Article Type: News

What drove unusual Chinese EV results in January?

Electric vehicle (EV) sales in China dropped dramatically in January, as the market started 2026 with a struggle. But how did different brands influence this result? Autovista24 special content editor Phil Curry examines the numbers.

China’s EV market started 2026 in disarray. Battery-electric vehicle (BEV) and plug-in hybrid (PHEV) sales were down compared to January 2025, according to EV Volumes’ latest data. Additionally, the top 10 best-selling models for both markets were mixed, with newcomers spread throughout.

BEV deliveries fell by 20.4% in January, with 346,798 units reaching customers. This was the lowest total for the technology since February 2024. Meanwhile, PHEVs suffered an even steeper drop of 35.6% to 220,867 sales.

The country’s PHEV decline was a recurring theme throughout the last half of 2025. However, the drop in BEV volumes is new. This comes after sales growth slowed towards the end of 2025. The country’s market will be hoping January’s drop is not the start of an ongoing trend.

Mixed BEV results

The top 10 best-selling BEVs in China included five models that were not on sale in January 2025. To highlight the diverse mix, only one model from Tesla and BYD featured, respectively. Both brands appeared to struggle at the start of the year.

Even last year’s best-selling BEV in China, the Geely Geome Xingyuan, dropped deliveries compared to 12 months prior. Instead, a slew of newer models took advantage of the BEV market’s slowdown, entering the top 10.

The Xiaomi YU7 headed the Chinese BEV table in January. This model began recording sales volumes in June 2025. It achieved 37,924 deliveries in the month and gained a 10.9% market share. The YU7’s delivery figure was a record for a single BEV in January. Although the model itself achieved higher sales in December 2025.

The Nio ES8 achieved second with 18,513 units sold. The carmaker has ramped up deliveries, and January represented its third consecutive month of five-digit figures. Its market share jumped to 5.3%, up from just 0.1% a year prior.

Rounding out the top three was the Tesla Model Y. With 18,072 units, its sales declined by 29.7% compared to January 2025. This was also reflected in its market share, which dropped 0.7 percentage points (pp) to 5.2%.

Newcomers storm BEV chart

Since first recording sales in September 2025, the Li Auto I6 ended January in fourth with 16,876 sales. This equated to a 4.9% market share, a positive performance for a newcomer.

Last year’s best-selling Chinese BEV, the Geely Geome Xingyuan, ended January in fifth, with 14,887 deliveries. This was a 47.1% year-on-year decline, and the model’s lowest monthly sales since it started recording sales in September 2024.

Sixth went to the Aito M7, with 13,129 sales. This was a record amount and the model’s first foray into five digits since its launch in September last year.

With 6,772 deliveries, the combined total of the MG4 and MG4 Urban took seventh. These models were relaunched in the second half of 205 in China and achieved a 2% market share in January.

The only BYD model in the top 10 was the Dolphin, which saw sales increase by 25.9% to 5,859 units. Its 1.7% market share was up 0.6pp. Eighth went to the Wuling Bingo Plus with 5,632 deliveries, a 103.5% rise compared to January 2025. It achieved a 1.6% hold of the market, a full percentage point increase.

Rounding out the top 10 was the Toyota bZ3X. The Japanese model made its top 10 debut, just nine units behind the Wuling BEV. With 5,623 deliveries, it achieved an equal 1.6% market share.

Struggles for BYD and Tesla

Both Tesla and BYD have been staples of China’s BEV market, but January’s figures could suggest a difficult year ahead.

Although the Tesla Model Y placed well, its sales decline was the second successive January drop. Meanwhile, the US brand’s Model 3 ended the first month of 2026 in 43rd place, with just 2,030 units making their way to customers.

For BYD, its Seagull model, a constant BEV top 10 finisher last year, ended January 2026 in 11th. With just 5,525 sales, this was its worst monthly total since its first appearance in the Chinese market in April 2023. Meanwhile, the Yuan Up was 14th with 5,495 units. This also marked its worst volume since debuting in March 2024.

Looking at both brands’ EV sales, January was a poor month. BYD saw a 61.6% decline to 77,209 plug-in units, compared to 201,017 deliveries a year prior. Tesla saw 20,116 deliveries, all of which took place in the BEV market. This was a drop of 40.4% compared to the same period in 2025.

Fang Cheng Bao leads the way

BYD’s woes continued in the PHEV market, a sector it dominated in 2025. Last year, seven of the best-selling top 10 came from the Chinese carmaker. In January, however, just three made it to the chart, and none saw sales growth.

Instead, it was the carmaker’s sub-brand, Fang Cheng Bao, that took the top spot with the Tai 7. The SUV, which began mass deliveries in September 2025, has been slowly climbing the PHEV table. It dominated January’s chart with 17,553 units and a 7.9% market share.

Second went to the Aito M7, with 11,901 deliveries, a 41% rise year on year. This meant a 5.4% share of PHEV sales in China, up by 2.9pp.

The BYD Song Pro led PHEV sales for the brand in January. Its share sank by 0.7pp to 3.9% as it took third with 8,650 units. This was the model’s worst monthly total since July 2021.

The BYD Qin Plus was next, with 7,527 deliveries putting it fourth, with volumes down 49.8% year on year. This too was a new low, with deliveries not hitting these depths since January 2023.

Another new model, the Zeekr 9X, took fifth with 6,594 units and a 3% market share. The model started deliveries in September 2025.

Mixed results for PHEVs

The Aito M8 was the sixth-best-selling PHEV in China during January, with 5,316 units delivered. The model first recorded sales in April 2025.

Coming in behind was the Li Auto L6, with 5,030 sales. This was a year-on-year drop of 64%. The figure was the model’s lowest since it hit the market in April 2024. It was good enough for a 2.3% market share, down by 1.8pp compared to the same point last year.

The Aito M9 took eighth, the brand’s second appearance in the January top 10. However, its 4,821-unit tally was 47.5% down compared to January 2025. This meant its market share slipped by 0.5pp, to end the month at 2.2%.

The Wey Gaoshan came ninth. Having previously moved lower numbers, the model had a stronger end to 2025. It appears to have continued this run into 2026. With 4,813 sales, it managed a market share of 2.2%, up by 2.1pp.

Rounding out the top 10 was the BYD Seal 6 with 4,666 sales. This was a drop of 67.8% and was the model’s second consecutive month of four-digit deliveries. It was also its lowest volume since it first recorded sales in May 2024. Compared to 12 months prior, its share of the market was cut in half to 2.1%.

UK BEV market stalls in February as petrol picks up

In February, the battery-electric vehicle (BEV) share of the UK’s new-car market fell for the second consecutive month. Meanwhile, petrol saw a rare increase. But are there underlying factors playing a part in these performances? Autovista24 special content editor Phil Curry examines the figures.

Last month, the UK new-car market saw its best February performance since 2004. In total, 90,100 passenger cars were registered, a 7.2% year-on-year increase, data from the SMMT shows.

February is often considered one of the UK’s slower months, as buyers wait for the traditional plate-change period in March. But it was not all plain sailing.

Nearly every powertrain saw registrations increase in the month, except diesel-powered cars and BEVs. While the internal-combustion engine (ICE) has been sliding for a while, the all-electric drop raises concerns about the electrification push.

Demand across the market was driven by private registrations, which increased by 17.6% to 35,227 units. Fleet uptake improved by only 1.8%, although it held the largest overall volume of 53,506 units.

BEV struggle continues

The UK’s BEV market appears to be struggling. In February, 21,840 all-electric models left showrooms, a rise of 2.8% compared to the same period last year.

The technology took a 24.2% market share, dropping by 1.1 percentage points (pp) as other fuel types outpaced the powertrain. It was the second consecutive decline in market share, at a time when mandated requirements are rising.

However, it is too early to suggest that the market is going to struggle in 2026. Results in the first quarter of last year were influenced by the addition of vehicle excise duty (VED) from 1 April 2025. This makes for an uneven comparison, as many drivers likely pulled forward their purchasing plans to avoid the additional fees.

There was also likely some push from carmakers to get models out. There will have been pressure to boost end-of-year figures and meet the UK’s zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate requirements.

February’s result means that across the first two months of 2026, 51,494 BEVs were delivered to customers, a 1.2% increase. However, the 22% market share was down by 0.8pp.

For 2026, the ZEV mandate requires a fleet-sales target of 33%. This was already an ambitious requirement, given the country’s overall BEV sector failed to reach the 2025 28% requirement.

Regulatory BEV impact

Currently, the UK government is pushing hard for BEV uptake. Its Electric Car Grant incentive scheme provides discounts on certain all-electric models. A new advertising campaign, championing the benefits of BEV driving, is also running across the country.

At the end of February, a charging point grant boost was announced by the government. This provided installation support to renters, flat owners, those without off-street parking and businesses. Up to £500 (€576) can be saved when buying a domestic charger, with the plans running until March 2027.

This comes at a time when the cost of public charging, especially on rapid and ultra-rapid chargers, is increasing. According to data from the RAC, ultra-rapid chargers increased from an average of 78.06p per kW in January 2025 to 83.20p per KW in January 2026. Prices for rapid chargers rose from 79.75p per kW to 82.10p in the same period.

BEVs have also been impacted by government regulatory changes. Alongside the VED implementation in April, there was the announcement of a ‘pay-per-mile’ scheme, known as eVED. Set to start in 2028, this news has done little to champion the technology’s affordability.

‘With year-to-date BEV market share at 22%, two-thirds of the 33% share mandated for 2026, March is set to be a pivotal month. Manufacturers have already invested billions in new models and discounts to drive demand, now with support from government’s Electric Car Grant, but circumstances have changed beyond expectation since the regulation was set,’ the SMMT outlined.

‘A holistic review of the transition is needed, and must be completed urgently as buyer confidence is anticipated to be weakened further amid plans to introduce eVED from 2028,’ it continued.

Petrol powers forward

For the first time since September 2025, registrations of new petrol cars enjoyed a year-on-year improvement. In February, 41,935 units were delivered, a rise of 5.2%. However, given the month’s low volumes, this equated to an increase of just 2,070 models.

This meant the fuel type took a market share of 46.5%, down by 0.9pp compared to February 2025. This was a marginally lower drop than seen by BEVs.

The strong month means that across January and February, petrol registrations increased by 0.7% to 110,692 units. This was enough for a 47.3% share of the entire market, down 2.1pp.

The UK reports petrol powertrain figures differently from other major markets and the European industry body ACEA. It merges mild-hybrid (MHEV) volumes with their equivalent ICE counterparts. This can skew the results, with the market appearing to perform much better than other countries.

In January this year, SMMT recorded 68,757 new petrol car sales, including MHEVs. Compared with ACEA’s pure petrol ICE total of 37,109 units, MHEVs made up 46% of the SMMT’s figures. Back in January 2025, this share was only 33.5%, the lowest percentage of that year.

It does appear that the UK’s petrol market is reliant on MHEVs to prevent numbers dropping further. Yet it is still performing well compared to other markets. This is once again cause for concern, with the 2030 ban just four years away.

PHEVs perform best

The standout performance in February came from the plug-in hybrid (PHEV) market. With 10,438 deliveries, volumes rose by 43.5% compared to the second month of 2025. This was the 13th consecutive month of double-digit improvement, and the second to see improvement over 40%.

This is a level of consistency that no other powertrain in the UK has matched during the same time. These results have allowed PHEVs to close on the full-hybrid (HEV) market in the UK.

In February 2025, the gap between the two was 4,158 units. Last month, this was 1,369 units. However, it has been closer at times, as the powertrains compete. With its impressive volume jump, PHEVs took an 11.6% market share, up 2.9pp year on year.

Across 2026 so far, the technology has seen a rise of 45.9%, with 28,995 units delivered. It is the only powertrain in the year-to-date chart to see a double-digit increase. Meanwhile, its 12.4% share jumped by 3.5pp.

HEVs also saw growth. Registrations rose by 3.3%, with 11,807 deliveries made in the month. This equated to a 13.1% market share, down by 0.5pp. Between January and February, 31,104 HEVs left showrooms, a 4.2% increase. The technology’s market share remained stable, dipping 0.1pp.

Diesel drags down ICE

ICE registrations, bringing together petrol, diesel, and their respective MHEV powertrains, increased by 4.3% in February. This allowed the technology to take a 51.1% market share, a drop of 1.4pp. This was not helped by diesel’s decline in the month, as the powertrain posted a 3.8% drop, with 4,080 registrations.

Meanwhile, electric vehicles (EVs), made up of BEVs and PHEVs, experienced a 13.2% improvement, driven by plug-in hybrids. Their share of 35.8% was up 1.9pp. However, it was also 15.3pp away from ICE.

Towards the end of 2025, EVs had overtaken ICE deliveries, pulling ahead by 0.2pp in December. With BEV deliveries recently stagnating, lower PHEV volumes, and an apparent resurgence for petrol, EVs have a lot of work to do to catch up again.

The same can be said for the electrified market. Adding HEVs to the EV mix, deliveries were up 10.4% in the month, with a share of 48.9%. This is the second month in a row that electrified volumes have fallen below ICE. The grouping beat the traditional powertrain grouping between September and December 2025.

In the first two months of 2026, EV registrations were up 13.8% with a 34.4% market share. Electrified deliveries increased by 10.9%, with a 47.6% hold of the overall total. However, ICE deliveries continue to lead, with a 52.4% share, despite a 0.1% decrease in volumes.

The world’s best-selling new BEVs and PHEVs of 2025

Which new battery-electric vehicle (BEV) and plug-in hybrid (PHEV) models recorded the greatest sales volumes in 2025? How did regional dynamics dictate the best-seller tables? Autovista24 editor Tom Geggus unpacks the data.

Following two years of global new PHEV sales growth outpacing all-electric cars, 2025 saw BEVs surge ahead. With 13,697,372 units taking to roads around the world, the powertrain recorded year-on-year delivery growth of 26.7%. This is according to the latest data from EV Volumes.

Meanwhile, PHEV deliveries slowed to an increase of 11.1%, down significantly from the 55.2% acceleration in 2024. Last year saw 7,217,499 plug-in hybrids making their way to customers.

Much of this came down to China’s slowing PHEV market. The country was responsible for 70.3% of the powertrain’s sales, meaning declining results impacted the global market. In contrast, Spain saw triple-digit sales growth for the technology, but it made up a far smaller global share of just 1.8%.

Between the two, the US made up 4.6% of the world’s PHEV market, with sales up 4.8%. Then came Germany with 62.5% growth and a 4.3% share. The UK had the fourth largest PHEV market, accounting for 3.1% of sales globally. The country saw deliveries increase by 34.5%.  

The slowdown was highlighted by an increase in December’s global volumes of just 0.9%, as 758,073 sales were recorded.

BEVs bounce ahead

In contrast, China saw its BEV market pick up speed last year, with growth reaching 27.6%. Despite a smaller portion of global sales compared to PHEVs, it still dominated global deliveries at 59.1%.

This was still far ahead of the next biggest market, the US, which saw sales fall by 3.9%. In total, 8.7% of all-electric car sales took place in the country.

Given China’s slowing EV market and emissions regulation changes in the US, the dynamic of the global EV sector could shift in 2026 and beyond.

Germany followed with 4% of the global BEV market as sales increased by 43%. The UK was 0.5 percentage points (pp) behind with a 3.5% share as sales increased by 24.2%. France saw all-electric sales increase by 13.6% as it made up 2.5% of all-electric deliveries.

In December, BEVs managed a global increase of 12.4%, as 1,376,827 units made their way to customers.

Best-selling BEV: Tesla Model Y

The Tesla Model Y was the world’s best-selling BEV of 2025. With new variants and designs launched, it was the only electric vehicle (EV) to exceed the one-million delivery mark. In total, 1,085,521 units made their way to customers as it retained the market lead it has held since 2022.

However, within an increasingly competitive space, the model saw its sales fall by 7.5% year on year. This meant its market share shrank from 10.9% in 2024 to 7.9% last year.

Most of the Model Y’s sales in 2025 took place in China. Given the country’s greater EV market development, this should come as little surprise. However, the US was only 9.2pp behind, with 30% of the model’s overall sales taking place there.

Behind these two formidable markets came South Korea, Turkey and Canada, representing 4.6%, 2.9% and 2.6% of the BEV’s sales.

The Tesla Model Y was helped by a strong December. 129,650 units were sold in the month, boosted by its traditional quarterly reporting period. This was, however, 4.3% down year on year.

Tesla takes second as China dominates

The second-best-selling BEV last year had four things in common with the market leader. It was another Tesla, it saw updates in 2025, it retained its position from 2022 onwards, and its deliveries fell.

The Tesla Model 3 saw sales decline by 5.5% to 499,685 units in 2025. This meant its market share dropped by 1.3pp to 3.6%.

The Model 3 saw 40.1% of its sales take place in China. But once again, the US was only 9.1pp behind at 31%. The all-electric sedan saw positive uptake in the UK, with 3.1% of its deliveries occurring in the market.

In December, the Model 3 placed second thanks to Tesla’s quarterly reporting. It achieved 55,198 sales, a 5.6% dip year on year.

The Geely Geome Xingyuan, also known as the EX2 in some locations, ended the year in third. A relative newcomer in the BEV market, it first recorded sales in September 2024. It saw a marked increase of 800% to 473,948 units as its market share jumped by 3pp to 3.5%.

While the Tesla Model Y and Model 3 each recorded sales across more than 75 markets, the Xingyuan contrasted heavily. It only posted deliveries in four markets, China, Brazil, Mauritius and Colombia.

However, the latter three markets noted relatively minimal sales compared to China. It saw 99.5% if its sales take place domestically. The model is scheduled to enter major European markets in 2026.

The Geome Xingyuan saw 43,185 sales in December alone, as it increased volumes by 161.9% year on year. This capped an impressive first full year on sale for the Chinese BEV.

Eight Chinese BEVs in top 10

The Xingyuan began an avalanche of BEVs from Chinese carmakers. Eight of the top 10 in the best-sellers list came from the country.

The Wuling Mini was fourth as it saw sales climb by 65.3% to 431,779 units. This gave it a market share of 3.2%, up from 2.4% in 2024. The BYD Seagull, also known as the Dolphin Surf in some markets, took fifth. However, its sales fell by 13.3% to 409,550 units. This took its share down by 1.4pp to 3%.

The Xiaomi SU7 came sixth as its market share increased by 0.6pp to 1.9%. This was thanks to year-on-year sales growth of 85.3%, reaching 258,824 units.

With a similar 84.2% rate of growth, the BYD Yuan Up, also known as the Atto 2, recorded 252,441 deliveries. Its share climbed by 0.5pp to 1.8%.

The BYD Dolphin saw a 4.6% rise in sales to 227,352 units. Even though this was a better volume than in 2024, greater competition meant the BEV saw its market share shrink. It accounted for 1.7% of all BEV deliveries, down from 2%.

The BYD Yuan Plus, also known as the Atto 3, saw sales decline by 33.7% to 225,133 units. This resulted in a 1.5pp decline in share to 1.6%. In 10th, the Xpeng M03 enjoyed a 264.7% sales increase to 177,150 units. Its grip on the market increased to 1.3% from 0.4% in 2024.

Best-selling PHEV: BYD Song Plus

While BYD was able to capture four of the top-10 best-selling BEV positions, it excelled in the PHEV market. In total, it claimed seven of the best-selling slots in the year, including first place.

The best-selling PHEV in 2025 was the BYD Song Plus, known in some markets as the Seal U. This extended its winning streak, after it claimed the title in 2024. Last year it recorded 328,094 sales, taking 4.5% of the market.

However, like the majority of BYD’s PHEVs in the top 10, it saw its deliveries fall compared with 2024. Its volumes declined by 9.8%, while its share was eroded by 1.1pp to 4.5%.

At 50.8%, the Song Plus saw over half of its sales take place in China. Single-digit shares were recorded in 49 other markets. This included Turkey, Mexico, the UK and Brazil, accounting for 7.8%, 7.5%, 6.3% and 5.5% of its sales respectively.

The end-of-year success came despite a fall in monthly performance. It ended December in fifth, with 22,226 units delivered, a 49.1% year-on-year decline.

Qin Plus takes second

In comparison, the Qin Plus was the second-most popular PHEV of 2025, but only recorded sales in 10 countries. China accounted for the vast majority of its deliveries at 96.2%. Globally, its volumes declined by 15.9% to 292,572 units. This meant it took a 4.1% market share, down 1.3pp.

The model still topped the PHEV chart in December, thanks to 40,818 deliveries, a 30.1% increase compared to the same month in 2024.

The BYD Song Pro took a marginally larger fall. Its share stumbled by 1.4pp to 3.2% as its sales decreased by 22% to 231,143 units. While China accounted for 78.2% of its sales, Brazil managed 10.5%, followed by Mexico at 4%. Highlighting the Song Pro’s struggles, it ended December in fourth, with its 24,070 sales down by 26.4%.

The BYD Seal 6 took fourth in the global PHEV top 10 at the end of 2025. Its sales increase by 3.1% to 206,136 units. This made it one of two BYD models in the top 10 to achieve this positivity. However, this was not enough to stop its market share from slipping. It accounted for 2.9% of all PHEV sales last year, down from 3.1%.

The first non-BYD model in the top 10 was the Li Auto L6 in fifth. It saw sales drop by 13.2% to 166,965, taking a 2.3% share, down 0.7pp. The BYD Qin L took sixth with a 2.3% grasp on the market. This reflected a drop of 1.2pp as sales slowed by 29.1% to 162,817 units.

The BYD Destroyer 05 took seventh in 2025 even as its deliveries dropped by 32.7% to 150,677 units. Its share also took a downturn, hitting 2.1% from 3.4% in 2024.

Share increases possible                                                      

The top seven highest-performing PHEVs in the world all saw their grip on the market weaken in 2025. However, this was not the case throughout the top 10.

After first recording sales in April 2025, the Aito M8 claimed a share of 2.1% with 148,934 deliveries. The BYD Song L came ninth, as its share increased to 2% from 1.9% in 2024. The model’s volumes increased by 16.8% to 142,301 units, the only other BYD to achieve this in 2025’s top 10.

The Galaxy Starship 7, also known as the Starray, first recorded sales in November 2024. Across 2025, its deliveries soared by 512.8% to 126,461 units. This meant its market share climbed by 1.5pp to 1.8%.

While the global PHEV market slowed in December, two models saw impressive performances in the last month of the year. The Fang Cheng Bao Tai 7 ended the month second in the PHEV table. It saw 34,086 sales, accounting for 4.5% of the global total. Meanwhile, the Aito M7 placed third with 26,468 deliveries. This was a 97.3% year-on-year improvement, the best result in the top 10. This gave it a 3.5% market share, up from 1.8% recorded a year prior.

BYD sees surging new-car sales in a declining German market

The German new-car market declined for the first time in seven months in January, fuelled by internal-combustion engine (ICE) losses. However, new arrivals were still able to record surging volumes. Autovista24 journalist Tom Hooker unpacks the figures.

Germany’s new-car market struggled in January, with 193,981 registrations representing a 6.6% decline year on year. This was driven by a 14.4% slump in private deliveries, according to the KBA. Conversely, the commercial market grew by 2.1%.

In a familiar trend, electric vehicles (EVs), made up of battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), provided a boost. However, ICE models placed downward pressure on volumes.

In this case, the force of petrol and diesel declines prevailed. A stagnating hybrid market, combining full and mild hybrids, was unable to provide any assistance. Moreover, while EV growth remained strong, it did slow significantly.

External factors may have also influenced Germany’s sluggish start to the year. The Federal Government adjusted its GDP growth forecast downwards at the end of January, from 1.3% to 1%.

Private consumption in Germany is projected to rise by just 0.8% in 2026 according to the Annual Economic Report. On top of this, unemployment figures reached a 12-year high in the country during January, Reuters highlighted.

So, as economic growth and labour market momentum slow, this could cause delays in new car purchases. It may also push more drivers towards financing agreements instead of buying a car outright.

Overall, January knocked the German new-car market off its footing. However, some brands performed better than others in a slowing market.

Which brands recorded growth?

Volkswagen (VW) recorded more deliveries than any other carmaker in the German new-car market during January. This was despite suffering a double-digit decline compared to the previous year. Fellow VW Group brand Skoda was the country’s second-best-selling marque in the month. However, unlike VW, it enjoyed a double-digit improvement.

Domestic marques Mercedes-Benz, BMW and Audi took third, fourth and fifth, respectively. SEAT secured sixth, despite suffering the biggest year-on-year decline out of the 10 best-selling brands, at 29.8%. Opel, another Stellantis brand, enjoyed a 27.4% sales increase in seventh.

Behind, Ford endured a 11.1% drop in eighth, as Hyundai took ninth. Fiat rounded out the top 10 with an 87.2% surge compared to January 2025. This improvement made it one of the fastest-growing carmakers in the month. The marque with one of the largest volume surges was BYD, with a 1,018.7% year-on-year uptick to 2,629 registrations.

Lynk & Co saw even greater growth of 1,175%, but only to 51 units. Leapmotor saw a triple-digit increase, alongside Xpeng and Polestar. But once again, these brands’ results were also based on lower volumes.

Slowing EV growth

While carmakers saw varied registration growth, the electric vehicle (EV) market continued its streak of double-digit improvements. Volumes increased by 23.5% in January compared to 12 months prior.

This growth seems impressive at first glance, yet it marked a significant slowdown. It was the slowest EV registrations performance since December 2024. With 64,482 units hitting the roads, it also marked the lowest monthly delivery total since August 2025.

Smaller volumes can be explained by January typically being a slower month for new-car registrations. However, with EVs playing an increasingly important role in the overall market performance, maintaining growth rates has become crucial.

The powertrain group made up 33.2% of overall deliveries in January, up 8.1 percentage points (pp) year on year.

‘The passenger car market has made an extremely cautious start to the new year. For sustainable overall market growth in 2026, we need a further increase in BEV order intake,’ commented VDIK president Imelda Labbé.

Are incentives holding back demand?

Germany’s new EV incentives are set to boost registrations of plug-in powertrains. Buyers can submit funding applications for the new scheme, applicable to both BEVs and PHEVs, retroactively from 1 January 2026. The subsidy is expected to scale with taxable household income and family size. It is also dependent on the vehicle’s powertrain.

However, applications must be submitted through an online portal, which is expected to open in May 2026. This could mean that some buyers are withholding purchases to ensure incentives are applied closer to the point of sale. But for now, the market will need to survive without the immediate aid of subsidies.

‘Customers now need clarity as quickly as possible about the modalities of the BEV subsidy that has been promised since January,’ Labbé confirmed.

Elsewhere, the ZDK urgently appealed that the government does not waste time in implementing the incentives.

‘Delays in the implementation process have been causing uncertainty among companies and customers since the announcement of the EV subsidy two months ago,’ highlighted ZDK president Thomas Peckruhn.

BEVs losing momentum?

Of the two EV technologies, BEVs saw marginally stronger growth. Registrations improved by 23.8% compared to 12 months prior, with 42,692 units leaving forecourts. This was the smallest all-electric increase in percentage terms since June 2025. Despite this, its share soared by 5.4pp to 22%.

PHEVs enjoyed a 23% uptick in volumes, with 21,790 units. Yet, this was its lowest improvement since December 2024. The powertrain captured 11.2% of total deliveries, up 2.7pp year on year.

ICE maintains declines

In line with other major European new-car markets, registrations of ICE-powered models declined again in Germany during January.

Volumes slumped by 25.5% in the month, with 71,004 units. This represented the powertrain group’s biggest year-on-year drop in percentage terms since June 2025. Its share fell by 9.3pp to 36.6%.

Petrol suffered the bigger drop of the two fuel types, with a 29.9% delivery downturn. This was its fourth consecutive double-digit decline, and its biggest monthly fall since June 2025. The powertrain recorded 43,695 registrations, nearly half of its total from January 2024.

Petrol’s share slipped to 22.5%, down by 7.5pp year on year. It also marked the closest that the fuel type has ever been to BEVs in terms of market share. Just 0.5pp separated the two powertrains in January, compared to a 13.4pp gap one year ago.

Diesel deliveries dropped by 17.1% to 27,309 units. Like petrol, this marked its fourth consecutive double-digit decline. Furthermore, it also represented the lowest diesel volume since August 2025. Yet, its 14.1% market share, although down by 1.8pp year on year, was the powertrain’s highest since July 2025.

Has hybrid growth already peaked?

The hybrid market endured a 1.8% dip in January, with 58,206 new models taking to the road. The result comes after marginal growth in December and an uncharacteristic decline in November. These results signal a shift in the technology’s consistent upward momentum. Before this, hybrids achieved 14 months of consecutive growth.

While it pushed past petrol to become Germany’s most popular powertrain in 2025, recent performances may suggest that hybrids have reached their natural peak. The technology accounted for 30% of overall registrations in January, up 1.5pp year on year, but well below the 8.1pp rise achieved by EVs.

So, as a transition technology from ICE models to EVs, the tide may have already shifted in the latter’s favour. Moreover, as EV charging infrastructure improves and technology becomes more advanced, buyers may be less compelled to choose a hybrid.

What is undeniable is that electrified models, comprised of EV and hybrid volumes, now dominate the German new-car market. The powertrain group made up 63.2% of overall volumes in January, up 9.5pp year on year. This was helped by a 10.1% growth in registrations to 122,688 units.

Has a new leader emerged in Europe’s BEV market?

Across most of 2025, Tesla and Skoda topped Europe’s monthly battery-electric vehicle (BEV) standings. In November, a new leader emerged in the region. Autovista24 journalist Tom Hooker reveals the results.

While Europe’s electric vehicle (EV) market had a new leader in November, the continent’s growth trajectory remained unchanged.

EV sales, including BEVs and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), enjoyed year-on-year growth of 29.3% from January to November 2025. A total of 3,442,316 new models were delivered in this timeframe, according to EV Volumes.

In November alone, sales were up 36.3% to 367,617 units. This was nearly identical to October’s year-on-year improvement of 36.6%. This relatively stable period for EV demand helped propel the market further forward.

Deliveries were up 23.8% across the first half of 2025. However, the same consistency cannot be seen when looking at BEV and PHEV performances separately.

Contrasting EV momentum

In November, BEVs enjoyed their biggest monthly sales increase since January 2025, with volumes surging by 37% to 253,865 units. The powertrain’s cumulative figure sat at 2,286,225 deliveries, up 27.3% compared to the same period in 2024. This represented a gradual rise from its growth of 24.9% during the first half of 2025.

On the other hand, the extraordinary PHEV growth seemed to slow. Sales improved by 34.9% in November to 113,752 units, the powertrain’s lowest monthly growth rate since April. This was above PHEVs’ cumulative increase of 33.6% from January to November, with 1,156,091 deliveries.

Europe’s new EV leader

Combined deliveries of the Renault 5 and Alpine A290 claimed Europe’s monthly EV best-sellers title in November. This was despite stiff competition from Tesla and Skoda, which dominated in 2025.

Deliveries soared by 169.1%, with 11,338 new models sold in the month, the duo’s highest-ever monthly sales total.

The Renault 5 and Alpine A290 narrowly bested a resurgent Tesla Model 3, which landed just 130 units behind. The more affordable version of the sedan, called the Model 3 Standard, was recently introduced to Europe. This may help to boost demand in the coming months.

A further 55 units back was the Skoda Elroq, which topped Europe’s EV market in October. With 12 months of recorded sales, the compact SUV’s delivery ramp-up appears to have plateaued. From September to November, its monthly sales figures did not exceed 11,395.

Fourth was the Tesla Model Y. This marked the first time since October 2022 that the crossover finished behind its smaller sibling. While the Model 3 enjoyed a double-digit improvement year-on-year, its big brother suffered a 38.1% drop to 10,989 units.

Even so, the Model Y was still not far from victory. Just 349 units separated first and fourth place in November’s best-selling BEV table.

VW Group’s BEV competition

Some distance behind, the Volkswagen (VW) ID.7 was embroiled in its own battle. It posted a 41.1% improvement to 7,343 sales, the all-electric models’ highest monthly total since March 2025. A further 227 units behind was the Skoda Enyaq in sixth. Unlike its fellow VW Group model, the SUV endured a 30.2% drop to 7,116 units.

The VW ID.4 placed seventh, with a 6.6% increase to 6,483 sales. Hot on its tail was its sibling, the ID.3. The hatchback posted 6,312 deliveries in November, translating to a 35.3% improvement year-on-year.

This meant that half of November’s top 10 was filled by VW Group models. Covering a variety of segments and body types, just under 5,000 units separated the BEVs.

Dolphin diving into the top 10

BMW’s iX1 claimed ninth, only 15 units behind the VW ID.3. However, it saw even greater growth compared to 12 months prior, with volumes up 41.9%.

Rounding out the top 10 was the BYD Dolphin Surf, with 5,972 units. This was the first time the hatchback featured in Europe’s monthly BEV top 10, after deliveries began in May 2025.

The Dolphin Surf’s volumes took a significant step up in November, meaning it may not have reached its full potential in Europe. If the model’s sales continue to rise, it could feature in the continent’s top 10 bestseller list by the end of 2026.

Yet, with November’s performance, the hatchback has established itself as a strong contender as a small BEV in Europe. It faces plenty of competition, including the Renault 5 and the Alpine A290. The Kia EV3, the Citroën ë-C3 and the Volvo EX30 are also popular small BEVs.

Additionally, more new models will enter the fray in 2026. This includes the Kia EV2 and BYD Atto 2 DM-i, which were presented at the Brussels Motor Show.

Tesla remains in control

After 11 months of 2025, the Tesla Model Y looked assured to win the title of Europe’s best-selling EV. The crossover’s 126,702 sales were 45,093 units ahead of its closest rival, the Skoda Elroq. This gap is likely to grow, with the Model Y expected to experience its usual end-of-quarter delivery peak in December.

Meanwhile, the second-place SUV was relatively safe from the chasing pack, with 81,609 sales between January and November.

However, the Renault 5 and the Alpine A290 could potentially benefit from a last-minute slip-up, presuming their momentum is maintained. The duo sat third with a combined total of 78,787 units.

Moving up the table

Moving up two places to fourth was the Tesla Model 3, after a strong November. With 74,974 sales, it could challenge for third, considering its quarterly delivery cycle.

Fifth was occupied by the Skoda Enyaq. The SUV recorded 70,985 sales in the first 11 months of 2025. Just 481 units behind was the VW ID.3, which fell two positions to sixth. Its sibling, the ID.4, claimed seventh with 69,426 units, after finishing ahead of the ID.3 in November.

The VW ID.7 landed in eighth thanks to 68,080 sales. It placed ahead of the ID.3 and ID.4 in November, meaning these three positions could change in the full-year standings. Kia’s EV3 secured ninth with 61,197 units, while the BMW iX1 landed 10th, posting 59,091 deliveries.

BYD’s PHEV success

BYD’s European PHEV success continued in November. The carmaker’s Seal U topped the standings during the month, with 5,682 new models delivered. This represented a 263.5% volume increase compared to 12 months prior.

Two other SUVs followed behind: the VW Tiguan and the Volvo XC60. Both models are competing against the Seal U for the 2025 PHEV best-seller title. The former recorded 4,927 sales in November, up 27% year on year. Conversely, the XC60 endured a 23.6% delivery decline, with 4,312 new models taking to European roads.

The Mercedes-Benz GLC was just 54 units behind in fourth. The SUV enjoyed a sales boost of 25.9% compared to November 2024. Then came the MG eHS with 3,607 deliveries, equating a year-on-year surge of 100.5%. Sixth was taken by the Ford Kuga, however, it faced a 1.5% drop in sales to 3,457 units.

The first non-SUV in November’s PHEV top 10 was the Audi A3. The model posted its highest monthly delivery figure since March 2024, with 3,271 deliveries. Compared to November 2024, this was a jump of 938.4%.

The Jaecoo J7 made its third consecutive top 10 appearance after only beginning to record significant volumes in February 2025. During November, the SUV posted 2,976 sales, putting it in eighth.

BMW’s X3 trailed the Jaecoo J7 by just 87 units. The German model recorded 2,889 deliveries in the month. This brought the total of SUVs featured in the month’s top 10 best-selling models to eight. The VW Golf finished in 10th. The hatchback recorded 2,858 sales, up 121% year-on-year.

All set for PHEV glory?

From January to November, the BYD Seal U sat at the top of the European PHEV market. With its November triumph, the model extended its lead, bringing its cumulative total to 57,949 units.

Its closest challenger was the VW Tiguan. The PHEV trailed the top spot by 2,271 units. This left the Tiguan with a mountain to climb to take full-year victory. The Volvo XC60 was third with 53,057 sales. Despite being in the fight for the title throughout the year, its chance of victory heading into December appears slim.

Fourth went to the Ford Kuga, which has remained consistent in 2025. Its 41,818-unit total was comfortably ahead of the BMW X1 in fifth. After narrowly missing out on November’s top 10, it recorded 36,257 units after 11 months of the year. The Mercedes-Benz GLC followed in sixth, with 34,839 deliveries.

MG’s eHS secured seventh in the cumulative standings, thanks to 33,383 sales. Not far behind was the Toyota C-HR, taking eighth with 32,149 units.

Fighting for a top 10 finish

Multiple models are fighting for a 2025 top 10 finish in the PHEV table. At the end of November, the Cupra Formentor held ninth with 26,695 deliveries. Just 99 units behind was the VW Golf, which entered the top 10.

However, both models are far from safe. The two most likely candidates to cause a last-minute shock are the BMW 5-Series and the Jaecoo J7. The models posted 26,588 and 26,194 units between January and November, respectively. In particular, the Jaecoo J7 was well positioned to enter the top 10 after a strong run of monthly results.

The Toyota RAV4, BMW X3, and Hyundai Tucson also have an outside chance of squeezing in. The three SUVs recorded 25,880, 25,550 and 25,116 units, respectively.

Which of the world’s automotive markets will electrify the fastest?

Is China’s lead insurmountable? Could Northern America make a comeback? What does the Automotive Package mean for Europe? How are the non-Triad markets faring? EV Volumes’ head of forecasting, Neil King, unpacks the latest predictions with Autovista24 editor Tom Geggus.

Covering passenger cars and light-commercial vehicles (LCVs), EV Volumes has stepped up its global light-vehicle market forecast. Data for 2025 is expected to confirm 92.7-million-unit sales, up by 4% year on year. This is compared with the 3.6% growth outlined in September’s forecast. 

EVs, including battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), are predicted to make up 25.5% of these sales. This means approximately 23.7 million new plug-in vehicles will hit roads worldwide. Moving forward, improved outlooks in China, the non-Triad markets, and Europe offset the downgrade to Northern America.

The global electric vehicle (EV) share is forecast to reach 27.5% in 2026, 43.2% in 2030, 64.6% in 2035, and 83.2% in 2040. That said, budget pressures and policy shifts may threaten investment in incentives and charging infrastructure. Various legacy vehicle makers are reducing their EV targets. This has further weakened the outlook for EV adoption in Northern America.

China’s booming EV market

The EV boom has continued in China, with the plug-in share rising from 13.9% in 2021 to 44.3% in 2024. The market’s strength is supported by favourable total cost of ownership and increasingly competitive pricing.

Given economic headwinds, the Chinese government has focused on boosting domestic consumption, with additional support directed toward state-owned OEMs. The economic situation appears positive, with the OECD upgrading the 2025 GDP growth outlook for China to 5%.

Vehicle demand also remains resilient. EV Volumes has slightly upgraded its 2025 light-vehicle sales forecast to 27.8 million units, up 7.1% year on year. A scrappage programme was extended beyond the original January 2025 deadline. However, it has been suspended in several cities, which could disproportionately reduce demand for EVs given their higher bonus levels.

Additionally, in October 2025, China ended its national EV subsidy programme, as reported by Reuters. It also excluded new-energy vehicles (NEVs) from the list of strategic emerging industries in its latest five-year development plan. This includes EVs, extended-range electric vehicles (EREVs) and fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs).

While direct subsidies are gone, purchase tax exemptions remain in place, although they are expected to phase out by 2027. Also, some local governments still offer targeted incentives.

Targets to hit

In 2025, China set a target of approximately 15.5 million total NEV sales. The country also pledged to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 7% to 10% by 2035. This marked the nation’s first commitment to absolute emissions cuts.

PHEVs have taken an increasing share of the EV market. This rose from 18.3% in 2021 to 42.3% in 2024 and was largely due to strong sales of BYD and Li Auto EREVs.

While Chinese OEMs continue launching new PHEVs and EREVs, BEVs are regaining momentum, bolstered by aggressive discounting initiated by BYD. As such, BEVs are forecast to account for 61.2% of EV sales in 2025 and about two-thirds by 2031.

In China, EVs are forecast to represent 56.4% of all light-vehicle sales in 2025. This is set to increase to 76.4% in 2030, 89.7% in 2035, and 96.1% in 2040.

Forecast volumes are based on retail sales (not wholesales), excluding exports and inventory build-up. This explains the difference from the typically higher wholesale-based figures published by other agencies.

Barriers in Northern America

In Northern America, including the US and Canada, light-vehicle sales rose by 2.9% in 2024, following 12.4% growth in 2023. The EV share increased from 9.4% in 2023 to 10.2% in 2024. In contrast to China, the region’s electrification looks to have lost a lot of energy.

Last year saw multiple major influencing factors hit the region’s light-vehicle market. Canada saw funding for the iZEV programme run out in January, with BEV uptake falling and no replacement scheme announced. In March, the US government announced 25% import duties on vehicles. Then the ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’ act ended EV tax credits in September.

Ford dropped plans for several all-electric models in the US and is replacing the all-electric F-150 Lightning with an EREV version. It was not alone, with Stellantis making similar strategic shifts, TechCrunch reported. This points to a greater share of PHEVs and EREVs as manufacturers balance electrification with customer preferences and profitability pressures.

EV Volumes has slightly increased the 2025 light-vehicle sales forecast for Northern America to 18.2 million units. This is up 2% year on year. The EV share is now expected to reach 9.9% in 2025 and rise only modestly to 10.1% in 2026.

These small gains will be primarily supported by Canada and the rollout of more affordable models. This includes the standard versions of the Tesla Model 3 and Model Y. EV shares are then expected to climb to 20.9% in 2030, 39.3% in 2035, and 58.6% in 2040. This is well below the predicted global EV share of over 83.2% in 2040.

European market uncertainty

Western and Central Europe’s light-vehicle market grew by 1.7% year-on-year in 2024, following 14% growth in registrations in 2023. Changing goods tariffs, developments in Ukraine, and ongoing tensions in the Middle East have all created regional sales uncertainty. The possibility of higher inflation, oil prices, and energy costs could also lead to weaker private consumption.

However, the OECD‘s December 2025 economic outlook predicts that GDP in the Euro area will gain 1.3% in 2025. This is slightly higher than the September outlook, which anticipated 1.2% growth.

The EU proposed tariff reductions in August, enabling the EU-US trade agreement. This lowered duties on the automotive sector from 27.5% to 15%. The recently ratified EU-Mercosur and EU-Mexico free-trade agreements have also boosted the region’s automotive competitiveness.

Low rate of growth

EV Volumes forecasts that light-vehicle sales in Western and Central Europe will grow by 0.3% year-on-year in 2025. This is higher than in the September 2025 forecast, which projected a 1% decline. At 15 million units, this is far below the 18 million light vehicles registered in 2019.

EV Volumes does not expect the European market to return to 2019 levels within the current forecast horizon, up to 2040. A slight dip in demand is also expected in 2030 and 2035. Demand will likely be pulled forward into 2029 and 2034, triggered by the stricter EU emissions targets.

Stagnation in 2040 reflects the underlying cycle effect. Earlier peaks in replacement demand and fleet renewals unwind, and the market normalises after several years of elevated recovery volumes. Light-vehicle sales are expected to grow by 1.7% in 2026, hinging on a complex interplay of regulatory and economic factors.

EV Volumes forecasts that European EV sales will grow 30.2% year on year in 2025 to 3.99 million units. This means they will represent 26.6% of all light-vehicle sales.

BEV volumes are forecast to grow 28% year-on-year, accounting for 67.5% of all EV deliveries in 2025. PHEV sales are expected to increase by 35.1%. EVs will reach a 31.1% share of European light-vehicle sales in 2026 and 36.6% in 2027. This will be driven by new model launches, lower prices, and stricter emissions targets.

EU Automotive Package

In December 2025, the European Commission unveiled its Automotive Package. It introduced a revised CO2 reduction pathway and compliance mechanisms between 2030 and 2035.

Previously, carmakers had to cut tailpipe CO2 emissions of passenger vehicles by 100% by 2035. Under the proposal, they will instead need to reach a 90% reduction compared with 2021 levels. The remaining 10% will be offset through low-carbon steel, e-fuels, and biofuels. So, PHEVs, EREVs, FHEVs, mild hybrids, and even pure internal-combustion vehicles (ICE) could remain available beyond 2035.

The package also suggests greater flexibility for the 2030 target. Manufacturers could get a three-year compliance period between 2030 and 2032 to achieve the 55% emissions reduction. For LCVs, the 2030 CO2 reduction target would be eased from 50% to 40%, acknowledging slower electrification progress.

Additional proposed measures include mandatory zero and low-emission fleet share targets at the member-state level. There could also be updated labelling rules for EV range and energy consumption. ‘Super credits’ for small, affordable EVs produced in the EU are on the table too. A €1.8 billion battery support package is proposed to accelerate the European battery value chain as well.

The proposal remains subject to approval by both the EU Parliament and the EU Council. This means it is not reflected in EV Volumes forecast. However, if adopted as outlined, EVs may only account for between 55% and 60% of European light-vehicle sales by 2030. This would increase to between 80% and 85% by 2035. By 2040, this may hit between 90% and 95%.

These projections assume emissions balancing between 2030 and 2032 and continued alignment of national policies. Several markets, such as Norway, Sweden, and the Netherlands, are likely to maintain stricter targets. While currently committed to a 2030 ICE ban, the UK is expected to follow the EU’s revised framework.

Non-Triad measures

In non-Triad markets, EV volumes rose for the fourth consecutive year in 2024. This was thanks to greater product availability, stronger incentives, and lower import duties in selected countries. Combined EV sales reached 1.36 million units in 2024, up 34.2% year-on-year.

Light-vehicle sales managed the economic impact from US trade tariffs better than expected in 2025. However, EV Volumes has slightly decreased the 2025 light-vehicle sales growth forecast to 4.4%.

Indonesia introduced VAT exemption for low-emission vehicles in January and a reduced VAT rate thereafter. Japan increased the budget for EV subsidies under the Clean Vehicle Energy Subsidy Programme. India cut import duties for premium EVs as part of a new manufacturing programme in June.

Thailand revised its EV policy to encourage exports and prevent domestic oversupply. Each EV produced for export now counts as 1.5 units toward local production obligations.

In response to US tariffs, South Korea launched temporary stimulus measures. This includes financing support and higher EV subsidies. It is also planning additional tax exemptions for EVs. Accordingly, the EV share in non-Triad countries is forecast to reach 6.9% in 2025, hitting around 2.2 million units.

However, budget constraints driven by economic concerns may limit future incentive schemes. Several countries have introduced new tariffs on imported vehicles. This includes a 50% tariff in Mexico and up to 30% duties in Turkey. There will also be an end to incentives for imported, completely built-up BEVs in Indonesia.

The EV share is projected to reach 17% in 2030, 41.8% in 2035, and 76.8% in 2040. This generally lags the global adoption curve by about five years until 2035.

New-car registrations in the UK fall amid unusual BEV result

The UK’s new-car market continued its shaky 2025 run in November, as the government announced electric vehicle (EV) pay-per-mile plans. But did this hamper battery-electric vehicle (BEV) growth, or did something else play a part? Autovista24 special content editor Phil Curry examines the figures.

The UK new-car market saw another monthly volume drop in November, as its rollercoaster ride continued. 151,154 new passenger cars were registered, according to the latest data from the SMMT. This was down 1.6% year on year, marking the sixth monthly volume drop between January and November.

After 11 months of 2025, the UK’s new-car market was up 3.4%, with 1,874,271 registrations. The country is likely to see over two million deliveries for the first time since 2019, the SMMT forecasts. Based on available data, December would need to see a 10.7% decline in volumes to miss this milestone.

Private car sales fell by 5.5% in November. Combined with 0.2% growth in the volume-leading fleet sector, the new-car market was likely to struggle. Business registrations, which make up a small percentage of overall volumes, increased by 18%. This equated to a rise of just 561 units, however.

EVs prop up uneven market

Like other major European markets, the UK is seeing registrations of petrol and diesel models decline each month. However, unlike others, the SMMT merges mild-hybrids with their respective petrol and diesel powertrains.

This means that reporting of hybrids is based solely on full-hybrid (HEV) models. This provides a more accurate view of the market’s performance. Other countries rely on the full and mild-hybrid figures to boost electrified vehicle growth. But in the UK, mild hybrids help to offset internal-combustion engine (ICE) losses.

So, the country’s electrified market consists of models that can run only on electric power for a period of time. However, with lower hybrid figures, the UK relies on EVs, including BEVs and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), to bolster growth.

In recent months, BEV and PHEV deliveries have helped overcome declines in petrol, diesel and HEV figures. All-electric models are the second-most-popular powertrain in the UK at present, while PHEVs have rivalled HEVs in terms of volumes.

Yet, this makes the UK’s new-car market very precarious. Should one EV powertrain slow, or falter, it can push the entire market into decline. This is what happened in November. While HEVs had a slow month, so too did BEVs. The all-electric powertrain suffered its lowest growth rate in nearly two years, according to the SMMT.

BEV stagnation in November

In total, 39,965 BEVs were registered in November. This was a 3.6% year-on-year improvement, equating to an extra 1,384 units. It was the third time in 2025 that the powertrain registered single-digit growth.

However, the technology did secure a 26.4% share of the market, its second-highest of the year. This was 1.3 percentage points (pp) more than in November 2024. Yet this was also the lowest improvement of the year so far.

Between January and November, 426,209 BEVs were delivered to customers, an improvement of 26%. The technology’s market share sat at 22.7%, a rise of 4pp. The UK’s automotive market will be concerned by this result. This is because the figure is far below the zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate target of 28% for 2025.

What caused the BEV result?

The slow growth in November came despite the government creating an incentive package in July, aimed at increasing BEV uptake. Clearly, such an improvement did not surface last month.

To make matters worse, a recent announcement from the government could hamper EV adoption. This was the announcement that both BEVs and PHEVs would be subject to pay-per-mile tax charges from 2028.

November 2025 has come up against a strong period of comparison. At the end of 2024, carmakers were rushing to deliver BEVs. Brands were making a last push to meet the 2024 ZEV mandated target of a 22% market share.

November 2024 saw BEV deliveries improve by 58.4%. It was the powertrain’s biggest improvement of the year and was followed by a 56.8% rise in December 2024.

Fast forward to today, and some of the financial penalties for missing mandated targets have been relaxed. There is also more flexibility in borrowing against future sales. So, compared to one year ago, carmakers seem less stressed to pull forward BEV deliveries.

It is unlikely that the recent announcement in the Autumn Budget impacted November figures. Even if the early media reports broke the pay-per-mile plans three weeks before, many sales would have occurred beforehand.

Pay-per-mile problems?

The UK market could start to see an impact from the pay-per-mile plans in the coming months. BEVs have seen their financial benefits come under pressure. This year saw the technology become eligible for Vehicle Excise Duty and the Expensive Car Supplement.

The BEV market is crucial for the UK to maintain registration growth, yet recent announcements have increased growth uncertainty. ZEV mandate targets are only going to increase, and the ban on new petrol and diesel cars looms. This makes continued BEV adoption vital.

‘Even in a fragile market, ZEV uptake continues to rise, which is exactly what we need,’ commented SMMT chief executive Mike Hawes. ‘But the weakest growth for almost two years, ahead of the government announcing a new tax on EVs, should be seen as a wake-up call that a sustained increase in demand for EVs cannot be taken for granted.’

‘We should be taking every opportunity to encourage drivers to make the switch, not punishing them for doing so, or else the ambitions of government and industry will be thwarted,’ he continued.

PHEVs provide EV boost

PHEVs were the UK’s best-performing powertrain in terms of volume growth. In total, 18,005 units were delivered, a rise of 14.8%. This equated to 2,318 more units compared to November 2024.

PHEVs secured 11.9% of the market in the month, a rise of 1.7pp. Since April, the technology has consistently held between 11.2% and 12.5% of total monthly registrations, as it pushes to match HEV volumes.

In the first 11 months of the year, PHEVs out-grew all other powertrains, with a registration increase of 34.8%. This equated to a total of 208,245 units and an 11.1% market share. The technology has improved its hold by 2.6pp, second only to BEVs when it comes to share growth.

Combining BEVs and PHEVs, the EV market reached 57,970 deliveries in November, a 6.8% year-on-year rise. This was the lowest volume increase of 2025. It also marked the first time this year the EV market has seen only a single-digit improvement.

Plug-in models controlled 38.4% of the market, up by 3.1pp. After 11 months of 2025, EVs saw an improvement of 28.8%. In total, 634,454 new plug-ins took to UK roads. This was enough for a 33.9% share, up 6.7pp.

Rollercoaster 2025 for hybrids

The UK’s HEV market is experiencing a rollercoaster year. Apart from the plate-change months of March and September, growth has been in single digits. The technology has also endured four months of decline.

November saw the lowest growth of the year, with just 1.3% more HEVs delivered to customers. This equated to a 19,836-unit total, ahead of the same month in 2024 by 245 units. The powertrain took a 13.1% share of the market, up 0.3pp.

The UK figures highlight the impact of mild-hybrids on other major European markets. Many of these countries have seen their overall hybrid registrations dominate monthly deliveries. Conversely, the UK’s HEV sector trails petrol and BEV sales. It is also coming under threat from PHEV volumes.

Electrified market dominates

When hybrid numbers are added to EV figures, the electrified market is leading in the UK. With 77,806 registrations in November, figures were up 5.3% year-on-year. The technology held 51.5% of the market, a dominant position, and a rise of 3.4pp.

During the first 11 months of 2025, the electrified market was not as dominant. It still sat behind ICE and is unlikely to overtake it in 2025. In total, 896,209 units were delivered, a 21.7% year-on-year improvement.

The powertrain group’s market share sat at 47.8% at the end of November. While this did prove a 7.2pp rise, it was also 4.4pp away from ICE.

To finish ahead in the full year, the electrified market has to overcome a deficit of 81,853 units to ICE. In November, the technology registered 4,458 more passenger cars than ICE models.

HEVs played their part in the electrified growth this year. From January to November, 261,755 units were delivered, a 7.5% improvement. This gave the technology a 14% share of the market, a 0.6pp rise compared to the same period last year.

Petrol remains the leading powertrain

Petrol and diesel registrations, including mild-hybrid powertrains, continued to decline in November. The regular drops in unit volume suggest that electrified models will overtake ICE. Should current trends continue, this will likely occur in 2026.

Last month, petrol volumes fell by 5.9%, to 66,180 units. This was still enough for a 43.8% market share, a drop of 2pp year-on-year. Meanwhile, diesel struggled again with a 24% decline. The fuel type’s 7,168-unit volume was enough for just 4.7% of the overall market, down from 6.1% a year prior.

Between January and November, petrol remained the dominant standalone fuel type, by some margin. Its 47% market share was 24.3pp higher than its nearest competitor, BEVs.

Yet this hold was still down on the 53% achieved in the first 11 months of last year. Meanwhile, its cumulative total of 880,331 units represented an 8.3% drop compared to the same period of 2024.

Diesel struggles continue

Diesel has been left behind at the bottom of the UK new-car market. With 97,731 registrations between January and November, the powertrain will likely only just make it to six figures in 2025. By the end of November, volumes were down 15.8%. Its market share of 5.2% was 1.2pp lower than the same time last year.

Combined, the ICE market achieved 73,348 deliveries in November, an 8% year-on-year decline. With 48.5% of the market, it lost its dominance for the third month in succession.

Across the first 11 months of 2025, 978,062 ICE models were registered, a 9.1% drop. However, thanks to eight months of dominance between January and August, it still led the market, with a 52.2% share. This was, however, down by 7.2pp.

So, the regular dominance of ICE is now at an end. It appears 2026 will start with electrified models leading the annual figures for the first time.

BYD makes quick progress in the European EV market

As Europe’s electric vehicle (EV) market grows, newer entrants such as BYD are establishing themselves. Autovista24 journalist Tom Hooker examines the latest figures from EV Volumes.

EV sales in Europe have continued to charge forward, with a year-on-year uptick of 27.1% between January and September. According to EV Volumes, a combined total of 2,720,459 battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) were sold.

This growth was spearheaded by a 34% improvement in the third quarter, as 926,519 new EVs were delivered.

So far this year, PHEVs have recorded greater growth rates than BEVs. EV Volumes does include extended-range electric vehicles in its plug-in hybrid figures. PHEVs enjoyed a 31.5% rise in demand during the first nine months of 2025, with 919,112 deliveries. This is an improvement from the 21.7% growth in the first half of the year.

Monthly PHEV volumes have ramped up throughout 2025, peaking with a 55.7% increase in September, reaching 130,179 sales. This marked the powertrain’s best year-on-year growth since June 2021, and its highest monthly figure since December 2022.

This means PHEV’s share of the EV market increased to a 33.8% slice between January and September. This was a 1.1 percentage point (pp) rise from its position during the same period of 2024.

BEVs saw greater volumes across the first three quarters of the year. A total of 1,801,347 all-electric models took to European roads from January to September. This was an improvement of 25% year on year.

The technology saw 257,297 deliveries in September alone, capping a ninth consecutive month of double-digit growth. This was its highest monthly total since December 2022 and marked a 20.3% increase compared to one year prior.

So, with growth in almost every month so far this year for both powertrains, which brands have capitalised, and which have fallen behind?

Chinese brands increase EV share

Chinese brands have undoubtedly increased their EV presence in Europe. Many carmakers from the country have seen their market shares rise this year, as volumes have surged.

One example is BYD, which recorded a 302.6% year-on-year EV sales improvement over the first three quarters of 2025. This means out of the top 10 best-selling EV brands in Europe this year, it is comfortably the fastest-growing.

BYD was eighth in the EV sellers ranking between January and September. The carmaker’s 119,085-unit total translated to a 4.4% market share, up 3pp compared to the first three quarters of 2024.

Between July and September, the Chinese brand’s volumes rose by 284% to 48,336 registrations. This placed it seventh in the quarterly table, with a 4.8% market hold, up from 1.8% during the third quarter of 2024.

Seal U steals the show

The highlight of BYD’s EV range was the Seal U plug-in hybrid. It led Europe’s year-to-date PHEV market for the first time in September, moving past the VW Tiguan with 45,837 units. This also marked the first time a model from a Chinese brand has led Europe’s cumulative PHEV or BEV standings.

This was thanks to a 10,089-registration tally in September alone. This made it the month’s third-best-selling EV in Europe, behind only the Tesla Model Y and Tesla Model 3.

Xpeng has also made significant progress in Europe this year. The brand’s volumes soared by 185.3% to 12,729 units after nine months of 2025. Its G6 SUV has been its best performer, with 8,751 so far this year.

Meanwhile, Lynk & Co saw a 20.8% increase in deliveries from January to September, with 6,351 registrations. The majority of the carmaker’s volume came courtesy of its 01 PHEV.

Barriers to entry remain

The entrance of new brands does not come without hurdles, however. BEVs produced in China still face steep EU import tariffs, which were imposed in October 2024. This means increasing their European EV presence is not easy. Carmakers may consider localising production or raising list prices.

Some brands are focusing on plug-in hybrids. While PHEVs are subject to the regular 10% EU import duty, the technology does navigate around the BEV tariff rate.

For example, PHEVs made up 85.1% of Lynk & Co’s EV sales. Conversely, Xpeng focused solely on BEVs, which represented 100% of its EV deliveries. BYD had a more balanced strategy, with PHEVs accounting for 40.1% of its EV total.

VW doubles down on EVs

Volkswagen (VW) continued to sell the greatest volume of EVs in Europe after the first nine months of 2025. The brand’s total of 305,746 deliveries equated to a 104.6% surge. In turn, VW’s market EV share rose by 4.2pp to 11.2%.

The German marque’s pace is not slowing down. It recorded the most EV registrations in Europe from July to September, with 101,683 units equating to an 84.8% year-on-year improvement.

The brand has seen many of its EV models perform well this year. In the BEV market, the VW ID.3 sat fourth after the first three quarters of 2025, with 57,699 units. The ID.4 took seventh, followed by the ID.7 in eighth, with 56,186 and 53,570 registrations, respectively.

For nine months in 2025, the VW Tiguan has been in a hotly contested battle at the top of the PHEV market. It sat in second with 45,277 deliveries, putting it just 560 units behind the BYD Seal U.

BMW’s comfortable position

BMW’s EV sales recorded a 15.6% improvement from January to September, posting 245,276 deliveries. It was secure in second position at the end of September. The brand trailed VW by 60,470 units, while sitting ahead of third by 60,046 deliveries.

The manufacturer captured 9% of the European EV market. However, due to increased competition, this was a 0.9pp drop compared to the first three quarters of 2024. In the third quarter alone, its share fell by 1.3pp to 8.7%. This was despite a 17% rise in volumes to 80,809 units, which placed it in second.

However, the brand only placed one model in the cumulative top 10 of both the BEV and PHEV rankings. The BMW iX1 was the 10th best-selling BEV in Europe, with 46,775 deliveries, 3,446 units behind ninth. Meanwhile, the BMW X1 landed fifth in the PHEV standings, posting 30,314 deliveries from January to September.

Stagnation for Mercedes-Benz?

Mercedes-Benz was the third German brand to make Europe’s EV top three. This was thanks to 185,230 sales across the first three quarters of the year.

However, this was down 0.6% compared with the same period of 2024, mainly caused by a poor first quarter. Consequently, its share in the first nine months of 2025 dropped from 8.7% to 6.8%.

Yet, Mercedes-Benz managed a 5.4% increase in registrations between July and September, with 63,412 units. Should Mercedes-Benz be able to replicate this result in the last three months of the year, it could avoid a full-year decline.

Just one of its models sits in the BEV or PHEV top 10, namely the Mercedes-Benz GLC plug-in hybrid. The SUV is in seventh in the year-to-date BEV standings with 25,847 units. It was closely followed by the MG eHS, just one delivery behind in eighth.

Tesla banks on Model Y

Tesla deliveries took a 29.2% drop in Europe between January and September, equating to a loss of 71,131 units. Meanwhile, its share slumped by 5.1pp to 6.3%. Yet, the brand still took fourth in the year-to-date table, with 172,582 units.

Tesla’s decline was less pronounced in the third quarter, with a 20.4% drop, to 62,557 registrations.

The Model Y and the Model 3 made up 99.3% of Tesla’s sales in Europe after three quarters of 2025. The crossover comfortably led Europe’s all-electric market after nine months of the year, with 109,524 units.

Meanwhile, the Model 3 moved up to second in September. It sat 47,738 deliveries behind its sibling, recording 61,786 registrations from January to September. Both models also locked out the top two spots in the month’s BEV table, despite their volumes falling year on year.

Audi’s growing EV presence

Audi moved up to fifth in Europe’s year-to-date EV standings, thanks to 151,005 deliveries. This represented year-on-year growth of 14.2%. However, its share fell by 0.6pp to 5.6%. In the third quarter alone, the German marque enjoyed a 33.4% uptick in demand to 51,034 units, placing it in sixth.

No Audi models featured in the BEV or PHEV top 10 tables after nine months of the year. However, the Q6 e-tron did place 10th in September’s monthly all-electric standings, with a 253.9% delivery surge to 5,323 units.

Yet, it was the Audi Q4 e-tron that was the brand’s most popular EV model after three quarters of 2025. It represented 29.3% of the carmaker’s overall plug-in figure.

Falling EV registrations for Volvo

Volvo suffered a 17.3% fall in EV sales from January to September, dropping to sixth in the year-to-date table. Its 147,339-unit total gave it a 5.4% share of the market, down from 8.3%.

The manufacturer endured an even steeper decline of 17.8% in the third quarter alone, with volumes dropping to 44,849 units. Its market hold in this period was 4.4% down from 7.9% in the third quarter of 2024.

Its Volvo XC60 sat in third in the year-to-date PHEV table with 42,555 units, just behind the VW Tiguan. The model landed fourth in September’s monthly standings, pipped by the Jaecoo J7. The SUV made its first-ever appearance in the PHEV top 10, with a record 6,122 registrations.

Skoda’s mixed EV performance

Skoda posted a 129.3% surge in plug-in deliveries during the first nine months of 2025. It sat seventh in the cumulative table with 145,385 units, as its share grew by 2.3pp to 5.3%.

This improvement was foreshadowed in the third quarter. The brand saw a 95.7% rise in volumes between July and September alone, putting it fifth. Two BEVs have led Skoda’s EV efforts, although they faced contrasting fortunes.

The Elroq moved up to third in the year-to-date BEV table, with 58,680 registrations, just 3,106 units behind second. It also took third in September’s monthly BEV standings, with 9,972 deliveries.

Its older sibling, the Enyaq, fell two spots to sixth in the cumulative BEV chart, with 56,581 units delivered.

Cupra and Renault fall

BYD’s improvement came at the expense of Cupra and Renault, who were victims of the continent’s competitive nature. The brands dropped to ninth and 10th, respectively, in Europe’s EV standings after the first three quarters of the year.

This was despite a volume increase of 80.4% for the former, as its share grew from 2.9% to 4.2%. Meanwhile, Renault’s EV registrations surged by 82.8%, equating to a 1.3pp rise in share to 4.1%. Yet, neither brand featured in the third quarter’s EV top 10.

The combined total of the Renault 5 and Alpine A290 represented over half of Renault’s EV total between January and September. The hatchback sat fifth in the BEV chart after three quarters of 2025, with 56,642 deliveries.

Cupra’s most notable model was the Formentor, which secured ninth in the PHEV top 10 after three quarters of the year. This was thanks to 21,480 deliveries.

Is China’s new PHEV struggle affecting brands’ EV sales?

China’s plug-in hybrid (PHEV) market appears to be slowing following another month of struggling growth. But how are these performances affecting domestic brands? Autovista24 special content editor Phil Curry examines the data.

In September, China’s PHEV market, including range-extended electric vehicles, once again showed signs of a slowdown. Its 0.4% year-on-year improvement was the lowest result since a 51.4% decline in June 2020, according to EV Volumes data. Meanwhile, the BEV market grew once again in September. In total, 836,711 models were sold, which equated to a rise of 26.5%.

Between January and September, China’s PHEV market saw 3,859,629 passenger car sales, a 21% increase year on year. At the end of the first half of 2025, this growth was at 35.7%, highlighting the powertrain’s third-quarter struggles.

Meanwhile, the BEV market saw an improvement of 37.4% across the first nine months of 2025.

The overall Chinese electric vehicle (EV) market rose by 30.3% over the first three quarters of the year. However, this was down by 10.1 percentage points (pp) compared to the growth in the first half of 2025.

The PHEV problem

Some of the most popular PHEV models in China suffered declines in the third quarter. Combine this with the growth recorded at the end of 2024, and the last quarter of 2025 may prove difficult.

The market’s issues have caused problems for some Chinese brands, especially those with a stronger PHEV offering. Both Li Auto and Aito have posted overall declines after three quarters of the year.

BYD, which dominates the PHEV market, saw its numbers fall between July and September, coinciding with the PHEV slowdown. For the second consecutive month, the BYD Song Plus did not make the monthly top 10, hampering its sales growth.

The PHEV sector could play a crucial role in determining how certain brands perform for the rest of the year. Meanwhile, a strong BEV market is helping some domestic marques go from strength to strength.

BYD’s third-quarter PHEV struggles

Nine months into 2025, BYD sold the largest volume of EVs of any brand in China. But its growth slowed dramatically in the third quarter. With 52.6% of its sales coming from PHEVs, is it responsible for the sector’s poor form in the same three-month period?

Between July and September, the carmaker saw volumes drop by 19.4%. This meant its figures for the nine-month period grew by just 2.5%. In the first half of 2025, the brand’s numbers were up by 19.9%

With a 24.9% EV market share in the first three quarters of 2025, it is comfortably the region’s plug-in leader. However, its hold has slipped by 6.8pp compared with the same period last year.

It is the PHEV market where BYD has struggled the most. Six of BYD’s PHEVs made the top 10 in September this year. Of these, four models lost volume year on year, while the Qin Plus recorded an improvement of 41%. Meanwhile, the BYD Sea Lion 06 first recorded sales in June this year.

But the brand’s problems are not just related to plug-in hybrids. In the BEV market, the BYD Seagull placed fifth in September as its sales shrank by 47.3% year on year.

However, this was countered by the BYD Yuan Up in fifth, which enjoyed a 61.8% improvement. Furthermore, the BYD Dolphin saw a 41.7% uptick in demand in eighth.

The carmaker is focusing on export markets, while it maintains a diverse portfolio of products in its domestic market. For now, BYD can rest on its laurels, with no real challenger yet in sight.

Geely’s standout performance

The standout brand so far this year has been Geely, including its Galaxy subsidiary. The carmaker has seen volumes increase by 234.7% in the first nine months of 2025. This equated to an 8.8% market share, up 5.4pp.

Geely took a stronger footing in the BEV market, with 69.5% of its EV sales coming from all-electric models. This was thanks to the Geely Geome Xingyuan, which was the best-selling BEV in China between January and September. It made up 59.1% of Geely’s BEV deliveries in the period, and 41.1% of its total sales in the nine months.

But Geely has endured PHEV struggles too. The Galaxy Starship 7, which led the market in January, has since slipped down the charts. The model did not place in the top 10 during September and sat in 10th in the cumulative results after nine months.

Yet the new Galaxy A7 may offer some hope. It made its way into the top 10 for the first time in August and placed again in September. Still, Geely’s performance after three quarters owes much to the Geome Xingyuan, which is likely to be China’s best-selling BEV at the end of 2025.

Wuling and Tesla’s rollercoaster ride

Wuling, incorporating its Baojung subsidiary, has seen inconsistent results so far this year. Yet after three quarters of 2025, the carmaker still saw volumes improve by 44.1%. Its market share sat at 5.9%, up by 0.5pp.

Like Geely, Wuling’s volumes came mostly from the BEV market. Of its EV sales, 94.1% were all-electric. The Wuling Mini was China’s third-best-selling BEV between January and September.

It was helped by its chart-topping performance in September, beating the Tesla Model Y by 570 units. This was an impressive result, considering the US brand’s quarterly push, which often sees it lead in the month.

Tesla was the fourth best-selling brand after three quarters of the year. The brand saw its volumes fall by 6.1% year on year between January and September 2025. Meanwhile, market share dropped by 1.8pp.

With a 100% focus on the BEV market, Tesla is not affected by the fluctuation in the PHEV sector. Its Model Y has performed well, but it is not leading the market as it has in the past.

Additionally, the Model 3 has seen its popularity decline. In September, its deliveries fell by 15.2% year on year, despite the brand’s end-of-quarter push.

Leapmotor leaps forward

Between January and September, Leapmotor took fifth in the brand table for EV sales, following a strong third quarter. It jumped domestic rival Chery, which took fifth in the first half. Leapmotor’s success was largely thanks to its BEVs. These models accounted for 78.6% of its EV sales, meanwhile Chery’s all-electric cars only accounted for 29.5%.

These results are more impressive considering neither brand was present in the BEV or PHEV cumulative model tables. It seems each has a higher volume of models that are popular further down the table.

In total, Leapmotor’s sales were up 116% between January and September, with a 3.8% market share. This was up by 1.5pp year on year. Chery, meanwhile, saw growth of 126.6%, with a 3.8% hold of the EV market too. This was up 1.4pp compared to the same period in 2024.

Seventh in the brands table went to Li Auto. The carmaker also struggled, with volumes down 12.3% year on year. With 92.2% of its sales coming from PHEVs, it appears the marque has been affected by the powertrain’s slowdown.

Xpeng was next, with volumes rising by 213.6% over the first three quarters. This gave the brand a 3% market share, jumping by 1.8pp. Aito was another to struggle, with a 3.6% decline in volumes. The carmaker is another with a majority of its sales coming from PHEVs. This may have led to its overall share falling by 1.1pp, to 2.9%.

Xiaomi saw the biggest gain of all carmakers in the top 10 after nine months of 2025. The BEV-focused marque saw volumes grow 281.8%, with its market share up 1.8pp, reaching 2.8%.

September surprise

China’s BEV market saw a surprising result in September. The Wuling Mini led the way thanks to 51,743 sales, a jump of 78.9% year on year. It led the Tesla Model Y, which saw 51,173 deliveries.

The US brand usually leads the end-of-quarter months thanks to its reporting style. The Model Y was able to achieve a 6.2% volume increase. However, this was not enough to top the BEV chart across January to September, symbolising its ongoing struggles.

Meanwhile, the Geely Geome Xingyuan placed third in the month. The model saw its first sales take place in the same month of 2024, albeit in small amounts. It achieved a 5.7% share of total BEV sales in September.

In the first nine months of 2025, the Geome Xingyuan continued to lead. It was 50,671 units ahead of the Tesla Model Y in second, having lost a little ground in the month. The Wuling Mini closed on the US crossover, trailing by just 5,851 units after nine months.

PHEV strength despite struggles

Despite the PHEV market’s struggles, the top two models performed well. Leading the pack in September was the BYD Qin Plus, with 28,201 sales. This was a 41% increase compared to the same month in 2024.

Following this was the Aito M8. In its sixth month on the market, it achieved 21,000 deliveries, giving it a 4.2% market share. Just 229 units behind in third was the BYD Destroyer 05. It achieved 19,771 sales, although this was a 1.7% year-on-year decline. It still held 4% of the market, a 0.1pp drop.

The results meant the BYD Qin Plus extended its lead at the top of the cumulative PHEV chart. However, a strong performance from the BYD Seal 6 in September saw it overtake the struggling BYD Song Plus to sit second. The latter model did not place in September’s PHEV top 10.

Can battery health certificates answer big used-EV questions?

Battery certificates and state of health (SOH) checks are at the forefront of a growing used electric vehicle (EV) market. How will they help answer the big used-EV questions from retailers and buyers? Tom Hooker, Autovista24 journalist, investigates the subject.

For the modern used-car buyer, it has become commonplace to access a plethora of information about any model online. This research can be done through portals or directly from retailers. Yet, the sector is in the midst of a big shift.

As battery-electric vehicle (BEV) and plug-in hybrid (PHEV) registrations increase across new-car markets, the supply of used EVs rises. This presents a new challenge for retailers. They need to convince consumers to buy EVs, while also learning how to accurately price them and make profits.

Battery SOH checks could be a solution to this challenge. They can provide customers with peace of mind while revealing a car’s history, value, and selling potential to retailers.

‘EVs are not degrading the same way as petrol or diesel vehicles. Mileage is not sufficient to have a clear view of the current health of an EV. That means for the exact same mileage, you can buy two EVs with a very different fate,’ BIB batteries CEO Pierre-Amans Lapeyre told Autovista24.

‘Knowing the SOH, you can have the history, the current value and the future. It gives you what should be the real residual value of the vehicle. I would much rather have the SOH of an EV than know its mileage, because from what we have seen on the market, two vehicles with the exact same SOH could have a completely different mileage,’ he added.

Fostering used-EV uncertainty

‘Nowadays, you can advertise a car with photographs, with descriptions, and with diagnostics. Everybody can do that. So, I think as an industry we have solved the problem fairly well with the technology available,’ outlined Roland Gagel, CARA board member at the Used Vehicle Retail Summit.

Roland Gagel, CARA board member

‘We see that this market is very rational, buyers are looking for transparent offers and want to see pictures and descriptions,’ he added. Gagel then explained that BEVs are a different prospect, with the most important aspect of the car being the battery.

He highlighted that current advertisements of used EVs are not clear enough and can foster uncertainty among potential buyers. Late entrants to the EV space could be particularly impacted.

Convincing late adopters

Gagel explained that when buying or selling a three-year-old petrol or diesel car at 70,000km, you can assume it has a well-maintained engine. This means you can easily drive the car for ten more years.

However, the buyer confidence around longevity is very different for electric devices. Mobile phones are one such example. ‘We are not talking about the early adopters, the people who already wanted to have an EV five years ago,’ said Gagel.

‘We are talking about the people who now start to think about it and will maybe finally be convinced. They know that after four or five years, their mobile phone is dead, and the battery is not okay. So, what does that mean for my three or four-year-old EV?

‘I am maybe going to want to resell it after eight or nine years and want to buy another one. So, we have this problem, which is very often the range, because in the end, that is what the driver feels.’

There are tools available to help drivers understand more about the lifespan and health of their EV. Most models now show average energy consumption on their infotainment screen. This can be divided by the total energy storage of the battery, which provides the real, approximate range of the vehicle.

So, customers can be provided with a wealth of information on the condition of a used EV. However, how this information is used and shared by the retailer makes all the difference.

Limited certificate usage

Gagel showed an example of an online used-car portal from a remarketing company. Here, the price of a BEV was marked down by €2,000 without any information on why the model’s price had been reduced.

Additionally, Gagel searched the mobile.de website for a popular German BEV. With certain parameters selected, he got 160 results. Out of this, 50 had a battery SOH certificate. However, in most cases, the actual SOH value could not be found in the description.

‘Imagine you sell a car without mileage, and the buyer calls the dealer to know the mileage. What do you do with such an advertiser? Just skip it and go to the next,’ he commented.

Gagel then went on to show the carmaker’s own website for its used cars. He selected two of their BEV models, which gave him 2,600 search results. However, only 40 of these models had a battery certificate shown on the portal. Lapeyre also noted the lack of SOH certificates on online adverts.

‘There are a lot of studies about the fear of individuals buying EVs, they do not trust the lifespan of the battery. I would say around 50% of dealers today put SOH on their vehicle adverts. You will not sell your EV if you do not have this information,’ he stated.

Regulatory impacts

The introduction of new regulations could also help improve the clarity between used EV sellers and potential customers. SOH checks would be a pivotal technology in achieving this clarity.

For example, the upcoming Euro 7 regulations state that passenger cars must retain at least 80% of their original battery capacity after 5 years or 100,000 km, whichever comes first. Then, after 8 years or 160,000 km, the battery capacity must be at least 72%.

Furthermore, the regulation states that EVs must have SOH monitors onboard. Data from these monitors must be displayed to users, retrievable from diagnostics, and included in the vehicle’s Environmental Vehicle Passport.

‘The regulation that comes with Euro 7 and the battery passport will foster the transparency of the SOH. The regulation will start in 2027, so in the used-car sector, you will see it from 2028 with the first short-term rentals,’ noted Gagel.

‘But I think the real effect will come in 2029 and 2030. So, we have five years to go to sell used cars without the battery pass and Euro 7,’ he added.

Increasing consumer transparency

‘There is an unsourced fear about the end of warranty for EVs. When they end, people are freaked out, and it is not rational,’ said Lapeyre.

According to a 2024 McKinsey & Company survey, 31% percent of prospective EV buyers say they are likely or very likely to consider a used EV for their next vehicle purchase. For those EV sceptics, 49% were concerned about unclear battery degradation.

So, the industry cannot wait another five years to start improving the used EV sales experience and calming EV concerns.

‘The key point for us is how to get this into a B2C sale and how to show the positive part of the batteries. How do we convey this message? How can we train the salespeople to sell this off to the consumer? That will be very important for the industry,’ said Gagel.

‘On the dealership side, I think they need to provide their clients with battery certificates. They need to train their salespeople so that they can show and express the value of an EV to their clients,’ commented Lapeyre.

‘What can you do as an industry? For me, it is very clear, used-car offers need to become more transparent. They are not transparent today,’ said Gagel.

‘In the end, if the buyers do not have clear information about the battery, they will assume there is a problem. The clearer we are and the more we are pushing in the direction of transparency, the more likely it will be that BEVs will recover from their residual values.

‘It is not just good to measure the vehicle, but we have to make sure it gets into the vehicle description, so the customer knows we have good cars to sell,’ concluded Gagel.

Can European car sales survive economic and political uncertainty?

Have forecasts for European light-vehicle sales retained their marginal growth amid economic and political uncertainty? Neil King, head of forecasting at EV Volumes, reviews the latest data with Autovista24 journalist Tom Hooker.

EV Volumes forecasts that Western and Central European light-vehicle sales, made up of passenger cars and light-commercial vehicles (LCVs), will decline by 0.3% year-on-year in 2025.

This is a change from the March 2025 outlook, which projected a 0.7% growth. It is also below the 1.7% increase recorded in 2024, and significantly behind the 14% registrations growth in 2023.

A total of 14.91 million new light vehicles are expected to hit the road this year, a drop of around 148,800 units from the March forecast. Moreover, this figure is still well below the 18.04 million light vehicles registered in 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic and supply-chain crisis.

EV Volumes does not expect the European market to return to that volume level within the current forecast period, which stretches to 2040. A 1.9% growth in European light-vehicle sales is projected in 2026, down from the March projection of a 2.1% increase. This improvement depends on a complex mix of regulatory and economic factors.

Current European uncertainty

There is uncertainty surrounding the impact of changing goods tariffs, developments relating to the war in Ukraine, and increasing tensions in the Middle East. Furthermore, EV Volumes assumes that a rising risk of rising inflation, oil prices, and energy costs will lead to weaker private consumption across the region.

Additionally, the OECD’s June 2025 economic outlook predicts that GDP in the Euro area will grow by only 1% in 2025. Due to weaker goods exports to the US and a struggling services sector, registrations of LCVs are already being affected by trade frictions and tariffs. Passenger car sales are expected to follow suit.

Meeting the lower CO2 emissions targets and circularity requirements mandated by the European Commission will also necessitate a major increase in electric vehicle (EV) sales.

This could trigger a price war, supported by lower lithium costs. Carmakers may also restrict the supply of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles to avoid costly emissions fines.

Ultimately, the outcome will depend on how OEMs balance short-term profit with long-term compliance and market shifts. Considering these developments, has the European EV outlook changed?

European EV sales growth

European EV sales of light vehicles are forecasted to grow by 23.1% year-on-year in 2025 to 3.77 million units. This is up from the 3.53 million sales and 15.1% volume increase projected in March. It also marks a turnaround from the market’s 2.4% decline in 2024.

EVs are expected to represent 25.3% of total European light-vehicle sales this year, a positive revision from the 23.4% share forecast in March. Furthermore, it is a notable improvement from the 20.5% EV market hold in 2024 and the 21.3% share in 2023.

Driven by new model launches, lower prices, and emissions targets, EV Volumes forecasts that EVs will reach a 29.2% share of European light-vehicle sales in 2026. This is significantly higher than the 26.4% market hold predicted in March.

In 2027, the EV share is expected to rise to 35.4%. Again, this is up from the previous forecast’s projected share of 33.3%.

Battery-electric vehicle (BEV) volumes are forecast to grow by 20.9% year-on-year in 2025, accounting for 67.4% of the 2025 EV mix. Meanwhile, plug-in hybrid vehicle (PHEV) sales are expected to increase by 27.8%.

Looking further forward, EVs are expected to capture 62.9% of European light-vehicle sales in 2030, up from the March forecast of a 60.5% share. This market hold is predicted to increase to 93.5% in 2035, up from 93.1% in the previous outlook. In 2040, EVs are projected to account for 99.4% of the total European market.

The forecast for 2035 and beyond includes some tolerance for timing interpretations of the ICE new-car sales ban and allows for exemptions for vehicles that may be deemed unsuitable for full electrification.

Regulations affecting European EVs

In March 2025, the European Commission unveiled the Industrial Action Plan for the European Automotive Sector. It proposed measures to support the industry’s competitiveness and transition to zero-emission mobility.

One of these was the relaxation of the 2025 CO2 emissions targets for cars and vans, which was officially approved in May 2025. More specifically, the compliance period has been extended from one to three years, providing manufacturers with greater flexibility to avoid fines.

However, some measures were not included in the Action Plan, such as the discussion surrounding the potential exclusion of PHEVs from the 2035 new-car ICE ban.

Consequently, EV Volumes’ forecast for BEV adoption anticipates moderate share growth in 2025 and 2026.

Then, a more significant increase is expected in 2027, as manufacturers strive to meet the average CO2 emissions targets of 93.6 g/km for cars and 153.9 g/km for LCVs over the three-year period.

To meet these targets, EV Volumes calculated that the BEV share of EU light vehicles needs to average at least 20% between 2025 and 2027. This means a 20.5% share is required for passenger cars and an 18% market hold is needed for LCVs.

Yet OEMs are not forecast to achieve this 20% average for all light vehicles by 2027 without additional EU-wide stimulus. This is mainly due to slower LCV electrification. Instead, EV Volumes anticipates that the targets will be met over the 2025 to 2028 period.

This forecast could be revised if further exemptions and lower targets are put in place. New EU-wide or national incentives could also alter EV share projections.

Incentives altering European projections?

An example of these incentives can be found in Italy, where €597 million in funding for a scrappage scheme has been announced, as reported by Il Sore 24 Ore.

Meanwhile, Germany is considering the reintroduction of BEV incentives in 2025, after subsidies stopped at the end of 2023. However, the implementation of new funding may be delayed due to economic conditions.

Furthermore, more affordable BEVs are expected to enter Europe. Leading Chinese OEMs like BYD are also planning to expand in the region.

On the other hand, PHEV registrations are exceeding expectations. This was the major factor in June’s upward revision for 2025 EV sales. The additional volume is driven by the eased CO2 targets, expanded PHEV offerings from both European and Chinese players, and delayed launches of low-cost BEVs.

Additionally, the UK’s ban on new petrol and diesel models from 2030 still allows all hybrid types to be sold until 2035.

The country’s government has also announced the return of EV incentives from 16 July. The scheme will reduce the cost of some new EVs by up to £3,750 under grants. This signals a change in policy for the UK and will impact future forecasts.

Varied European country outlooks

The current EV Volumes outlook sees the UK registering 702,911 EVs in 2025, a sharp increase of just over 131,000 units compared to its 2024 total. The powertrain grouping is expected to take a 39.6% market share in 2025, up from 32.5% in the previous year.

Italy will hope its new incentives can help to boost EV adoption, which has been sluggish compared to other major light-vehicle markets. EVs are forecast to represent 11.6% of the market in 2025, up from 8.7% in 2024. Sales are projected to increase by just over 44,000 units to 166,104 registrations.

An effective implementation of subsidies can be seen in Spain, which has helped BEV and PHEV volumes to soar. The reintroduction of the incentive scheme includes grants, tax breaks, and support for charging.

In 2025, the country is projected to see a year-on-year gain of over 80,000 units to 201,801 EV registrations. The EV share is expected to rise from 13.6% in 2024 to 21.9% this year.

Even without incentives, EV sales in Germany are on track to bounce back to 2022 levels. The powertrain grouping is forecast to record 829,398 sales in 2025, an increase of over 246,000 units compared to last year. EVs are expected to account for 30.2% of the total light-vehicle market, up from 21.4%.

On the other hand, France is currently suffering a decline in EV volumes. This is reflected in the current outlook, which sees it dropping nearly 5,600 sales year on year to 456,953 units. However, this is largely due to the wider light-vehicle market declining as the EV share is predicted to grow to 32.3% from 31.4% in 2024.

LCV EV uptake lags

LCVs still lag in EV uptake. A registrations growth of 43.7% growth in 2023 was promising, especially compared to a 16.2% improvement for passenger cars. However, both the volume and share of electric LCVs declined more than passenger cars in 2024.

High costs relative to diesel models and limited driving range hindered adoption. Nonetheless, new models, such as the Ford Transit, Renault Trafic, VW Transporter and updated Stellantis electric vans, are expected to drive demand.

EV Volumes forecasts that the EV share of LCVs will rise from 5.4% in 2024 to 10% in 2025. Its market hold is projected to increase to 13.5% in 2026 and reach 52.1% by 2030.

While the new-car ICE ban will accelerate the shift to electric, EV Volumes anticipates a 92.3% EV share for LCVs in 2035, compared to 93.7% for passenger cars. This is expected to rise to 99.1% in 2040.

The role of e-fuels and other CO2-neutral ICE technologies is expected to remain limited, depending largely on national tax policies. EV Volumes also expects the deployment of hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles to be limited in light commercial vehicles, with their share peaking at just 0.01%.

The regions and technology pushing public EV charging forward

The number of public electric vehicle (EV) charging points continues to grow, but which region and technology leads the way? Using the latest data from EV Volumes, Autovista24 editor Tom Geggus assesses the situation.

Charging infrastructure continues to grow across the world as EV adoption drives demand. But what is the best way to measure the volume of plug-in points currently available to the public?

Across 75 markets, EV Volumes tracks the number of locations where a certain connector type can be found. This surpasses a simple tally of station numbers, instead accounting for charger variety.

A station with two combined charging system (CCS) points counts as one location. Meanwhile, a charger offering one CCS and one CHAdeMO connection counts as two locations.

According to this classification, 3.85 million EV charging points were tallied by May 2025. This equated to an increase of 34.8% compared with the same point last year. However, this is slower than the 42.6% growth in May 2024 and far below the 81.8% recorded 12 months before that. There was an increase of 34.7% at the same point in 2022, but this was down from the 53.2% jump in May 2021.

Speedier charging?

While the rollout of public EV infrastructure might have slowed, not all technologies have developed at the same rate. Dividing charging speeds into three categories reveals some emerging trends.

some emerging trends.

The normal speed category includes type 1, 2 and 3 points, Tesla high-power wall connectors, and Chinese GB/T AC chargers. The power output in this category extends up to 24kW.

This grouping saw year-on-year growth of 71.8% in May 2023 and 58.3% in the same month last year. By May 2025, nearly 2.15 million normal-speed charging points were recorded across the 75 observed markets. This meant slower year-on-year growth of 23.4%.

The fast-charging category has followed a similar path. This grouping is made up of 22-60kW GB/T DC Chinese connectors as well as 50-350kW CHAdeMO and CCS plugs. By May this year, 1.69 million fast-charging points were tallied, up by 53% compared with the same point 12 months ago. This followed growth of 45.4% in May 2024 and 101.1% a year prior.

The ultra-fast category covers 250kW Tesla Superchargers and 350kW CCS plugs. The number of these points increased by 11.8% to 9,371 by May 2025. This grouping saw year-on-year growth of 27.1% by the same point in 2024 and 47.7% in May 2023.

Fast charging accelerates

While the ultrafast category has grown more slowly, EVs capable of charging at this speed remain in the minority. Additionally, these are often more premium models, outside of the mass market.

Meanwhile, the list of EVs capable of accessing fast charging infrastructure is far more expansive. Carmakers want to address concerns of longer plug-in times, introducing speedier charging capabilities more broadly as the technology advances.

This helps account for the fast-charging category seeing nearly double the growth of the normal grouping in May 2025. The technology also made up 44% of recorded public charging infrastructure, up by 5.3 percentage points (pp) from May 2024.

Most of this gain was at the expense of the normal speed grouping, which saw its share fall to 55.8%. At the same point last year, the technology made up 61% of all recorded plug-in points. This development follows the technological progression of EVs as they achieve faster charging speeds.

Meanwhile, the ultra-fast category shrank marginally by 0.1pp to 0.2%. This is likely due to the technology’s greater exclusivity, higher costs and greater demands on the grid. But have these charging speed trends been consistent across all regions?

Europe’s charging infrastructure

Across Europe, including the EU, EFTA and the UK, EV Volumes counted 442,804 public charging points. This equated to an increase of 14.4% compared with May 2024.

The region’s rate of growth does appear to have slowed since May 2023, when the tally jumped by 42.3% year on year. This was followed by a 29.1% increase at the same point in 2024.

With a 74.7% share, the majority of infrastructure in the region belonged in the normal speed category. However, the rate at which this category is expanding slowed to 11.7% year on year. This followed growth of 27.9% in May 2024 and 39% in the same month in 2023.

Both the fast and ultra-fast infrastructure groupings were subject to this trend as well. The fast category saw growth slow from 55% in May 2023 to 33.1% 12 months later, then 23.1% this year. This meant the technology took a 24.7% share, while ultra-fast remained stable at 0.6% over the last three years.

The Netherlands boosts numbers

While Europe has seen an increasing amount of public charging infrastructure installed, the spread was far from even. The Netherlands led the way, with 117,413 points recorded by May 2025.

This is not surprising given the country’s booming EV market. In the first five months of the year, the country recorded 80,373 new EV registrations, according to data from ACEA. This meant plug-in powertrains made up 54.1% of all new-car deliveries in the Netherlands from January to May.

Germany had the second-largest number of EV charging points, reaching a tally of 54,681. However, at 15,421 points, Germany had three times the number of fast chargers as the Netherlands at 4,429. In third, the UK reached 50,481 public chargers in total, with 18,587 fast points making up approximately a third of its overall offering.

At the other end of the spectrum, Malta had 75 normal speed chargers available. However, its smaller EV market has already experienced a drop in the first five months of the year. 835 plug-in vehicles were registered, down by 34.9%.

The EU is expected to see public EV charging infrastructure grow thanks to the Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Regulation. This year, charging stations outputting between 22kW and 150kW must be set up every 60km along the TEN-T road network.

There are also local requirements. In Germany, the Masterplan Ladeinfrastruktur, sets out a strategy to reach 1 million public charging points by 2030. Elsewhere, France aims to roll out 400,000 public charging points by 2030.

Way out in front

So, how does Europe compare with other major EV markets? According to EV Volumes, China’s new plug-in vehicle market grew by 42.2% year on year between January and May. This equated to the sale of 4.76 million units, the largest amount globally.

Accordingly, the number of public charging infrastructure far exceeded any other market. By May this year, just under 3.13 million points were available, up by 40.2% year on year. The normal category took a 51.6% share of this total, while 48.3% were fast. Ultra-fast, on the other hand, made up only 0.1% of public charging infrastructure.

As noted by the International Energy Agency’s (IEA’s) Global EV Outlook, there are important regional differences worthy of note. EV drivers in China’s densely populated urban areas rely on public infrastructure. Meanwhile, Europe has a far greater number of private chargers at home.

Uncertainty in the US

Compared with the relatively consistent expansion of charging points in China, the US has seen varied growth. The country recorded 81,693 connectors by May this year, marking a growth of 13.5%.

Normal speed chargers made up the majority of points, accounting for 77.7%, followed by fast points at 17.8%. However, where the US stood out was the far larger number of ultra-fast chargers, which made up 4.5% of plug-in points.

The National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure (NEVI) programme put aside $5 billion (€4.2 billion) to fund fast charging along corridors. However, the IEA highlights that by the end of last year, only $30 million had been spent on points which are now in operation.

Furthermore, these funds were frozen in January 2025 so the new administration could carry out a review. This put the further rollout of public EV charging infrastructure in the US into a far more precarious position.

With so many different approaches across the world, the rollout of public EV charging infrastructure will continue to be uneven.

European EV registrations rise as new model records first win

Battery-electric (BEV) and plug-in hybrid (PHEV) registrations rose across Europe in April, but which newcomer topped the BEV charts for the first time? Autovista24 journalist Tom Hooker breaks down the latest EV Volumes data.

A total of 186,827 BEVs were handed over to customers in Europe during April, up 27.7% year on year. This equated to a gain of 40,506 units. The result also continues the technology’s monthly double-digit growth streak between January and April 2025.

Meanwhile, PHEV volumes increased by 30.6% in the month, reaching 98,330 deliveries. This was the powertrain’s biggest improvement in the first four months of the year.

Registrations of all-electric vehicles totalled 765,820 units over the first third of the year. This resulted in a 27.9% growth compared to the same period in 2024. PHEVs increased deliveries by 11.5% from January to April, with 366,838 units.

Germany once again recorded the highest BEV volumes in Europe during the month. The country accounted for 24.3% of the technology’s total registrations, continuing a rebound from a difficult 2024.

France followed with a 14.3% share, then came the UK which represented 13.2% of the market. Belgium and Norway were the fourth and fifth, recording a 6.7% and 5.9% share respectively.

Germany also led the PHEV market, capturing 24.7% of the technology’s total. The UK landed second with a 14.2% share, followed by France which represented 9.6% of deliveries. Spain ended up fourth with a 9.4% share, as Italy made up 8% of volumes.

New model leads BEV registrations

The Skoda Elroq was the best-selling BEV in Europe in April, with 7,663 registrations. This was the compact SUV’s highest delivery total in only its sixth month on the market. The Elroq accounted for 4.1% of overall sales. Before April, the model had not appeared in the BEV top 10. It sat 17th in the cumulative chart between January and April.

The Volkswagen (VW) ID.3 took second place with 6,938 deliveries, up 33.4% on the same month last year. This marked its strongest monthly result since June 2024 and its highest ranking in the best-sellers table in the first four months of the year. The hatchback claimed a 3.7% market share, up 0.1 percentage points (pp) compared to April 2024.

The combined total of the Renault 5 and Alpine A290 followed, missing out on second place by just 138 units. The pair delivered 6,800 models to European customers, equating to a 3.6% share. It also marked the BEVs’ best finishing position since February.

Just 22 units behind was the VW ID.7 with 6,778 deliveries. This meant volumes of the saloon increased by 633.5% compared to April 2024. It represented 3.6% of the BEV market, up from 0.6%.

Its sibling, the VW ID.4, finished fifth. Its 6,323-unit total was a 4.7% improvement on 12 months prior. Yet, due to increased competition, its market share fell from 4.1% to 3.4%.

Skoda Enyaq struggles

The Skoda Enyaq secured sixth, continuing the dominance of VW Group in April’s BEV chart. The SUV increased registrations by 29% in April to 5,633 units. However, this was the first time it placed outside the top five in the first four months of the year. Its sales may have been impacted by the success of the Skoda Elroq. The Enyaq made up 3% of overall deliveries, stable from April 2024.

The Kia EV3 took seventh, posting 5,574 registrations in its seventh month on the market. This figure translated into a 3% share. The BMW iX1 followed in eighth, with its first appearance in the top 10 this year. It recorded 5,297 deliveries, up 17.6% year on year. The SUV represented 2.8% of the BEV market, down 0.3pp.

Ninth place went to the Tesla Model Y, with 4,805 units. Compared to April 2024, when it led the best-sellers table, this proved a notable slump of 49.9%. It also marked the crossover’s lowest delivery total since October 2022. This caused the Model Y’s market share to drop from 6.6% to 2.6%.

In 10th was the Audi Q4 e-tron, recording 4,595 registrations. This was the SUV’s lowest finishing position in the 2025 results, as its volumes fell by 22.3% year on year. In turn, its market share declined by 1.5pp to 2.5%. This meant that six VW Group models were featured in the BEV best-sellers table for April.

Tesla still tops BEVs

Despite its poor April performance, the Tesla Model Y continued to lead Europe’s BEV market in the cumulative table. Between January and April, it recorded 35,192 registrations giving it a 4.6% market share.

There was a change for position in second, as the VW ID.4 moved ahead of the Tesla Model 3. This was largely due to the Model 3’s 24th-place finish in April. The ID.4 took a 3.5% market share thanks to 26,798 deliveries, while the Model 3 recorded 26,028 registrations and a 3.4% share.

The Skoda Enyaq ranked fourth with 25,540 units, just 11 ahead of the VW ID.7, which saw a boost from strong April sales. Another 109 units behind was the combined total of the Renault 5 and Alpine A290. These models accounted for 3.3% of the BEV market.

In seventh was the ID.3, displacing the Kia EV3. The hatchback posted 24,301 registrations and a 3.2% share. Meanwhile, the EV3 recorded a 3.1% share with 24,007 deliveries.

Then came the Audi Q4-tron with 21,715 registrations, accounting for 2.8% of the overall market. The BMW iX1 completed the top 10, posting 19,676 deliveries and a 2.6% share.

Volvo XC60 recovers

The Volvo XC60 was the most popular PHEV in Europe in April, thanks to 5,093 registrations. However, this signalled a decline of 2% compared to 12 months prior. Its share fell from 6.9% to 5.2%, as competition in the sector intensified.

BYD’s Seal U secured second place with 4,783 units, accounting for 4.9% of total volume. Close behind, the VW Tiguan posted 4,753 deliveries, an impressive 623.4% increase on the same month last year. The SUV captured a 4.8% market share, up 3.9pp.

The BMW X1 followed in fourth, with 3,029 registrations. This was its best result so far in 2025, yet the performance was down 6.7% on April 2024. The SUV captured 3.1% of PHEV volumes, down from 4.3%.

After leading the market in March, the Ford Kuga placed fifth in April. The PHEV recorded 2,949 deliveries, its smallest monthly figure since August 2024. Despite a 7.4% growth in registrations, its market share fell by 0.6pp to 3% due to increased market saturation.

Toyota C-HR registrations surge

Securing sixth was the Toyota C-HR, surging 321.2% year on year with 2,864 units. It accounted for 2.9% of the market, up 2pp compared to 12 months prior.

Seventh went to the Mercedes-Benz GLC. Although it achieved its biggest monthly total so far in 2025, the SUV’s 2,634 deliveries were still down by 23.2%. This translated to a 2.7% share, down from 4.6%.

Just one unit behind was the Cupra Formentor. However, it had contrasting fortunes compared to one year ago, enjoying a 6.2% rise in registrations. Yet, its market share dropped by 0.6pp to 2.7%.

BMW’s 5-Series placed ninth after landing outside the best-sellers top 10 in March. The saloon reached 2,587 deliveries in the month, up 145.2% year on year. The PHEV accounted for 2.6% of the overall total, up from 1.4%.

The Audi A3 closed out the top 10, making its first appearance in the table this year. The model recorded a 2.7% fall in volumes compared to April 2024. However, its 2,538-unit total was the model’s highest monthly figure since then. It took a 2.6% market share, down by 0.9pp.

VW takes fight to Ford

The Volvo XC60 continued to lead Europe’s PHEV market in the year to date, with 19,905 registrations and a 5.4% share. Behind, the VW Tiguan took second from the Ford Kuga. The former recorded 17,646 deliveries and a 4.8% share between January and April. Meanwhile, the Kuga made up 4.3% of PHEV volumes with 15,918 units.

BYD’s Seal U finished fourth thanks to 14,974 registrations. This translated to a 4.1% market share. Then came the Toyota C-HR, with a 3.3% share and 12,193 deliveries. The Cupra Formentor secured sixth, accounting for 3.1% of the overall total, with 11,253 units.

Just 246 registrations behind was the BMW X1, benefitting from a strong April. This gave the SUV 11,007 units and a 3% share. The BMW 5-Series claimed eighth, representing 2.6% of the PHEV market and posting 9,633 deliveries.

The Hyundai Tucson claimed ninth with 8,941 registrations and a 2.4% share. Skoda’s Kodiaq was only 180 units behind the SUV, recording 8,761 deliveries and capturing 2.4% of total volumes.

EU registrations dip continues as new emission regulations proposed

The EU’s new-car market has not seen a good start to 2025, underlined by another registrations drop in February. Autovista24 special content editor Phil Curry assesses the latest figures.

Europe’s new-car market struggled in February, with petrol and diesel registrations the culprit once again. The market saw increased battery-electric vehicle (BEV) and hybrid registrations. But these were not enough to offset major collapses in deliveries of fossil-fuel powertrains.

The latest data from ACEA shows that the EU market fell 3.4% in the month, with 853,670 units delivered. This was a gap of 30,168 units compared to the same period last year.

Changes in regulations

At the start of March, the European Commission submitted its industry action plan. It set out a roadmap to relax the CO2 emissions regulation timetable on new cars.

Previously, manufacturers were required to reach an average emission level no higher than 93.6g/km across their fleets. Otherwise, they would face fines for each 1g/km over.

Carmakers will now have a period of three years to comply. The average emissions figures between 2025 and 2027 will be taken into account. This means any emissions over the limit can be balanced out in the remaining period.

Before this, some carmakers may have withheld petrol and diesel sales, lowering the number of models available. This would have been countered with a greater availability of hybrid and electric vehicles (EVs), resulting in lower fleet emissions.

Moving forward, carmakers will be wary of not being able to balance out high average fleet emissions in one year. However, they may look to offer a more rounded powertrain range to boost sales and profits.

BEVs buck the decline in registrations

Whether a result of the previous emission regulation or a surge in popularity, the BEV market is currently riding high. During February, the market was up 23.7%, with 131,275 registrations. This was a difference of 25,109 units compared to February 2024, highlighting the improvement of the technology.

In terms of market share, BEVs made up 15.4% of total registrations in the month. This was up 3.4 percentage points (pp) compared to the same month last year.

Across the big four markets, Germany saw the highest volume, with 35,949 registrations, up 30.8%. Spain saw the biggest increase, with 6,112 units equating to year-on-year growth of 60.6%.

Italy’s BEV market grew 38.2% with 6,922 units. Only France saw a decline, down 1.9%, with a volume of 25,335 units. This was still the second-highest total in Europe.

With both Italy and Spain recording low BEV volumes, the market is more balanced than most. Both Belgium and the Netherlands can be considered major markets for the all-electric powertrain. Last month, Belgium saw 13,040 BEV deliveries, up 38.9%. Meanwhile, the Netherlands was up 22.4%, with 10,174 units.

Registrations building back

BEVs struggled in the EU last year. A mix of incentive changes, subsidy cancellations and tariff implementations affected the market. However, the technology has started this year well, with two high double-digit increases in the first two months of 2025.

This means in the year-to-date, BEVs were up 28.4%, with 255,489 units delivered. Three of the four largest EU markets accounted for 46.4% of all BEV registrations, and recorded robust double-digit gains. These included Germany, up 41%, Belgium, up 38%, and the Netherlands, up 25%. This contrasted with France, which saw a slight decline of 1.3%.

BEVs have taken a 15.2% share of the EU new-car market so far in 2025, up from 11.5% at the same point last year. The increase in the year-to-date figures may be due to fluctuations in the BEV market at the start of 2024. This is backed up by the strong result in Germany.

At the end of 2023, the country abruptly stopped its incentive scheme for private buyers. This impacted registration totals at the beginning of last year, which the market is now making up for. With increased uptake in other markets and the potential effects of emission regulations, the EU BEV market is pushing forward.

Hybrids remain popular

Hybrids were the only other powertrain to record growth in February. Made up of full and mild-hybrids, this sector saw 304,062 units registered, an increase of 19% year on year.

The result meant that hybrids once again led the new-car market in the month, with a 35.6% share of deliveries. This was an improvement on the 28.9% hold 12 months ago. At this point the technology was closing in on the once market-leading petrol powertrain.

Across the first two months of the year, hybrids improved their volume by 18.7%. A total of 594,059 units have been registered. This is nearly 100,000 more than in the same period last year. Their share of 35.2% of the market was up by 6.4pp.

Meanwhile, plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) suffered a minor decline in February. Figures were down by 1.4%, with 63,570 deliveries to customers. However, due to fluctuations elsewhere in the market, the powertrain’s share grew by 0.1pp, to 7.4%.

PHEVs have had a tricky start to the year, seemingly being bypassed by drivers in favour of hybrids or BEVs. The technology was 5% down across the first two months of 2025, with 124,947 registrations. This gave it a 7.4% hold of the total market, a drop of 0.2pp.

Electrified market dominates

These individual results combine to show that the EU market is moving further towards an electrified future.

The EV market, made up of BEVs and PHEVs, grew 14.2% last month, hampered slightly by the plug-in hybrid decline. 22.8% of all models delivered in February were plug-ins, as the sector edges towards a quarter of the market. This was up from 19.3% recorded in the same month last year.

Between January and February, EVs were up 15.1%, again thanks to the strong performance of BEVs. Their combined market share of 22.6% was up from 19% at the same point in 2024.

Adding hybrids into the mix, electrified models dominated the EU new-car market. In February, the market share increased by 10.2pp, to 58.4%. The grouping saw registrations grow by 17.1% in February, equating to 72,823 more electrified model deliveries.

In the year to date, the result was similar. Electrified vehicles lead with a 57.8% market share. This was up by 10pp year on year, while registration totals improved by 17.3%. This equates to an increase of 143,667 units compared to the same point in 2024.

ICE slide continues

While electrified models fly high, internal-combustion engines (ICEs) have pulled the overall EU registration figures into decline.

Petrol registrations in February plummeted 22.4% year on year. A total of 244,073 units were delivered to customers in the month, equating to a market share of 28.6%. This was a drop of 7pp compared to the same period last year.

Meanwhile, diesel registrations fell 28.8%, to 80,569 units. This meant the powertrain took a 9.4% hold of total figures, down from 12.8% last year.

Over the first two months of 2025, petrol registrations fell by 20.5%, with 489,838 units. The fuel type’s market share of 29.1% was down from 35.5% in the same period last year. Diesel was down by 28%, with 163,452 registrations. It made up 9.7% of the market, down 3.4pp.

Combined, the ICE market fell 24.1% in February. Its year-on-year deficit of 102,988 deliveries could not be plugged by electrified models, leading to the EU market’s overall decline. The powertrain grouping captured 38% of overall volumes, a decline of 10.4pp year on year.

The same situation occurred in the year to date. ICE registrations fell 22.5%, with a gap of 189,720 units. This was too large to be bridged by electrified registrations. So, the EU market ended the period with a total loss of 51,458 deliveries.

Petrol and diesel models accounted for 38.8% of new-car volumes across the first two months of 2025. This was a significant distance from the 48.5% recorded in the same period last year.

Whether the changes to emissions rules will help ICE registrations remains to be seen. However, the market has been in decline for some time. This suggests that the EU’s shift towards electrification is caused by the changing attitudes of buyers and overall model range options.

This content is brought to you by Autovista24.

Will European EV registrations surge in 2025?

What is the outlook for European electric vehicle (EV) registrations in 2025 and beyond? How will complex challenges impact deliveries? Neil King, head of forecasting at EV Volumes, presents the latest European forecast with Autovista24 special content editor Phil Curry.

Europe’s light-vehicle market, comprised of passenger cars and light-commercial vehicles (LCVs), increased by 1.7% year on year in 2024. This came after a strong improvement in registrations of 13.9% in the previous year.

There are many potential challenges facing the European market this year. Additionally, new action plans have eased major hurdles facing the EU market. This makes forecasting the region’s performance difficult.

Currently, EV Volumes believes there is too much uncertainty to quantify the impact of possible tariffs and developments surrounding the war in Ukraine on European light-vehicle sales. It does assume there is a greater risk of rising inflation and energy costs. This may lead to higher interest rates across the region.

Accordingly, EV Volumes forecasts that Western and Central European light-vehicle registrations will grow by just 0.65% in 2025. This is lower than the December 2024 forecast, which predicted growth of 2.6%.

Complex challenges in European market

Just over 15 million units are forecast for delivery in 2025. This falls short of the more than 18 million units registered in Europe during 2019. This means the continent’s automotive market will face another year struggling to achieve pre-COVID-19 levels.

EV Volumes does not see the European market returning to these levels during its forecast horizon. This is currently set to 2040. The forecast for 2026 now sits at year-on-year growth of 2.1%. This hinges on a complex interplay of regulatory and economic factors.

For example, stricter CO2 emissions standards are expected to lead OEMs to pool emissions with other manufacturers. The regulation is also predicted to force carmakers to push battery-electric vehicle (BEV) sales. They will look to achieve this through lower prices, discounting and rolling out new models.

Meeting the lower EU emissions target will require a major increase in EV sales and may create a price war supported by lower lithium costs. OEMs may even resort to restricting internal-combustion engine (ICE) supply to avoid costly fines for exceeding their emissions targets.

The outcome will depend on how OEMs balance short-term gains with long-term compliance and market shifts.

However, on 3 March, the European Commission unveiled its Industrial Action Plan for the automotive sector. These proposed measures aim to support the industry’s competitiveness and transition to zero-emission mobility in the EU.

One notable proposal is the relaxation of the 2025 CO2 emissions targets for cars and vans. This extends the compliance period from one to three years, from 2025 to 2027. So, vehicle manufacturers now have greater flexibility to avoid costly fines.

European declines in 2024

European EV deliveries fell by 2.2% to 3.07 million units in 2024. This represented a 20.5% market share, compared to 21.3% in 2023.

The decline was mostly because of changes in EV subsidies. Schemes in France, Ireland and Germany were reduced during the year, especially for plug-in hybrids (PHEVs).

While Germany is considering a possible reintroduction of BEV incentives, given the current socio-economic situation, this may not be implemented. Even Norway, regarded as a leading market for EVs, ended its VAT exemption.

Furthermore, most legacy OEMs could stay safely below their CO2 limits without selling more EVs. There was even a clear year-end push on ICE vehicles in many markets. This meant these models would not count towards the lower average emissions targets from 2025.

EV sales to rise

Yet there are some positives for the EV market. Many more affordable BEVs, such as the Citroen e-C3, are being rolled out. Global EV-leader BYD also has expansion plans for the region. Other Chinese vehicle manufacturers are also weighing up European expansions.

Considering the changes to the EU CO2 emissions targets, EV Volumes forecasts that European EV sales will increase 15.1% year-on-year in 2025 to 3.53 million units.

This equates to 23.4% of all light-vehicle sales, higher than the previous year’s share. It is also more than the EV market’s hold in 2023. BEV volumes are forecast to grow 20.6% year-on-year, with the technology accounting for 72% of the 2025 EV sales mix. PHEV sales are only forecast to grow by 2.9%.

The EV market is expected to grow further in 2026. This is due to the rollout of new plug-ins, lower prices, and lower EU CO2 emission targets. The powertrains are forecast to take a 26.4% share of the European light-vehicle market next year. One in three new vehicle registrations in 2027 are expected to be an EV.

Moderate growth for BEVs

The proposed amendment to the EU CO2 emissions targets requires approval from all member states. However, EV Volumes anticipates its implementation. There have also been discussions about amending the 2035 ICE ban to potentially exclude PHEVs. However, such measures were not included in the current action plan.

EV Volumes forecasts a moderate share growth for BEVs in 2025 and 2026, with a more significant increase in 2027. This will come as manufacturers aim to achieve average CO2 emissions levels of 93.6g/km for cars between 2025 and 2027. Meanwhile, LCVs will need to reach 153.9g/km over the three-year period.

EV Volumes calculations suggest that to meet these targets, the BEV share of light vehicles in the EU needs to average at least 20% between 2025 and 2027. This equates to around 20.5% for passenger cars and 18% for LCVs.

Without additional stimulus, manufacturers are not expected to meet this average target for all light vehicles over the three-year period. This is largely due to the slower pace of LCV electrification.

However, it is anticipated that the targets will be reached as an average between 2025 to 2028. There might still be additional exemptions, lower targets or new incentives, either EU-wide or at a national level. Any implementation of new subsidies would lead to an increase in the BEV share outlook.

Trouble with tariffs

Volumes in 2025 could also be affected by the implementation of tariffs on BEVs imported into the EU from China.

On 31 October 2024, duties came into effect following discussions with Chinese authorities and a vote by EU member states. Carmakers were handed differing tariff levels depending on the discovered subsidisation of value chains by the Chinese government.

Tesla announced a price increase of about €1,500 for the Model 3. Nio and Xpeng stated they would not change prices in the EU. Meanwhile, BYD is expected to absorb the tariffs without increasing prices. SAIC previously stated it had sufficient stock to supply the market with MG models until November 2024.

Falling lithium prices are also supporting OEMs’ ability to resist increasing prices of BEVs built in China. The impact on all-electric sales in Europe was negligible in 2024. However, EV Volumes has considered price changes, demand elasticities and reflected assumptions in the forecast for 2025 and beyond.

Changes in the EV forecast

Compared to the previous EV Volumes Europe forecast, the 2025 EV share and volumes have decreased. This is because manufacturers can meet EU CO2 targets over three years instead of striving to achieve them in 2025. The 23.4% share forecast for this year has, therefore, fallen by 1.3 percentage points.

EVs are expected to represent 60.5% of the market in 2030 and 93.1% of total sales in 2035. This includes some tolerance for timing interpretations of the ZEV mandate. It also allows for exemptions for ICE vehicles that may be deemed unsuitable for full electrification.

EV Volumes then expects the plug-in share of the European light-vehicle market to reach 99.4% in 2040.

LCV BEV struggles

The uptake of plug-in LCVs still runs far behind that of the passenger car market. EV growth of 45.8% in Europe during 2023 was encouraging. However, the volume and share of electric LCVs suffered more than passenger cars in 2024.

High prices compared to diesel LCVs and limited range have hindered uptake. Yet, there are all-electric products on the market, such as the Ford Transit, Renault Trafic, and VW Transporter. In addition, upgraded versions of the small, medium, and large electric vans offered by Stellantis brands will bolster demand.

EV Volumes expects EVs will make up 8.1% of the new LCV market this year from 5.4% in 2024. It will then reach 10.9% in 2026 before rising to 47.8% in 2030.

In the long term, the 2035 ICE ban will further accelerate the transition to pure-electric LCVs. The forecast assumes that all Western and Central European markets will follow the directive, allowing for some exemptions and grace periods.

Therefore, BEV adoption in the LCV market will not reach 100% in 2035. However, it is forecast to take a 90.5% share of LCVs, compared to 91.4% for passenger cars. In 2040, EV Volumes projects that the BEV share for both cars and LCVs will be 99.1%.

The role of e-fuels and other CO2-neutral ICE fuels is still uncertain. These propulsion methods will likely be limited to niche concepts, which will also depend on national tax regimes. EV Volumes expects the deployment of hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles (FCEVs) to be limited for LCVs, with their share peaking at just 0.01%.

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What are the global EV market’s most successful brands?

The global electric vehicle (EV) market recorded double-digit growth across 2024, but which carmakers sold the most plug-in models? Autovista24 editor Tom Geggus reviews the powertrain and brand performances.

Combined, registrations of battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) reached over 17.29 million units in 2024. This meant the global EV market grew by 26.1% compared with 2023.

The latest data from EV Volumes shows that BEVs recorded a greater volume of deliveries than PHEVs in 2024. The former saw registrations reach 10.8 million units, while the latter reached 6.49 million units.

While both powertrains recorded growth across the year, PHEV registrations remained in the double-digit range. This ensured that the overall EV market remained positive throughout 2024. February was the market’s lowest point with growth dropping to 1.2%.

One major motivating factor for the dramatic fluctuation in growth between January and February was the Chinese market. While the country has seen demand for EVs accelerate, the Chinese New Year impacted deliveries in February. The market went on to recover across the rest of the year, with December recording growth of 26.1%.

At 62.5%, BEVs commanded the greatest share of the global EV market across 2024, while PHEVs made up 37.5%. Although this was a sizeable difference, plug-in hybrids made a gain on 2023 when they held a market share of 30.7%. The powertrain enjoyed increasing demand in China, as well as more consumers choosing the bridging technology globally.

BYD’s global EV success

BYD led the global EV market in 2024. Its combined deliveries of BEVs and PHEVs reached over 3.84 million units, up 33.6% year on year. This meant it counted for 22.2% of all EV sales across the world, up by 1.2 percentage points (pp) from 2023.

Tesla came second with half of the deliveries and market share of BYD. However, while the Chinese carmaker manufactures both BEVs and PHEVs, the US brand produces only all-electric cars.

Tesla sold 1.78 million units in 2024, down by 1.2% year on year, as global competition heated up. This saw the brand claim a market share of 10.3%, down from 13.2% in 2023.

In third place, Wuling was considerably behind the top two, with 688,415 deliveries. This equated to a 44.7% increase from the 475,801 registrations recorded in 2023. Wuling made up 4% of all EV sales, up 0.5%.

European shares slip

In fourth, BMW sold 535,586 plug-in vehicles, up 7.1% year on year. While it was the leading European brand, it made up just 3.1% of the global EV market, down 0.5pp.

Li Auto finished the year in fifth, as its EV sales jumped by 40% to 526,353 units. Its market share went from 2.7% in 2023 to 3% in 2024. In sixth, Geely also took a 2.7% market share, up 1.2pp. Its plug-in deliveries reached 458,473 units from 208,342 in the previous year.

Meanwhile, Volkswagen (VW) saw its EV sales and its market share fall as it took seventh. The brand’s deliveries dropped 5.8% year on year to 454,631. This meant the German carmaker’s share slipped 0.9pp to 2.6%. Taking eighth, Aito’s market share climbed by a considerable 1.5pp to 2.2%. Its sales volume increased by 290.1% to 386,817 units.

In ninth, Mercedes-Benz saw its global EV deliveries increase by a marginal 0.2% to 374,311 units. This meant it commanded 2.2% of the market, down from 2.7% in 2023. In 10th, Aion’s sales dropped by 22.6% to 373,906 sales. The Chinese brand’s market share fell 1.3pp to 2.2%.

December’s global brand ranking

Leading the global EV market in December, BYD’s deliveries increased by 31% to 421,290 units. This meant it made up 21.4% of all plug-in registrations, up from 20.6% in December 2023.

Tesla ended the month in second, some distance behind with a market share of 10.3%, down 2.3pp. However, its deliveries did increase by 3.2% to 201,971 units. In third, Wuling’s market share increased by 0.5pp to 5%. The brand recorded 98,040 EV sales, up 40.2% year on year.

In fourth, Geely recorded registrations growth of 176.1% in December, as it delivered 70,111 units. The brand represented 3.6% of the market, up 2pp. Fifth-place Li Auto saw sales climb 19.9% to 60,359 EVs. However, its market share fell marginally to 3.1% from 3.2% a year earlier.

In sixth, BMW’s EV registrations shrank by 10.1% in December to 53,444 units. This meant it accounted for 2.7% of all plug-in deliveries, down from 3.8% in December 2023. Chery climbed to seventh as its share reached 2.6%, up 1.5pp. This was thanks to a 204.5% year-on-year increase with 50,291 units.

VW slipped to eighth as its EV registrations dipped by 12.3% to 45,655 units. Accordingly, its market share slipped by 1pp to 2.3%. Then came Leapmotor in ninth, as its sales increased by 47.9% to 41,353 units. This meant its share climbed 0.3pp to 2.1%.

Finally, Xpeng finished the month in 10th place. Its sales soared by 85.7% to 37,330 units, pushing its share up to 1.9% from 1.3% in December 2023.

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The Automotive Update: Europe’s leading BEV market, emissions pooling and CES 2025

Early January 2025 has seen a flurry of major automotive news stories, from emissions pooling to CES. Autovista24 journalist Tom Hooker discusses the week’s biggest headlines.

Which European market sold the most battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) in 2024? The UK reconfirms its phase-out date for the sale of new petrol and diesel cars. Carmakers are pooling their emissions figures to navigate CO2 targets.

CES 2025 featured some important new automotive technology. Which model announcements made waves this week? Xpeng and Volkswagen announce a new joint charging network in China. Rolls Royce confirms the expansion of a UK production facility.

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The BEV battle

The 2024 registration results for Germany and the UK have been released. The UK recorded growth across the year while deliveries in Germany declined. This drop was largely due to a slump in the BEV sector, which fell by 27.4%. This meant the country lost its title as Europe’s best-selling BEV market. The UK took the mantle instead, thanks to a 56.8% BEV surge in December.

Meanwhile, the UK government confirmed it will bring the sales ban on new petrol and diesel models back to 2030. This deadline has changed on multiple occasions over the past few years. It was first announced in 2017, with a target date of 2040. In 2020 this was brought forward to 2030, before its push back to 2035, which was confirmed in 2023.

Carmakers are ‘pooling’ CO2 emissions with Tesla and Polestar to meet the EU’s 2025 targets. This means manufacturers with lower electric vehicle (EV) sales can buy emissions credits from other brands that are comfortably meeting targets. Stellantis, Ford, Toyota and Mazda are set to pool with BEV manufacturer Tesla. Meanwhile, Polestar, Volvo Cars, Mercedes-Benz and Smart will pool their emissions together.

CES 2025 and new models

At CES 2025, Sony Honda Mobility confirmed it is now accepting online reservations for its Afeela model. However, the company is currently only accepting orders from customers in California. Honda presented a world premiere of two prototype models from its 0 Series. BMW also revealed new in-cabin technology to improve the user experience. These systems will appear in new models, including the Neue Klasse, from the end of this year. 

Elsewhere, Skoda unveiled its new Enyaq on Wednesday. Renault revealed the interior of its Twingo E-Tech prototype at the Brussels Motor Show. BYD also introduced the BYD Atto 2 to its European lineup. Toyota confirmed its new Urban Cruiser will be rolled out in late summer 2025. Genesis took the covers off its redesigned GV60 crossover SUV, with more details expected in the first quarter of this year.

Xpeng and Volkswagen (VW) announced plans to jointly build one of the largest super-fast charging networks in China. With a target of over 20,000 charging piles operated by the carmakers across 420 cities, both Xpeng and VW customers will be able to access the services.

Rolls Royce revealed expansion plans for its production facility in the UK on Wednesday. More than £300 million (€358 million) will be invested into its Goodwood site. This is the largest financial commitment made to the location since it opened in 2003.

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How will a Trump presidency impact the global EV market in 2025 and beyond?

What did 2024 mean for the electric vehicle (EV) market? How will political changes, such as the return of Donald Trump, impact forecasts? Neil King, head of forecasting at EV Volumes, presents the latest global outlook with Autovista24 special content editor Phil Curry.

Once all registration data has been accounted for, the global light vehicle market, made up of passenger cars and light-commercial vehicles, is forecast to grow by 2.2% in 2024.

The latest information from EV Volumes shows a rise from the previous 0.9% forecast in September. This is thanks to improved figures in China, offsetting downgraded results in Europe and the non-Triad region.

The global EV share forecast has been upgraded to 20.4%, accounting for battery-electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs). This is up from 19.7% in September, with EV sales forecasted to grow by 25% across 2024.

The latest forecast of more than 17.7 million EV sales globally in 2024 is just over 800,000 units higher than EV Volumes predicted in September. However, the improved volume outlook for China cannot compensate for the downgrades to Europe, Northern America, and the non-Triad region in the longer term.

The global impact of Trump

The global EV volume outlook is lower in 2028 compared to September’s forecast. Plug-ins are expected to account for 33.9% of all sales worldwide, down from 34.1% in the previous report.

This is due to assumed changes to the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) with Donald Trump resuming the presidency. However, EVs are still forecast to account for 44.8% of light-vehicle sales in 2030, and 69.4% in 2035.

This year, the global electric light-vehicle market is expected to improve by 17%. This is a slowdown in growth as the market adapts to challenges in the year. The market faces tariffs on BEVs built in China and slower consumer demand. However, the share of EVs in the market will improve, up to 23.1%.

The number of EVs in operation is increasing rapidly, but their share of the total light-vehicle fleet is developing with a considerable delay. With 1.3 billion light vehicles on the road today. Assuming normal scrappage rates, EV Volumes forecasts it will take until 2042 for half the global fleet to be electric.

Uncertainty brews in North America

The automotive market recovery in North America is slightly stronger than anticipated by EV Volumes in September. This was aided by the US Federal Reserve cutting interest rates. Levels were lowered by 50 basis points in September, 25 basis points in November, and 50 basis in December.

The 100% import duty applied to EVs from China is not having a dramatic impact. This was anticipated as it only affects a few models. Measures came into effect in the US from 1 August and from 1 October in Canada.

Nevertheless, the rollout of the Volvo EX30 has been postponed until later this year. Additionally, the new Mini Cooper Electric will not land until 2026. Brands producing their EVs in China, such as Lynk&Co, Nio, Smart, and Zeekr, are unlikely to launch in Northern America until they relocate production.

EV Volumes has held its EV share forecast for 2024, at 10.3%, with growth of 13%. However, there is now far greater uncertainty about development of EV adoption in the US after the re-election of Donald Trump as president.

The Trump effect

Four key policy areas could be impacted by Donald Trump’s return. This includes a federal charging standard and funding for the National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure (NEVI).

Consumer tax credits from the IRA and the ‘leasing loophole’ could be affected. Tariffs and import duties on vehicles, even those sourced from Mexico and Canada, could be impacted. California may enforce stricter emissions standards, which have been adopted by several other states.

This means that forecasting EV adoption in North America is especially challenging. EV Volumes will need to make assumptions about policy changes and then quantify their impact.

At present, the assumption is that the IRA leasing loophole will be closed at some point in 2025. Higher import duties will apply from 2026, regardless of a vehicle’s origin. It is also assumed that the IRA will be diluted, if not entirely withdrawn, from 2028.

With these assumptions, EV Volumes expects the electric share of light-vehicle sales in North America to reach 12.8% in 2025. This is down from the 13.5% forecast in September. This share will then reach 39.2% in 2030, a fall from the previous 39.7% forecast. Meanwhile, 2035 will see a share of 70.7%, down from the previous expectation of 71.8%.

BEVs are still expected to account for 78.6% of EV sales in 2024. However, they are now projected to rise to 81.2% in 2025 (down from 82.4% forecast in September). Figures will climb to 93% in 2030 (down from 93.6%), and 96.6% in 2035 (down from 97.2%).

Europe’s challenges continue

The European light-vehicle market has faced considerable challenges in recent years. These seemed to be at an end in 2023 when deliveries improved by 13.9% year on year. However, cost-of-living increases and high interest rates have impacted the market in 2024. EV Volumes forecasts a 1.1% improvement across the full year.

This is slightly lower than the 2.4% improvement in September’s forecast. At 14.9 million units, this falls far short of the 18 million light vehicles registered in Europe in 2019. Moreover, EV Volumes does not see the European market returning to this level during the current forecast horizon, to 2035.

The EV market has seen increased challenges in 2024. Alongside the removal of incentives during 2023 in key markets, there were subsidy changes last year too. France lowered its subsidies last year. It then removed them completely for vehicles imported into Europe in January and for company-car buyers in mid-February. The country reduced the incentive amounts again at the end of November.

In January 2024, Switzerland completely removed the 4% import tax exemption for BEVs. Although Italy introduced a new incentive scheme in May 2024, the total funds dedicated to BEVs were fully depleted within a day.

Tactics at play

New CO2 regulations are due to coming into force in 2025. So, some carmakers may have pushed internal-combustion engine models more towards the end of last year. This would stop these vehicles from counting against their emissions totals for 2024. At the same time, holding back any low and zero-emission models into the first part of this year would reduce fleet CO2 levels.

With import tariffs on BEVs built in China, 2024 has proven difficult for the European EV market. EV Volumes forecasts a 4.8% decline in electric light-vehicle sales in Europe for 2024. This equates to over three million units, just 20.3% of all light-vehicle sales, down on the 21.3% share achieved in 2023, and even lower than the 2022 share of 20.7%.

This year looks brighter, however. Countries such as Spain and Poland are considering the revision of EV purchase subsidies. More affordable BEVs, such as the Citroen e-C3 are rolling out. Furthermore, global EV-leader BYD has expansion plans for the region alongside other Chinese OEMs.

EV Volumes expects a return to growth for the region in 2025. This is thanks to the rollout of new EVs, lower prices, and the implementation of more ambitious CO2 emission targets. EVs are predicted to gain a 24.7% share, as registrations improve by 25.2%. The share will rise to 61.6% in 2030, and 93.3% in 2035.

PHEVs boom in China

EV Volumes has again increased Chinese light-vehicle market forecast for 2024, to just under 25.8 million units. This equates to a 3.9% year-on-year growth. 2022 saw a boom in EV sales in China. This means the targeted 20% share of new-energy vehicles (NEVs) by 2025 was reached three years early.

The country has seen an uptick in PHEV sales over the last few years. The powertrain accounted for 18% of all EVs sold in 2021, claiming a 32% share in 2023. This was largely caused by high sales growth of BYD PHEVs and Li Auto extended-range electric vehicle (EREV) SUVs. Unsurprisingly, other Chinese OEMs are rolling out countless new PHEVs, which exacerbates their appeal.

EV Volumes forecasts that the powertrain capture a 42.5% share of the EV mix in 2024. However, with government plans to support the uptake of cleaner technology, the 2035 share outlook of EVs has been increased. BEVs are expected to gain ground against PHEVs from 2026 onwards.

In 2024, the EV market is forecast to improve by 37.6%, with the technology taking up 44.9% of all registrations in the country. Growth is expected to slow in 2025, with a 10.5% increase equating to around 12.8 million units. This would give the electric light-vehicle market a share of 48.8%.

In 2030, this is forecast to increase to 70.5%, reaching 86% in 2035. Growth rates could suggest even faster electrification of the market. EV Volumes remains cautious as regulatory and economic uncertainties remain high.

Non-Triad trails

Electric light-vehicle numbers in the non-Triad markets rose sharply for the third consecutive year in 2023, albeit from a low base.

Demand is increasingly supported by a wider availability of products, higher incentives, and lower import tariffs in some countries. EV sales in the non-Triad markets exceeded one million units in 2023, with growth of 82%.

The plug-in growth forecast for the region in 2024 has been lowered to 28.1%%, with the overall light-vehicle market expected to rise by just 0.4%. This is due to weakness in countries including Japan and South Korea.

However, governments are introducing measures to strengthen their currencies and stimulate consumer demand. This should support vehicle sales going forward.

Thailand, for example, has lowered the interest rate for automotive loans. The September and November cuts in the US interest rate should also have positive consequences for multiple economies.

EV Volumes slightly reduced the EV share for the year to 4.6%, which translates into just below 1.3 million deliveries. BEVs are, however, expected to perform slightly better in the EV market than anticipated in September.

For 2025, the EV market is expected to improve by 39.3%, equating to over 1.8 million units. The share is predicted to rise to 6.1% this year, before improving to 17% in 2030, and reaching 41.8% in 2035. This means the non-Triad region will trail global EV adoption by five to six years.

Many developing countries impose high tariffs on vehicle imports. Unless they exempt EVs, they will need to develop their own EV industry to catch up with adoption in mature markets.

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Does a 0-60 time still matter in the BEV market?

For decades, how quickly a car could go from 0 to 60mph (100kph) has provided an important indicator of desirability. But is this statistic still relevant in an increasingly electrified and varied automotive landscape? James Roberts, Autovista24 web editor, investigates.

Precise data and statistics are central to the automotive industry. When marketing a new vehicle, many carmakers highlight key metrics that help promote performance, economy, and durability. One long-standing measurement is focused on acceleration. More specifically, the 0-60mph metric.

The time it takes for a vehicle to reach 60mph from standstill, has long been recognised as a standard measure of linear acceleration. While only demonstrating one element of performance, it has proved enduring and evocative.

Whether a battery-electric vehicle (BEV) or internal-combustion engine (ICE) vehicle, manufacturers still include 0-60mph times when marketing new models. This is particularly true for higher-performance cars. Alongside power, top speed and range or fuel consumption, acceleration remains key to driving interest.

Subsequently, this statistic is a staple of vehicle-centred discussions and comparisons. However, is this metric truly indicative of a vehicle’s overall performance? In the era of fast-accelerating BEVs, combined with an increased consumer emphasis on range and energy consumption, is a low 0-60mph time still important?

Why is 0-60 important?

A quick 0-60mph time can serve as a status symbol. Behind the wheel, it represents the vehicle’s capabilities and the affinity for performance. However, it can also be seen as something that looks good on paper but is rarely fully exploited in the real world.

To accurately measure a vehicle’s 0-60mph time, specialised equipment and controlled conditions are essential. Both professional publications and carmakers typically conduct these tests at dedicated facilities. This includes bespoke automotive testing tracks or closed airport runways. 

Generally, multiple acceleration runs are performed in opposite directions. This is to account for potential environmental factors like wind or road surface variations. Some testers combine a timed 0-60mph figure with a quarter-mile timed run.

‘Like many automotive performance statistics, a car’s 0-60mph figure is one that is typically only achievable under perfect conditions and with an experienced driver,’ stated Autovista Group senior residual value analyst Robert Redman.

‘In day-to-day motoring, it can only really be attempted on odd occasions, such as when leaving the front of the queue at traffic lights. At best, that achieves very little, and at worst, can result in serious damage to the car’s drivetrain,’ he added. 

BEVs rewrite the 0-60 rules

Over a decade ago, when BEVs were a niche luxury product, acceleration was a key selling point. Early BEVs like the 2008 Tesla Roadster, could go from 0-60mph in under two seconds.

However, such vehicles were limited in range and practicality. To justify their premium price tag, manufacturers focused on showcasing their impressive acceleration. 

This shift has significantly altered performance benchmarks and cascaded down into everyday BEVs currently on the market. Mid-range family cars now possess the acceleration capabilities of high-performance ICE models. Some even match the performance of these cars in terms of 0-60mph times. 

‘Sure, the ability to launch a family sedan like a Lamborghini is amusing initially,’ Redman said. ‘However, the reality is that most roads are filled with slower traffic. This increases the risk of accidents.

‘Moreover, the silent acceleration of BEVs lacks the visceral thrill associated with high-performance internal combustion engines. A similar stunt in a petrol or diesel car would likely draw criticism, with other drivers labelling it as showboating or irresponsible,’ he added.

What makes BEVs so quick?

The BEV powertrain is more simple, with fewer moving parts compared to ICE vehicles. This streamlined design reduces energy losses, allowing for more efficient power delivery to the wheels.

Electric motors found in BEVs produce maximum torque from a standstill. This means they deliver full power immediately without a need to climb through a ratio of gears as is the case with ICE vehicles. This allows for smoother and quicker acceleration.

While acceleration metrics have historically been a significant marketing tool, particularly for BEVs, their relevance may diminish over time. As electric technology advances and battery capacities increase, the focus may shift from raw acceleration figures to other factors such as range, charging speed, and overall efficiency. 

Range beats acceleration

While impressive acceleration can still excite consumers and differentiate products, it is likely to become less of a defining factor. As BEVs become more commonplace and their performance capabilities considered standard, their relatively rapid acceleration will become the norm.

‘In the past, BEVs primarily differentiated themselves through their notable acceleration,’ commented Autovista Group’s chief economist Dr Christof Engelskirchen. ‘While this remains a significant advantage, the focus is shifting towards a more balanced performance profile. Linear acceleration, a characteristic unique to BEVs, continues to captivate, but factors like range and charging infrastructure are gaining equal importance.’

‘The enhanced performance that comes with BEVs is nice to have,’ stated Redman. ‘Undoubtedly, some will choose the faster variant when purchasing a vehicle. However, that acceleration potential often comes with a reduction in the all-important range, especially if it is used too often.’

Today, reaching a speed above 100mph is achievable for the majority of new cars. Alongside this, a sub-10 second 0-60mph time is nothing unusual. In that respect, this benchmark has lost some of its relevance. 

Changing attitudes

According to Redman, many motorists are less attracted by the allure of a quick 0-60 time. Instead, mid-range acceleration is more important in real-world conditions. Getting from 20mph to 40mph, or 30mph to 50mph, is essential for executing safe overtaking and accelerating out of corners.

‘For knowledgeable drivers, this is more important than the standing start time as it is utilised many times during a drive,’ confirms Redman. ‘That is one reason why such drivers will choose a large-capacity diesel over a petrol equivalent, as the former will often provide a much greater amount of mid-range torque. The 0-60mph time is also not an indication of a car’s overall driving experience. A dragster may have a blistering 0-60mph time, but try driving it through a winding mountain road.’

For BEVs, range is key. For prospective buyers, particularly those in sectors where tax benefits are not applicable, range remains critical. This is especially true for individuals who lack home charging options and rely on public or workplace infrastructure. Practicality, including sufficient boot space, is also a significant consideration for many. 

According to Engelskirchen, as BEV development continues, priorities from both OEMs and consumers will continue to shift. This could see the importance of the once headline-grabbing 0-60mph figure slipping further down buyers’ list of priorities.

‘As BEVs mature and enter the mass market, the focus is shifting from peak performance to practical range,’ confirmed Engelskirchen. ‘Optimising factors such as battery efficiency, energy management, and aerodynamic design will be key to extending range, without compromising vehicle weight or cost. 

‘While advancements in battery technology are promising, a comprehensive approach to vehicle engineering will be necessary to deliver affordable, long-range electric vehicles,’ he concluded.

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Are global EV sales forecast to improve by the end of 2024?

Will Europe’s sluggish electric vehicle (EV) market impact global deliveries in 2024? Neil King, head of forecasting at EV Volumes, presents the latest outlook with Autovista24 special content editor Phil Curry.

The global EV light-vehicle market is expected to perform well by the end of this year, according to the latest EV Volumes forecast. Despite a European slowdown, other markets will bolster deliveries of electric passenger cars and light-commercial vehicles. This will push the 2024 sales figure past 2023’s result.

EV registrations are forecast to improve by 19% worldwide, with 16.9 million sales and a 19.7% market share. This is 440,000 more units than predicted in July. However, the global EV volume outlook for 2028 onwards is up to 400,000 units lower than previously forecast. The global EV share is expected to reach 22.6% in 2025, 44.6% in 2030, and 69.5% in 2035.

The overall global light-vehicle market is expected to improve by 0.9% this year, up from the 0.5% forecast previously. This is due to the improved outlook for China compensating for the downgraded forecasts for Europe, Northern America, and the non-Triad region.

EV struggles in Europe

The entire European light-vehicle market saw a strong performance in 2023, with 13.9% growth in registrations. This came on the back of more turbulent times, caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting supply-chain crisis.

However, the market has struggled this year, with some bigger regions posting regular declines. Order intake is subdued because of high interest rates and cost-of-living increases, which have impacted demand.

EV Volumes now forecasts that the market will grow by only 2.4% this year. This figure is lower than the 2.6% forecast in July, highlighting how much the market has struggled in recent months.

This latest forecast equates to around 15.1 million units registered. This falls far short of the 18 million light vehicles delivered in Europe during 2019. EV Volumes does not see the European market returning to this level during the current forecast horizon, which runs to 2035.

Europe’s EV market has also struggled this so far year. With several countries amending or cancelling their subsidy programmes, a naturalisation of the sector has occurred.

Europe’s light-vehicle EV market can be expected to drop by the end of 2024, with deliveries down 2.2% compared to last year. This will only be a temporary downturn, with growth of 22.8% forecast for 2025, then a 20.1% rise in 2026 and an improvement of 21.1% in 2027.

The technology is forecast to dominate the market by 2029, representing 50.1% of all light-vehicle registrations. By 2030, there will be over 10 million EVs sold in Europe, with the technology taking 61% of the market.

PHEVs popular in China

China’s EV boom continued in 2022 with the powertrain’s share hitting 26.7% up from 13.9% in 2021. The government set a target for new energy vehicles (NEVs) sales, including battery-electric vehicles (BEVs), plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) and fuel-cell electric vehicles. These powertrains had to make up 20% of deliveries by 2025, a target which was reached three years ahead of time.

EV Volumes has slightly increased the total light-vehicle market forecast again for 2024. It now expects 24.5 million units to be sold. However, this still equates to a 1.3% year-on-year decline.

The market’s swing towards PHEVs, from 18.3% of all EVs sold in 2021 to 24.6% in 2022, continued last year. PHEVs accounted for 32.1% of EV registrations in 2023. This was largely caused by high sales growth of extended-range EVs (EREVs), popularised by BYD and Li Auto.

As a result, other Chinese OEMs have begun rolling out new PHEVs, which will exacerbate their appeal. Therefore, EV Volumes forecasts that the technology will capture a 41.6% share of the EV mix in 2024.

The country’s government is planning to provide additional financial support to encourage the adoption of cleaner technology, including EVs. Therefore, EV Volumes has increased the EV share outlook across the forecast horizon. It expects BEVs to gain ground in the BEV-PHEV mix from 2025 onwards.

In the medium and long term, the local forecast is not restricted by target shares or capacity limitations. EVs are forecast to account for 47.8% of light-vehicle sales in 2025, 69.5% in 2030, and 85% in 2035.

Support in North America?

EV growth in North America has proved consistent over the last two years. The entire market improved by 47.6% in 2022, and 47.8% in 2023. The EV share of all light-vehicle sales also improved in 2023 to 9.4%, up from 7.2% in 2022.

The country’s overall automotive market recovery is expected to continue. However, this will be at a slightly slower pace than anticipated earlier this year. This has affected the EV market share and volume forecasts. In 2024, a 12.8% improvement in light-vehicle EV registrations is expected, followed by a 37.8% increase in 2025.

The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) supports further, rapid EV growth in the US. However, compliance with upcoming battery and material-sourcing requirements is still unclear for many EV entries.

The incentives for producing vehicles and batteries in the region remain strong while also threatening imported brands and models. However, the Union of Auto Workers strikes highlighted the risks that EVs may pose to domestic OEMs. In turn, this would hurt US jobs in the automotive sector.

The IRA is assumed to remain effective until 2032. However, this could change when Donald Trump takes to the Oval Office at the start of 2025. Based on existing data, EV Volumes currently forecasts that the EV share of light-vehicle sales will reach 10.3% in 2024. This will then increase to 13.5% in 2025, then 39.7% in 2030, and 71.8% in 2035.

BEVs are expected to account for 78.6% of US EV sales this year, down from 79.7% in 2023. However, this figure will rise to 82.4% in 2025, then 93.6% in 2030, and 97.2% in 2035.

Non-Triad holds firm

EV numbers in the non-Triad markets rose sharply for the third consecutive year in 2023, albeit from a low base. EV demand is increasingly supported by a wider availability of products, higher incentives, and lower import tariffs in some countries.

Combined EV sales in the non-Triad markets reached roughly 556,000 units in 2022 and exceeded one million units for the first time in 2023. This equated to respective growth of 90.9% and 81.7%.

Volumes grew by more than 100% in markets including Australia, Thailand, Brazil, Turkey, Malaysia, and Mexico in 2023 and more than 50% in India and Japan.

Despite this, the combined EV share in the non-Triad region was only 3.6% in 2023. This was up from 2.1% in 2022, as large vehicle markets like India, Japan, Brazil, and Mexico still sell very few EVs. This also pulled down the global average EV share, as non-Triad countries accounted for a third of global light-vehicle sales in 2023.

The growth forecast for the region’s overall light vehicles in 2024 has been lowered to only 0.7% due to weakness in countries including Japan and South Korea. However, governments are introducing measures to strengthen their currencies and stimulate consumer demand, which should support vehicle sales going forward.

Therefore, EV Volumes has held the 2024 EV share forecast for the non-Triad countries at 4.8%, which translates into 1.37 million EV sales. Although, PHEVs are expected to perform better in the plug-in mix than previously anticipated.

The EV share is predicted to rise to 6.4% in 2025, reaching 17.7% in 2030, and 42.5% in 2035. This means the region will trail global EV adoption by about six years.

Future EV volume surge

The global volume of EVs is set to rise from just under 14.2 million units in 2023 to 71.2 million units in 2035. The latter figure is five times the amount of 2023’s volume. 

Meanwhile, annual traction battery demand is forecast to increase from 0.7 terawatt hours (TWh) in 2023 to 5.1TWh in 2035. This is over seven times the 2023 total. This is driven by the quest for longer electric ranges in all vehicle segments. The electrification of the popular full-size SUVs and pickups in North America is also increasing demand.

However, the trend for larger batteries is slowing as efficiency increases. Lower costs facilitate the electrification of smaller vehicles, where profit margins are tighter.

The number of EVs in operation is also increasing rapidly. However, their share of the total light-vehicle fleet is developing with considerable delay. There are a total of 1.33 billion light vehicles on roads around the world today.

Yet, EV Volumes' current forecast for plug-in growth expects that it will take until 2042 for half of the global fleet to be electric. This was calculated assuming normal scrappage rates.

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