.

For these new entrants to stand out in Europe, they need to examine brand recognition. A unique selling point (USP) is necessary to attract European buyers who have an abundance of different domestic and imported options. ‘The brand needs to have a core USP that is easy to remember and easy to communicate,’ Ruhland highlighted.

Enjoyed Cracking the code: Chinese EV brands entering Europe? Then sign up for Autovista Group’s next webinar: The road ahead: Residual value trends and the next market shift. It will take place on 14 October 2025 at 09:30 BST / 10:30 CET. Register for your place today.

Can battery health certificates answer big used-EV questions?

Battery certificates and state of health (SOH) checks are at the forefront of a growing used electric vehicle (EV) market. How will they help answer the big used-EV questions from retailers and buyers? Tom Hooker, Autovista24 journalist, investigates the subject.

For the modern used-car buyer, it has become commonplace to access a plethora of information about any model online. This research can be done through portals or directly from retailers. Yet, the sector is in the midst of a big shift.

As battery-electric vehicle (BEV) and plug-in hybrid (PHEV) registrations increase across new-car markets, the supply of used EVs rises. This presents a new challenge for retailers. They need to convince consumers to buy EVs, while also learning how to accurately price them and make profits.

Battery SOH checks could be a solution to this challenge. They can provide customers with peace of mind while revealing a car’s history, value, and selling potential to retailers.

‘EVs are not degrading the same way as petrol or diesel vehicles. Mileage is not sufficient to have a clear view of the current health of an EV. That means for the exact same mileage, you can buy two EVs with a very different fate,’ BIB batteries CEO Pierre-Amans Lapeyre told Autovista24.

‘Knowing the SOH, you can have the history, the current value and the future. It gives you what should be the real residual value of the vehicle. I would much rather have the SOH of an EV than know its mileage, because from what we have seen on the market, two vehicles with the exact same SOH could have a completely different mileage,’ he added.

Fostering used-EV uncertainty

‘Nowadays, you can advertise a car with photographs, with descriptions, and with diagnostics. Everybody can do that. So, I think as an industry we have solved the problem fairly well with the technology available,’ outlined Roland Gagel, CARA board member at the Used Vehicle Retail Summit.

Roland Gagel, CARA board member

‘We see that this market is very rational, buyers are looking for transparent offers and want to see pictures and descriptions,’ he added. Gagel then explained that BEVs are a different prospect, with the most important aspect of the car being the battery.

He highlighted that current advertisements of used EVs are not clear enough and can foster uncertainty among potential buyers. Late entrants to the EV space could be particularly impacted.

Convincing late adopters

Gagel explained that when buying or selling a three-year-old petrol or diesel car at 70,000km, you can assume it has a well-maintained engine. This means you can easily drive the car for ten more years.

However, the buyer confidence around longevity is very different for electric devices. Mobile phones are one such example. ‘We are not talking about the early adopters, the people who already wanted to have an EV five years ago,’ said Gagel.

‘We are talking about the people who now start to think about it and will maybe finally be convinced. They know that after four or five years, their mobile phone is dead, and the battery is not okay. So, what does that mean for my three or four-year-old EV?

‘I am maybe going to want to resell it after eight or nine years and want to buy another one. So, we have this problem, which is very often the range, because in the end, that is what the driver feels.’

There are tools available to help drivers understand more about the lifespan and health of their EV. Most models now show average energy consumption on their infotainment screen. This can be divided by the total energy storage of the battery, which provides the real, approximate range of the vehicle.

So, customers can be provided with a wealth of information on the condition of a used EV. However, how this information is used and shared by the retailer makes all the difference.

Limited certificate usage

Gagel showed an example of an online used-car portal from a remarketing company. Here, the price of a BEV was marked down by €2,000 without any information on why the model’s price had been reduced.

Additionally, Gagel searched the mobile.de website for a popular German BEV. With certain parameters selected, he got 160 results. Out of this, 50 had a battery SOH certificate. However, in most cases, the actual SOH value could not be found in the description.

‘Imagine you sell a car without mileage, and the buyer calls the dealer to know the mileage. What do you do with such an advertiser? Just skip it and go to the next,’ he commented.

Gagel then went on to show the carmaker’s own website for its used cars. He selected two of their BEV models, which gave him 2,600 search results. However, only 40 of these models had a battery certificate shown on the portal. Lapeyre also noted the lack of SOH certificates on online adverts.

‘There are a lot of studies about the fear of individuals buying EVs, they do not trust the lifespan of the battery. I would say around 50% of dealers today put SOH on their vehicle adverts. You will not sell your EV if you do not have this information,’ he stated.

Regulatory impacts

The introduction of new regulations could also help improve the clarity between used EV sellers and potential customers. SOH checks would be a pivotal technology in achieving this clarity.

For example, the upcoming Euro 7 regulations state that passenger cars must retain at least 80% of their original battery capacity after 5 years or 100,000 km, whichever comes first. Then, after 8 years or 160,000 km, the battery capacity must be at least 72%.

Furthermore, the regulation states that EVs must have SOH monitors onboard. Data from these monitors must be displayed to users, retrievable from diagnostics, and included in the vehicle’s Environmental Vehicle Passport.

‘The regulation that comes with Euro 7 and the battery passport will foster the transparency of the SOH. The regulation will start in 2027, so in the used-car sector, you will see it from 2028 with the first short-term rentals,’ noted Gagel.

‘But I think the real effect will come in 2029 and 2030. So, we have five years to go to sell used cars without the battery pass and Euro 7,’ he added.

Increasing consumer transparency

‘There is an unsourced fear about the end of warranty for EVs. When they end, people are freaked out, and it is not rational,’ said Lapeyre.

According to a 2024 McKinsey & Company survey, 31% percent of prospective EV buyers say they are likely or very likely to consider a used EV for their next vehicle purchase. For those EV sceptics, 49% were concerned about unclear battery degradation.

So, the industry cannot wait another five years to start improving the used EV sales experience and calming EV concerns.

‘The key point for us is how to get this into a B2C sale and how to show the positive part of the batteries. How do we convey this message? How can we train the salespeople to sell this off to the consumer? That will be very important for the industry,’ said Gagel.

‘On the dealership side, I think they need to provide their clients with battery certificates. They need to train their salespeople so that they can show and express the value of an EV to their clients,’ commented Lapeyre.

‘What can you do as an industry? For me, it is very clear, used-car offers need to become more transparent. They are not transparent today,’ said Gagel.

‘In the end, if the buyers do not have clear information about the battery, they will assume there is a problem. The clearer we are and the more we are pushing in the direction of transparency, the more likely it will be that BEVs will recover from their residual values.

‘It is not just good to measure the vehicle, but we have to make sure it gets into the vehicle description, so the customer knows we have good cars to sell,’ concluded Gagel.

Can European car sales survive economic and political uncertainty?

Have forecasts for European light-vehicle sales retained their marginal growth amid economic and political uncertainty? Neil King, head of forecasting at EV Volumes, reviews the latest data with Autovista24 journalist Tom Hooker.

EV Volumes forecasts that Western and Central European light-vehicle sales, made up of passenger cars and light-commercial vehicles (LCVs), will decline by 0.3% year-on-year in 2025.

This is a change from the March 2025 outlook, which projected a 0.7% growth. It is also below the 1.7% increase recorded in 2024, and significantly behind the 14% registrations growth in 2023.

A total of 14.91 million new light vehicles are expected to hit the road this year, a drop of around 148,800 units from the March forecast. Moreover, this figure is still well below the 18.04 million light vehicles registered in 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic and supply-chain crisis.

EV Volumes does not expect the European market to return to that volume level within the current forecast period, which stretches to 2040. A 1.9% growth in European light-vehicle sales is projected in 2026, down from the March projection of a 2.1% increase. This improvement depends on a complex mix of regulatory and economic factors.

Current European uncertainty

There is uncertainty surrounding the impact of changing goods tariffs, developments relating to the war in Ukraine, and increasing tensions in the Middle East. Furthermore, EV Volumes assumes that a rising risk of rising inflation, oil prices, and energy costs will lead to weaker private consumption across the region.

Additionally, the OECD’s June 2025 economic outlook predicts that GDP in the Euro area will grow by only 1% in 2025. Due to weaker goods exports to the US and a struggling services sector, registrations of LCVs are already being affected by trade frictions and tariffs. Passenger car sales are expected to follow suit.

Meeting the lower CO2 emissions targets and circularity requirements mandated by the European Commission will also necessitate a major increase in electric vehicle (EV) sales.

This could trigger a price war, supported by lower lithium costs. Carmakers may also restrict the supply of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles to avoid costly emissions fines.

Ultimately, the outcome will depend on how OEMs balance short-term profit with long-term compliance and market shifts. Considering these developments, has the European EV outlook changed?

European EV sales growth

European EV sales of light vehicles are forecasted to grow by 23.1% year-on-year in 2025 to 3.77 million units. This is up from the 3.53 million sales and 15.1% volume increase projected in March. It also marks a turnaround from the market’s 2.4% decline in 2024.

EVs are expected to represent 25.3% of total European light-vehicle sales this year, a positive revision from the 23.4% share forecast in March. Furthermore, it is a notable improvement from the 20.5% EV market hold in 2024 and the 21.3% share in 2023.

Driven by new model launches, lower prices, and emissions targets, EV Volumes forecasts that EVs will reach a 29.2% share of European light-vehicle sales in 2026. This is significantly higher than the 26.4% market hold predicted in March.

In 2027, the EV share is expected to rise to 35.4%. Again, this is up from the previous forecast’s projected share of 33.3%.

Battery-electric vehicle (BEV) volumes are forecast to grow by 20.9% year-on-year in 2025, accounting for 67.4% of the 2025 EV mix. Meanwhile, plug-in hybrid vehicle (PHEV) sales are expected to increase by 27.8%.

Looking further forward, EVs are expected to capture 62.9% of European light-vehicle sales in 2030, up from the March forecast of a 60.5% share. This market hold is predicted to increase to 93.5% in 2035, up from 93.1% in the previous outlook. In 2040, EVs are projected to account for 99.4% of the total European market.

The forecast for 2035 and beyond includes some tolerance for timing interpretations of the ICE new-car sales ban and allows for exemptions for vehicles that may be deemed unsuitable for full electrification.

Regulations affecting European EVs

In March 2025, the European Commission unveiled the Industrial Action Plan for the European Automotive Sector. It proposed measures to support the industry’s competitiveness and transition to zero-emission mobility.

One of these was the relaxation of the 2025 CO2 emissions targets for cars and vans, which was officially approved in May 2025. More specifically, the compliance period has been extended from one to three years, providing manufacturers with greater flexibility to avoid fines.

However, some measures were not included in the Action Plan, such as the discussion surrounding the potential exclusion of PHEVs from the 2035 new-car ICE ban.

Consequently, EV Volumes’ forecast for BEV adoption anticipates moderate share growth in 2025 and 2026.

Then, a more significant increase is expected in 2027, as manufacturers strive to meet the average CO2 emissions targets of 93.6 g/km for cars and 153.9 g/km for LCVs over the three-year period.

To meet these targets, EV Volumes calculated that the BEV share of EU light vehicles needs to average at least 20% between 2025 and 2027. This means a 20.5% share is required for passenger cars and an 18% market hold is needed for LCVs.

Yet OEMs are not forecast to achieve this 20% average for all light vehicles by 2027 without additional EU-wide stimulus. This is mainly due to slower LCV electrification. Instead, EV Volumes anticipates that the targets will be met over the 2025 to 2028 period.

This forecast could be revised if further exemptions and lower targets are put in place. New EU-wide or national incentives could also alter EV share projections.

Incentives altering European projections?

An example of these incentives can be found in Italy, where €597 million in funding for a scrappage scheme has been announced, as reported by Il Sore 24 Ore.

Meanwhile, Germany is considering the reintroduction of BEV incentives in 2025, after subsidies stopped at the end of 2023. However, the implementation of new funding may be delayed due to economic conditions.

Furthermore, more affordable BEVs are expected to enter Europe. Leading Chinese OEMs like BYD are also planning to expand in the region.

On the other hand, PHEV registrations are exceeding expectations. This was the major factor in June’s upward revision for 2025 EV sales. The additional volume is driven by the eased CO2 targets, expanded PHEV offerings from both European and Chinese players, and delayed launches of low-cost BEVs.

Additionally, the UK’s ban on new petrol and diesel models from 2030 still allows all hybrid types to be sold until 2035.

The country’s government has also announced the return of EV incentives from 16 July. The scheme will reduce the cost of some new EVs by up to £3,750 under grants. This signals a change in policy for the UK and will impact future forecasts.

Varied European country outlooks

The current EV Volumes outlook sees the UK registering 702,911 EVs in 2025, a sharp increase of just over 131,000 units compared to its 2024 total. The powertrain grouping is expected to take a 39.6% market share in 2025, up from 32.5% in the previous year.

Italy will hope its new incentives can help to boost EV adoption, which has been sluggish compared to other major light-vehicle markets. EVs are forecast to represent 11.6% of the market in 2025, up from 8.7% in 2024. Sales are projected to increase by just over 44,000 units to 166,104 registrations.

An effective implementation of subsidies can be seen in Spain, which has helped BEV and PHEV volumes to soar. The reintroduction of the incentive scheme includes grants, tax breaks, and support for charging.

In 2025, the country is projected to see a year-on-year gain of over 80,000 units to 201,801 EV registrations. The EV share is expected to rise from 13.6% in 2024 to 21.9% this year.

Even without incentives, EV sales in Germany are on track to bounce back to 2022 levels. The powertrain grouping is forecast to record 829,398 sales in 2025, an increase of over 246,000 units compared to last year. EVs are expected to account for 30.2% of the total light-vehicle market, up from 21.4%.

On the other hand, France is currently suffering a decline in EV volumes. This is reflected in the current outlook, which sees it dropping nearly 5,600 sales year on year to 456,953 units. However, this is largely due to the wider light-vehicle market declining as the EV share is predicted to grow to 32.3% from 31.4% in 2024.

LCV EV uptake lags

LCVs still lag in EV uptake. A registrations growth of 43.7% growth in 2023 was promising, especially compared to a 16.2% improvement for passenger cars. However, both the volume and share of electric LCVs declined more than passenger cars in 2024.

High costs relative to diesel models and limited driving range hindered adoption. Nonetheless, new models, such as the Ford Transit, Renault Trafic, VW Transporter and updated Stellantis electric vans, are expected to drive demand.

EV Volumes forecasts that the EV share of LCVs will rise from 5.4% in 2024 to 10% in 2025. Its market hold is projected to increase to 13.5% in 2026 and reach 52.1% by 2030.

While the new-car ICE ban will accelerate the shift to electric, EV Volumes anticipates a 92.3% EV share for LCVs in 2035, compared to 93.7% for passenger cars. This is expected to rise to 99.1% in 2040.

The role of e-fuels and other CO2-neutral ICE technologies is expected to remain limited, depending largely on national tax policies. EV Volumes also expects the deployment of hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles to be limited in light commercial vehicles, with their share peaking at just 0.01%.

Is global turmoil a threat to future EV sales?

US tariff uncertainty remains, conflicts continue, and economic headwinds prevail. These are just some of the factors affecting global light-vehicle sales outlooks. But how will they impact electric vehicle (EV) figures? Neil King, head of forecasting at EV Volumes, reviews his projections with Autovista24 journalist Tom Hooker.

The global light-vehicle market, made up of passenger cars and light-commercial vehicles (LCV), is forecast to improve by a modest 1.1% in 2025. EV Volumes expects over 90.15 million units to be registered this year.

This is down from its previous 1.2% growth prediction made in an interim report in April. The figure is also a 0.7 percentage point (pp) drop from its March forecast. This equates to a loss of around 40,000 units from April’s report.

This is due to continued subdued order intake in Europe, caused by high interest rates and elevated living costs.

The downturn also takes into account US automotive tariffs, which were announced in March, as well as ongoing uncertainty surrounding broader trade duties since April, growing instability in the Middle East, and the continued Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Global EV growth continues

Meanwhile, Global EV deliveries, which combine battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), are forecast to rise by 19.8% in 2025 to 21.29 million units. This represents an increasingly positive outlook, with a 19.2% improvement forecasted in April.

However, this improvement would still be below 2024’s 25.3% increase. This was, however, with a lower total volume of 17.78 million EVs registered.

This year’s double-digit global EV growth is expected to come despite some governments phasing out purchase incentives and tax breaks amid mounting national debt, particularly in Europe. Non-Triad markets and robust PHEV demand in Europe have held up the forecast, offsetting downgrades in China and North America.

While EVs took a 19.9% share of the global light-vehicle market in 2024, the powertrain grouping is predicted to capture 23.6% of overall sales this year. This figure is stable from April’s forecast.

BEVs are expected to take a 65.1% share of the light vehicle EV market in 2025, with a year-on-year delivery improvement of 22.9%. PHEVs are forecast to see slower growth of 14.3% giving them a 34.9% share.

This is a drop from the 36.6% PHEV share in 2024, when the powertrain outpaced BEVs in terms of growth. The former enjoyed a 55.1% surge in volumes compared to BEVs’ 12.8% improvement.

Longer-term forecasts

Looking further forward, the global EV share is forecast to reach 26.4% in 2026, before improving to 42.2% in 2030, reaching 64.2% in 2035, and 83.1% in 2040. However, budget pressures and policy shifts may threaten investment in incentives and charging infrastructure, which could impact the outlook.

The global volume of EVs is set to rise from 21.29 million units in 2025 to 40.15 million registrations in 2030. A total of 64.02 million deliveries are expected in 2035, increasing to 86.7 million units in 2040. This figure is almost five times the number of EV sales recorded in 2024. 

Annual traction battery demand is forecast to increase from just under 0.87 TWh in 2024 to around 5.77 TWh in 2040. The latter is nearly seven times the actual annual demand seen last year.

EV Volumes also forecasts that global battery demand for light vehicles will surpass 1TWh in 2025.

This is driven by the quest for longer electric ranges in all vehicle segments. Yet, the trend for larger batteries is slowing as they gain in efficiency. Furthermore, lower costs facilitate the electrification of smaller vehicles, where profit margins are tighter.

The number of EVs in operation is increasing rapidly. However, their share of the overall light-vehicle fleet is developing with a considerable delay.

There are 1.33 billion light vehicles on the road today, with plug-ins accounting for just 4.1% of this total. EV Volumes predicts it will take until 2043 for more than half of the global fleet to be electric. This is calculated using their current forecast for EV growth, which assumes normal scrappage rates.

Europe set for decline?

In Western and Central Europe, EV Volumes expects that light-vehicle sales will decline by 0.3% year-on-year in 2025. This is lower than their interim April 2025 forecast, which projected a 0.1% increase. It is also a significant drop from the predicted growth of just under 0.7% in their March forecast.

A total of 14.91 million light vehicles are expected to take to European roads in 2025. This is slightly down from April’s forecast of 14.99 million units and still well below the 18.04 million light vehicles registered in 2019.

This downward revision comes as uncertainty persists regarding the impact of changing goods tariffs, developments in Ukraine, and escalating tensions in the Middle East. EV Volumes also assumes a growing risk of rising inflation, oil prices, and energy costs, which will lead to weaker private consumption across the region.

Furthermore, the OECD’s June 2025 economic outlook predicts that GDP in the Euro area will grow by only 1% in 2025.

Due to weaker goods exports to the USA and a struggling services sector, EV Volumes sees registrations of LCVs already being affected by trade frictions and tariffs. Passenger-car sales are expected to follow suit.

European regulatory and economic factors

Moreover, EV Volumes does not expect the European market to return to its 2019 volume level within the current forecast horizon, which stretches to 2040. In 2026, a 1.9% growth in European light-vehicle sales is projected. This hinges on a complex combination of regulatory and economic factors.

Meeting the required lower CO2 emissions targets and circularity requirements mandated by the European Commission will necessitate a major increase in EV sales. This could trigger a price war, supported by lower lithium costs. OEMs may also restrict the supply of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles to avoid costly emissions fines.

On a positive note, Italy has announced €597 million in funding for a scrappage scheme, as reported by Il Sore 24 Ore. Meanwhile, Germany is considering the reintroduction of BEV incentives in 2025, after subsidies stopped at the end of 2023. However, the implementation of new subsidies may be delayed due to economic conditions.

Furthermore, more affordable BEVs are expected to enter Europe. Leading Chinese OEMs like BYD are also expanding in the region.

On the other side of the EV market, PHEV registrations are exceeding expectations. This additional volume is driven by the eased CO2 targets, expanded PHEV offerings from both European and Chinese players, and delayed launches of low-cost BEVs.

Additionally, the UK’s ban on new petrol and diesel models from 2030 still allows all hybrid types to be sold until 2035. The country’s government recently announced the cost of some new EVs will soon be reduced by up to £3,750 under grants. This signals a change in policy.

Altered European EV forecast?

As a result of these factors, EV Volumes expects that European electric light-vehicle sales will grow by 22.8% year-on-year in 2025 to 3.77 million units. This is a notable increase from April’s forecast of 3.51 million registrations, translating to a year-on-year rise of 14.3%.

EVs are predicted to represent 25.3% of total light-vehicle sales this year, up from a 20.5% share in 2024. In the previous forecast, the increase was projected to be 23.4%.

Broken down, BEV volumes are forecast to grow by 20.6% year-on-year and account for 67.4% of the 2025 EV mix. Meanwhile, PHEV sales are expected to increase by 27.7%.

Driven by new model launches, lower prices, and stricter emissions targets, EV Volumes forecasts that EVs will reach a 29.2% share of European light-vehicle sales in 2026. Then, BEVs and PHEVs are expected to account for more than one in three registrations in 2027.

The EV share is then projected to rise to 62.9% in 2030, reaching 93.5% in 2035, and 99.4% in 2040. The forecast for 2035 and beyond includes some tolerance for timing interpretations of the ICE sales ban and allows for exemptions for vehicles that may be considered unsuitable for full electrification.

China boosts domestic production

Considering the current economic headwinds, China’s government has focused on boosting domestic automotive consumption. Additional support has been directed toward state-owned OEMs.

However, trade friction with the US has added uncertainty, and China’s economic growth in 2025 is expected to fall short of the 5% target.

The country’s scrappage scheme, which offers higher trade-in bonuses for EVs than for petrol vehicles, has supported the market’s strength alongside a favourable cost of ownership and increasingly competitive pricing.

After launching in April 2024, the program has been extended beyond the original January 2025 deadline, as reported by the International Council on Clean Transportation. However, it has been suspended in several cities, which could disproportionately reduce demand for EVs given their higher bonus levels, electrive reported.

A stable outlook?

Taking all these factors into account, EV Volumes maintained its 2025 Chinese light-vehicle market forecast of 26.7 million units, an improvement of 2.7% year-on-year.

EVs are forecast to represent 51.4% of all light-vehicle sales this year, up 7.1pp from its 2024 market share. This is then projected to increase to 72.8% in 2030, before growing to 88.3% in 2035, and 95.5% in 2040.

Chinese OEMs continue launching new PHEVs and extended-range electric vehicles (EREVs). Yet, BEVs are regaining momentum, bolstered by aggressive discounting initiated by BYD. As such, BEVs are forecast to account for 61.5% of EV sales in 2025 after reaching a 57.7% share of the EV market in 2024. This share will then grow to two thirds by 2030.

Forecast volumes in China are based on retail sales, not wholesales. This excludes exports and inventory build-up, which explains the differences from the typically higher wholesale-based figures published by other agencies.

Tariffs impact Northern America

The Northern American automotive market, which includes the US and Canada, is impacted by the 25% tariffs imposed by the US on imported vehicles.

To reduce the impact, there are adjustments for US parts content in Canadian and Mexican-built models, but even vehicles assembled in the US do not escape unscathed. This is because the tariffs still apply to non-US components.

Average new car prices in the US are expected to increase by 5% by the end of 2025, which in turn could reduce sales by 8%, according to J.D. Power representatives.

On a more positive note, a reimbursement scheme was implemented by the US government at the end of April, which offers OEMs tariff relief over two years. Carmakers assembling vehicles in the US can receive a credit worth up to 3.75% of the vehicle’s manufacturer’s suggested retail price. This then drops to 2.5% in year two.

So far, prices have largely held steady. However, discounting has weakened and an increase in vehicle demand referred to as the “pre-tariff bump” had already subsided by June.

Meanwhile, a Republican-backed Senate bill will see EV tax credits of up to $7,500 (€6,420) disappear by 30 September. This has led to carmakers urging buyers to take delivery of a new model by the deadline, according to Reuters. Any resulting pull-forward effect in 2025 is likely to be offset by weaker demand due to higher vehicle prices.

In Canada, funding for the iZEV programme ran out in January 2025, with BEV uptake falling and no replacement scheme announced.

Revising downward

Considering these developments, EV Volumes lowered its 2025 light-vehicle sales forecast for Northern America to 17.66 million units, a decline of 1% year on year. This would be a weak performance for the market after its 2.9% growth in 2024.

The long-term outlook has also been revised downward, by around 29,000 sales in 2026 and 65,000 units in 2027.

The combined BEV and PHEV share is now expected to fall from 10.2% in 2024 to 9.9% this year. In 2026, the EV market hold is projected to rise modestly to 11.1%. This is expected to be primarily supported by a more affordable Tesla model.

The EV share is then forecast to climb to 22.5% in 2030 and 41% in 2035. BEVs are PHEVs are predicted to make up 60.3% of the overall Northern American market in 2040, some distance below the expected global EV share of over 80%.

Non-triad outlook improves

In non-Triad markets, light-vehicle sales are expected to increase by 1.8% in 2025 to 30.88 million units.

This was an upward revision of 0.1pp from April, when the weaker global economic outlook, especially considering US trade tariffs, led EV Volumes to downgrade its growth projections. However, June’s forecast is still below the 2.3% improvement projected in the March forecast.

The EV share in non-Triad countries is forecast to reach 6.6% in 2025. This would be ahead of the 5.9% market hold projected in April’s outlook, and the 4.5% share recorded last year. Total electric light-vehicle sales are predicted to reach 2.03 million units this year, around 234,000 deliveries higher than the previous forecast.

This total would translate to an EV sales growth of 49.5% year on year, even higher than the 34.2% increase recorded in 2024. BEVs are forecast to see volumes rise by 43% in 2025, while PHEVs are projected to enjoy an even greater increase of 72.9%. In turn, the BEV share of the EV light-vehicle market is expected to drop from 78.5% to 75.2%.

EV subsidies implemented

Several factors may have influenced this upward revision and projection of strong growth. Firstly, Japan increased the budget for EV subsidies under the Clean Vehicle Energy Subsidy Programme in early 2025. Elsewhere, India cut import duties for premium EVs as part of a new manufacturing programme in June 2025, as written by Business Standard.

Indonesia introduced a VAT exemption for low-emission vehicles in January 2025 and a reduced VAT rate thereafter. Finally, in response to US tariffs, South Korea launched temporary stimulus measures, including financing support and higher EV subsidies, Reuters reported.

However, budget constraints driven by higher defence spending and macroeconomic concerns may limit future incentive schemes. The non-Triad EV share is projected to reach 16.8% in 2030, then 41.6% in 2035, and 76.7% in 2040. This means the region’s EV market generally lags the global adoption curve by about five years.

The regions and technology pushing public EV charging forward

The number of public electric vehicle (EV) charging points continues to grow, but which region and technology leads the way? Using the latest data from EV Volumes, Autovista24 editor Tom Geggus assesses the situation.

Charging infrastructure continues to grow across the world as EV adoption drives demand. But what is the best way to measure the volume of plug-in points currently available to the public?

Across 75 markets, EV Volumes tracks the number of locations where a certain connector type can be found. This surpasses a simple tally of station numbers, instead accounting for charger variety.

A station with two combined charging system (CCS) points counts as one location. Meanwhile, a charger offering one CCS and one CHAdeMO connection counts as two locations.

According to this classification, 3.85 million EV charging points were tallied by May 2025. This equated to an increase of 34.8% compared with the same point last year. However, this is slower than the 42.6% growth in May 2024 and far below the 81.8% recorded 12 months before that. There was an increase of 34.7% at the same point in 2022, but this was down from the 53.2% jump in May 2021.

Speedier charging?

While the rollout of public EV infrastructure might have slowed, not all technologies have developed at the same rate. Dividing charging speeds into three categories reveals some emerging trends.

some emerging trends.

The normal speed category includes type 1, 2 and 3 points, Tesla high-power wall connectors, and Chinese GB/T AC chargers. The power output in this category extends up to 24kW.

This grouping saw year-on-year growth of 71.8% in May 2023 and 58.3% in the same month last year. By May 2025, nearly 2.15 million normal-speed charging points were recorded across the 75 observed markets. This meant slower year-on-year growth of 23.4%.

The fast-charging category has followed a similar path. This grouping is made up of 22-60kW GB/T DC Chinese connectors as well as 50-350kW CHAdeMO and CCS plugs. By May this year, 1.69 million fast-charging points were tallied, up by 53% compared with the same point 12 months ago. This followed growth of 45.4% in May 2024 and 101.1% a year prior.

The ultra-fast category covers 250kW Tesla Superchargers and 350kW CCS plugs. The number of these points increased by 11.8% to 9,371 by May 2025. This grouping saw year-on-year growth of 27.1% by the same point in 2024 and 47.7% in May 2023.

Fast charging accelerates

While the ultrafast category has grown more slowly, EVs capable of charging at this speed remain in the minority. Additionally, these are often more premium models, outside of the mass market.

Meanwhile, the list of EVs capable of accessing fast charging infrastructure is far more expansive. Carmakers want to address concerns of longer plug-in times, introducing speedier charging capabilities more broadly as the technology advances.

This helps account for the fast-charging category seeing nearly double the growth of the normal grouping in May 2025. The technology also made up 44% of recorded public charging infrastructure, up by 5.3 percentage points (pp) from May 2024.

Most of this gain was at the expense of the normal speed grouping, which saw its share fall to 55.8%. At the same point last year, the technology made up 61% of all recorded plug-in points. This development follows the technological progression of EVs as they achieve faster charging speeds.

Meanwhile, the ultra-fast category shrank marginally by 0.1pp to 0.2%. This is likely due to the technology’s greater exclusivity, higher costs and greater demands on the grid. But have these charging speed trends been consistent across all regions?

Europe’s charging infrastructure

Across Europe, including the EU, EFTA and the UK, EV Volumes counted 442,804 public charging points. This equated to an increase of 14.4% compared with May 2024.

The region’s rate of growth does appear to have slowed since May 2023, when the tally jumped by 42.3% year on year. This was followed by a 29.1% increase at the same point in 2024.

With a 74.7% share, the majority of infrastructure in the region belonged in the normal speed category. However, the rate at which this category is expanding slowed to 11.7% year on year. This followed growth of 27.9% in May 2024 and 39% in the same month in 2023.

Both the fast and ultra-fast infrastructure groupings were subject to this trend as well. The fast category saw growth slow from 55% in May 2023 to 33.1% 12 months later, then 23.1% this year. This meant the technology took a 24.7% share, while ultra-fast remained stable at 0.6% over the last three years.

The Netherlands boosts numbers

While Europe has seen an increasing amount of public charging infrastructure installed, the spread was far from even. The Netherlands led the way, with 117,413 points recorded by May 2025.

This is not surprising given the country’s booming EV market. In the first five months of the year, the country recorded 80,373 new EV registrations, according to data from ACEA. This meant plug-in powertrains made up 54.1% of all new-car deliveries in the Netherlands from January to May.

Germany had the second-largest number of EV charging points, reaching a tally of 54,681. However, at 15,421 points, Germany had three times the number of fast chargers as the Netherlands at 4,429. In third, the UK reached 50,481 public chargers in total, with 18,587 fast points making up approximately a third of its overall offering.

At the other end of the spectrum, Malta had 75 normal speed chargers available. However, its smaller EV market has already experienced a drop in the first five months of the year. 835 plug-in vehicles were registered, down by 34.9%.

The EU is expected to see public EV charging infrastructure grow thanks to the Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Regulation. This year, charging stations outputting between 22kW and 150kW must be set up every 60km along the TEN-T road network.

There are also local requirements. In Germany, the Masterplan Ladeinfrastruktur, sets out a strategy to reach 1 million public charging points by 2030. Elsewhere, France aims to roll out 400,000 public charging points by 2030.

Way out in front

So, how does Europe compare with other major EV markets? According to EV Volumes, China’s new plug-in vehicle market grew by 42.2% year on year between January and May. This equated to the sale of 4.76 million units, the largest amount globally.

Accordingly, the number of public charging infrastructure far exceeded any other market. By May this year, just under 3.13 million points were available, up by 40.2% year on year. The normal category took a 51.6% share of this total, while 48.3% were fast. Ultra-fast, on the other hand, made up only 0.1% of public charging infrastructure.

As noted by the International Energy Agency’s (IEA’s) Global EV Outlook, there are important regional differences worthy of note. EV drivers in China’s densely populated urban areas rely on public infrastructure. Meanwhile, Europe has a far greater number of private chargers at home.

Uncertainty in the US

Compared with the relatively consistent expansion of charging points in China, the US has seen varied growth. The country recorded 81,693 connectors by May this year, marking a growth of 13.5%.

Normal speed chargers made up the majority of points, accounting for 77.7%, followed by fast points at 17.8%. However, where the US stood out was the far larger number of ultra-fast chargers, which made up 4.5% of plug-in points.

The National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure (NEVI) programme put aside $5 billion (€4.2 billion) to fund fast charging along corridors. However, the IEA highlights that by the end of last year, only $30 million had been spent on points which are now in operation.

Furthermore, these funds were frozen in January 2025 so the new administration could carry out a review. This put the further rollout of public EV charging infrastructure in the US into a far more precarious position.

With so many different approaches across the world, the rollout of public EV charging infrastructure will continue to be uneven.

European EV registrations rise as new model records first win

Battery-electric (BEV) and plug-in hybrid (PHEV) registrations rose across Europe in April, but which newcomer topped the BEV charts for the first time? Autovista24 journalist Tom Hooker breaks down the latest EV Volumes data.

A total of 186,827 BEVs were handed over to customers in Europe during April, up 27.7% year on year. This equated to a gain of 40,506 units. The result also continues the technology’s monthly double-digit growth streak between January and April 2025.

Meanwhile, PHEV volumes increased by 30.6% in the month, reaching 98,330 deliveries. This was the powertrain’s biggest improvement in the first four months of the year.

Registrations of all-electric vehicles totalled 765,820 units over the first third of the year. This resulted in a 27.9% growth compared to the same period in 2024. PHEVs increased deliveries by 11.5% from January to April, with 366,838 units.

Germany once again recorded the highest BEV volumes in Europe during the month. The country accounted for 24.3% of the technology’s total registrations, continuing a rebound from a difficult 2024.

France followed with a 14.3% share, then came the UK which represented 13.2% of the market. Belgium and Norway were the fourth and fifth, recording a 6.7% and 5.9% share respectively.

Germany also led the PHEV market, capturing 24.7% of the technology’s total. The UK landed second with a 14.2% share, followed by France which represented 9.6% of deliveries. Spain ended up fourth with a 9.4% share, as Italy made up 8% of volumes.

New model leads BEV registrations

The Skoda Elroq was the best-selling BEV in Europe in April, with 7,663 registrations. This was the compact SUV’s highest delivery total in only its sixth month on the market. The Elroq accounted for 4.1% of overall sales. Before April, the model had not appeared in the BEV top 10. It sat 17th in the cumulative chart between January and April.

The Volkswagen (VW) ID.3 took second place with 6,938 deliveries, up 33.4% on the same month last year. This marked its strongest monthly result since June 2024 and its highest ranking in the best-sellers table in the first four months of the year. The hatchback claimed a 3.7% market share, up 0.1 percentage points (pp) compared to April 2024.

The combined total of the Renault 5 and Alpine A290 followed, missing out on second place by just 138 units. The pair delivered 6,800 models to European customers, equating to a 3.6% share. It also marked the BEVs’ best finishing position since February.

Just 22 units behind was the VW ID.7 with 6,778 deliveries. This meant volumes of the saloon increased by 633.5% compared to April 2024. It represented 3.6% of the BEV market, up from 0.6%.

Its sibling, the VW ID.4, finished fifth. Its 6,323-unit total was a 4.7% improvement on 12 months prior. Yet, due to increased competition, its market share fell from 4.1% to 3.4%.

Skoda Enyaq struggles

The Skoda Enyaq secured sixth, continuing the dominance of VW Group in April’s BEV chart. The SUV increased registrations by 29% in April to 5,633 units. However, this was the first time it placed outside the top five in the first four months of the year. Its sales may have been impacted by the success of the Skoda Elroq. The Enyaq made up 3% of overall deliveries, stable from April 2024.

The Kia EV3 took seventh, posting 5,574 registrations in its seventh month on the market. This figure translated into a 3% share. The BMW iX1 followed in eighth, with its first appearance in the top 10 this year. It recorded 5,297 deliveries, up 17.6% year on year. The SUV represented 2.8% of the BEV market, down 0.3pp.

Ninth place went to the Tesla Model Y, with 4,805 units. Compared to April 2024, when it led the best-sellers table, this proved a notable slump of 49.9%. It also marked the crossover’s lowest delivery total since October 2022. This caused the Model Y’s market share to drop from 6.6% to 2.6%.

In 10th was the Audi Q4 e-tron, recording 4,595 registrations. This was the SUV’s lowest finishing position in the 2025 results, as its volumes fell by 22.3% year on year. In turn, its market share declined by 1.5pp to 2.5%. This meant that six VW Group models were featured in the BEV best-sellers table for April.

Tesla still tops BEVs

Despite its poor April performance, the Tesla Model Y continued to lead Europe’s BEV market in the cumulative table. Between January and April, it recorded 35,192 registrations giving it a 4.6% market share.

There was a change for position in second, as the VW ID.4 moved ahead of the Tesla Model 3. This was largely due to the Model 3’s 24th-place finish in April. The ID.4 took a 3.5% market share thanks to 26,798 deliveries, while the Model 3 recorded 26,028 registrations and a 3.4% share.

The Skoda Enyaq ranked fourth with 25,540 units, just 11 ahead of the VW ID.7, which saw a boost from strong April sales. Another 109 units behind was the combined total of the Renault 5 and Alpine A290. These models accounted for 3.3% of the BEV market.

In seventh was the ID.3, displacing the Kia EV3. The hatchback posted 24,301 registrations and a 3.2% share. Meanwhile, the EV3 recorded a 3.1% share with 24,007 deliveries.

Then came the Audi Q4-tron with 21,715 registrations, accounting for 2.8% of the overall market. The BMW iX1 completed the top 10, posting 19,676 deliveries and a 2.6% share.

Volvo XC60 recovers

The Volvo XC60 was the most popular PHEV in Europe in April, thanks to 5,093 registrations. However, this signalled a decline of 2% compared to 12 months prior. Its share fell from 6.9% to 5.2%, as competition in the sector intensified.

BYD’s Seal U secured second place with 4,783 units, accounting for 4.9% of total volume. Close behind, the VW Tiguan posted 4,753 deliveries, an impressive 623.4% increase on the same month last year. The SUV captured a 4.8% market share, up 3.9pp.

The BMW X1 followed in fourth, with 3,029 registrations. This was its best result so far in 2025, yet the performance was down 6.7% on April 2024. The SUV captured 3.1% of PHEV volumes, down from 4.3%.

After leading the market in March, the Ford Kuga placed fifth in April. The PHEV recorded 2,949 deliveries, its smallest monthly figure since August 2024. Despite a 7.4% growth in registrations, its market share fell by 0.6pp to 3% due to increased market saturation.

Toyota C-HR registrations surge

Securing sixth was the Toyota C-HR, surging 321.2% year on year with 2,864 units. It accounted for 2.9% of the market, up 2pp compared to 12 months prior.

Seventh went to the Mercedes-Benz GLC. Although it achieved its biggest monthly total so far in 2025, the SUV’s 2,634 deliveries were still down by 23.2%. This translated to a 2.7% share, down from 4.6%.

Just one unit behind was the Cupra Formentor. However, it had contrasting fortunes compared to one year ago, enjoying a 6.2% rise in registrations. Yet, its market share dropped by 0.6pp to 2.7%.

BMW’s 5-Series placed ninth after landing outside the best-sellers top 10 in March. The saloon reached 2,587 deliveries in the month, up 145.2% year on year. The PHEV accounted for 2.6% of the overall total, up from 1.4%.

The Audi A3 closed out the top 10, making its first appearance in the table this year. The model recorded a 2.7% fall in volumes compared to April 2024. However, its 2,538-unit total was the model’s highest monthly figure since then. It took a 2.6% market share, down by 0.9pp.

VW takes fight to Ford

The Volvo XC60 continued to lead Europe’s PHEV market in the year to date, with 19,905 registrations and a 5.4% share. Behind, the VW Tiguan took second from the Ford Kuga. The former recorded 17,646 deliveries and a 4.8% share between January and April. Meanwhile, the Kuga made up 4.3% of PHEV volumes with 15,918 units.

BYD’s Seal U finished fourth thanks to 14,974 registrations. This translated to a 4.1% market share. Then came the Toyota C-HR, with a 3.3% share and 12,193 deliveries. The Cupra Formentor secured sixth, accounting for 3.1% of the overall total, with 11,253 units.

Just 246 registrations behind was the BMW X1, benefitting from a strong April. This gave the SUV 11,007 units and a 3% share. The BMW 5-Series claimed eighth, representing 2.6% of the PHEV market and posting 9,633 deliveries.

The Hyundai Tucson claimed ninth with 8,941 registrations and a 2.4% share. Skoda’s Kodiaq was only 180 units behind the SUV, recording 8,761 deliveries and capturing 2.4% of total volumes.

Is Europe’s EV decline impacting market forecasts?

EV Volumes

With Europe’s light vehicle market slowing, how have electric vehicle (EV) forecasts been affected? Neil King, head of forecasting at EV Volumes, presents the latest outlook with Autovista24 special content editor Phil Curry.

Europe’s light-vehicle market, made up of passenger cars and light-commercial vehicles (LCVs), has experienced a rollercoaster ride this year. Major markets across the continent enjoyed relatively consistent growth following the end of the supply-chain crisis in August 2022.

However, this year has seen instability, with strong overall increases offset by large declines. With high interest rates and the cost-of-living crisis, the automotive market is in a state of flux.

EV Volumes has reduced its forecast for Europe’s light-vehicle market in 2024. It now expects growth of 2.4% across the continent by the end of the year, down from the 2.6% forecast in June 2024.

At almost 15.1 million units, this falls far short of the 18 million light vehicles registered in Europe in 2019. Moreover, EV Volumes does not see the European market returning to this level during the current forecast horizon, up to 2035.

Difficult forecasts for EVs

Europe’s EV market, made up of battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), has seen a significant slowdown. The electric light-vehicle market saw deliveries in Europe increase by 17.4% in 2023, with 3.15 million new units taking to roads across the continent.

However, some major markets changed their incentive schemes in the past 12 months. Germany ended all subsidies by the end of 2023. Meanwhile, France reduced the number of eligible models based on new carbon footprint figures. Even EV-friendly Norway has ended its VAT exemption for EVs.

Although Italy introduced an incentive scheme in May 2024, the funds dedicated to BEVs were totally depleted within a day. This caused a spike in passenger-car BEV registrations during June, with figures having returned to normal since July.

On a positive note, countries such as Spain and Poland are considering the revision of EV purchase subsidies. More affordable BEVs such as the Citroen e-C3 are rolling out too. Additionally, global EV-leader BYD has expansion plans for the region, as do other Chinese OEMs.

Provisional tariffs impact

This expansion is despite the EU imposing provisional import duties on BEVs manufactured in China.

Imposed on 5 July, the tariffs remain provisional and are subject to change. Discussions with the Chinese authorities are ongoing, hoping to ‘explore possible ways to resolve the issues identified in a WTO-compatible manner.’

Furthermore, OEMs have only had to provide bank guarantees at this stage. No additional duties are to be collected until a final agreement becomes definitive in November.

So far, only Tesla has announced a modest price increase of about €1,500 for the China-sourced Tesla Model 3. Meanwhile, both Nio and Xpeng stated they will not change prices in the EU. BYD is expected to absorb the tariffs without increasing prices.

MG-parent SAIC stated that it has sufficient stock to supply the market until the tariffs become definitive in November. Finally, falling lithium prices are also allowing OEMs to put off price increases of China-built BEVs.

EV Volumes assumes that prices will largely be unchanged until the tariffs become definitive in November, and these could yet be applied at a lower rate too. The impact on the 2024 BEV sales forecast for Europe is therefore negligible. However, it has considered price changes and demand elasticities, adjusting the forecast accordingly for 2025 and beyond.

EV declines ahead

Considering these market trends and tariffs, EV Volumes forecasts that European EV sales will fall 2.5% year on year in 2024. This equates to 3.07 million unit deliveries.

This equates to only 20.4% of all light-vehicle sales. This is lower than the 21.4% share achieved in 2023, and even the 20.7% gained in 2022.

There is a high risk that the EV share does not even exceed 20% this year. Volumes of BEVs are forecast to decline 3.5% year on year, with the technology accounting for 67.8% of all EV deliveries.

However, EV Volumes only forecasts a modest 0.2% decline in PHEV sales. This is because they offer a stepping stone to full electrification. Additionally, incentive changes mean BEVs have lost their price advantage in major markets like Germany.

Volumes to drop in forecasts

In terms of electric volume and share expectations, EV Volumes has lowered its forecasts for this year. This is partly because of a reduced outlook for total European light-vehicle sales. However, it also reflects weaker EV adoption in multiple countries and the lacklustre recovery of Germany’s BEV market.

Electric vehicles are also forecast to see slightly lower market shares in the years ahead. This follows the reduction or complete withdrawal of incentives as governments contend with high debt levels. Alongside this, more countries are pushing back on the EU zero-emission mandate for 2035.

Compared to the previous forecast, the European market share of BEVs and PHEVs is now expected to reach 24.2% in 2025 (was 25.9%), 61.1% in 2030 (was 62.3%) and 93.4% in 2035 (was 94.1%).

The forecast for 2035 includes some tolerance for timing interpretations of the zero-emission vehicle mandate. It also allows for exemptions for internal-combustion engine vehicles that may be deemed unsuitable for full electrification.

However, EV Volumes foresees a return to registrations growth next year, with EVs predicted to gain a 24.2% share. This is thanks to the rollout of new EVs and the implementation of more ambitious CO2 emission targets for new cars and vans in the EU, set at 93.6g/km for 2025-2029.

Tough times for electric LCVs

LCVs still lag far behind in electrifying, but a 49% growth in electric deliveries last year is encouraging, especially compared to the 16% growth for passenger cars.

High prices for EVs in this market, compared to diesel models, are still inhibiting. However, key new products such as the Ford Transit, Renault Trafic, and VW Transporter BEVs will help the market. So too will upgraded versions of the small, medium, and large electric vans offered by Stellantis brands Fiat, Peugeot, Citroen, and Opel/Vauxhall.

EV Volumes now forecasts that the EV share of the LCV market will decrease from 7.5% in 2023 to 6.6% in 2024. This will be followed by an increase to 9.8% in 2025, and 51.6% in 2030. Long term, the 2035 ZEV mandate will further accelerate the transition to pure-electric LCVs.

The forecast assumes that all Western and Central European markets will follow the directive, allowing for some exemptions and grace periods. Therefore, the ZEV share is unlikely to reach 100% in 2035, but EV Volumes forecasts a 92.6% share, compared to 93.5% for passenger cars.

Go to Autovista24 for related articles.

Which EV manufacturers performed the best in 2024 so far?

EV Volumes

Which electric vehicle (EV) manufacturers stood out in the first half of 2024? EV Volumes founder, Roland Irle, reviews the most successful OEMs in the electric light-vehicle market with Autovista24 editor Tom Geggus.

Covering both passenger cars and light-commercial vehicles (LCVs), the global light-vehicle market saw mixed performances from EV manufacturers in the first half of 2024. One of the most noticeable trends was that OEM success followed regional growth patterns.

Many Chinese vehicle makers recorded impressive growth between January and June. Compared to the restrained results of most Western OEMs, the likes of Geely, Changan, Li Auto, Seres (Aito) and Chery did particularly well.

BYD’s year-on-year volume growth slowed to 26%, compared to the 62% surge it recorded last year. Despite this, the manufacturer remained the global EV-market leader.

Its product portfolio featured 37 nameplates for sale in the first half of 2024. This included battery-electric vehicles (BEVs), plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) and extended-range electric vehicles (EREVs). However, BYD is not yet present across all vehicle segments and it does not offer mini-EVs. It is also late to the EREV party.

Source: EV Volumes. Note: Light vehicles include passenger cars and LCVs. EVs include BEVs and PHEVs.
Source: EV Volumes. Note: Light vehicles include passenger cars and LCVs. EVs include BEVs and PHEVs.

BYD is also China’s largest OEM by production and sales volumes, despite only offering BEV and PHEV models. It sold roughly 161,000 vehicles outside China, and only some 17,000 in Western and Central Europe. South America, ASEAN, the Middle East and Russia were BYD’s largest export regions, with combined sales of roughly 114,000 units.

Tesla manages to hold on

Tesla was still the leading OEM in terms of global BEV sales between January and June 2024, but only by a small margin. Its deliveries declined by 7% year on year, which is the first time this has happened in this time period. Tesla’s volumes in China, Western Europe, North America, as well as Australia and New Zealand all declined compared to the first half of 2023.

The BEV builder is facing fierce pricing competition in China, while its refreshed Model 3 suffers rollout delays. The base model of the electric sedan was also not eligible for grants under the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) as its batteries were built in China. Going forward, the batteries for this variant will be US-sourced.

Monthly volume levels of Tesla models are often erratic, indicating changes in logistics and re-routing of supply, in order to retain grants and avoid tariffs.

Likewise, Volkswagen (VW) Group felt its grip on the global EV market slacken between January and June. It was only able to record 6% year-on-year sales growth, while the global EV market was up 22%.

Audi and Cupra were responsible for the OEM’s growth, while its other brands recorded declines. However, the opposite was true in China, where the VW brand continues to participate in the ongoing price war but Audi and Porsche do not. The Cupra brand is not sold in China.

Geely’s EV gains

Geely was a big winner in the first half of this year, tripling its global EV sector share. Its Chinese brands saw sales increase by 68% year on year.

Its European affiliate Volvo has also grown faster than the stagnating European EV market, where the Swedish brand sells most of its EVs. The new Volvo EX30 BEV was an instant hit with some 45,000 units sold in the first half. Approximately 39,000 of them were sold in Europe alone.

Geely, including Volvo, Polestar and Smart (formerly owned by Mercedes-Benz) exported roughly 118,000 units from China in the first half of 2024. Some 98,000 of these units were sold in Europe.

Of these European sales, roughly 93,000 were China-made models from Volvo, Polestar, Smart and Lotus. Import tariffs on China’s EV exports to Europe will limit this potential for growth. This is unless they are exempted from tariff increases or production is relocated to the region.

Jumping 32% in the first half of 2024, GM’s sales grew more quickly than at the same point last year. Several of its new models on the new Ultium battery platform are gaining traction in the US.

In China, the Buick Velite 6 BEV (not built on the Ultium platform) recorded roughly 33,000 sales. This is a new record for Buick in the region, beating all other previous model performances. However, the overall result for GM was dragged down by the phase-out of the Chevy Bolt, including the EUV derivative.

Most of the manufacturer’s recent growth can be attributed to its Chinese affiliate, Wuling. Co-owned by SAIC, the brand has been expanding and upgrading its portfolio. Dwindling sales of the Honguang Mini-EV were offset by the larger Wuling Bingo and the Starlight PHEV. This large sedan comes with a starting price as low as ¥89,000 ($12,400).

Stagnating market affect

Stellantis saw its EV deliveries decline by 9% thanks to its high exposure to Europe’s stagnating EV market. Subsidy cuts have affected sales of lower-priced EVs, an important sector for Stellantis. The OEM’s deliveries in Europe fell by 20%, while sales of Jeep, Dodge and Chrysler models in the US and Canada rose by 35%.

BMW Group sold 13% more EVs in the first half of this year. Mini recorded heavy year-on-year losses of 46%, while the BMW brand saw solid gains of 20%, with particular success in Europe. The German marque sold the second-largest number of EVs in Europe in the first half.

In the last two years, Changan has successfully launched three new brands, Avatr, Deepal and Qiyuan, also known as Nevo. The OEM has a total of 12 models positioned from the entry-premium level upwards, including EREV powertrains.

This effort has paid off. Changan’s sales increased by 87% in the first half, exceeding the 60% growth recorded at the same point last year. The company has plans to enter the Europe market.

Flat sales for Hyundai Motor Company

Hyundai Motor Company saw its sales stay flat in the first half. However, Kia was able to make slight gains over Hyundai. Launched in the summer of 2023, the Kia EV9 recorded some 19,000 sales in the first six months of 2024.

Otherwise, model volume changes were small. The only exceptions were the Kia Bongo and Hyundai Porter, which saw the end of generous electric LCV grants in South Korea. This resulted in a loss of some 17,500 sales. Dropping deliveries in Europe and South Korea were balanced by good growth in the US. In China, the OEM sold only around 3,000 units of the Kia EV5.

Li Auto, known for its large range-extender-equipped SUVs, saw continued sales growth in the first half. Following the launch of the L6 and increasing sales in Russia, the manufacturer managed to record 14,400 unit sales.

Ageing model lineup

GAC Aion’s brands lost momentum due to an ageing model lineup. Mercedes-Benz’s growth was hampered by volume losses in China and the phase-out of proprietary Smart models.

Compared to a weak first half of 2023, Seres saw sales grow by 515% between January and June 2024. Aito’s two new large SUVs featuring EREV technology, the M7 and M9, generated most of this growth. Aito seems set to follow in the footsteps of Li Auto.

Toyota, the world’s largest vehicle OEM, sold roughly 161,000 EV units in the first half. However, this only made up approximately 3% of its total sales. However, the vehicle manufacturer did record healthy year-on-year growth.

While SAIC recorded growth, this fell below expectations. It exported 58% of its volume, roughly 89,000 units. Approximately 56,000 of these models were sold in Europe, 3,000 units behind the first half of 2023.

Chery saw its sales increase with new, more premium entries. However, the OEM’s large export ambitions have not materialised, at least not for its EVs.

Incentives impact

The Renault-Nissan Mitsubishi Alliance experienced difficulties in the first half. The OEM group recorded weak EV sales in Japan. This followed a phase-out of the all-electric Renault Zoe before the Renault 5 and Renault 4 models could be handed the baton.

Purchase incentives are now no longer available for the Dacia Spring in France as it is built in China. This resulted in a drop of roughly 12,000 units, or 80% of its sales in the country.

Dongfeng recorded some 127,400 EV sales across its nine brands, resulting in healthy growth in the first half. The state-owned OEM is a leading manufacturer of internal-combustion engine (ICE) cars and trucks, although, its EV branch appears dysfunctional.

Only 4% of Ford’s total global sales in the first half came from EVs. Meanwhile, Nio, Leapmotor and XPeng all recorded healthy growth as well. However, sales volumes were still far from the 400,000-a-year viability threshold.

Leading EV deliveries

Models from Tesla and BYD led the global EV market in the first half of 2024. The Tesla Model Y was the world’s best-selling vehicle across all categories, including ICE vehicles. However, its figures were down between January and June, particularly in Europe.

One reason for this was increased competition in the BEV market. This includes the Volvo EX30, the BMW iX1 and iX2, as well as the Hyundai Kona. Even though these models are smaller than the Model Y, they offer an attractive alternative for buyers not concerned about size. If Tesla offered a model in the C-SUV space, this could help the OEM maintain market share.

With the Model Y now five years into its life cycle, a refreshed version, codename Juniper, is around the corner. It will likely produce the same improvements as the Model 3’s refresh. Many will wait to buy a new Model Y or go for a Model 3 in the meantime.

Production of the Model Y in Berlin suffered three unplanned shutdowns in the first half of 2024. This was due to acts of sabotage at the Berlin factory as well as shipping issues in the Red Sea.

The network of high-power fast chargers is improving. Additionally, Tesla grants access to their Superchargers for many other brands now. One of Tesla’s unique strengths is wearing thinner now.doption in mature markets.

Source: EV Volumes. Note: Light vehicles include passenger cars and LCVs. EVs include BEVs and PHEVs.
Source: EV Volumes. Note: Light vehicles include passenger cars and LCVs. EVs include BEVs and PHEVs.

Refreshed results for BYD Song

The BYD Song PHEV was not only the second-best-selling vehicle in China but was also the second-best-selling EV worldwide. The midsized SUV features BYD’s DM-i PHEV technology and starts from ¥136,000. Thanks to its recent refresh, sales increased again in the first half of 2024.

Deliveries of the Tesla Model 3 fell by 12% in the first half. Supply of the enhanced BEV was constrained in the US in the first quarter. Additionally, the base variant did not qualify for IRA grants due to its China-sourced battery.

Sales of the all-electric sedan grew by 41% in Europe but dropped by 22% in China and 36 % in the US. Model 3s sold in Europe are made in China. This indicates that Tesla prioritised European deliveries ahead of the implementation of new import tariffs. To manoeuvre around these new duties, Tesla will need to re-locate volume production for Europe to Berlin.

The BYD Seagull BEV, known as the Dolphin Mini in export markets, is the OEM’s smallest and most affordable model. Starting at ¥70,000, the Seagull undercuts the BYD Dolphin by ¥30,000 and cannibalises sales from its larger sibling.

In fifth, the BYD Yuan Plus BEV, known as the Atto 3 in export markets, saw sales decline by 20%. The Yuan Plus continues to lead the compact SUV segment in China. The model could take this title for the third year running, but it does now face fresh competition. The entire segment is also stagnating as buyers upgrade to larger SUVs which offer more innovations and EREV variants.

BYD’s warship lineup

The BYD Qin Plus DM-I was one of the best-selling models in China, leading the midsize-sedan segment in the first half. It was joined by its sibling from BYD’s warship line-up, the Destroyer 05 PHEV. Both models share the same architecture, powertrain and batteries.

The Qin Plus starts at ¥110,000 in China, while the Destroyer is available from ¥120,000. The model’s main export market is Russia, having delivered 2,500 units in the country in the first half.

Designed in cooperation with Huawei, the Aito Wenjie M7 is a large SUV from the Seres Group. Aito’s model lineup is similar to Li Auto’s, with a focus on large SUVs powered by EREV technology.

The BYD Dolphin finished eighth in the first half of 2024, losing sales to its Seagull sibling. Approximately 30% of Dolphin production is exported, mostly to South America and ASEAN countries. Sales in Europe reached 4,100 units between January and June this year.

The Hongguang Mini EV continues declining from its peak of over 420,000 sales in 2021 and 2022. New competition from the likes of the Changan Lumin and the Geely Panda took its toll. Buyers are also upgrading from mini cars to small cars, such as the BYD Seagull and the Wuling Bingo.

But which models and manufacturers will take home the EV-sales crown at the end of 2024? Keep up to date with the latest data-driven insights from EV Volumes on Autovista24. In the meantime, find out whether the global EV market really did slow down in the first half of 2024.

Go to Autovista24 for related articles.

Is the global EV market slowing down?

EV Volumes

New electric vehicle (EV) sales across the world continued to grow across the first half of 2024. But did the market show signs of slowing? EV Volumes founder, Roland Irle, explores the progress of plug-ins with Autovista24 editor Tom Geggus.

The global new light-vehicle market, including passenger cars and light-commercial vehicles, grew by 3.7% in the first half of 2024. Within this, combined battery-electric vehicle (BEV) and plug-in hybrid (PHEV) sales increased by 22% year on year to 1.35 million units.

As confirmed by EV Volumes data, deliveries of new EVs did grow relatively consistently between January and June 2024. Because of the Chinese New Year, February was the only month not to record double-digit growth in the first half.

Source: EV Volumes. Note: Light vehicles include passenger cars and LCVs. EVs include BEVs and PHEVs.

This consistency and competitively high level of growth appears promising at first. However, it does represent a slowdown from the same point last year. In the first half of 2023, the global EV market saw deliveries climb by 35% year on year.

Uneven EV growth

Growth has also become more uneven across the world. Despite accumulating economic woes, China continues to drive the global EV market in terms of volume. The country made up 60% of global electric vehicle sales in the first half of the year. Combined, BEVs and PHEVs represented 46% of the Chinese new-car market in June.

New plug-in volumes also outpaced the wider light vehicle market in China. EVs surged 31% year-on-year in the first half of 2024, while overall sales increased by 2%.

Over-capacity is a common challenge in the country, which means prices are coming down. Growth is particularly strong for both premium segments and extended-range electric vehicles (EREV). This powertrain uses a small internal-combustion engine generator to charge the battery instead of driving the wheels. Like BEVs and PHEVs, EREVs can be charged via the mains.

global EV market
Source: EV Volumes. Note: Light vehicles include passenger cars and LCVs. EVs include BEVs and PHEVs.

Sales stagnation in Europe

Europe is continuing to see EV deliveries stagnate following the exceptional growth of 2020 and 2021. While the overall new light-vehicle market continues to recover, growing by 5.2% in the first half, EV sales only increased by 1%. This follows many European countries reducing or removing purchase subsidies, first for PHEVs and then for BEVs.

In the US, the effects of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) are wearing off, following a steep growth in EV sales in recent years. On top of this, there are also uncertainties and challenges surrounding the eligibility of different vehicles for grants. The first half of 2024 was characterised by delays of not only vehicles but also batteries, with OEMs having to re-route supply chains to comply with IRA requirements.

EV deliveries in the region jumped by 12% in the first six months of the year, ahead of a 3.2% improvement for overall light-vehicle deliveries.

Elsewhere around the world, some EV markets recorded triple-digit growth, albeit from low bases. The most significant markets in terms of volumes and growth were Brazil, India, Thailand, Turkey, Mexico, Indonesia, Taiwan and Malaysia. However, two of the largest markets in this group, Japan and South Korea, appear to be going into reverse.

Are EV sales really slowing?

So, is the global EV market crashing? Not quite. While growth is slowing, this follows the rapid plug-in increases in both volume and share in 2021 and 2022. But global EV sales are still increasing, up by 22% in the first half of 2024, outperforming the total market growth of 3.7% by a wide margin.

In Europe, EV sales are stagnating, however, following the exceptional growth of 2020 and 2021. Looking back, there is the 2020 95gCO2/km New European Driving Cycle (NEDC) mandate and green recovery support measures to consider.

Introduced during the pandemic, this created an unprecedented EV boom during 2020 and 2021. Volume increases by 136% and 68% year on year respectively. This means CO2 emission targets were easily reached.

Europe’s EV demand outstripped supply, as prices were pushed up and discounts disappeared, creating generous margins for some models. However, the pandemic and its associated costs stressed public budgets. This pushed funds for green projects towards EV charging infrastructure, which remains insufficient.

Grant effect

From 2022 onwards, EV grants in Europe were gradually reduced, first for PHEVs, and then for BEVs. More expensive EVs also saw greater restrictions around subsidies.

By 2024, at least six countries phased out direct purchase incentives. This includes high-volume markets such as Germany, Norway, Sweden, the UK, Italy and Switzerland. However, annual road tax exemptions have remained intact in many locations.

As order backlogs cleared, supply caught up with slower demand. This has hailed a turning point, as a buyers’ market returned. This put margins under considerable pressure, with many EV models starting to lose money.

Having comfortably met the European CO2 mandates between 2020 and 2024, there is currently little incentive for carmakers to push for more EV deliveries. However, this will change in 2025 when fleet emissions will need to be 15% lower than in 2021. Therefore, efforts are better saved for this upcoming challenge.

What comes next?

EV Volumes expects new EV sales to reach a total of 16.5 million units this year worldwide. This would equate to an increase of 16% compared to 2023. Broken down by region, China is forecast to account for 10 million units, Europe 3.3 million units, North America 2 million units, with the rest of the world making up 1.4 million units.

Source: EV Volumes. Note: Light vehicles include passenger cars and LCVs. EVs include BEVs and PHEVs. 2024 figures are forecast.

Nearly one in five light vehicle deliveries will be an EV this year. However, PHEVs are gaining more ground globally than BEVs. This is mainly thanks to the growing popularity of EREVs in China, which EV Volumes categorise with PHEVs. While EREVs are less technically complicated than PHEVs, their fuel-saving potential is greater.

The downside of this powertrain is that a larger battery is required than in a standard PHEV. For the driver, there is also a disconnect between the sounds of the engine and the motion of the vehicle.

The first modern EREVs were the Chevy Volt and the BMW i3 Rex, which were both discontinued. Today, EREVs hail from China, with Li Auto kick-starting the recent renaissance.

EREVs cover the typical PHEV domains of midsize and large cars, as well as SUVs. In China, the powertrain now accounts for 18% of all EV sales in these segments, and a third of all PHEVs. BEVs represent 45% of sales in these segments while PHEVs make up 55%.

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How is Europe’s EV slowdown affecting its market forecast?

EV Volumes

Europe’s electric vehicle (EV) market has slowed in the first half of 2024. But how will it affect the market this year and beyond? Neil King, head of forecasting at EV Volumes, presents the latest forecast with Autovista24 special content editor Phil Curry.

Europe’s new light-vehicle market, made up of passenger cars and light-commercial vehicles (LCVs) is undergoing a difficult year in 2024, following its bounce back from various challenges last year.

The passenger-car market has seen slow growth, with declines in March and May, while the LCV market is currently performing well, but offers smaller volumes into the new light-vehicle sector.

The latest figures are compared to a period, however, where volumes increased rapidly, following the impact of a supply-chain crisis in 2021 and 2022. This was exacerbated by the war in Ukraine, and the fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic.

Yet, the market this year is more subdued, due to high interest rates and the continuing cost-of-living crisis.

With this in mind, EV Volumes has revised its forecasts from March 2024. The European new light-vehicle market is now expected to grow by 2.6% this year, a lower figure than the 3.1% improvement forecast earlier this year.

The 15.1 million units this equates to is far short of the 18 million vehicles registered in Europe during 2019. EV Volumes does not see the European market returning to this level during the current forecast horizon, which runs to 2035.

EV market fluctuates

In 2023, European new EV deliveries, made up of battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) increased by 17.4% year on year. A total of 3.15 million units were registered, gaining a 21.4% market share, up from the 20.7% share seen in 2022.

This is despite many countries, including Germany, France and Ireland, reducing incentives for EVs during the year, especially for PHEVs. Even Norway, a leading market in plug-in  adoption, ended its VAT exemption in the year.

Germany abruptly ended incentives for BEVs in December, Ireland reduced purchase subsidies in July, and France has further reduced their incentives, removing them completely for company-car buyers and vehicles imported into Europe. Also, in January of this year, Switzerland completely removed the 4% import tax exemption for BEVs.

In addition, most legacy OEMs can stay safely below their CO2 limits without selling more EVs. This means they can turn their attention back to more profitable internal-combustion engine (ICE) vehicles.

However, there have been positive steps in the EV market this year. Italy has introduced a new incentive scheme, while countries such as Spain and Poland are considering the revision of plug-in purchase subsidies.

There are also more affordable BEVs rolling out, such as the Citroen e-C3. Meanwhile, global EV leader BYD has expansion plans for the region, as do other Chinese OEMs.

Slowdown continues

EV Volumes has lowered its forecast for EVs in Europe’s new light-vehicle market this year. The sector is expected to grow by 4.9% compared to 2023, despite the anticipated lacklustre growth of the wider light-vehicle market. The technology is predicted to account for around 22% of all new light-vehicle sales.

Volumes of BEVs are forecast to grow 5.4% and take a 68.9% share of the EV market. However, EV Volumes forecasts 3.7% growth for PHEVs, as they offer a stepping stone to full electrification. In addition, incentive changes mean BEVs have lost their price advantage in markets such as Germany, for example.

This forecast does not factor in the import duties that the European Commission is proposing to apply on BEVs imported from China. Talks between both governments are continuing, with Chinese authorities looking to avoid tariffs of up to 38.1% being applied to vehicles imported into Europe. Should talks fail, these will apply provisionally from 4 July, with final tariffs confirmed in November of this year.

Compared to the previous forecast, EV Volumes has slightly lowered its 2024 volume and share expectations for EVs in Europe. This is partially because of the lower overall market outlook, but is mainly due to the sluggish growth across multiple markets and the lacklustre recovery of BEV demand in Germany in particular.

The European market share of EVs is now forecast to reach 25.9% in 2025, down from the previous forecast of 29.4%. In 2030, this will grow to 62.2% (originally 67.3%) and will reach 94.1% in 2035, a slight reduction from the previous 94.5% figure.

The forecast for 2035 includes some tolerance for timing interpretations of the continent’s zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate. It also allows for exemptions for ICE vehicles that may be deemed unsuitable for full electrification.

LCV Growth

New LCVs still lag far behind in EV uptake. Yet their 49% growth in 2023 is encouraging, especially compared to the 16% growth for passenger cars.

High prices compared to diesel LCVs are still a barrier to adoption. However, key new products such as the Ford Transit, Renault Trafic, and VW Transporter BEVs, will bolster demand. Upgraded versions of the small, medium, and large electric vans offered by Stellantis brands will also improve volumes.

EV Volumes now forecast that the EV share of LCVs will climb from 7.5% in 2023, which itself was up from 5.8% in 2022, to an 8.6% hold of the market in 2024. This will increase to an 11.8% share in 2025, with the technology taking 53.4% in 2030.

Long term, the ZEV mandate for 2035 will further accelerate the transition to pure-electric LCVs. The forecast assumes that all Western and Central European markets will follow the directive, allowing for some exemptions and grace periods. Therefore, the ZEV share does not reach 100% in 2035, but EV Volumes forecast a 93.3% share, compared to 94.2% for passenger cars.

The role of e-fuels and other CO2-neutral ICE fuels is still uncertain but will likely be limited to niche concepts, also depending on national tax regimes. EV Volumes also expect the deployment of hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles (FCEVs) to be limited in light commercial vehicles, with their share peaking at just 0.02%.

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How to recharge Europe’s battery-electric vehicle market

What condition is Europe’s battery-electric vehicle (BEV) market in, can adoption be accelerated and could Chinese brands recharge uptake? Autovista Group experts consider these questions in a new webinar with Autovista24 editor Tom Geggus.

Concerns and questions are currently swirling around Europe’s BEV market. Is this what the adoption of a new technology should look like? What part must infrastructure play in supporting consumer confidence? Do new brands from Asia present an opportunity or a threat?

Autovista Group experts set out to answer these questions in a new webinar: How to recharge Europe’s battery-electric vehicle market. Panellists included Dr Christof Engelskirchen, chief economist at Autovista Group, Christoph Ruhland, director of business development at Autovista Group and Christian Schneider, director of content at EV Volumes.

Taking stock of the markets

Schneider explained that different European new-car markets are witnessing BEV adoption at varying rates. For example, Norway has long led the charge on BEVs, with all-electric vehicles making up the vast majority of registrations in the first quarter of this year.

Meanwhile, other major markets such as Spain and Italy are still struggling to drive registrations. In the first three months of 2024, these countries remained in the early-adopter phase, with BEVs making up a relatively small percentage of deliveries.

Transitioning BEVs towards the mass market will require continued effort from major industry players, Schneider explained. This includes the likes of governments, OEMs and utility companies. In countries where governmental support for BEVs has been withdrawn, the powertrain’s market share has been noticeably affected.

Meanwhile, the situation on the used market is even more severe. There are little to no incentives for used-car buyers to switch from internal-combustion engine models to BEVs. Sales of new models have been driven by attractive conditions for fleets and company car buyers. However, there is less on offer to attract private used-car buyers, which presents an issue for the models being de-fleeted.

Autovista Group’s Residual Value Intelligence tool confirms the continual pressure being experienced by all powertrains. However, this pressure is being felt far more acutely by BEVs and PHEVs as supply increases but demand fails to keep pace.

How to accelerate market adoption

Engelskirchen pointed out that battery health certificates could help drive used-BEV adoption. By certifying the condition of a used battery, consumer confidence can be bolstered while sellers see greater remarketing results. This will also ensure better BEV treatment as current owners modify their driving style and charging behaviours to ensure better test results.

Another way of supporting BEV uptake across the new and used-car markets is ensuring the development of public charging infrastructure. While the number of charging points has been growing in recent years, this figure has slowed more recently, Schneider commented.

The spread of charging infrastructure has not been even either, with different countries seeing varying levels of development. The number of BEVs per charging station recorded in 2023 was high in Sweden, Denmark and Norway, but far lower in Spain, Italy and the Netherlands.

Will China recharge Europe’s BEV market?

Brands from China could help recharge Europe’s BEV market. These companies have made substantial investments in the research and development of electric-vehicle technology. This includes battery systems, charging capabilities and autonomous driving features, Ruhland outlined.

Alongside this, these carmakers can offer BEVs at a comparatively competitive price point. This could generate more momentum behind the mass-market uptake of all-electric cars, as well as stimulating greater competitiveness.

Chinese brands have employed a range of strategies to enter the European market. This includes acquiring known brands and utilising their reputation and customer loyalty. Building production sites in Europe is another method, which allows these carmakers to tailor their products to local tastes. Setting up European sales operations is the most common approach, however. With a European sales headquarters, brands can be built up locally with specific marketing campaigns.

One of the major hurdles for new entrants is standing out in an already saturated market, alongside other incoming brands. To overcome this, carmakers can take a number of different approaches. This can include emphasising BEV innovation, value for money, quality, customer experience and differentiated design.

To find out more about Europe’s BEV market and Autovista Group’s products and services head over to the webinar landing page.

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Is bigger really better for BEV batteries?

Autovista24

Bigger batteries may remedy range anxiety, but smaller power-storage units can reduce costs and purchase prices of battery-electric vehicles (BEVs). Dr Christof Engelskirchen, chief economist of Autovista Group (part of J.D. Power), explores the economies of smaller batteries.

As the BEV market develops, with carmakers introducing new models, not all brands offer a variety of battery-size options. This is a valid approach, as focusing on larger power-storage units helps to tackle both range anxiety and charging anxiety.

This means peace of mind and conveys an impression of being future-proof. This is especially true as charging infrastructure continues to develop across Europe, where it currently may struggle to meet demand.

Few will question the logic of choosing a larger battery, while selecting a smaller one may raise some eyebrows. But is it rational to opt for the biggest battery unit available, especially as it is the most expensive BEV component? The short answer is ‘it depends’.

To understand whether bigger really is better, some facts need to be unpacked. This can be achieved by comparing the standard and the long-range variants of the Tesla Model Y and Volvo EX30, with a focus on the rear-wheel drive (RWD) single-motor variants.

The Model Y was not only the best-selling car in Europe last year, but it also took the global title. Meanwhile, the recently introduced EX30 emphasises mass-market compatibility, in a vehicle segment where this has been absent for so long.

The cost of greater range

When comparing online transaction prices for new vehicles after fees and applicable company discounts, the initial challenge for bigger batteries is revealed. An additional range of approximately 140km costs between €3,400 and €4,500 (net). This price increase is smaller for Tesla than for Volvo, both in absolute and relative terms.

As a side note, the Model Y is attractively priced, and Volvo needs to offer an additional discount of €2,100 (net) to maintain the required distance between transaction prices. The larger Model Y also offers three times the boot volume of the EX30, while also being around 50cm longer and nearly 10cm taller and wider.

Transaction price difference by battery size for Tesla Model Y and Volvo EX30 in Germany

BEV batteries
Source: Manufacturer websites and Autovista Group analysis.

Note: € values are net (exclude VAT). Data from May 2024.

Surprisingly, the WLTP consumption figures do not differ much between each model’s battery variants. In fact, the long-range versions seem to operate more efficiently. Both carmakers use different battery technologies according to the intended range. Their smaller batteries use a lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) chemistry, while the larger units use a lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide (NMC) makeup. This is the primary contributing factor to the different battery efficiencies.

Small and economic?

So, how are battery sizes handled in leasing contracts of 36 months and 60,000km? Under its business leasing offer, Tesla charges a moderate €42 (net) per month for more range. This takes the range of the Model Y from an already considerable 455km (WLTP) to 600km (WLTP).

Across one year this accumulates to €504 of additional cost, and roughly €1,500 over three years. This is less than half of what would be paid if the vehicle was purchased outright.

Care by Volvo, the carmaker’s long-term rental and subscription service model, sits at a monthly premium of €59. This adds up to €708 a year and approximately €2,100 over three years. Under this plan, the EX30 goes from a lower range of 337km (WLPT) to a solid 476km (WLTP).

Despite these relatively small uplifts, the price still clearly points towards the smaller battery being the more economical choice. However, it is important to consider how usage impacts utilisation costs. When driving in higher-mileage scenarios, BEVs with a smaller range may require substantially more frequent public charging stops, which are more expensive and less convenient.

Testing with two scenarios

Two scenarios can be used to simulate these economic conditions, alongside certain assumptions.

In the first scenario, 80% of the annual 20,000km mileage covers short trips where all charging takes place at home or the workplace. Here, electricity costs are comparatively lower, at €0.25 per kWh (net) in Germany.

The remaining 20% of the annual mileage (4,000km) is made up of long-distance trips. This consists of four short weekend or business trips of 500km each and two larger journeys of 1,000km each.

It is assumed that the driver charges the vehicle to 100% ahead of each trip. Additionally, public charging points are only used when the remaining range reaches 40km, at which point the battery is recharged to 80%. This makes sense in terms of convenience, as it takes roughly the same time to charge from 20% to 80% as it does from 80% to 100%. The costs of fast charging at public infrastructure are set at €0.5 per kWh (net) in Germany.

For the sake of simplicity, real-life ranges are assumed to be 80% of the respective WLTP values for short distances and 65% for longer journeys, conducted at much faster speeds. These assumptions are in line with real-life consumption levels which have been observed, recorded and published in the public domain. Regardless, the overall results are not sensitive to these assumptions.

In the second scenario, the driving pattern is modified so that half of the mileage, 10,000km, is spent on longer trips. This equates to 10 weekend or business trips of 500km each and five longer journeys of 1,000km. The remaining assumptions are unchanged.

Smaller cost savings

Under these scenarios, public-charging costs come down when switching from a short-range model to a long-range one. This is the case for both the Model Y and the EX30, however, the savings are not as significant as some might hope.

The annual cost savings accrued due to less public charging is only between €59 and €62 a year in scenario one and between €149 and €154 in scenario two. Savings partially erode as the car still needs to be charged, albeit at more affordable domestic or company wallboxes.

Annual cost difference when moving from a standard to a long-range BEV in Germany

electric vehicle
Source: Manufacturer websites, Autovista Group research and analysis.

Note: Leasing rates and charging costs are in € and net (exclude VAT). Vehicles are held for 36 months and the annual mileage is 20,000km. The starting point of ‘lease rate short range’ comes from manufacturer websites and represents the annualised monthly business rate. To balance this comparison, the Tesla Model Y has €111 added each month for insurance. This is because the carmaker does not include insurance in its offer, but Volvo does. Data is from May 2024.

Overall, with net cost savings, it is still more economical to opt for the smaller battery in both scenarios. This means the total cost of ownership (TCO) advantages remain for the smaller battery versions after simulating the more expensive stops at public chargers.

There is a noticeable difference between Tesla and Volvo. The annual TCO difference for the Model Y is only between €406 and €475 in both scenarios. This is because of the smaller premium required for the long-range model versus the standard-range version when compared to Volvo. For the EX30, the TCO difference is between €614 and €669 per year when choosing the larger battery over the standard one.

Calculating convenience

The added convenience of fewer public charging stops must also be considered for those BEVs with a bigger battery.

The standard Tesla Model Y offers such a good range it can handle the use case of scenario one quite well, requiring only 16 stops a year. Meanwhile, the long-range version reduces the annual number of stops from 16 to 10.

Here, the case for a smaller battery may be economically apparent, but for many people, the long-range version offers added flexibility at a small additional cost.

The longer-range variant of the Volvo EX30 reduces the number of stops more significantly from 26 to 16. Therefore, the added convenience of the longer-range version is considerable, but then so is the price premium. This makes it a tie in terms of choice, with budget and actual use case the likely deciding factors.

In scenario two, the standard-range Model Y makes 40 stops a year at public chargers. This will be enough to push most customers towards the long-range version. The TCO disadvantage of the bigger battery comes down to only €406 a year, or €27 per saved stop.

Similarly for the EX30, investing the additional €614 a year in scenario two would make sense. This would bring the stops down to 40 from 65 with the standard range version and costs €25 per saved stop.

A balanced decision

So, if the price or leasing rate increase for a larger battery is small, going big will mean an extra layer of convenience and security. This also reduces stress on developing infrastructure, with more stops requiring more chargers.

If the cost uplift is more substantial, smaller batteries will still deliver, while remaining the more economical choice. This is especially true if shorter trips define a person’s driving pattern.

However, when longer journeys underline a person’s driving pattern, it will be worth assessing the number of stops needed with the given battery variant. This will ensure a well-balanced decision between added costs, extra flexibility and greater convenience.

This content is brought to you by Autovista24.

Global EV growth forecast in 2024, but challenges remain

Despite current market conditions leading to amendments in global electric vehicle (EV) forecasts, the market is still expected to improve. Neil King, head of forecasting at EV Volumes (part of J.D. Power), presents the outlook with Autovista24 special content editor Phil Curry.

The global light-vehicle market, made up of passenger cars and light-commercial vehicles (LCVs) grew by 10% year on year in 2023. However, the numbers were still below those seen in 2019. This highlights the ongoing impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, supply shortages and the cost-of-living crisis.

While there was double-digit growth in Europe and North America (combining the US and Canada), gains were more subdued in China and the non-Triad region. Retail sales in China recovered from a sharp decline in 2022. The country’s government is seeking to stimulate an economy suffering from a struggling property sector, a lacklustre stock market, and high youth unemployment.

Global EV demand to improve

EV demand, made up of battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), continues to grow despite economic currents. Global volumes grew 35% year-on-year in 2023 to reach 14.2 million units, equating to a market share of 16.7%, up from 13.6% in 2022. For the first time since 2020, PHEVs (up 47%) grew faster than BEVs (up 30%).

In 2024, EV Volumes expects 16.6 million EV sales, equating to a 19.2% share of the light-vehicle market. Therefore, plug-in deliveries are forecast to grow by 17%, while the total market is only expected to improve by 1%.

However, the global EV share forecast has been lowered, with EV Volumes expecting 1.2 million fewer sales than in its previous outlook. This is largely due to a more cautious prediction for China and the slow development of EV uptake in North America. This translates to around 470,000 fewer EV sales in each region compared to previous outlooks.

Additionally, EV forecasts for Europe and the non-Triad region are each around 130,000 units lower. In the case of Europe, subsidy cuts have led to expectations of a lower EV share.

In the non-Triad region, the downgrade is due to weaker overall market growth. This stems from economic fragility in Japan and Korea, which is having a knock-on effect across other Asian economies.

Lower future volume increase

Global EV sales volumes are forecast to more than double in the coming years. According to the latest data, this will take levels from 14 million units in 2023 to 29 million units in 2027.

Yet the global EV share is predicted to be lower between 2024 to 2028 than previously expected, reaching 22.6% in 2025 and 35% in 2028. From 2029, the EV share is expected to be higher than previously forecast.

This is due to healthier assumptions of EV uptake in the non-Triad region. Alongside this, there has also been a correction to historic light-vehicle sales*, which has increased the EV share in the region.

Between 2023 and 2027, EV Volumes forecast that annual traction battery demand will rise from 0.7TWh to 1.9TWh, up 163%. This will be driven by the desire for longer electric ranges in all vehicle segments. An additional influence is the electrification of the full-size SUV and pickup markets in North America.

However, the trend for larger batteries is slowing as efficiency increases. Lower costs also facilitate their use in smaller vehicles, the electrification of which has been hindered by comparatively tighter profit margins.

Challenges in Europe

In Europe, the new light-vehicle market grew by 13.9% year-on-year in 2023. The sector was aided by improving supply, which reduced order backlogs created by component shortages in previous years.

The EV market faced challenges in several countries throughout last year. France saw its subsidies reduced. Meanwhile, Germany ended incentives for business purchases in September, and abruptly for private buyers in December. Even Norway, considered the leading market in Europe for EVs, announced it was ending VAT exemption for plug-ins.

Nevertheless, EV registrations in Europe increased by 17.3% year-on-year in 2023, to 3.15 million units. This allowed the technology to take a joint 21.3% share of all light-vehicle deliveries, up from 20.7% in the previous year.

There are more challenges ahead in 2024 as order intake is subdued because of high-interest rates. With no more incentives in Germany, the country’s EV market will experience its first full year without financial aid for buyers. In France, subsidies for company buyers have now concluded and EV models exported into Europe are no longer eligible for incentives.

EV Volumes expects European EV deliveries to grow by 18% year on year, to 3.7 million units, accounting for around a quarter of all light-vehicle sales. The growth will be predominantly driven by BEVs, volumes of which are forecast to grow by 23.5% this year, but PHEVs are also forecast to improve in 2024, with 5.6% growth.

The European market share of BEVs and PHEVs combined is forecast to reach 29% in 2025 and 58% in 2029.

China growth continues

In China, the EV boom continued in 2022 with the powertrain’s share rising to 26.7% from 13.9% in 2021. Volumes of EVs, including LCVs, ended close to 6.2 million units. This was a year-on-year increase of 82% in a total light-vehicle market that contracted by 5.3%.

Growth was less dramatic in 2023, at 36%, but with 8.4 million units delivered, the EV share climbed to 33.9%. PHEVs had a stronger share of the EV market, from 18% in 2021 to 25% in 2022. This continued in 2023 with PHEVs accounting for 32% of EV registrations in the year. This was largely caused by the high sales growth of BYD PHEVs and Li Auto EREV SUVs.

Unsurprisingly, other Chinese OEMs are rolling out countless new PHEVs, which will exacerbate their appeal. EV Volumes forecasts that this powertrain will capture a higher share of the EV market in 2024. However, this is mitigated by a BEV price war, meaning the all-electric share is expected to gain ground from 2025 onwards.

Given the challenging economic situation in China, the government is seeking to encourage consumers to spend instead of save. This will support state-owned OEMs in the process, but not necessarily their EV offerings. EV Volumes has reduced the plug-in share outlook, especially in the coming years.

However, in the medium and long term, the China forecast is not restricted by target shares or capacity limitations. EVs are forecast to account for 43% of light-vehicle sales in 2025, rising to 62% in 2029.

Uncertainty apparent in North America

North American EV sales increased by 48% year-on-year in 2022, following a 100% improvement in 2021.

The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) supports further EV growth in the US. The incentives for producing vehicles and batteries in the also region remain strong but place roadblocks in front of imported brands and models. Furthermore, recent strikes by the Union of Auto Workers (UAW) highlighted the risks that EVs may pose to domestic OEMs and US jobs in the automotive sector.

With 1.64 million units sold in 2023, the EV share of light-vehicle sales rose to 9.4%, up from 7.2% in 2022. The overall market recovery continues, albeit at a slower pace than previously anticipated. Therefore, EV Volumes has lowered its EV share and volume forecasts in the short term as OEMs push back on electrified versions of popular models.

The forecast has also been lowered in the medium and longer term as the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has approved emissions targets that are lower than originally proposed.

OEMs must have a light-duty fleet average of 170g CO2 per mile in 2027, compared to 152g per mile in the draft proposal. This lowers to 85g per mile in 2032, instead of the proposed 82g per mile. The final targets also call for a 49% reduction in emissions by 2032 compared to 2026, instead of the 56% proposed.

The IRA is assumed to stay effective until 2032, but even that could change depending on the outcome of the US election. EV Volumes currently forecasts that the plug-in share of light-vehicle sales will reach 12.7% in 2024, then 16.5% in 2025 and 35% in 2029.

BEVs are expected to account for 81% of the EV market this year, rising to 85% in 2025 and 93% in 2029.

Tricky conditions in non-Triad markets

EV numbers in the non-Triad markets rose sharply for the third consecutive year in 2023, although this was compared to low figures. Demand is increasingly supported by a wider availability of products, higher incentives and lower import tariffs in some countries.

The recovery of the wider light-vehicle market since 2020, which gathered pace again in 2023, has also supported volume growth. Combined EV sales in the non-Triad markets amounted to 292,000 units in 2021, reached 554,000 units in 2022, and exceeded one million units in 2023, with a yearly growth of 91% and 81% respectively.

Volumes of EVs grew by more than 100% in some markets last year. This includes Australia, Thailand, Brazil, Turkey, Malaysia, and Mexico. Meanwhile, India and Japan saw growth of above 50%. Nevertheless, the combined EV share was only 3.5% in 2023, albeit up from 2.1% in 2022. Markets such as India, Japan, Brazil, and Mexico still sell very few EVs relative to their size.

This also pulls down the global average EV share, as the non-Triad countries accounted for a third of global light-vehicle sales last year. EV Volumes has broadly maintained its EV share forecast in the coming years, but has increased the potential in the longer term with India incentivising localised EV production and Japan forging ahead with the development of solid-state batteries.

For 2024, an EV share of 4.9% in the non-Triad countries is expected, with around 1.4 million sales, boosted by various factors such as discounting in Thailand, for example. The EV share is predicted to rise to 6.5% in 2025 and 14.5% in 2029, trailing global EV adoption by about six years. Many developing countries impose high tariffs on vehicle imports and unless they exempt EVs, they will need to develop their own EV industry to catch up with adoption in mature markets.

*Global light-vehicle market volumes have been corrected historically as they previously included double-counting of Chinese exports. This also inflated the non-Triad total market volumes, which are calculated by subtracting Europe and Northern America volumes from the global volumes. This means EV Volumes EV shares are higher globally and in the non-Triad region, both historically and in the forecast, than previously reported. However, the volumes of EVs are unaffected.

How important are BEV battery health certificates?

Autovista24

The value of a battery-electric vehicle (BEV) can be determined largely by one component. This makes certifying the quality of this part essential to reselling. Autovista24 editor Tom Geggus considers the development and importance of battery health certificates.

Remarketing an internal-combustion engine (ICE) vehicle inevitably involves referencing the model’s age and mileage. For buyers and sellers, these two numbers bring a car’s history, value and potential into focus.

However, these signposts are blurred for BEVs. The standard measures of time and distance are less informative, with next to no indicators about driving or charging behaviour. This makes a battery a black box of information.

‘Essential information regarding the battery status of an electric vehicle is not readily accessible to customers. It is not displayed on the screen, nor can it be automatically retrieved from the battery management system,’ Dr Marcus Berger, CEO of battery diagnostics company Aviloo told Autovista24.

‘Consequently, the electric vehicle battery is unfortunately often considered a black box. Transparency in the remarketing process is crucial for its smooth operation.’

Battery black box

This lack of information creates concern in the used-car market. Both dealers and consumers can struggle to identify BEVs that have been treated optimally. All-electric cars have felt this impact across European used-car markets.

BEV residual values (RVs) have been falling in Austria, Germany, Italy, Switzerland and the UK. These countries saw RVs of three-year-old BEVs drop year on year in absolute and percentage terms during January, February and March. Spain has seen values increase, however, all-electric models remain difficult to sell in the country.

As an indicator of demand, used BEV stock days far exceeded that of all other major powertrains across Austria, Germany, Italy, Spain, Switzerland and the UK. Looking at active adverts from the last 12 months on average, only plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) came close. Meanwhile, diesel, petrol and full hybrids (HEVs) took far less time to sell.

Certificate clarity

In a report published in February, the UK House of Lords acknowledged this lack of certainty around electric vehicles (EVs). It highlighted that consumer confidence in the used-car market is being undermined by uncertainty about battery health.

‘We welcome industry’s work to develop a battery health standard that would give confidence to consumers. The government should accelerate its collaboration with industry to develop a battery health standard that is objective and reliable,’ the report reads.

'EVs unfortunately still lose almost 10% more value after three years than combustion engine cars. Independent battery certificates will bring the values of used EVs to the same level as combustion engine cars,’ Berger said.

Autovista Group underscored how battery health certificates can positively influence used-BEV values in a joint whitepaper. Testing can verify the condition of a used battery in the immediate term, while a move to routine certification promotes better treatment of BEVs more broadly.

Surveying more than 2,000 drivers in the UK, the Green Finance Institute (GFI) found that battery certificates and guarantees held high potential. Respondents ranked these as the two leading solutions that would encourage drivers to buy a used electric car.

The potential of these products was also recognised by dealerships. ‘All of the 21 dealerships that contributed to this report agreed that a battery health certificate or battery value guarantee would provide confidence that the remaining battery health is adequate when selling a used EV,’ the GFI stated.

Transparency for traders

Berger highlighted the indispensable nature of transparency and market regulation when it comes to sustainable long-term development. This is something battery-health certificates could deliver, opening the door to faster and more valuable sales for used-car sellers.

These advantages would be accompanied by enhanced credibility, a positive reputation and strengthened client relationships. This means the benefits of battery certificates would be widespread across the automotive sector.

Berger pointed out that carmakers also need a strong used-EV market to meet sales targets. Meanwhile, customers stand to benefit from the security provided by more detailed and reliable vehicle data accompanied by certificates.

In-person tests

Providing in-person tests, Altelium looks to illuminate an area shrouded in complexities. Alex Johns, the company’s partnership lead, explained to Autovista24 that unpacking battery health is a matter of making analysis meaningful to consumers and dealers.

Depending on vehicle type, Altelium’s battery assessment can be carried out on a stationary BEV via a plug-in diagnostic device or API charge testing. By moving past overly-complicated feedback which can be of little practical use at the point of purchase, these results are simplified and visual. This can go a long way in combatting BEV concerns.

‘There are things which obviously worry people,’ Johns said. ‘Range, we can answer those questions. How long the battery is going to last or what the health of the battery is, we can answer those questions and we can put money behind it to give you proper reassurance.’

Peace of mind

Being able to analyse battery performance allows Altelium to provide peace of mind. Carmakers can provide BEV warranties up to approximately 10 years or 100,000 miles, often covering breakdown and degradation. But Johns explained that under these warranties the degradation trigger point is often set at 70%.

‘Nearly all of them have their trigger points at 70% state of health. That is a long way down,’ he said. ‘You will not get to 70% state of health until things have been going wrong for a long time. So, we have come up with one which we call the sleep easy warranty.’

This 12-month cover provides additional reassurance for used-EV purchasers. If the battery health drops by a set percentage in the first year, Altelium issues a fixed cash settlement. The company also provides extended warranties for up to three years after the OEM’s warranty expires.

So, these tests can illuminate important battery information. Alongside this they can form a foundation of financial support, providing used buyers with even more confidence.

App-enabled analysis

Another method of analysis could require little more than a smartphone. Patrick Cresswell, managing director of ClearWatt told Autovista24 that in shaping a solution, his company was focused on creating an agnostic product. The resulting mobile app was designed to benefit all BEVs from day one.

‘We launched the first iteration of our products about a year ago,’ Cresswell said. ‘Since then, we have tested thousands of journeys. We currently have testers across four continents and there is a lot of international demand for what we are doing. We have also launched some very key pilots with the likes of Octopus Electric Vehicles, Motability and others.’

After installing the ClearWatt app, users enter their car model and license plate. Three drives will then need to be completed with the app running. By recording the state of charge at the beginning and end of these journeys, ClearWatt can assess the battery’s health while controlling for other variables such as environmental conditions.

‘What we have essentially built is a mobile telematics device which in very high-frequency bursts, is giving us all of the information we need about driving style, speed, acceleration profiles,’ Cresswell added. ‘We are also getting elevation of the roads, temperature conditions and wind speed and direction.’

Controlling these factors enables analysis of a BEV’s miles-per-kWh performance, where efficiency reveals the state of battery health. This is then compiled into a graded report, enabling greater confidence during the selling process.

Meeting regulations

Battery tests and certificates will not only bolster confidence in used BEVs but may also prove essential when it comes to new regulations. Recently adopted by the European Council, the Euro 7 emission standards look to set battery durability requirements for BEVs.

Under these proposed rules, the battery in an electric car must maintain a minimum of 80% of its capacity in its first five years, or up to 100,000km. After eight years or 160,000km, these units will be required to retain 72% of their original charge capacity.

Meanwhile, from February 2027, the EU Battery Regulation will require passports for EV and industrial power storage units over 2kWh. This digital record will contain key component information including a unique identifier, as well as the battery’s basic characteristics including type and model.

This passport will also need to provide statistics detailing performance and durability. It will need to be updated throughout the battery’s lifecycle by those repairing or repurposing the unit. This information will need to be shared with the public, regulators and service providers who deal with batteries at the end of their life.

A recent study published by Battery Pass assessed the value of the EU Battery Passport. The benefit to RV assessment was among the consortium’s 12 considered used cases. It confirmed that historic performance and durability information made available through the passport could improve the RV determination process.

This would be the result of reducing the need for technical tests and improving assessment accuracy. This would enable decision-making between second-life and recycling options. So, by making performance assessments mandatory, regulations like these could greatly benefit not only the understanding of battery durability but also BEV RVs.

As regulations require greater durability and companies provide better status insights, the importance of battery certificates can only increase.

This content is brought to you by Autovista24.

Tesla dominates European EV market in February

Electric vehicle (EV) registrations in Europe recorded double-digit growth in February, as Tesla dominated the market. José Pontes, data director at EV Volumes, evaluates the figures with Tom Hooker, Autovista24 journalist.

A total of 202,542 EVs took to the road in Europe during February, recording a growth of 10% year on year. This meant battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) accounted for 20% of deliveries in the overall market in February and the year-to-date.

BEVs achieved a 13% share of all passenger-car registrations during the month. The powertrain saw deliveries rise 10% year on year, despite a lack of mass-market EVs. Models that may help boost the sector, such as the Renault 5 and Citroen e-C3, are not yet available in Europe.

Additionally, many markets are still suffering from the ending of incentives. The negative incentive impact is expected to ease in the second quarter of 2024. However, significant BEV growth is not predicted until the second half of the year.

Elsewhere, PHEVs registrations increased 9% year on year. Meanwhile, hybrids (including full and mild powertrains) enjoyed a surge of 24%. The technology accounted for 29% of all new-car registrations in February, meaning almost half of the European market is now electrified.

EV and hybrid growth has come at the expense of diesel, which endured a delivery drop of 5% compared to one year ago, holding 12% of the market. This contrasts with its 50% share in 2015.

Total Tesla domination

Once again, the Tesla Model Y was the best-selling EV in Europe, thanks to its 19,946 registrations in February. The mid-size crossover is expected to post similar results in the next few quarters, although it is not predicted to significantly improve on current volumes.

The Model Y’s biggest European market was Germany (5,482 units) followed at a distance by France (1,982 units). Also achieving four-digit demand was the UK (1,759 units), Norway (1,749 units), Belgium (1,737 units), and Italy (1,252 units).

EV
Chart: Autovista24 / Source: EV-Volumes.com / Created with Datawrapper

The Tesla Model 3 secured second, meaning the carmaker took the top two positions in the February best-sellers table. The sedan reached 8,120 deliveries, as demand was boosted by its recent refresh. It is expected to limit volumes for the Model Y in future months.

However, the Model 3 could be challenged for its runner-up position if the Volkswagen (VW) ID.4 recovers and the Renault 5 has a strong production ramp-up. The sedan saw strong performances in the UK (1,410 units), France (1,216 units) and Portugal (762 units).

Positives for Peugeot

Third place went to the Peugeot e-208, which posted its best registration tally since September 2023, with 5,319 models taking to the road. The hatchback has struggled in the last few months following its refresh. Yet, strong demand is now expected after the end of the e-208’s production constraints.

The model is making a big push in its domestic market, as France (4,132 units) was responsible for over 75% of deliveries. The Netherlands (326 units) and the Italy (173 units) followed far behind.

In fourth was the Volvo XC40, reaching 5,034 registrations. The BEV version accounted for the majority of this volume, with 4,808 units. The SUV is not yet being cannibalised by its younger sibling, the EX30.

The strongest market for the model was Germany (1,367 units), while Belgium (636 units) and Sweden (561 units) also had positive results.

The MG4 finished in fifth, thanks to 4,990 deliveries. Its main markets were Germany (1,503 units), France (1,491 units) and the UK (850 units).

Valiant Volvo

The Volvo XC60 PHEV came in seventh (4,251 units), becoming the best-selling plug-in hybrid model in February.

Its sibling, the Volvo EX30, made its first top 10 appearance, reaching ninth with a record 3,675 registrations. This meant three models from the Swedish brand featured in the top 10. The compact crossover is expected to continue climbing the best-sellers chart, with multiple top-five presences likely in the next two quarters.

Elsewhere, the BMW iX1 had a strong February in 11th place, posting 3,540 deliveries. Just behind, the Porsche Cayenne PHEV achieved its best-ever result, with 3,516 registrations placing it in 12th.

This performance was helped by a refresh that improved performance, including a bigger battery. The German SUV was February’s best-selling full-size model and was the second most popular PHEV.

Finally, the VW ID.3 (2,687 units) and ID.4 (2,538 units) returned to the table in February, in 19th and 20th place respectively.

Model Y magic

Looking at the year-to-date table, the Tesla Model Y maintained its lead, thanks to 31,410 deliveries. The crossover doubled the deliveries of the Model 3 in second (14,815 units).

Europe’s top twenty EV sales by model

European EV market
Below, the Volvo XC40 jumped two positions into third with 9,585 registrations. The SUV sits over 5,000 units behind the current runner-up and more than 400 deliveries ahead of the Skoda Enyaq in fourth place (9,124 units).
Thanks to a strong February, the Peugeot e-208 rose five positions to sixth with 8,594 registrations. The hatchback sits just one unit behind the Audi Q4 e-Tron and is predicted to continue climbing up the table over the next couple of months.
Meanwhile, the Mercedes-Benz GLC PHEV moved into 11th (6,342 units). In 14th, the Volvo EX30 (5,927 units) was a new entry to the year-to-date chart and is expected to join the top 10 soon. Another new model in the table was the BMW iX1 in 15th (5,897 units).

Elsewhere, the Renault Megane EV jumped up two positions to 17th (5,439 units). Below, the Porsche Cayenne PHEV joined the table in 18th (5,281 units).

Last year’s third-place finisher, the VW ID.4, was absent from the top 20 due to a slow start to 2024. March could see the crossover return to the table, along with its sibling, the ID.3.

Tesla on top

Tesla was comfortably Europe’s best-selling EV brand in February, accounting for 11.6% of all plug-in registrations, up 2.5 percentage points from January. BMW came second, with a 10.2% market share down marginally from the previous month.

Tesla

Mercedes-Benz maintained its third position (8.7%, down from 9%), but its lead over Volvo in fourth (8.1%, up from 7.8%) dropped.

Audi lost significant ground in fifth, dropping 1.1 percentage points to a 7.2% share. This meant all of the top five EV carmakers in February were premium brands. VW, the most popular mainstream manufacturer, finished in sixth (5.1%, up from 5%).

With brands grouped together under their parent companies, the VW Group kept its commanding lead but dropped one percentage point to a 19.5% market share.

In second, Stellantis accounted for 12.2% of all EV deliveries (up from 12%), while Tesla took 11.6% of the market. The US carmaker could challenge for the runner-up spot in March.

Meanwhile, the BMW Group dropped marginal share in fourth (10.9%), as fifth-placed Geely-Volvo continued its rise (9.9%, up from 9.6%). The OEM stretched its advantage over Mercedes-Benz Group in sixth (9.2%, down from 9.5%).

This content is brought to you by Autovista24.

Launch Report: Volvo EX30 presents premium B-SUV package

Autovista24

The Volvo EX30 is a premium entry to the B-SUV segment. Autovista Group (now part of J.D. Power) experts from Austria, France, Spain and the UK, analyse the model with Autovista24 special content editor Phil Curry.

Volvo has long led the charge for sustainable mobility, through both electric drives and the recycling of plastics. It brings this vision to life in the new EX30, a B-segment SUV with a battery-electric drive.

The model allows Volvo to expand into a new marketplace, meeting a growing demand for small electric SUVs. As a premium vehicle in the segment, it allows the carmaker to appeal to buyers looking to stand out from the crowd.

In Autovista24’s latest Launch Report, the EX30’s strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats are benchmarked against its key rivals. New price points are also outlined alongside forecast residual values.

A strong design

The Volvo EX30 is the brand’s smallest SUV. As a battery-electric vehicle (BEV), it enters a market that is becoming increasingly popular and even more congested with models.

So, standing out in the crowd is extremely important, and the Volvo EX30 achieves this. The smooth grille, a feature on BEVs due to the lack of large radiators, allows the brand’s badge to sit prominently.

On each corner, the ‘Thor’s Hammer’ style headlights sweep out and down the sides. This creates a recognisable lighting profile, making the model stand out both during the day and at night.

At 4.23 metres, this is the smallest-ever SUV Volvo has produced but its side profile belies this. The SUV’s tall side panels and doors are lined down toward the front end, providing a feeling of motion even when the vehicle is stationary.

Too minimalistic inside

Inside, the Volvo EX30 sports a minimalistic environment, with few switches and buttons. Instead, most of the auxiliary items are controlled using the 12.9-inch vertically-mounted touchscreen. This also includes the speedometer and driver information.

The EX30 does not have a dedicated driver cluster behind the steering wheel, and there is no heads-up display. This means the driver needs to glance downwards to get any information, and some of this data is buried in a multi-level menu system.

This raises some safety concerns which, for a brand as safety-conscious as Volvo, is a concern. These worries are also noted and addressed by the car itself, which activates audio alerts when it detects the driver’s eyes straying from the road ahead. This forms part of new safety systems designed to monitor driver behaviours.

The seating position is comfortable, and the front of the cabin provides plenty of room. The Geely SEA platform locates batteries beneath the floor, meaning there is no rear tunnel, allowing for more comfort. Yet the position of the front seats does impact legroom for taller passengers in the rear of the car.

Materials are not only of good quality but also contain recycled materials in-line with Volvo’s sustainable attitude. The carmaker states that 17% of the plastics inside the model are recycled, the highest percentage of any Volvo model to date.

Safety remains a priority

For its price point, the EX30 has a high power output, with the single-motor version producing 272hp and a 0-100kph time of 5.6 seconds. The model also offers a decent range, with the entry-level version capable of reaching 340km on a single charge. It provides a comfortable drive, although the twin-motor variant is heavier, which increases the body roll when cornering.

Aside from the issues surrounding the vertical touchscreen display, the EX30 builds on Volvo’s reputation as a brand that cares about safety. Most common assistance systems, such as adaptive cruise control and lane-departure warnings are available as standard across all trim levels. Meanwhile, the driver monitoring system is helpful if attention is diverted away from the road, for reasons other than adjusting the wing mirrors.

Overall, the Volvo EX30 is a strong entry into the B-SUV segment, one which will appeal to premium buyers looking for a smaller BEV to get around. Some of its flaws are fixable via over-the-air updates, and as the carmaker ramps up production, it is likely to take over as the brand’s most popular model.

View the Autovista Group dashboard, which benchmarks the Volvo EX30 in Austria, France, Spain, and the UK. The interactive dashboard presents new prices, forecast residual values, and SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) analysis.

This content is brought to you by Autovista24.

BYD took control of the 2023 Chinese EV market

Electric vehicles (EVs) made up 37% of China’s new-car market in 2023, with BYD and Tesla leading the way. José Pontes, data director at EV-volumes.com, unpacks the results.

The electrification of China’s new-car market has picked up in recent years. Combined registrations of battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), meant the EV market represented 6.3% of deliveries at the end of 2020. BEVs alone accounted for 5.1% of the overall figures.

In 2021 this market share grew to 15% for EVs overall and 12% for BEVs specifically. Across 2022, plug-in models accounted for 30% of deliveries in the country, with all-electric vehicles taking a 22% share. By the end of 2023, the EV share had climbed to 37%, with BEVs generating 25% of overall registrations.

So, while electrification in China has improved, the rate of adoption has slowed over the course of the last three years. However, the world’s largest automotive market can still be expected to reach an EV share of 50% by 2026. By this point, BEVs will make up over a third of the new-car market.

BYD Song tops the chart

The BYD Song was the best-selling EV in China last year, repeating its 2022 success. The model finished 2023 more than 100,000 units ahead of the second-place Tesla Model Y. The US crossover surpassed the BYD Qin Plus at the very end of last year.

However, BYD placed five models within the top six positions of the 2023 chart, while also leading every size category.

The BYD Seagull managed to overtake the Wuling Mini EV in the A-segment. The carmaker’s Dolphin model led the B-segment and its Yuan Plus claimed the C-segment. Lastly, the Song secured the D-segment, and the Han took the E-segment. BYD can be expected to top a lot of categories again this year, however, it will face more competition.

The Li Auto L7 and Aito M7 will likely overtake the BYD Han in the E-segment. In the D-segment, the Tesla Model Y will look to state its claim to the title, as BYD’s models compete against each other in the popular category.

This story is likely to be repeated in the C-segment, with the GAC Aion Y competing with the BYD Yuan (Plus and Up). In the B-segment, the Wuling Bingo could become a fiercer contender for the title.

Comparing the 2023 table with the previous year, the Wuling Mini EV dropped five places to seventh due to increasing competition. The ageing BYD Tang also dropped from eighth in 2022 to 13th.

Noticeably, several small EVs were pushed out of the table this year, such as the Changan Benni EV, the Chery eQ1, and QQ Ice Cream. While Changan could rely on the 14th-place Lumin, Chery lost its two spots without any replacements.

Third title for BYD brand

BYD claimed its third brand title in a row last year, with a 33.8% market share. Since it started making plug-in models in 2008, the carmaker has always made it to one of the two top spots in China’s brand table. This highlights its importance to the electrification of the market.

Meanwhile, Tesla took second place in 2023 with a 7.5% share. This marks a step up for the company following three years of third-place finishes.

Thanks to the success of its Aion S and Y models, GAC Aion secured a top-three spot for the first time last year, coming in third with a 6% market share. This is a positive result for the brand after coming fourth in 2022 thanks to a 4.6% share.

Despite the success of its Wuling Bingo, SGMW experienced a significant loss of volume in 2023, as the Wuling Mini EV dropped by about 200,000 units. The brand ended the year with a 5.8% share, contrasting with the 8% it had in 2022.

Li Auto came fifth with a 4.7% share, replacing Changan with 4.3%. However, the latter still managed to finish in sixth while increasing its market share from 3% in 2022. Geely once again took seventh, but made up 4.1% of the market, up from 3.7% at the end of 2022.

Demand set to drop?

With brands organised under automotive groups, BYD was once again the big winner in China with a market share of 35.5% in 2023. Having taken last year’s title, this is likely to be a repeating trend in the coming years.

However, having also claimed first place in the wider overall market, the OEM is starting to near its demand ceiling, leaving little room for growth in China.

In second, SAIC claimed a 7.5% share. The carmaker claimed this spot in the last month of 2023, managing to push ahead of Tesla by just 518 units. In fourth, Geely–Volvo appears set to keep growing. The company ended 2023 with a market share of 7.1%, a significant increase on 5.7% in 2022.

GAC secured fifth, progressing from a 4.9% share in 2022 to 6.5% last year. Changan climbed up a position from 2022, as its market share grew from 4% to 4.8% last year.

Record end to a record year

EVs finished 2023 with another record month. Registrations of plug-in models grew 46% year on year, reaching a record 980,737 units. BEVs (up 31%) saw slower growth than PHEVs in the month (up 81%).

Yet all-electric models accounted for 63% of the EV market in December, but this was below 2023’s BEV 66% average. This was far below the 74% recorded at the end of 2022.

The up-swing in PHEV popularity can be explained by the increasing availability of range-extended models in China. Most of these models feature a battery with around a 40kWh capacity and fast-charging capabilities.

BYD Song dominates in December

The BYD Song continued its run of record-breaking success in December. Out of its 72,182 total deliveries, its BEV version reached a new best of 14,011 units. This highlights how production is leaning further towards the all-electric powertrain.

This could mark the current generation’s peak. The Song was the best-selling model in December’s overall new-car market in China, but there will be increasing competition moving forward. A large portion of this will come from inside BYD, in the shape of the new Song L and the Sea Lion.

In second place, the Tesla Model Y achieved 60,055 registrations in December, a new record. This is impressive considering the increasing amount of competition in the market, including internally from the refreshed Model 3.

As the standard BYD Song gets cannibalised by its siblings, Tesla Model Y can be expected to regularly feature in first this year, even if its sales do not grow significantly.

The BYD Qin Plus ended December in third with 41,142 deliveries. The midsize model is likely to keep competing for a place in the top five throughout 2024, at least until the new Qin L arrives sometime in the near future.

Thanks to constant updates, the Qin Plus is leading the midsize-sedan category, well ahead of the GAC Aion S and the Tesla Model 3.

With 41,012 registrations, the BYD Seagull came fourth. However, this was not a new best for the model, ending a record-breaking streak and suggesting a slowing of deliveries. With exports expected to start soon, the city-car could see greater success in overseas markets where demand for small and affordable BEVs is high.

The BYD Yuan Plus came fifth in December with 30,799 registrations. While the model did well across 2023, a top-five finish might be difficult to replicate this year. Some of its volume will likely be consumed by the cheaper Yuan Up, due to land in the first half of 2024. However, export markets are now the target for the Yuan Plus, especially in Europe and Southeast Asia.

Li Auto’s record results

Having created a niche within the Chinese market, the Wuling Bingo came sixth in December and could enter the top five soon. The eighth-place Aito M7 (25,545 units) also deserves a mention, with the model continuing to accelerate production.

Highlighting a positive month for Wuling HongGuang, its Mini EV ended the month in ninth with 25,015 registrations, a year best.

All three of Li Auto’s models saw record numbers in December. In 11th, the L7 recorded 20,428 registrations, while the L8 marked 15,013 units. Just below, the flagship L9 posted 14,913 deliveries. This means the carmaker hit over 50,000 units in the month while only being present in the full-size segment.

Elsewhere, the Volkswagen (VW) ID.3 kept rising, reaching a best-ever 13,201 sales. This allowed it to reach 17th place.

Outside the top 20

The refreshed Buick Velite 6, a compact estate car, scored a record 8,614 deliveries in December. Meanwhile, the VW ID.4 registered a year-best result of 8,130 units. Add this to the ID.3’s record performance and the German carmaker seems to be enjoying some success in its largest market.

Geely celebrated the Lynk & Co 08 crossing the 10,000-unit delivery mark for the first time. The model passed this milestone after only four months on the market.

Changan posted good results across its line-up. This included 12,480 registrations for the Lumin and 6,978 units of the SL03. However, the highlight was the S7, which recorded 11,360 deliveries. This included 3,250 BEV registrations, a new record for the model.

BYD hailed the first full sales month of its new upmarket brands, Fangchengbao and Yangwang. Their respective first models, the Bao 5 and the U8, hit 4,388 and 1,593 units each. These new brands can be expected to improve the OEM’s profit margins, which could act as a reserve in the country’s price wars.

While SAIC enjoyed good results with the Wuling Bingo and the Mini EV, the brand’s new model, the Starlight, was a particular cause for celebration. The model reached 11,453 units in December, its third month on the market.

Elsewhere in the SAIC stable, the Roewe D7 was also on the rise, taking 7,285 registrations. Meanwhile, the IM LS6 SUV hit 9,878 deliveries in only its fourth month on the market. However, it seems the model’s demand ceiling has already been hit.