Fuel Type: batterieelektrisch-bev

The Automotive Update: Europe’s leading BEV market, emissions pooling and CES 2025

Early January 2025 has seen a flurry of major automotive news stories, from emissions pooling to CES. Autovista24 journalist Tom Hooker discusses the week’s biggest headlines.

Which European market sold the most battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) in 2024? The UK reconfirms its phase-out date for the sale of new petrol and diesel cars. Carmakers are pooling their emissions figures to navigate CO2 targets.

CES 2025 featured some important new automotive technology. Which model announcements made waves this week? Xpeng and Volkswagen announce a new joint charging network in China. Rolls Royce confirms the expansion of a UK production facility.

Subscribe to the Autovista24 podcast and listen to previous episodes on Spotify, Apple and Amazon Music.

The BEV battle

The 2024 registration results for Germany and the UK have been released. The UK recorded growth across the year while deliveries in Germany declined. This drop was largely due to a slump in the BEV sector, which fell by 27.4%. This meant the country lost its title as Europe’s best-selling BEV market. The UK took the mantle instead, thanks to a 56.8% BEV surge in December.

Meanwhile, the UK government confirmed it will bring the sales ban on new petrol and diesel models back to 2030. This deadline has changed on multiple occasions over the past few years. It was first announced in 2017, with a target date of 2040. In 2020 this was brought forward to 2030, before its push back to 2035, which was confirmed in 2023.

Carmakers are ‘pooling’ CO2 emissions with Tesla and Polestar to meet the EU’s 2025 targets. This means manufacturers with lower electric vehicle (EV) sales can buy emissions credits from other brands that are comfortably meeting targets. Stellantis, Ford, Toyota and Mazda are set to pool with BEV manufacturer Tesla. Meanwhile, Polestar, Volvo Cars, Mercedes-Benz and Smart will pool their emissions together.

CES 2025 and new models

At CES 2025, Sony Honda Mobility confirmed it is now accepting online reservations for its Afeela model. However, the company is currently only accepting orders from customers in California. Honda presented a world premiere of two prototype models from its 0 Series. BMW also revealed new in-cabin technology to improve the user experience. These systems will appear in new models, including the Neue Klasse, from the end of this year. 

Elsewhere, Skoda unveiled its new Enyaq on Wednesday. Renault revealed the interior of its Twingo E-Tech prototype at the Brussels Motor Show. BYD also introduced the BYD Atto 2 to its European lineup. Toyota confirmed its new Urban Cruiser will be rolled out in late summer 2025. Genesis took the covers off its redesigned GV60 crossover SUV, with more details expected in the first quarter of this year.

Xpeng and Volkswagen (VW) announced plans to jointly build one of the largest super-fast charging networks in China. With a target of over 20,000 charging piles operated by the carmakers across 420 cities, both Xpeng and VW customers will be able to access the services.

Rolls Royce revealed expansion plans for its production facility in the UK on Wednesday. More than £300 million (€358 million) will be invested into its Goodwood site. This is the largest financial commitment made to the location since it opened in 2003.

This content is brought to you by Autovista24.

How will a Trump presidency impact the global EV market in 2025 and beyond?

What did 2024 mean for the electric vehicle (EV) market? How will political changes, such as the return of Donald Trump, impact forecasts? Neil King, head of forecasting at EV Volumes, presents the latest global outlook with Autovista24 special content editor Phil Curry.

Once all registration data has been accounted for, the global light vehicle market, made up of passenger cars and light-commercial vehicles, is forecast to grow by 2.2% in 2024.

The latest information from EV Volumes shows a rise from the previous 0.9% forecast in September. This is thanks to improved figures in China, offsetting downgraded results in Europe and the non-Triad region.

The global EV share forecast has been upgraded to 20.4%, accounting for battery-electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs). This is up from 19.7% in September, with EV sales forecasted to grow by 25% across 2024.

The latest forecast of more than 17.7 million EV sales globally in 2024 is just over 800,000 units higher than EV Volumes predicted in September. However, the improved volume outlook for China cannot compensate for the downgrades to Europe, Northern America, and the non-Triad region in the longer term.

The global impact of Trump

The global EV volume outlook is lower in 2028 compared to September’s forecast. Plug-ins are expected to account for 33.9% of all sales worldwide, down from 34.1% in the previous report.

This is due to assumed changes to the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) with Donald Trump resuming the presidency. However, EVs are still forecast to account for 44.8% of light-vehicle sales in 2030, and 69.4% in 2035.

This year, the global electric light-vehicle market is expected to improve by 17%. This is a slowdown in growth as the market adapts to challenges in the year. The market faces tariffs on BEVs built in China and slower consumer demand. However, the share of EVs in the market will improve, up to 23.1%.

The number of EVs in operation is increasing rapidly, but their share of the total light-vehicle fleet is developing with a considerable delay. With 1.3 billion light vehicles on the road today. Assuming normal scrappage rates, EV Volumes forecasts it will take until 2042 for half the global fleet to be electric.

Uncertainty brews in North America

The automotive market recovery in North America is slightly stronger than anticipated by EV Volumes in September. This was aided by the US Federal Reserve cutting interest rates. Levels were lowered by 50 basis points in September, 25 basis points in November, and 50 basis in December.

The 100% import duty applied to EVs from China is not having a dramatic impact. This was anticipated as it only affects a few models. Measures came into effect in the US from 1 August and from 1 October in Canada.

Nevertheless, the rollout of the Volvo EX30 has been postponed until later this year. Additionally, the new Mini Cooper Electric will not land until 2026. Brands producing their EVs in China, such as Lynk&Co, Nio, Smart, and Zeekr, are unlikely to launch in Northern America until they relocate production.

EV Volumes has held its EV share forecast for 2024, at 10.3%, with growth of 13%. However, there is now far greater uncertainty about development of EV adoption in the US after the re-election of Donald Trump as president.

The Trump effect

Four key policy areas could be impacted by Donald Trump’s return. This includes a federal charging standard and funding for the National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure (NEVI).

Consumer tax credits from the IRA and the ‘leasing loophole’ could be affected. Tariffs and import duties on vehicles, even those sourced from Mexico and Canada, could be impacted. California may enforce stricter emissions standards, which have been adopted by several other states.

This means that forecasting EV adoption in North America is especially challenging. EV Volumes will need to make assumptions about policy changes and then quantify their impact.

At present, the assumption is that the IRA leasing loophole will be closed at some point in 2025. Higher import duties will apply from 2026, regardless of a vehicle’s origin. It is also assumed that the IRA will be diluted, if not entirely withdrawn, from 2028.

With these assumptions, EV Volumes expects the electric share of light-vehicle sales in North America to reach 12.8% in 2025. This is down from the 13.5% forecast in September. This share will then reach 39.2% in 2030, a fall from the previous 39.7% forecast. Meanwhile, 2035 will see a share of 70.7%, down from the previous expectation of 71.8%.

BEVs are still expected to account for 78.6% of EV sales in 2024. However, they are now projected to rise to 81.2% in 2025 (down from 82.4% forecast in September). Figures will climb to 93% in 2030 (down from 93.6%), and 96.6% in 2035 (down from 97.2%).

Europe’s challenges continue

The European light-vehicle market has faced considerable challenges in recent years. These seemed to be at an end in 2023 when deliveries improved by 13.9% year on year. However, cost-of-living increases and high interest rates have impacted the market in 2024. EV Volumes forecasts a 1.1% improvement across the full year.

This is slightly lower than the 2.4% improvement in September’s forecast. At 14.9 million units, this falls far short of the 18 million light vehicles registered in Europe in 2019. Moreover, EV Volumes does not see the European market returning to this level during the current forecast horizon, to 2035.

The EV market has seen increased challenges in 2024. Alongside the removal of incentives during 2023 in key markets, there were subsidy changes last year too. France lowered its subsidies last year. It then removed them completely for vehicles imported into Europe in January and for company-car buyers in mid-February. The country reduced the incentive amounts again at the end of November.

In January 2024, Switzerland completely removed the 4% import tax exemption for BEVs. Although Italy introduced a new incentive scheme in May 2024, the total funds dedicated to BEVs were fully depleted within a day.

Tactics at play

New CO2 regulations are due to coming into force in 2025. So, some carmakers may have pushed internal-combustion engine models more towards the end of last year. This would stop these vehicles from counting against their emissions totals for 2024. At the same time, holding back any low and zero-emission models into the first part of this year would reduce fleet CO2 levels.

With import tariffs on BEVs built in China, 2024 has proven difficult for the European EV market. EV Volumes forecasts a 4.8% decline in electric light-vehicle sales in Europe for 2024. This equates to over three million units, just 20.3% of all light-vehicle sales, down on the 21.3% share achieved in 2023, and even lower than the 2022 share of 20.7%.

This year looks brighter, however. Countries such as Spain and Poland are considering the revision of EV purchase subsidies. More affordable BEVs, such as the Citroen e-C3 are rolling out. Furthermore, global EV-leader BYD has expansion plans for the region alongside other Chinese OEMs.

EV Volumes expects a return to growth for the region in 2025. This is thanks to the rollout of new EVs, lower prices, and the implementation of more ambitious CO2 emission targets. EVs are predicted to gain a 24.7% share, as registrations improve by 25.2%. The share will rise to 61.6% in 2030, and 93.3% in 2035.

PHEVs boom in China

EV Volumes has again increased Chinese light-vehicle market forecast for 2024, to just under 25.8 million units. This equates to a 3.9% year-on-year growth. 2022 saw a boom in EV sales in China. This means the targeted 20% share of new-energy vehicles (NEVs) by 2025 was reached three years early.

The country has seen an uptick in PHEV sales over the last few years. The powertrain accounted for 18% of all EVs sold in 2021, claiming a 32% share in 2023. This was largely caused by high sales growth of BYD PHEVs and Li Auto extended-range electric vehicle (EREV) SUVs. Unsurprisingly, other Chinese OEMs are rolling out countless new PHEVs, which exacerbates their appeal.

EV Volumes forecasts that the powertrain capture a 42.5% share of the EV mix in 2024. However, with government plans to support the uptake of cleaner technology, the 2035 share outlook of EVs has been increased. BEVs are expected to gain ground against PHEVs from 2026 onwards.

In 2024, the EV market is forecast to improve by 37.6%, with the technology taking up 44.9% of all registrations in the country. Growth is expected to slow in 2025, with a 10.5% increase equating to around 12.8 million units. This would give the electric light-vehicle market a share of 48.8%.

In 2030, this is forecast to increase to 70.5%, reaching 86% in 2035. Growth rates could suggest even faster electrification of the market. EV Volumes remains cautious as regulatory and economic uncertainties remain high.

Non-Triad trails

Electric light-vehicle numbers in the non-Triad markets rose sharply for the third consecutive year in 2023, albeit from a low base.

Demand is increasingly supported by a wider availability of products, higher incentives, and lower import tariffs in some countries. EV sales in the non-Triad markets exceeded one million units in 2023, with growth of 82%.

The plug-in growth forecast for the region in 2024 has been lowered to 28.1%%, with the overall light-vehicle market expected to rise by just 0.4%. This is due to weakness in countries including Japan and South Korea.

However, governments are introducing measures to strengthen their currencies and stimulate consumer demand. This should support vehicle sales going forward.

Thailand, for example, has lowered the interest rate for automotive loans. The September and November cuts in the US interest rate should also have positive consequences for multiple economies.

EV Volumes slightly reduced the EV share for the year to 4.6%, which translates into just below 1.3 million deliveries. BEVs are, however, expected to perform slightly better in the EV market than anticipated in September.

For 2025, the EV market is expected to improve by 39.3%, equating to over 1.8 million units. The share is predicted to rise to 6.1% this year, before improving to 17% in 2030, and reaching 41.8% in 2035. This means the non-Triad region will trail global EV adoption by five to six years.

Many developing countries impose high tariffs on vehicle imports. Unless they exempt EVs, they will need to develop their own EV industry to catch up with adoption in mature markets.

Go to Autovista24 for related articles.

Does a 0-60 time still matter in the BEV market?

For decades, how quickly a car could go from 0 to 60mph (100kph) has provided an important indicator of desirability. But is this statistic still relevant in an increasingly electrified and varied automotive landscape? James Roberts, Autovista24 web editor, investigates.

Precise data and statistics are central to the automotive industry. When marketing a new vehicle, many carmakers highlight key metrics that help promote performance, economy, and durability. One long-standing measurement is focused on acceleration. More specifically, the 0-60mph metric.

The time it takes for a vehicle to reach 60mph from standstill, has long been recognised as a standard measure of linear acceleration. While only demonstrating one element of performance, it has proved enduring and evocative.

Whether a battery-electric vehicle (BEV) or internal-combustion engine (ICE) vehicle, manufacturers still include 0-60mph times when marketing new models. This is particularly true for higher-performance cars. Alongside power, top speed and range or fuel consumption, acceleration remains key to driving interest.

Subsequently, this statistic is a staple of vehicle-centred discussions and comparisons. However, is this metric truly indicative of a vehicle’s overall performance? In the era of fast-accelerating BEVs, combined with an increased consumer emphasis on range and energy consumption, is a low 0-60mph time still important?

Why is 0-60 important?

A quick 0-60mph time can serve as a status symbol. Behind the wheel, it represents the vehicle’s capabilities and the affinity for performance. However, it can also be seen as something that looks good on paper but is rarely fully exploited in the real world.

To accurately measure a vehicle’s 0-60mph time, specialised equipment and controlled conditions are essential. Both professional publications and carmakers typically conduct these tests at dedicated facilities. This includes bespoke automotive testing tracks or closed airport runways. 

Generally, multiple acceleration runs are performed in opposite directions. This is to account for potential environmental factors like wind or road surface variations. Some testers combine a timed 0-60mph figure with a quarter-mile timed run.

‘Like many automotive performance statistics, a car’s 0-60mph figure is one that is typically only achievable under perfect conditions and with an experienced driver,’ stated Autovista Group senior residual value analyst Robert Redman.

‘In day-to-day motoring, it can only really be attempted on odd occasions, such as when leaving the front of the queue at traffic lights. At best, that achieves very little, and at worst, can result in serious damage to the car’s drivetrain,’ he added. 

BEVs rewrite the 0-60 rules

Over a decade ago, when BEVs were a niche luxury product, acceleration was a key selling point. Early BEVs like the 2008 Tesla Roadster, could go from 0-60mph in under two seconds.

However, such vehicles were limited in range and practicality. To justify their premium price tag, manufacturers focused on showcasing their impressive acceleration. 

This shift has significantly altered performance benchmarks and cascaded down into everyday BEVs currently on the market. Mid-range family cars now possess the acceleration capabilities of high-performance ICE models. Some even match the performance of these cars in terms of 0-60mph times. 

‘Sure, the ability to launch a family sedan like a Lamborghini is amusing initially,’ Redman said. ‘However, the reality is that most roads are filled with slower traffic. This increases the risk of accidents.

‘Moreover, the silent acceleration of BEVs lacks the visceral thrill associated with high-performance internal combustion engines. A similar stunt in a petrol or diesel car would likely draw criticism, with other drivers labelling it as showboating or irresponsible,’ he added.

What makes BEVs so quick?

The BEV powertrain is more simple, with fewer moving parts compared to ICE vehicles. This streamlined design reduces energy losses, allowing for more efficient power delivery to the wheels.

Electric motors found in BEVs produce maximum torque from a standstill. This means they deliver full power immediately without a need to climb through a ratio of gears as is the case with ICE vehicles. This allows for smoother and quicker acceleration.

While acceleration metrics have historically been a significant marketing tool, particularly for BEVs, their relevance may diminish over time. As electric technology advances and battery capacities increase, the focus may shift from raw acceleration figures to other factors such as range, charging speed, and overall efficiency. 

Range beats acceleration

While impressive acceleration can still excite consumers and differentiate products, it is likely to become less of a defining factor. As BEVs become more commonplace and their performance capabilities considered standard, their relatively rapid acceleration will become the norm.

‘In the past, BEVs primarily differentiated themselves through their notable acceleration,’ commented Autovista Group’s chief economist Dr Christof Engelskirchen. ‘While this remains a significant advantage, the focus is shifting towards a more balanced performance profile. Linear acceleration, a characteristic unique to BEVs, continues to captivate, but factors like range and charging infrastructure are gaining equal importance.’

‘The enhanced performance that comes with BEVs is nice to have,’ stated Redman. ‘Undoubtedly, some will choose the faster variant when purchasing a vehicle. However, that acceleration potential often comes with a reduction in the all-important range, especially if it is used too often.’

Today, reaching a speed above 100mph is achievable for the majority of new cars. Alongside this, a sub-10 second 0-60mph time is nothing unusual. In that respect, this benchmark has lost some of its relevance. 

Changing attitudes

According to Redman, many motorists are less attracted by the allure of a quick 0-60 time. Instead, mid-range acceleration is more important in real-world conditions. Getting from 20mph to 40mph, or 30mph to 50mph, is essential for executing safe overtaking and accelerating out of corners.

‘For knowledgeable drivers, this is more important than the standing start time as it is utilised many times during a drive,’ confirms Redman. ‘That is one reason why such drivers will choose a large-capacity diesel over a petrol equivalent, as the former will often provide a much greater amount of mid-range torque. The 0-60mph time is also not an indication of a car’s overall driving experience. A dragster may have a blistering 0-60mph time, but try driving it through a winding mountain road.’

For BEVs, range is key. For prospective buyers, particularly those in sectors where tax benefits are not applicable, range remains critical. This is especially true for individuals who lack home charging options and rely on public or workplace infrastructure. Practicality, including sufficient boot space, is also a significant consideration for many. 

According to Engelskirchen, as BEV development continues, priorities from both OEMs and consumers will continue to shift. This could see the importance of the once headline-grabbing 0-60mph figure slipping further down buyers’ list of priorities.

‘As BEVs mature and enter the mass market, the focus is shifting from peak performance to practical range,’ confirmed Engelskirchen. ‘Optimising factors such as battery efficiency, energy management, and aerodynamic design will be key to extending range, without compromising vehicle weight or cost. 

‘While advancements in battery technology are promising, a comprehensive approach to vehicle engineering will be necessary to deliver affordable, long-range electric vehicles,’ he concluded.

This content is brought to you by Autovista24.

Are global EV sales forecast to improve by the end of 2024?

Will Europe’s sluggish electric vehicle (EV) market impact global deliveries in 2024? Neil King, head of forecasting at EV Volumes, presents the latest outlook with Autovista24 special content editor Phil Curry.

The global EV light-vehicle market is expected to perform well by the end of this year, according to the latest EV Volumes forecast. Despite a European slowdown, other markets will bolster deliveries of electric passenger cars and light-commercial vehicles. This will push the 2024 sales figure past 2023’s result.

EV registrations are forecast to improve by 19% worldwide, with 16.9 million sales and a 19.7% market share. This is 440,000 more units than predicted in July. However, the global EV volume outlook for 2028 onwards is up to 400,000 units lower than previously forecast. The global EV share is expected to reach 22.6% in 2025, 44.6% in 2030, and 69.5% in 2035.

The overall global light-vehicle market is expected to improve by 0.9% this year, up from the 0.5% forecast previously. This is due to the improved outlook for China compensating for the downgraded forecasts for Europe, Northern America, and the non-Triad region.

EV struggles in Europe

The entire European light-vehicle market saw a strong performance in 2023, with 13.9% growth in registrations. This came on the back of more turbulent times, caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting supply-chain crisis.

However, the market has struggled this year, with some bigger regions posting regular declines. Order intake is subdued because of high interest rates and cost-of-living increases, which have impacted demand.

EV Volumes now forecasts that the market will grow by only 2.4% this year. This figure is lower than the 2.6% forecast in July, highlighting how much the market has struggled in recent months.

This latest forecast equates to around 15.1 million units registered. This falls far short of the 18 million light vehicles delivered in Europe during 2019. EV Volumes does not see the European market returning to this level during the current forecast horizon, which runs to 2035.

Europe’s EV market has also struggled this so far year. With several countries amending or cancelling their subsidy programmes, a naturalisation of the sector has occurred.

Europe’s light-vehicle EV market can be expected to drop by the end of 2024, with deliveries down 2.2% compared to last year. This will only be a temporary downturn, with growth of 22.8% forecast for 2025, then a 20.1% rise in 2026 and an improvement of 21.1% in 2027.

The technology is forecast to dominate the market by 2029, representing 50.1% of all light-vehicle registrations. By 2030, there will be over 10 million EVs sold in Europe, with the technology taking 61% of the market.

PHEVs popular in China

China’s EV boom continued in 2022 with the powertrain’s share hitting 26.7% up from 13.9% in 2021. The government set a target for new energy vehicles (NEVs) sales, including battery-electric vehicles (BEVs), plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) and fuel-cell electric vehicles. These powertrains had to make up 20% of deliveries by 2025, a target which was reached three years ahead of time.

EV Volumes has slightly increased the total light-vehicle market forecast again for 2024. It now expects 24.5 million units to be sold. However, this still equates to a 1.3% year-on-year decline.

The market’s swing towards PHEVs, from 18.3% of all EVs sold in 2021 to 24.6% in 2022, continued last year. PHEVs accounted for 32.1% of EV registrations in 2023. This was largely caused by high sales growth of extended-range EVs (EREVs), popularised by BYD and Li Auto.

As a result, other Chinese OEMs have begun rolling out new PHEVs, which will exacerbate their appeal. Therefore, EV Volumes forecasts that the technology will capture a 41.6% share of the EV mix in 2024.

The country’s government is planning to provide additional financial support to encourage the adoption of cleaner technology, including EVs. Therefore, EV Volumes has increased the EV share outlook across the forecast horizon. It expects BEVs to gain ground in the BEV-PHEV mix from 2025 onwards.

In the medium and long term, the local forecast is not restricted by target shares or capacity limitations. EVs are forecast to account for 47.8% of light-vehicle sales in 2025, 69.5% in 2030, and 85% in 2035.

Support in North America?

EV growth in North America has proved consistent over the last two years. The entire market improved by 47.6% in 2022, and 47.8% in 2023. The EV share of all light-vehicle sales also improved in 2023 to 9.4%, up from 7.2% in 2022.

The country’s overall automotive market recovery is expected to continue. However, this will be at a slightly slower pace than anticipated earlier this year. This has affected the EV market share and volume forecasts. In 2024, a 12.8% improvement in light-vehicle EV registrations is expected, followed by a 37.8% increase in 2025.

The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) supports further, rapid EV growth in the US. However, compliance with upcoming battery and material-sourcing requirements is still unclear for many EV entries.

The incentives for producing vehicles and batteries in the region remain strong while also threatening imported brands and models. However, the Union of Auto Workers strikes highlighted the risks that EVs may pose to domestic OEMs. In turn, this would hurt US jobs in the automotive sector.

The IRA is assumed to remain effective until 2032. However, this could change when Donald Trump takes to the Oval Office at the start of 2025. Based on existing data, EV Volumes currently forecasts that the EV share of light-vehicle sales will reach 10.3% in 2024. This will then increase to 13.5% in 2025, then 39.7% in 2030, and 71.8% in 2035.

BEVs are expected to account for 78.6% of US EV sales this year, down from 79.7% in 2023. However, this figure will rise to 82.4% in 2025, then 93.6% in 2030, and 97.2% in 2035.

Non-Triad holds firm

EV numbers in the non-Triad markets rose sharply for the third consecutive year in 2023, albeit from a low base. EV demand is increasingly supported by a wider availability of products, higher incentives, and lower import tariffs in some countries.

Combined EV sales in the non-Triad markets reached roughly 556,000 units in 2022 and exceeded one million units for the first time in 2023. This equated to respective growth of 90.9% and 81.7%.

Volumes grew by more than 100% in markets including Australia, Thailand, Brazil, Turkey, Malaysia, and Mexico in 2023 and more than 50% in India and Japan.

Despite this, the combined EV share in the non-Triad region was only 3.6% in 2023. This was up from 2.1% in 2022, as large vehicle markets like India, Japan, Brazil, and Mexico still sell very few EVs. This also pulled down the global average EV share, as non-Triad countries accounted for a third of global light-vehicle sales in 2023.

The growth forecast for the region’s overall light vehicles in 2024 has been lowered to only 0.7% due to weakness in countries including Japan and South Korea. However, governments are introducing measures to strengthen their currencies and stimulate consumer demand, which should support vehicle sales going forward.

Therefore, EV Volumes has held the 2024 EV share forecast for the non-Triad countries at 4.8%, which translates into 1.37 million EV sales. Although, PHEVs are expected to perform better in the plug-in mix than previously anticipated.

The EV share is predicted to rise to 6.4% in 2025, reaching 17.7% in 2030, and 42.5% in 2035. This means the region will trail global EV adoption by about six years.

Future EV volume surge

The global volume of EVs is set to rise from just under 14.2 million units in 2023 to 71.2 million units in 2035. The latter figure is five times the amount of 2023’s volume. 

Meanwhile, annual traction battery demand is forecast to increase from 0.7 terawatt hours (TWh) in 2023 to 5.1TWh in 2035. This is over seven times the 2023 total. This is driven by the quest for longer electric ranges in all vehicle segments. The electrification of the popular full-size SUVs and pickups in North America is also increasing demand.

However, the trend for larger batteries is slowing as efficiency increases. Lower costs facilitate the electrification of smaller vehicles, where profit margins are tighter.

The number of EVs in operation is also increasing rapidly. However, their share of the total light-vehicle fleet is developing with considerable delay. There are a total of 1.33 billion light vehicles on roads around the world today.

Yet, EV Volumes' current forecast for plug-in growth expects that it will take until 2042 for half of the global fleet to be electric. This was calculated assuming normal scrappage rates.

Go to Autovista24 for related articles.

Launch Report: Citroën e-C3 makes all-electric mobility more affordable

The new Citroën e-C3 is a timely and affordable battery-electric vehicle (BEV) from the French carmaker. Autovista Group experts examine the model with Autovista24 special content editor Phil Curry.

Citroën is going through a period of reinvention, as it aims to make electric motoring affordable. Its new electric version of its popular C3 model, the e-C3, is its first step on this journey.

Looking to introduce more people to the benefits of BEVs, Citroën has designed the e-C3 to stand out, but not overburden buyers with expensive additions.

Autovista24’s latest Launch Report benchmarks the Citroën e-C3 against its key rivals in Austria, France, Italy and the UK. This includes a detailed analysis of its strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats. New price points are also outlined alongside forecast residual values.

Click here to open the interactive dashboard

SUV inspiration

The latest generation of the C3 adds a bolder design to the small hatchback, giving it an SUV profile. A boxy front end houses Citroën’s new badge design and headlight profile. This sets up a strong stance, helping the car look bigger than it is.

The shape may not seem overtly aerodynamic, but Citroën has included plenty of lines to channel air around the car. This includes the rear profile, where the bodywork flairs. This design continues into the lighting units, giving the impression of fins. This design was made even more extreme on the C5 Aircross Concept launched at the 2024 Paris Motor Show.

A straight back end and up to 17-inch wheels mean the model is far removed from the older, curvier C3. This makes it more visually appealing to a wider audience.

Technology on a budget

Inside, the e-C3 sees Citroën continue its legacy of driver and passenger comfort. The carmaker has included its advanced comfort seats, which use additional foam to provide extra cushioning and support. This, together with comfortable suspension, makes it a good fit for those looking for a relaxing drive.

The new vehicle profile also improves the interior space. The e-C3 stands 1.57-metres tall, higher than the old model, increasing headroom for front passengers. With the boxier SUV profile and no sweeping rooflines, rear headroom is also greatly improved. Back-seat passengers also benefit from good legroom, something that is sometimes difficult to find in smaller vehicles.

To help keep costs down, the e-C3 interior is sparse in terms of gadgets and premium technologies. However, this works in the vehicle’s favour. The 10.25-inch touchscreen is adequate, while the slim driver display sits high on the dashboard, well within the vision line. There are plenty of physical buttons for the vehicle controls too.

However, in the entry-level version, Citroën does not include the infotainment screen. Instead, a smartphone cradle is installed. This saves on costs but reduces the functionality and size of the infotainment area.

This specification also removes the electric windows from the rear doors, with manual options instead. These specifications are mirrored in some other budget models. Yet they are a noticeable reminder of the low-price specification for those unable to afford the next step up.

Practically practical

The e-C3 comes with a 310-litre boot, a decent size and plenty for a small family. However, the car’s SUV nature does not extend to the loading space. No flat floor can make it more difficult to use.

In terms of power, Citroën launched the e-C3 with a 44kWh battery, capable of producing 113hp. The smaller battery pack means the car is lighter, but has a lower driving range of 320km. To mitigate this, the model has a 100kW DC charging capacity. This means its battery can go from 20% to 80% in 26 minutes.

However, the model will be more suited to town and city driving rather than long-distance trips. Citroën has limited the e-C3 to a top speed of 132kph, with the 83kW motor producing a 0-100km time of 11 seconds. This is not a performance car and is not intended to be.

Comfort mode

Citroën’s vehicles have always been known for their comfortable ride, and the e-C3 does not disappoint. Where some BEVs have stiffer suspension settings to offset the vehicle weight, the e-C3 features the brand’s advanced comfort suspension. Hydraulic components act to soften the ride, allowing the model to soak up bumps.

This does provide a certain amount of roll in the corners, however, especially with the vehicle now sitting higher. It is also susceptible to gusts of wind, with its flatter and boxier side profile.

Yet the e-C3 is a good car to drive. The smaller steering wheel is not an issue, and the car turns into corners with ease. In a town or city environment, the power limitations are not noticeable, whereas the handling potential of the model is. On faster roads, the e-C3 performs well but is not exciting.

Overall, the Citroën e-C3 is a good entry-level BEV. With prices comparable to petrol and diesel models, it can help introduce buyers to the technology.

View the Autovista Group dashboard, which benchmarks the Citroën e-C3 in Austria, France, Italy and the UK. The interactive dashboard presents new prices, forecast residual values, and SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) analysis.

This content is brought to you by Autovista24.

On song BYD dominates record-breaking Chinese EV market in September

Chinese electric vehicle (EV) deliveries soared in September, as BYD continued its domestic market domination. José Pontes, data director at EV Volumes, looks into the figures with Autovista24 special content editor Phil Curry.

Registrations of EVs, including battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) set a new record in China in September. More than 1.1 million units were delivered in the month, a 51% increase year on year. This is even more spectacular when considering the overall market improvement in the month was just 5%.

Growth came from both powertrain types. BEVs were up 29% in September, to around 644,000 units, while PHEVs jumped 97% to around 479,000 units. This was the fourth month in a row that PHEVs broke their volume record.

September’s strong results saw EVs take a 53% share of the overall Chinese new-car market. BEVs alone accounted for 31% of all deliveries. In terms of EV share, BEVs held 57% of registrations in the month, while PHEVs had 32%. The remaining 11%  share was captured by extended-range models (EREVs).

In the first nine months of 2024, around 7.3 million EVs have been delivered to customers, a significant rise over the 5.4 million units that were registered in the same period during 2023.

Looking at the market share between January and September, EVs held 47%, with 27% of this belonging to BEVs. Compared with 12 months prior, the 2023 plug-in share was 37%, with BEVs making up 25% overall. This means that while BEVs have only improved market share by two percentage points (pp), PHEVs are growing faster. The technology’s share increased by around 8pp year on year.

With this growth, the year should end with EVs holding around 50% of the market. This means the push for full electrification by around 2030 is still heading in the right direction.

EVs lead overall

China’s overall best-seller chart saw EVs take the top six places, with the first internal-combustion engine (ICE) model being the Nissan Sylphy. It took seventh with 33,000 units.

With eight plug-in models in the overall top 10, the market was led by electric powertrains. Furthermore, six of these models belonged to BYD, highlighting the carmaker’s domination in its domestic market.

In the EV-only chart, BYD placed 11 models in the top 20, as its run of success continued. This included the top spot for the Song, in its BEV and PHEV versions. The midsize SUV scored 57,022 registrations in September, with 7,024 units coming from the BEV version alone.

The Song is uncontested in the Chinese market, with a gap of over 8,800 units to second place. Whether it will continue to run unchallenged at the head of the table all depends on its competition, including that from internal sources.

However, with competitive pricing, it is still achieving over 50,000 sales a month on average, a necessary threshold.

With 48,202 units delivered in September, the Tesla Model Y took second position in China. This was the model’s best month of the year, and it remains relevant in the country’s market. The brand was the only foreign carmaker to appear in the Chinese top 20, but there may be a challenge ahead. Domestic manufacturers are launching cars that could prove serious competition to both the Tesla Model Y and the Model 3, namely the Nio Onvo L60 and Xpeng Mona M03.

BYD takes charge

Four BYD models filled the next four spots, with the Seagull leading this charge in third. The model posted a year-best performance in September, with 47,915 deliveries. Part of its production is now being diverted to export markets, yet demand is seemingly growing in China.

The Seagull could become the best-selling BYD model globally. The A-segment model is also expected to place second in the 2025 EV table, both globally and in its domestic market

Meanwhile, the Qin L achieved a record result in September, with 39,490 deliveries in fourth. Its production ramp-up is continuing, and it is not hurting registrations of the Qin Plus, on which the BEV is based on.

BYD has succeeded with the Qin and its related models. Combining deliveries of the L, together with the Qin Plus, the Seal 06 and the Destroyer 05, both of which are alternative trim lines, the brand achieved 135,625 registrations in China. This is more than the global sales of the Tesla Model Y.

The Qin Plus ended September in fifth position, with 38,874 units. Of this, 12,213 deliveries were all-electric models. The Seal 06 took sixth place, ending the brands consecutive streak with 37,155 units. BYD also took eighth place with the Yuan Plus (25,576 units) and 10th position with the Song L (25,308 units).

BYD also placed three models in the bottom half of the top 20. The Destroyer 05 ended in 13th (20,106 units), while the Yuan Up took17th (16,018 units) and the Dolphin finished in 18th place (15,290 units).

With over half the table comprised of BYD models, it is clear the brand is successful in its domestic market. It also seems to have settled on the strategy of producing more good-quality models that will sell in lower volumes, to beat the might of Tesla and its two major vehicles.

Notable performances

One of the biggest surprises in September’s top 10 was the presence of the Wuling Mini EV, which took seventh place. With 28,918 registrations, this was the model’s best performance since February 2023. Highlighting Wuling’s strong month in China, the larger Bingo also had a year-best result, with 24,063 units securing 11th place.

Another model on the rise is the Li Auto L6, which was 9th, with a record 25,393 deliveries. The smaller of Li Auto’s lineup is also the brand’s newest model, so the midsize SUV could start to secure a frequent presence in the top 10.

The Tesla Model 3 took 12th position with 23,998 registrations, its best performance in two years. It appears the refreshed model is starting to enjoy some success in China. However, this is still not at the level of its stablemate, the Model Y.

A surprising result was the 16th spot of the Geely Panda Mini, which saw a record 17,551 deliveries in the month. With the good results of the Wuling Mini EV, Changan Lumin (12,284 units), and FAW’s Bestune Xiaoma (9,615 units), small city cars had a great month in September.

Another record performance was produced by the Luxeed S7, which made its debut in the top 20, taking the final place in the table. It secured 14,647 deliveries to hold the spot, as Chery and Huawei’s partnership begins to blossom.

Other noticeable achievements

Outside the top 20, there were several impressive performances, as new and established models fought for position.

Amongst the startup brands, Aion came closest to the top 20, with its Y crossover finishing September ended in 21st position (14,612 units). Geely’s Galaxy E5 crossover also just missed a place in the top 20. Its 14,250 units led it to 22nd in only its second month on the market.

Meanwhile, in its fifth month on the market, Chery’s Fengyun T9 PHEV crossover delivered 11,156 units. Xpeng impressed with its Mona M03, recording 10,023 registrations in its first month on the market.

Finally, the only other foreign brand than Tesla to make a mark in China’s EV market during September was Volkswagen. Its ID.3 had a year-best monthly total of 9,650 units.

Tesla pulls back

September’s results did little to change the year-to-date table at the end of the month. The BYD Song continued to look secure in the top spot, with 467,750 units, over 105,000 deliveries ahead of the BYD Qin Plus in second (362,721 units).

The competition for second and third places is closer, however. The Tesla Model Y is only 25,073 units behind the Qin Plus, with its September tally ending at 337,648 deliveries.

Fourth was held by the BYD Seagull (297,395 units), which lost some ground to the Tesla Model Y in September. The BYD Yuan Plus is over 100,000 deliveries behind in fifth (197,099 units), with the Destroyer 05 in sixth (157,629 units).

The result for the Wuling Mini EV in September saw it jump two places in the annual table. It sat in seventh, with 154,432 registrations. Its progression came at the expense of the Aito M7 (151,378 units) and the BYD Han (145,571 units), which dropped to eighth and ninth respectively.

The Wuling Bingo climbed to 10th position (128,703 units) while the biggest mover was the BYD Qin L, which jumped six positions. The model took 11th place, thanks to 126,265 registrations between January and September.

Meanwhile, Li Auto saw its L6 model gain two spots. It ended September in 14th place across the first nine months of the year, with 114,356 deliveries.

BYD also had cause to celebrate, with the Seal 06 joining the yearly registrations table in 18th position (99,386 units), giving the Chinese carmaker nine models in the top 20, cementing its popularity in its domestic market.

Go to Autovista24 for related articles.

The economy behind large batteries in electric vehicles – is bigger better?

EV batteries

As carmakers chase greater electric vehicle (EV) ranges, batteries keep getting bigger. But do these larger energy-storage units pay off? Autovista Group experts explore the economies of large batteries with Autovista24 editor Tom Geggus.

As EVs transition into the mass market, the economies of bigger batteries need to be considered. When does the size of the energy-storage unit affect performance and pricing? What is the role of plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) in the transition to battery-electric vehicles (BEVs)? Are carmakers on the right track to push EVs into the mass market?

Autovista Group experts set out to answer these questions in a new webinar. The panel included Dr Christof Engelskirchen, chief economist at Autovista Group, Dr Anne Lange, director of research and innovation at Autovista Group, Christoph Ruhland, director of business development at Autovista Group, and Christian Schneider, director of content at EV Volumes.

Are bigger batteries better?

Between 2021 and 2024, Germany saw the average WLTP range of a BEV increase by 28% to 375km. While this meant greater distances without the need to plug in, drivers also benefitted from faster charging. The average DC charging speed increased by 25% over the same period to 131kW.

‘Range anxiety is not a big issue anymore with the current generation of EVs,’ said Schneider. ‘We see a small shift at the moment from range anxiety to charging anxiety. The charging infrastructure across Europe has grown quite a lot in the past, but it is still maybe struggling a little bit in some regions.’

So, while bigger batteries allow drivers to go further between charging stops, infrastructure still needs to be available. On top of this, faster EV charging means less time spent at a public plug-in point on a journey.

The economies of size

Engelskirchen calculated the savings associated with long-range BEVs, by comparing variants of the Tesla Model Y and Volvo EX30. This meant measuring the annual costs associated with all-electric cars on a 20,000km, three-year lease.

In Germany, a new long-range Tesla Model Y currently costs 9% more than the standard-range version. This means an absolute difference of €3,361, but what does that pay for? While the standard model is advertised with a WLTP range of 455km, the long-range version should reach 600km.

The Volvo EX30 is a more affordable BEV, but the price differential is greater between the two versions. The long-range model costs 13% more (€4,370) than the standard EX30. This puts the WLTP range up to 475km from 337km. But is there a financial advantage to paying for more kWh?

‘With a longer-range vehicle, you will be charging less publicly. Public charging is a bit more expensive. This means you are going to save €59 per year,’ Engelskirchen explained. However, this is dependent on the usage scenario. If a person makes more long journeys, they are likely to make more stops at public charging points.

Remarketing bigger batteries

So, how do larger batteries influence pricing in the used-car market? Using portal data of models at 10,000km in Germany, Lange revealed that BEVs with greater energy capacities retained more value.

BEVs with large batteries also sell more quickly. These models spend fewer days in stock compared to those with smaller energy-storage capabilities. For example, all-electric cars with a capacity of up to 50kWh spent 109 days in stock. Meanwhile, those above the 80kWh mark needed 95 days on average to sell.

However, Lange highlighted an important caveat. ‘It is quite hard to isolate the effect of battery size,’ she said. ‘Larger batteries will always be built into larger vehicle segments and will usually have better equipment, better trims, and higher horsepower.’

Plug-in hybrid highs

PHEVs have also seen battery capacities increase, alongside growing global demand. Global sales of the powertrain have accelerated, with EV Volumes forecasting continued growth in the years ahead. This trend is being driven by China, where demand is so great, it is dictating global figures.

However, this demand is not mirrored across the world. France represents a trend occurring in many European markets, with PHEV shares set to decline as more BEVs are adopted. One major exception to this steady descent is Germany, where the plug-in hybrid share dropped rapidly in 2023 after the German government withdrew purchase incentives.

Used PHEVs continue to sit behind internal-combustion engine models, but ahead of BEVs when it comes to value retention. The powertrain can also be expected to retrain a greater level of residual value if they are fitted with larger batteries. However, it is still important to recognise that bigger, more expensive models are likely to feature more energy storage.

Are carmakers on the right track?

So, will batteries continue to increase in size despite the drive towards the mass market? Ruhland pointed out that new and upcoming EVs are continuing the trend towards larger batteries. For example, the VinFast VF9 is expected to arrive in Europe with a battery capacity of 123kWh.

Meanwhile, the Denza D9 DM-i PHEV will feature a 40kWh energy-storage unit. Before long, there will be even more plug-in hybrids with batteries of this size, capable of electric ranges up to 200km.

To illustrate just how far EVs have come, Ruhland highlighted the journey of the Nissan Leaf. The BEV was first mass-produced in 2010 with a 24kWh battery, almost half of what some upcoming PHEVs will feature.

In the last 14 years, the EV landscape has changed almost beyond recognition. Where there was once a handful of plug-in models, a wide range of different BEVs and PHEVs now exist. Behind them stands an array of emerging carmakers.

The defining choice ahead of them is whether to put bigger batteries in their EVs or to optimise performance. By focusing on efficiency, OEMs could reach respectable ranges while also delivering cars with enjoyable driving dynamics. This will also keep costs from climbing further, meaning more EVs make it to the mass market.

If you enjoyed The economy behind large batteries in electric vehicles - is bigger better?, make sure to register for Autovista Group’s next free webinar. Blessing or curse: The impact of EU tariffs on BEVs made in China, will take place on 7 November 2024 at 9.30am BST / 10.30am CET. Find out more and register for your place today.more and register for your place today.

This content is brought to you by Autovista24.

Balancing the price and performance of EV batteries

EV batteries

Vehicle manufacturers have been increasing the size of electric vehicle (EV) batteries, but how does this balance with pricing? Autovista24 editor Tom Geggus will examine the price-performance conundrum with Autovista Group experts in an upcoming webinar.

As one of the most expensive components in an EV, batteries impact pricing, performance and purchasing behaviour. This creates a price-performance conundrum for vehicle manufacturers. As battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) need to transition into the mass market, this issue is of critical importance.

Autovista Group experts will explore this delicate balance in a new webinar: The economy behind large batteries in electric vehicles – is bigger better? Register now for this free event on 26 September 2024 at 9.30am BST / 10.30am CET.

Register now

An expert panel 

Following the success of the previous Autovista Group webinar: How to recharge Europe’s battery-electric economy, this panel of automotive experts will feature: 

  • Dr Christof Engelskirchen, Autovista Group chief economist 
  • Tom Geggus, Autovista24 editor 
  • Dr Anne Lange, Autovista Group director of research and innovation 
  • Christoph Ruhland, Autovista Group business development director
  • Christian Schneider, EV Volumes director of content.

These Autovista Group experts will take a deep dive into the economy of bigger batteries, exploring three business-critical topics: 

  1. BEV batteries only seem to be getting larger. But price remains a big barrier on the road to the mass market. Do greater battery capacities and ranges pay off? 
  2. Plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) now boast increasingly large batteries. This is giving the powertrain a second wind in many major markets around the world. But will this success continue, and what does it mean for the transition to BEVs?
  3. Are vehicle manufacturers on the right track to deliver BEVs and PHEVs to the mass market? How do new launches compare to what is already present on the market? 

Who is the webinar for?

Anybody with a vested interest in EV technology will benefit from the market intelligence presented in this webinar, particularly: 

  • Product managers for vehicle manufacturers involved in portfolio planning, sales or marketing 
  • Remarketing managers seeking to address the price-performance conundrum 
  • Companies that hold EV asset risks
  • Fleet managers who wish to understand the impact of larger batteries on their vehicles from a user-convenience perspective 
  • Individuals or companies providing professional services to the EV industry.

Three takeaways from the batteries webinar

Though the discussion will touch on several major talking points around BEV batteries, attendees can expect to gain greater insight on: 

  • What vehicle manufacturers need to bear in mind when thinking about the mass market and the importance of EV technology 
  • Whether bigger batteries really are justified 
  • How new and recently launched BEV and PHEV models differ from what is currently sold in the market, highlighting comparative advantages for future releases 

Unravel the price-performance conundrum of EV batteries by attending the free Autovista Group webinar: The economy behind large batteries in electric vehicles – is bigger better? It takes place on 26 September 2024 at 9.30am BST / 10.30am CET. Find out more and register for your place today.

This content is brought to you by Autovista24.

Launch Report: Smart #3 benefits from the best of both worlds

The Smart #3 is the second model launched by the carmaker in its new era. Can it start a trend of budget-friendly, yet premium battery-electric vehicles (BEVs)? Autovista Group (part of J.D. Power) experts analyse the model with Autovista24 special content editor Phil Curry.

Now owned by Mercedes-Benz and Geely, Smart is evolving away from its microcar roots and towards models with broader appeal. The new generation of vehicles are designed by the German carmaker, with engineering and development led by the Chinese brand.

Mercedes-Benz-assisted design offers a premium look and feel while Geely offers more advanced BEV technology. Both companies have knowledge of the European market, either as a domestic brand or through subsidiaries like Volvo. This gives Smart a good opportunity to deliver in the region.

Autovista24’s latest Launch Report benchmarks the Smart #3 against its key rivals in Austria, France and the UK. This includes detailed analysis of its strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats. New price points are also outlined alongside forecast residual values.

Click here to open the interactive dashboard

Smart exterior

As the second model released under the joint ownership structure, Smart’s new design philosophy is clearly taking shape. The #3 is very similar in appearance to the #1, with LED headlights stretching into a light bar across the front of the vehicle.

The lower grill houses sensors for the advanced driver-assistance system, while the bonnet bulges above the wheel arches, channelling air. This aerodynamic design continues along the side, with channels to smooth airflow. Meanwhile, hidden door handles both reduce drag and add to a flush-looking exterior.

Smart is marketing the #3 as a coupé-SUV model. While it does feature a slightly sloping roofline, it is perhaps not as dramatic as regular coupés. However, the privacy-glass rear-quarter windows does continue the line set by the door windows into the rear of the car. This makes the model’s profile appear almost domed and futuristic.

Comfort and practicality

The cabin of the Smart #3 is pleasantly spacious. This is aided by the panoramic sunroof which floods the interior with natural light. Seating is comfortable, with the one-piece backrest offering good support, although the rear bench is quite firm.

Despite the coupé-esque roofline, the rear-passenger headroom is plentiful, even for tall adults. There is also plenty of legroom in the rear, even with the front seats positioned quite far back. The #3 can easily accommodate four adults as a result.

There is also plenty of storage available. The floating centre console features a large bottom shelf, with the armrest housing two cupholders, a dedicated phone slot, a charging area with two USB-C ports, and a large cubby. However, this does tend to open accidentally with the button easily caught by elbows.

The boot’s 370-litre capacity will easily hold three large suitcases, while this space expands to 1,160-litres with the rear seats folded almost flat. There is no flat loading area, with a small lip between the hatch and the boot floor.

There is a dual floor, allowing for charging cables or smaller items to be hidden away. Cables can also be stored in the frunk under the bonnet, which provides an additional 15-litres of space.

Infotainment issues

The Smart #3 features a 12.8-inch touchscreen infotainment system. Meanwhile, a smaller 9.2-inch screen containing detailed driver information is located behind the steering wheel. There is also a head-up display available in certain versions of the car.

As part of the General Safety Regulation 2 legislation passed by the European Commission, the Smart #3 features safety-related systems. This includes rear-view and blind-spot cameras, intelligent speed assistance and driver fatigue alerts. These last two systems are quite sensitive in the #3, providing audible notifications at the slightest infraction.

Smart3
Launch Report
Smart #3
Source: Smart

However, a screen behind the steering wheel sets the BEV apart from its platform sibling, the Volvo EX30. With immediately accessible information, the fatigue warning system is not repeatedly activated by the driver checking the centre screen.

As with many new models, most of the #3’s controls are located within menus and apps on the central touchscreen. This includes climate control, energy usage and driving modes, audio selection and volume.

There are shortcut touch-based buttons below the screen for select systems. However, basic audio controls only exist on the steering wheel, with no physical volume dial for the passenger. As many controls are buried in menus, it is difficult for the driver to switch functions off, adjust regenerative braking, or change radio stations when the vehicle is in motion.

The driving experience

On the road, the Smart #3 performs well for a vehicle of its size and weight. The suspension is medium-to-firm, soaking up bumps and keeping the 4.4-metre-long body steady. It does tend to wallow in sharper corners if taken at speed but corrects itself well.

The steering is precise and smooth, although there is a bit of vagueness at times, especially when cornering at higher speeds. It can feel like there is a lack of front-end grip when steering. This may be a consequence of the rear-wheel drive, with all-wheel drive only available in the performance Brabus version.

Mercedes-Benz
Mercedes
Geely
BEV
Source: Smart

A 49kWh lithium-ion phosphate (LFP) battery is available on the entry-level Pro version, providing 325km of range (WLTP). All other versions get a 66kWh lithium nickel cobalt manganese (NCM) battery, providing up to 455km range (WLTP). Charging from 10% to 80% takes around 30 minutes with 150kW on the larger battery unit.

View the Autovista Group dashboard, which benchmarks the Smart #3 in Austria, France and the UK. The interactive dashboard presents new prices, forecast residual values, and SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) analysis.

This content is brought to you by Autovista24.

How have global EV forecasts reacted to strong headwinds?

EV Volumes

Global electric vehicle (EV) sales are experiencing turbulence, but is this enough to affect market trajectories? Neil King, head of forecasting at EV Volumes (part of J.D. Power), presents the latest outlook with Autovista24 special content editor Phil Curry.

Covering both passenger cars and light-commercial vehicles, the latest light-vehicle forecast from EV Volumes expects a 0.5% rise in total sales this year when compared with 2023.

This follows a weaker outlook in the non-Triad region, as well as downgraded expectations for Europe and North America. However, China did help compensate for this with an improved outlook.

Focusing on powertrain performance, the EV market has faced headwinds this year. Public opinion has suffered with talks of registration slowdowns, the cancelling of incentives and the implementation of provisional import tariffs.

Combined battery-electric vehicle (BEV) and plug-in hybrid (PHEV) volumes grew by 35% globally in 2023, reaching 14.2 million units. This equated to a 16.7% market share, up from 13.6% in 2022.

EV demand to increase

EV Volumes has held its plug-in share forecast for 2024 at 19.2%, with year-on-year growth of 16%. This means EVs are predicted to outperform the overall light-vehicle market. Factoring in the EU’s provisional import tariffs on Chinese-built BEVs, the forecast 16.49 million global EV sales in 2024 is only 9,000 units lower than predicted in June.

However, the global EV outlook for 2025 onwards is up to 100,000 units lower than previously predicted. The global EV share is forecast to reach 22.1% in 2025, then 44.9% in 2030, increasing to 69.7% in 2035. Global volumes are set to increase from 14.2 million in 2023 to 71.6 million units in 2035.

Annual battery demand is expected to increase from 0.7TWh in 2023 to 5.2TWh in 2035. This will be driven by the desire for longer electric ranges across all vehicle segments. The electrification of popular full-size SUVs and pickups in North America will also increase demand.

However, the trend for larger batteries is slowing as efficiency increases and costs fall. This will enable the electrification of smaller vehicles, which have tighter profit margins.

EV Volumes also forecasts a considerable delay in the electrification of the total light-vehicle fleet in operation. There are 1.33 billion light vehicles on the world’s roads at present. The current forecast for EV growth means it will take until 2042 for half of the market to be electric. This is assuming normal vehicle scrappage rates and replacement.

Europe’s pace slows

Europe’s new light-vehicle market expanded by 13.2% year-on-year in 2023. Supply improved after the COVID-19 pandemic and ensuing component shortages.

However, current order intake has now fallen because of high interest rates and the cost-of-living crisis. EV Volumes now forecast that the market will grow by 2.6% in 2024. This is lower than its March 2024 forecast, when expected growth sat at 3.1%.

The end of the year will see 15.1 million new light vehicles delivered, falling far short of the 18 million units registered in Europe in 2019. EV Volumes does not see the European market returning to this level during the current forecast scenario, up to and including 2035.

The European EV market entered 2024 facing some considerable challenges. France amended its incentive scheme to refuse subsidies to certain models and Germany cut incentives entirely last year. Norway ended its VAT exemption for the powertrains, and Switzerland removed the 4% import tax exemption for BEVs.

However, not all countries have taken this approach to subsidies. Italy recently introduced a new incentive scheme. Spain allocated €200 million of funding to extend its MOVES III scheme. Additionally, Poland is considering the revision of EV purchase subsidies.

More affordable BEVs such as the Citroen e-C3 are rolling out too. Global EV-leader BYD has expansion plans for the region as well, alongside other Chinese OEMs.

Tariff impact?

In July, provisional import tariffs on BEVs made in China came into force. This means additional costs for carmakers shipping vehicles into the region. Duty levels are based on the level of government subsidisation and cooperation with the EU investigation. These tariffs are in addition to existing import duties of 10%.

The tariffs remain provisional and are subject to further change as discussions continue. Furthermore, OEMs have only had to provide bank guarantees at this stage. No additional duties are to be collected until they become definitive in November.

Only Tesla confirmed a price increase following the announcement, with the made-in-China Model 3 costing around €1,500 more in some European countries. Meanwhile, Nio and Xpeng have stated they will not change prices in the EU. BYD is expected to absorb the tariffs without increasing prices. Finally, MG-parent SAIC stated that it has sufficient stock to supply the market until the tariffs become definitive in November.

Falling lithium prices are also allowing OEMs to hold prices steady.  EV Volumes assumes that prices will largely be unchanged until a final decision is made in November. There is also a possibility that final tariffs will drop at that point too.

Minimal disruption

So, the impact on the 2024 BEV sales forecast for Europe appears negligible. However, price changes and variations in demand have been considered in adjusting the forecast.

EV Volumes now expects European EV sales to rise a further 4.9% this year. This is despite the anticipated slower growth of the wider light-vehicle market. Plug-in vehicles would therefore make up for 21.8% of all light-vehicle sales in the region. BEV volumes are forecast to grow by 5.5%, accounting for 68.7% in the 2024 EV market.

PHEV sales should grow by 3.7%, benefitting from any BEV price increases while offering a stepping stone to full electrification. Incentive changes mean BEVs have already lost their price advantage in Germany, for example.

The impact of the new BEV tariffs will be greater in 2025 and beyond. EV Volumes expects that Europe will see up to 120,000 fewer BEV sales annually compared with its June update. Yet the PHEV sales outlook has been modestly increased.

The EV market share is now forecast to reach 25.6% next year, from 25.9% forecast in June. It is then expected to hit 61.9% in 2030, down from 62.3% forecast in June. This is expected to hit 95% by 2035, down from 94.1% forecast in June.

China boom

China’s EV boom continued in 2022 with the powertrain’s share hitting 26.7% from 13.9% in 2021. The government’s target for new energy vehicles (NEVs), including BEVs, PHEVs and FCEVs, to make up 20% of sales by 2025 was therefore reached three years ahead of time.

Growth was less dramatic in 2023, at 36%, but with 8.4 million units delivered, the EV share climbed to 33.9%. PHEVs have taken the lead, accounting for 18% of EVs sold in 2021 to 25% in 2022, then 32% in 2023.

Chinese OEMs continue to roll out new PHEVs, which will boost their appeal. EV Volumes forecasts the powertrain will capture 40% of the country’s EV mix by 2024.

Given the challenging economic situation in China, the government is attempting to stimulate consumer demand and address deflation. This should also bolster state-owned OEMs amid a price war.

Accordingly, EV Volumes slightly increased the light-vehicle market forecast for 2024 to 24 million units. However, this still equates to a 3.2% year-on-year decline.

The government is also planning to provide additional fiscal support to encourage the adoption of cleaner technology, including EVs. Therefore, EV Volumes has increased the EV share outlook to 2035, and expects BEVs to gain ground from 2025 onwards.

In the medium and long term, the China forecast is not restricted by share targets or capacity limitations. EVs are now forecast to account for 44.5% of light-vehicle sales in 2025, growing to 68.5% in 2030, and reaching 84% in 2035.

North America

EV sales in the US and Canada increased by 48% year on year in 2022, following 100% growth in 2021. Growing plug-in demand in 2023 mirrored 2022, although 1.64 million units meant EVs accounted for 9.4% of light-vehicle sales in 2023, up from 7.2% in 2022.

The overall automotive market recovery continues in 2024, albeit at a slightly slower pace than anticipated in March. EV Volumes has also lowered its EV share and volume forecasts as growth has stalled.

The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) supports further, rapid EV growth in the US. This is even with compliance with forthcoming battery and material-sourcing requirements still unclear for many carmakers.

Incentives for producing vehicles and batteries in the region remain strong but also imply handicaps for imported brands and models. The IRA is assumed to remain until 2032 but this could change depending on the outcome of the US election later this year.

The 100% import duty to be levied on EVs imported from China comes into force from 1 August 2024. This should not have a dramatic impact as it only affects a few models. Nevertheless, the Volvo EX30 rollout has been postponed until 2025 and the new Mini Cooper Electric until 2026.

Brands producing EVs in China, such as Lynk&Co, Nio and Smart will not launch in North America until they can relocate production.

EV Volumes forecasts that the EV share of light-vehicle sales in North America will reach 11.3% in 2024, increasing to 15% in 2025. This will increase to 41.2% in 2030 and 73.3% in 2035.

BEVs are expected to account for 78% of the electric vehicle market this year, down from 79.8% in 2023. This share is forecast to rise to 82.9% in 2025, growing to 93.6% in 2030, and 97.2% in 2035.

Non-Triad

EV numbers in the non-Triad markets rose sharply for the third consecutive year in 2023, albeit from a low base. EV demand is increasingly supported by a wider availability of products, higher incentives, and lower import tariffs in some countries.

Combined EV sales in the non-Triad markets reached 554,000 units in 2022 and exceeded one million units in 2023, with growth of 91% and 81%, respectively. Volumes grew by more than 100% in markets including Australia, Thailand, Brazil, Turkey, Malaysia, and Mexico in 2023. Meanwhile, India and Japan recorded growth of 50%.

Nevertheless, the combined EV share was only 3.6% in 2023, albeit up from 2.1% in 2022. Large vehicle markets like India, Japan, Brazil, and Mexico still sell very few EVs relative to their market size. This also pulls down the global average EV share, as non-Triad countries accounted for a third of global light-vehicle sales in 2023.

The growth forecast for all light vehicles in 2024 has been lowered to only 1.2% due to weakness in countries such as Japan and South Korea. However, governments are introducing measures to strengthen their currencies and stimulate consumer demand, which should support future vehicle sales.

Smaller shares

EV Volumes has slightly reduced its EV share forecast for the non-Triad market in 2024 and 2025. However, it has maintained it in the medium and long-term outlooks. This is backed by India incentivising localised EV production and Japan advancing with the development of solid-state batteries.

For 2024, EV Volumes expects an EV share of 4.8% in the non-Triad countries, equating to around 1.4 million sales. This will be boosted by discounting in Thailand, for example. The EV share is predicted to rise to 6.4% in 2025, hitting 17.7% in 2030. This should increase to 42.5% in 2035, trailing global EV adoption by about six years.

Many developing countries impose high tariffs on vehicle imports. Unless EVs are exempt, they will need to develop local industries to catch up with the adoption in mature markets.

Go to Autovista24 for related articles.

EU Commission confirms provisional tariffs on BEVs made in China

With provisional tariffs now imposed on imports of battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) made in China, how will this affect the European market? In the latest Autovista24 podcast, editor Tom Geggus and special content editor Phil Curry discuss the news.

BEVs made in China and imported into the EU are now subject to provisional tariffs. The European Commission confirmed the move as governmental talks continue. But which carmakers are facing steeper levies, and what is the likely impact on Europe’s automotive market?

Subscribe to the Autovista24 podcast and listen to previous episodes on Spotify on Apple, Google and Amazon Music.

Show notes

Commission imposes provisional countervailing duties on imports of battery electric vehicles from China while discussions with China continue

Commission implementing regulation

Key points paper: European Commission’s anti-subsidy investigation

EU governments hesitant on Chinese EV tariffs as trade spat escalates

BEVs made in China face new provisional EU tariffs on top of existing duties

China’s impact on the European Automotive Industry

How to recharge Europe’s battery-electric vehicle market

The background

Following a month of talks, the European Commission has confirmed the implementation of provisional tariffs on BEVs imported from China. It aims to level the competition with domestic carmakers when it comes to list prices.

On 4 October 2023, the Commission launched an investigation into the illegal subsidisation of BEV value chains in China. Then on 12 June 2024, the investigation’s provisional conclusion was given following talks with the Chinese government.

‘As part of its ongoing investigation, the Commission has provisionally concluded that the battery-electric vehicle value chain in China benefits from unfair subsidisation, which is causing a threat of economic injury to EU BEV producers. The investigation also examined the likely consequences and impact of measures on importers, users and consumers of BEVs in the EU,’ the Commission stated at the time.

As a result, the Commission outlined new duties it would apply to BEVs made in China and imported into the EU. These pre-disclosed rates were calculated based on the amount of subsidisation the investigation uncovered.

Tariffs in place

On 4 July 2024, the Commission confirmed the provisional tariffs it would place on each BEV imported into the EU from China. The tariff rate was lowered slightly for many companies since the June pre-disclosure. This was the result of comments from interest parties on how the pre-disclosed duties were calculated.

These confirmed provisional duties will be in addition to the current 10% levy applied to imports, and will come into effect as of 5 July 2024 for a maximum duration of four months. Within this time, the Commission has confirmed that a final decision on the definitive duties can be expected.

This will follow a vote by EU Member States. If a qualified majority of at least 15 member states, representing a minimum 65% of the EU population, vote against tariffs, they will be blocked. When adopted, this final decision would make the duties definitive for five years. 

Possible outcomes

Christof Ruhland, director of business development at Autovista Group (part of J.D. Power), suggested several possible outcomes of the tariff implementation. These include:

  1. Chinese OEMs may delay or limit their BEV market entry strategies in Europe. This is because the new tariffs change their calculations
  2. There could be an increase in plug-in and full hybrid models, as these are not affected by the new tariffs
  3. Consumer prices for BEVs will rise as tariffs are too high to be absorbed by the profit margin. This also affects BEV models from European manufacturers that are produced in China
  4. Some Chinese imports may be redirected to non-EU countries like Norway and the UK, or other regions such as the Middle East or Brazil
  5. There will be an increasing need for Chinese OEMs to establish production sites in the EU to avoid import tariffs
  6. The tariffs could hinder the EU's environmental objectives by making EVs less accessible to the public, thereby slowing the transition from ICE to BEVs
  7. If there is no agreement on the matter, China will most likely introduce retaliatory measures, risking a wider trade war that could damage the European economy (not just the automotive sector).

Model impact

There will be an impact on several models currently available in Europe. Some cars in the January to May EV best-seller table, compiled with data from EV Volumes, will likely see tariffs imposed upon them.

The Tesla Model 3, currently the second best-selling EV in Europe, will likely be affected. However, the US manufacturer, facing a 20.8% tariff, has requested a review for an individual levy, which will be implemented at the definitive stage.  

The MG4, built by SAIC, was the seventh best-selling EV across the first five months of this year and is facing the highest tariff level. Geely’s Volvo EX30 is also likely to be affected. However, production of this model starts in Europe next year, meaning it will no longer face charges when it shifts manufacturing out of China. The world’s most popular carmaker, BYD, does not feature in Europe’s EV top 20 at present.

The overall EU BEV market will surely be affected by the tariffs. The region is looking to continue its transition to zero-emission mobility, making affordability a central tenant for mass marketability. But these duties mean carmakers are faced with a decision. Either absorb the tariff costs meaning smaller margins, or pass costs on to the consumer. Should this happen the region’s transition could struggle with fewer affordable models available.

This content is brought to you by Autovista24.

How popular are electric buses in Europe?

EV Volumes

Europe’s electric-bus market ended 2023 on a high, but has this growth continued into the first quarter of 2024? Przemek Kolasa, data manager for commercial vehicles at EV Volumes, examines the trends with Autovista24 special content editor Phil Curry.

Made up of full-electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles, Europe’s electric-bus market is growing steadily. Between 2021 and 2023, these models increased their hold on the new-bus market by seven percentage points, capturing 18% at the end of last year.

Full hybrid, alternative fuels (including liquid-petroleum gas, compressed-natural gas and ethanol) and hydrogen fuel-cell (FCEV), held respective shares of 11%, 10% and 0.5%. Between 2021 and 2023, they increased their hold by 2pp, 1pp and 0.07pp respectively.

Diesel buses still dominated the market, holding a 60% share at the end of 2023. However, this share has dropped 11pp from 2021.

Domestic buses first

In the fourth quarter of last year, Volkswagen (VW) Group topped the list of electric-bus manufacturers, with a 15% share of all registrations over the three months. The German brand was followed by Volvo, which took 11% of the market, and Daimler held 9%.

This performance helped VW Group end the year as the market leader, with a rapid increase in market share since 2021. The manufacturer took 11.3% of the electric-bus market, increasing its hold by 8pp over the two years.

CAF finished the year in second, thanks to a 10.1% market share. However, this was down by 2pp compared to 2022. Chinese manufacturer BYD also struggled, finishing in third with a market share of 9.6%, down 5pp year on year.

VW Group’s position was helped by a 260% increase in registrations during 2023, while CAF also increased its deliveries, albeit by 10%. Highlighting its struggle in the year, BYD saw 12% fewer registrations when compared to 2022.

Overall, the electric-bus market finished 2023 with a 47% registration increase, totalling more than 7,000 units.

Lion's leads the way

The leading model in the 2023 electric bus market was the Lion’s City, manufactured by MAN. It comes in three lengths and is equipped with a lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide (NMC) battery. It has an average capacity of 506kWh and an estimated range is 350km.

Next on the list of leading models was the Urbino, from Solaris. It comes in four lengths and was equipped with NMC batteries until 2022. Since then, Solaris has equipped the Urbino with lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) batteries, providing an average capacity of 546kWh and an estimated range of 450km.

The BYD K-Series was the next most popular model in 2023. It is 12-metres long and features LFP batteries with a maximum capacity of 422kWh. This means an estimated range of 450km.

Chinese struggles

Last year, the influence of Chinese manufacturers in the market started to wane. BYD and Yutong, the biggest companies from China in Europe at present, saw their shares decrease in 2023. BYD lost more than 5pp year-on-year, while Yutong lost 3pp compared to 2022.

This indicates that local manufacturers have taken note of the Chinese incursion into the electric-bus market, and have been developing their products to compete. This is likely the reason VW Group led the market at the end of 2023, with domestic manufacturers growing their shares.

Boost for hydrogen buses

In the medium and heavy bus segment, FCEVs are becoming a serious alternative to battery-electric and plug-in hybrid powertrains. In 2023, sales of fuel-cell models increased by 65%. This result is even more impressive as it came after a two-year slump for the technology.

In 2024 and beyond, more positive numbers are expected. There are new agreements between fuel-cell supplier Ballard and several bus manufacturers. Additionally, there are lots of standing orders in countries like Germany, Italy, France, Spain and the UK.

First quarter performance

In the first three months of 2024, electric buses held a 14% share of the market. This was the same as in the first quarter of 2022, but 2pp down on the same period last year.

However, in terms of volumes, the market finished the quarter with registrations increasing by 7.6% year on year, with more than 1,600 units registered.

The electric-bus sector is not the only one struggling. Fuel-cell buses saw their market share decrease 1.5pp to a 0.5% hold, while hybrids dropped 3pp to 9%, and alternative fuels declined 1pp, to a 5% market share.

As local manufacturers work hard on their products, competitiveness is growing, and it is possible to choose from a larger variety of buses. During the first quarter of 2024, First Bus (Wrightbus) led the way, with an 11.3% share, followed by Daimler with 10.7% and VW Group, through its Traton Division, with a 9.4% share.

Looking ahead

Despite domestic brands leading the way in 2023, taking the top two positions in the electric-bus manufacturers chart, it is likely that Chinese OEMs will fight back. With very low production costs, these brands can be more competitive when it comes to pricing, which may entice buyers.

Some local manufacturers are claiming that Chinese brands are heavily subsidised by the country’s government, and this leads to an unfair advantage in the European market.

It is, therefore, expected that Brussels will be keeping a close eye on the electric-bus market to ensure that competition is fair. Those countries that are not governed by the EU will also likely be watching the situation.

Go to Autovista24 for related articles.

Is bigger really better for BEV batteries?

Autovista24

Bigger batteries may remedy range anxiety, but smaller power-storage units can reduce costs and purchase prices of battery-electric vehicles (BEVs). Dr Christof Engelskirchen, chief economist of Autovista Group (part of J.D. Power), explores the economies of smaller batteries.

As the BEV market develops, with carmakers introducing new models, not all brands offer a variety of battery-size options. This is a valid approach, as focusing on larger power-storage units helps to tackle both range anxiety and charging anxiety.

This means peace of mind and conveys an impression of being future-proof. This is especially true as charging infrastructure continues to develop across Europe, where it currently may struggle to meet demand.

Few will question the logic of choosing a larger battery, while selecting a smaller one may raise some eyebrows. But is it rational to opt for the biggest battery unit available, especially as it is the most expensive BEV component? The short answer is ‘it depends’.

To understand whether bigger really is better, some facts need to be unpacked. This can be achieved by comparing the standard and the long-range variants of the Tesla Model Y and Volvo EX30, with a focus on the rear-wheel drive (RWD) single-motor variants.

The Model Y was not only the best-selling car in Europe last year, but it also took the global title. Meanwhile, the recently introduced EX30 emphasises mass-market compatibility, in a vehicle segment where this has been absent for so long.

The cost of greater range

When comparing online transaction prices for new vehicles after fees and applicable company discounts, the initial challenge for bigger batteries is revealed. An additional range of approximately 140km costs between €3,400 and €4,500 (net). This price increase is smaller for Tesla than for Volvo, both in absolute and relative terms.

As a side note, the Model Y is attractively priced, and Volvo needs to offer an additional discount of €2,100 (net) to maintain the required distance between transaction prices. The larger Model Y also offers three times the boot volume of the EX30, while also being around 50cm longer and nearly 10cm taller and wider.

Transaction price difference by battery size for Tesla Model Y and Volvo EX30 in Germany

BEV batteries
Source: Manufacturer websites and Autovista Group analysis.

Note: € values are net (exclude VAT). Data from May 2024.

Surprisingly, the WLTP consumption figures do not differ much between each model’s battery variants. In fact, the long-range versions seem to operate more efficiently. Both carmakers use different battery technologies according to the intended range. Their smaller batteries use a lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) chemistry, while the larger units use a lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide (NMC) makeup. This is the primary contributing factor to the different battery efficiencies.

Small and economic?

So, how are battery sizes handled in leasing contracts of 36 months and 60,000km? Under its business leasing offer, Tesla charges a moderate €42 (net) per month for more range. This takes the range of the Model Y from an already considerable 455km (WLTP) to 600km (WLTP).

Across one year this accumulates to €504 of additional cost, and roughly €1,500 over three years. This is less than half of what would be paid if the vehicle was purchased outright.

Care by Volvo, the carmaker’s long-term rental and subscription service model, sits at a monthly premium of €59. This adds up to €708 a year and approximately €2,100 over three years. Under this plan, the EX30 goes from a lower range of 337km (WLPT) to a solid 476km (WLTP).

Despite these relatively small uplifts, the price still clearly points towards the smaller battery being the more economical choice. However, it is important to consider how usage impacts utilisation costs. When driving in higher-mileage scenarios, BEVs with a smaller range may require substantially more frequent public charging stops, which are more expensive and less convenient.

Testing with two scenarios

Two scenarios can be used to simulate these economic conditions, alongside certain assumptions.

In the first scenario, 80% of the annual 20,000km mileage covers short trips where all charging takes place at home or the workplace. Here, electricity costs are comparatively lower, at €0.25 per kWh (net) in Germany.

The remaining 20% of the annual mileage (4,000km) is made up of long-distance trips. This consists of four short weekend or business trips of 500km each and two larger journeys of 1,000km each.

It is assumed that the driver charges the vehicle to 100% ahead of each trip. Additionally, public charging points are only used when the remaining range reaches 40km, at which point the battery is recharged to 80%. This makes sense in terms of convenience, as it takes roughly the same time to charge from 20% to 80% as it does from 80% to 100%. The costs of fast charging at public infrastructure are set at €0.5 per kWh (net) in Germany.

For the sake of simplicity, real-life ranges are assumed to be 80% of the respective WLTP values for short distances and 65% for longer journeys, conducted at much faster speeds. These assumptions are in line with real-life consumption levels which have been observed, recorded and published in the public domain. Regardless, the overall results are not sensitive to these assumptions.

In the second scenario, the driving pattern is modified so that half of the mileage, 10,000km, is spent on longer trips. This equates to 10 weekend or business trips of 500km each and five longer journeys of 1,000km. The remaining assumptions are unchanged.

Smaller cost savings

Under these scenarios, public-charging costs come down when switching from a short-range model to a long-range one. This is the case for both the Model Y and the EX30, however, the savings are not as significant as some might hope.

The annual cost savings accrued due to less public charging is only between €59 and €62 a year in scenario one and between €149 and €154 in scenario two. Savings partially erode as the car still needs to be charged, albeit at more affordable domestic or company wallboxes.

Annual cost difference when moving from a standard to a long-range BEV in Germany

electric vehicle
Source: Manufacturer websites, Autovista Group research and analysis.

Note: Leasing rates and charging costs are in € and net (exclude VAT). Vehicles are held for 36 months and the annual mileage is 20,000km. The starting point of ‘lease rate short range’ comes from manufacturer websites and represents the annualised monthly business rate. To balance this comparison, the Tesla Model Y has €111 added each month for insurance. This is because the carmaker does not include insurance in its offer, but Volvo does. Data is from May 2024.

Overall, with net cost savings, it is still more economical to opt for the smaller battery in both scenarios. This means the total cost of ownership (TCO) advantages remain for the smaller battery versions after simulating the more expensive stops at public chargers.

There is a noticeable difference between Tesla and Volvo. The annual TCO difference for the Model Y is only between €406 and €475 in both scenarios. This is because of the smaller premium required for the long-range model versus the standard-range version when compared to Volvo. For the EX30, the TCO difference is between €614 and €669 per year when choosing the larger battery over the standard one.

Calculating convenience

The added convenience of fewer public charging stops must also be considered for those BEVs with a bigger battery.

The standard Tesla Model Y offers such a good range it can handle the use case of scenario one quite well, requiring only 16 stops a year. Meanwhile, the long-range version reduces the annual number of stops from 16 to 10.

Here, the case for a smaller battery may be economically apparent, but for many people, the long-range version offers added flexibility at a small additional cost.

The longer-range variant of the Volvo EX30 reduces the number of stops more significantly from 26 to 16. Therefore, the added convenience of the longer-range version is considerable, but then so is the price premium. This makes it a tie in terms of choice, with budget and actual use case the likely deciding factors.

In scenario two, the standard-range Model Y makes 40 stops a year at public chargers. This will be enough to push most customers towards the long-range version. The TCO disadvantage of the bigger battery comes down to only €406 a year, or €27 per saved stop.

Similarly for the EX30, investing the additional €614 a year in scenario two would make sense. This would bring the stops down to 40 from 65 with the standard range version and costs €25 per saved stop.

A balanced decision

So, if the price or leasing rate increase for a larger battery is small, going big will mean an extra layer of convenience and security. This also reduces stress on developing infrastructure, with more stops requiring more chargers.

If the cost uplift is more substantial, smaller batteries will still deliver, while remaining the more economical choice. This is especially true if shorter trips define a person’s driving pattern.

However, when longer journeys underline a person’s driving pattern, it will be worth assessing the number of stops needed with the given battery variant. This will ensure a well-balanced decision between added costs, extra flexibility and greater convenience.

This content is brought to you by Autovista24.