Article Type: News

Launch Report: Citroën e-C3 makes all-electric mobility more affordable

The new Citroën e-C3 is a timely and affordable battery-electric vehicle (BEV) from the French carmaker. Autovista Group experts examine the model with Autovista24 special content editor Phil Curry.

Citroën is going through a period of reinvention, as it aims to make electric motoring affordable. Its new electric version of its popular C3 model, the e-C3, is its first step on this journey.

Looking to introduce more people to the benefits of BEVs, Citroën has designed the e-C3 to stand out, but not overburden buyers with expensive additions.

Autovista24’s latest Launch Report benchmarks the Citroën e-C3 against its key rivals in Austria, France, Italy and the UK. This includes a detailed analysis of its strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats. New price points are also outlined alongside forecast residual values.

SUV inspiration

The latest generation of the C3 adds a bolder design to the small hatchback, giving it an SUV profile. A boxy front end houses Citroën’s new badge design and headlight profile. This sets up a strong stance, helping the car look bigger than it is.

The shape may not seem overtly aerodynamic, but Citroën has included plenty of lines to channel air around the car. This includes the rear profile, where the bodywork flairs. This design continues into the lighting units, giving the impression of fins. This design was made even more extreme on the C5 Aircross Concept launched at the 2024 Paris Motor Show.

A straight back end and up to 17-inch wheels mean the model is far removed from the older, curvier C3. This makes it more visually appealing to a wider audience.

Technology on a budget

Inside, the e-C3 sees Citroën continue its legacy of driver and passenger comfort. The carmaker has included its advanced comfort seats, which use additional foam to provide extra cushioning and support. This, together with comfortable suspension, makes it a good fit for those looking for a relaxing drive.

The new vehicle profile also improves the interior space. The e-C3 stands 1.57-metres tall, higher than the old model, increasing headroom for front passengers. With the boxier SUV profile and no sweeping rooflines, rear headroom is also greatly improved. Back-seat passengers also benefit from good legroom, something that is sometimes difficult to find in smaller vehicles.

To help keep costs down, the e-C3 interior is sparse in terms of gadgets and premium technologies. However, this works in the vehicle’s favour. The 10.25-inch touchscreen is adequate, while the slim driver display sits high on the dashboard, well within the vision line. There are plenty of physical buttons for the vehicle controls too.

However, in the entry-level version, Citroën does not include the infotainment screen. Instead, a smartphone cradle is installed. This saves on costs but reduces the functionality and size of the infotainment area.

This specification also removes the electric windows from the rear doors, with manual options instead. These specifications are mirrored in some other budget models. Yet they are a noticeable reminder of the low-price specification for those unable to afford the next step up.

Practically practical

The e-C3 comes with a 310-litre boot, a decent size and plenty for a small family. However, the car’s SUV nature does not extend to the loading space. No flat floor can make it more difficult to use.

In terms of power, Citroën launched the e-C3 with a 44kWh battery, capable of producing 113hp. The smaller battery pack means the car is lighter, but has a lower driving range of 320km. To mitigate this, the model has a 100kW DC charging capacity. This means its battery can go from 20% to 80% in 26 minutes.

However, the model will be more suited to town and city driving rather than long-distance trips. Citroën has limited the e-C3 to a top speed of 132kph, with the 83kW motor producing a 0-100km time of 11 seconds. This is not a performance car and is not intended to be.

Comfort mode

Citroën’s vehicles have always been known for their comfortable ride, and the e-C3 does not disappoint. Where some BEVs have stiffer suspension settings to offset the vehicle weight, the e-C3 features the brand’s advanced comfort suspension. Hydraulic components act to soften the ride, allowing the model to soak up bumps.

This does provide a certain amount of roll in the corners, however, especially with the vehicle now sitting higher. It is also susceptible to gusts of wind, with its flatter and boxier side profile.

Yet the e-C3 is a good car to drive. The smaller steering wheel is not an issue, and the car turns into corners with ease. In a town or city environment, the power limitations are not noticeable, whereas the handling potential of the model is. On faster roads, the e-C3 performs well but is not exciting.

Overall, the Citroën e-C3 is a good entry-level BEV. With prices comparable to petrol and diesel models, it can help introduce buyers to the technology.

View the Autovista Group dashboard, which benchmarks the Citroën e-C3 in Austria, France, Italy and the UK. The interactive dashboard presents new prices, forecast residual values, and SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) analysis.

This content is brought to you by Autovista24.

On song BYD dominates record-breaking Chinese EV market in September

Chinese electric vehicle (EV) deliveries soared in September, as BYD continued its domestic market domination. José Pontes, data director at EV Volumes, looks into the figures with Autovista24 special content editor Phil Curry.

Registrations of EVs, including battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) set a new record in China in September. More than 1.1 million units were delivered in the month, a 51% increase year on year. This is even more spectacular when considering the overall market improvement in the month was just 5%.

Growth came from both powertrain types. BEVs were up 29% in September, to around 644,000 units, while PHEVs jumped 97% to around 479,000 units. This was the fourth month in a row that PHEVs broke their volume record.

September’s strong results saw EVs take a 53% share of the overall Chinese new-car market. BEVs alone accounted for 31% of all deliveries. In terms of EV share, BEVs held 57% of registrations in the month, while PHEVs had 32%. The remaining 11%  share was captured by extended-range models (EREVs).

In the first nine months of 2024, around 7.3 million EVs have been delivered to customers, a significant rise over the 5.4 million units that were registered in the same period during 2023.

Looking at the market share between January and September, EVs held 47%, with 27% of this belonging to BEVs. Compared with 12 months prior, the 2023 plug-in share was 37%, with BEVs making up 25% overall. This means that while BEVs have only improved market share by two percentage points (pp), PHEVs are growing faster. The technology’s share increased by around 8pp year on year.

With this growth, the year should end with EVs holding around 50% of the market. This means the push for full electrification by around 2030 is still heading in the right direction.

EVs lead overall

China’s overall best-seller chart saw EVs take the top six places, with the first internal-combustion engine (ICE) model being the Nissan Sylphy. It took seventh with 33,000 units.

With eight plug-in models in the overall top 10, the market was led by electric powertrains. Furthermore, six of these models belonged to BYD, highlighting the carmaker’s domination in its domestic market.

In the EV-only chart, BYD placed 11 models in the top 20, as its run of success continued. This included the top spot for the Song, in its BEV and PHEV versions. The midsize SUV scored 57,022 registrations in September, with 7,024 units coming from the BEV version alone.

The Song is uncontested in the Chinese market, with a gap of over 8,800 units to second place. Whether it will continue to run unchallenged at the head of the table all depends on its competition, including that from internal sources.

However, with competitive pricing, it is still achieving over 50,000 sales a month on average, a necessary threshold.

With 48,202 units delivered in September, the Tesla Model Y took second position in China. This was the model’s best month of the year, and it remains relevant in the country’s market. The brand was the only foreign carmaker to appear in the Chinese top 20, but there may be a challenge ahead. Domestic manufacturers are launching cars that could prove serious competition to both the Tesla Model Y and the Model 3, namely the Nio Onvo L60 and Xpeng Mona M03.

BYD takes charge

Four BYD models filled the next four spots, with the Seagull leading this charge in third. The model posted a year-best performance in September, with 47,915 deliveries. Part of its production is now being diverted to export markets, yet demand is seemingly growing in China.

The Seagull could become the best-selling BYD model globally. The A-segment model is also expected to place second in the 2025 EV table, both globally and in its domestic market

Meanwhile, the Qin L achieved a record result in September, with 39,490 deliveries in fourth. Its production ramp-up is continuing, and it is not hurting registrations of the Qin Plus, on which the BEV is based on.

BYD has succeeded with the Qin and its related models. Combining deliveries of the L, together with the Qin Plus, the Seal 06 and the Destroyer 05, both of which are alternative trim lines, the brand achieved 135,625 registrations in China. This is more than the global sales of the Tesla Model Y.

The Qin Plus ended September in fifth position, with 38,874 units. Of this, 12,213 deliveries were all-electric models. The Seal 06 took sixth place, ending the brands consecutive streak with 37,155 units. BYD also took eighth place with the Yuan Plus (25,576 units) and 10th position with the Song L (25,308 units).

BYD also placed three models in the bottom half of the top 20. The Destroyer 05 ended in 13th (20,106 units), while the Yuan Up took17th (16,018 units) and the Dolphin finished in 18th place (15,290 units).

With over half the table comprised of BYD models, it is clear the brand is successful in its domestic market. It also seems to have settled on the strategy of producing more good-quality models that will sell in lower volumes, to beat the might of Tesla and its two major vehicles.

Notable performances

One of the biggest surprises in September’s top 10 was the presence of the Wuling Mini EV, which took seventh place. With 28,918 registrations, this was the model’s best performance since February 2023. Highlighting Wuling’s strong month in China, the larger Bingo also had a year-best result, with 24,063 units securing 11th place.

Another model on the rise is the Li Auto L6, which was 9th, with a record 25,393 deliveries. The smaller of Li Auto’s lineup is also the brand’s newest model, so the midsize SUV could start to secure a frequent presence in the top 10.

The Tesla Model 3 took 12th position with 23,998 registrations, its best performance in two years. It appears the refreshed model is starting to enjoy some success in China. However, this is still not at the level of its stablemate, the Model Y.

A surprising result was the 16th spot of the Geely Panda Mini, which saw a record 17,551 deliveries in the month. With the good results of the Wuling Mini EV, Changan Lumin (12,284 units), and FAW’s Bestune Xiaoma (9,615 units), small city cars had a great month in September.

Another record performance was produced by the Luxeed S7, which made its debut in the top 20, taking the final place in the table. It secured 14,647 deliveries to hold the spot, as Chery and Huawei’s partnership begins to blossom.

Other noticeable achievements

Outside the top 20, there were several impressive performances, as new and established models fought for position.

Amongst the startup brands, Aion came closest to the top 20, with its Y crossover finishing September ended in 21st position (14,612 units). Geely’s Galaxy E5 crossover also just missed a place in the top 20. Its 14,250 units led it to 22nd in only its second month on the market.

Meanwhile, in its fifth month on the market, Chery’s Fengyun T9 PHEV crossover delivered 11,156 units. Xpeng impressed with its Mona M03, recording 10,023 registrations in its first month on the market.

Finally, the only other foreign brand than Tesla to make a mark in China’s EV market during September was Volkswagen. Its ID.3 had a year-best monthly total of 9,650 units.

Tesla pulls back

September’s results did little to change the year-to-date table at the end of the month. The BYD Song continued to look secure in the top spot, with 467,750 units, over 105,000 deliveries ahead of the BYD Qin Plus in second (362,721 units).

The competition for second and third places is closer, however. The Tesla Model Y is only 25,073 units behind the Qin Plus, with its September tally ending at 337,648 deliveries.

Fourth was held by the BYD Seagull (297,395 units), which lost some ground to the Tesla Model Y in September. The BYD Yuan Plus is over 100,000 deliveries behind in fifth (197,099 units), with the Destroyer 05 in sixth (157,629 units).

The result for the Wuling Mini EV in September saw it jump two places in the annual table. It sat in seventh, with 154,432 registrations. Its progression came at the expense of the Aito M7 (151,378 units) and the BYD Han (145,571 units), which dropped to eighth and ninth respectively.

The Wuling Bingo climbed to 10th position (128,703 units) while the biggest mover was the BYD Qin L, which jumped six positions. The model took 11th place, thanks to 126,265 registrations between January and September.

Meanwhile, Li Auto saw its L6 model gain two spots. It ended September in 14th place across the first nine months of the year, with 114,356 deliveries.

BYD also had cause to celebrate, with the Seal 06 joining the yearly registrations table in 18th position (99,386 units), giving the Chinese carmaker nine models in the top 20, cementing its popularity in its domestic market.

Go to Autovista24 for related articles.

The economy behind large batteries in electric vehicles – is bigger better?

EV batteries

As carmakers chase greater electric vehicle (EV) ranges, batteries keep getting bigger. But do these larger energy-storage units pay off? Autovista Group experts explore the economies of large batteries with Autovista24 editor Tom Geggus.

As EVs transition into the mass market, the economies of bigger batteries need to be considered. When does the size of the energy-storage unit affect performance and pricing? What is the role of plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) in the transition to battery-electric vehicles (BEVs)? Are carmakers on the right track to push EVs into the mass market?

Autovista Group experts set out to answer these questions in a new webinar. The panel included Dr Christof Engelskirchen, chief economist at Autovista Group, Dr Anne Lange, director of research and innovation at Autovista Group, Christoph Ruhland, director of business development at Autovista Group, and Christian Schneider, director of content at EV Volumes.

Are bigger batteries better?

Between 2021 and 2024, Germany saw the average WLTP range of a BEV increase by 28% to 375km. While this meant greater distances without the need to plug in, drivers also benefitted from faster charging. The average DC charging speed increased by 25% over the same period to 131kW.

‘Range anxiety is not a big issue anymore with the current generation of EVs,’ said Schneider. ‘We see a small shift at the moment from range anxiety to charging anxiety. The charging infrastructure across Europe has grown quite a lot in the past, but it is still maybe struggling a little bit in some regions.’

So, while bigger batteries allow drivers to go further between charging stops, infrastructure still needs to be available. On top of this, faster EV charging means less time spent at a public plug-in point on a journey.

The economies of size

Engelskirchen calculated the savings associated with long-range BEVs, by comparing variants of the Tesla Model Y and Volvo EX30. This meant measuring the annual costs associated with all-electric cars on a 20,000km, three-year lease.

In Germany, a new long-range Tesla Model Y currently costs 9% more than the standard-range version. This means an absolute difference of €3,361, but what does that pay for? While the standard model is advertised with a WLTP range of 455km, the long-range version should reach 600km.

The Volvo EX30 is a more affordable BEV, but the price differential is greater between the two versions. The long-range model costs 13% more (€4,370) than the standard EX30. This puts the WLTP range up to 475km from 337km. But is there a financial advantage to paying for more kWh?

‘With a longer-range vehicle, you will be charging less publicly. Public charging is a bit more expensive. This means you are going to save €59 per year,’ Engelskirchen explained. However, this is dependent on the usage scenario. If a person makes more long journeys, they are likely to make more stops at public charging points.

Remarketing bigger batteries

So, how do larger batteries influence pricing in the used-car market? Using portal data of models at 10,000km in Germany, Lange revealed that BEVs with greater energy capacities retained more value.

BEVs with large batteries also sell more quickly. These models spend fewer days in stock compared to those with smaller energy-storage capabilities. For example, all-electric cars with a capacity of up to 50kWh spent 109 days in stock. Meanwhile, those above the 80kWh mark needed 95 days on average to sell.

However, Lange highlighted an important caveat. ‘It is quite hard to isolate the effect of battery size,’ she said. ‘Larger batteries will always be built into larger vehicle segments and will usually have better equipment, better trims, and higher horsepower.’

Plug-in hybrid highs

PHEVs have also seen battery capacities increase, alongside growing global demand. Global sales of the powertrain have accelerated, with EV Volumes forecasting continued growth in the years ahead. This trend is being driven by China, where demand is so great, it is dictating global figures.

However, this demand is not mirrored across the world. France represents a trend occurring in many European markets, with PHEV shares set to decline as more BEVs are adopted. One major exception to this steady descent is Germany, where the plug-in hybrid share dropped rapidly in 2023 after the German government withdrew purchase incentives.

Used PHEVs continue to sit behind internal-combustion engine models, but ahead of BEVs when it comes to value retention. The powertrain can also be expected to retrain a greater level of residual value if they are fitted with larger batteries. However, it is still important to recognise that bigger, more expensive models are likely to feature more energy storage.

Are carmakers on the right track?

So, will batteries continue to increase in size despite the drive towards the mass market? Ruhland pointed out that new and upcoming EVs are continuing the trend towards larger batteries. For example, the VinFast VF9 is expected to arrive in Europe with a battery capacity of 123kWh.

Meanwhile, the Denza D9 DM-i PHEV will feature a 40kWh energy-storage unit. Before long, there will be even more plug-in hybrids with batteries of this size, capable of electric ranges up to 200km.

To illustrate just how far EVs have come, Ruhland highlighted the journey of the Nissan Leaf. The BEV was first mass-produced in 2010 with a 24kWh battery, almost half of what some upcoming PHEVs will feature.

In the last 14 years, the EV landscape has changed almost beyond recognition. Where there was once a handful of plug-in models, a wide range of different BEVs and PHEVs now exist. Behind them stands an array of emerging carmakers.

The defining choice ahead of them is whether to put bigger batteries in their EVs or to optimise performance. By focusing on efficiency, OEMs could reach respectable ranges while also delivering cars with enjoyable driving dynamics. This will also keep costs from climbing further, meaning more EVs make it to the mass market.

If you enjoyed The economy behind large batteries in electric vehicles - is bigger better?, make sure to register for Autovista Group’s next free webinar. Blessing or curse: The impact of EU tariffs on BEVs made in China, will take place on 7 November 2024 at 9.30am BST / 10.30am CET. Find out more and register for your place today.more and register for your place today.

This content is brought to you by Autovista24.

Is Europe’s EV decline impacting market forecasts?

EV Volumes

With Europe’s light vehicle market slowing, how have electric vehicle (EV) forecasts been affected? Neil King, head of forecasting at EV Volumes, presents the latest outlook with Autovista24 special content editor Phil Curry.

Europe’s light-vehicle market, made up of passenger cars and light-commercial vehicles (LCVs), has experienced a rollercoaster ride this year. Major markets across the continent enjoyed relatively consistent growth following the end of the supply-chain crisis in August 2022.

However, this year has seen instability, with strong overall increases offset by large declines. With high interest rates and the cost-of-living crisis, the automotive market is in a state of flux.

EV Volumes has reduced its forecast for Europe’s light-vehicle market in 2024. It now expects growth of 2.4% across the continent by the end of the year, down from the 2.6% forecast in June 2024.

At almost 15.1 million units, this falls far short of the 18 million light vehicles registered in Europe in 2019. Moreover, EV Volumes does not see the European market returning to this level during the current forecast horizon, up to 2035.

Difficult forecasts for EVs

Europe’s EV market, made up of battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), has seen a significant slowdown. The electric light-vehicle market saw deliveries in Europe increase by 17.4% in 2023, with 3.15 million new units taking to roads across the continent.

However, some major markets changed their incentive schemes in the past 12 months. Germany ended all subsidies by the end of 2023. Meanwhile, France reduced the number of eligible models based on new carbon footprint figures. Even EV-friendly Norway has ended its VAT exemption for EVs.

Although Italy introduced an incentive scheme in May 2024, the funds dedicated to BEVs were totally depleted within a day. This caused a spike in passenger-car BEV registrations during June, with figures having returned to normal since July.

On a positive note, countries such as Spain and Poland are considering the revision of EV purchase subsidies. More affordable BEVs such as the Citroen e-C3 are rolling out too. Additionally, global EV-leader BYD has expansion plans for the region, as do other Chinese OEMs.

Provisional tariffs impact

This expansion is despite the EU imposing provisional import duties on BEVs manufactured in China.

Imposed on 5 July, the tariffs remain provisional and are subject to change. Discussions with the Chinese authorities are ongoing, hoping to ‘explore possible ways to resolve the issues identified in a WTO-compatible manner.’

Furthermore, OEMs have only had to provide bank guarantees at this stage. No additional duties are to be collected until a final agreement becomes definitive in November.

So far, only Tesla has announced a modest price increase of about €1,500 for the China-sourced Tesla Model 3. Meanwhile, both Nio and Xpeng stated they will not change prices in the EU. BYD is expected to absorb the tariffs without increasing prices.

MG-parent SAIC stated that it has sufficient stock to supply the market until the tariffs become definitive in November. Finally, falling lithium prices are also allowing OEMs to put off price increases of China-built BEVs.

EV Volumes assumes that prices will largely be unchanged until the tariffs become definitive in November, and these could yet be applied at a lower rate too. The impact on the 2024 BEV sales forecast for Europe is therefore negligible. However, it has considered price changes and demand elasticities, adjusting the forecast accordingly for 2025 and beyond.

EV declines ahead

Considering these market trends and tariffs, EV Volumes forecasts that European EV sales will fall 2.5% year on year in 2024. This equates to 3.07 million unit deliveries.

This equates to only 20.4% of all light-vehicle sales. This is lower than the 21.4% share achieved in 2023, and even the 20.7% gained in 2022.

There is a high risk that the EV share does not even exceed 20% this year. Volumes of BEVs are forecast to decline 3.5% year on year, with the technology accounting for 67.8% of all EV deliveries.

However, EV Volumes only forecasts a modest 0.2% decline in PHEV sales. This is because they offer a stepping stone to full electrification. Additionally, incentive changes mean BEVs have lost their price advantage in major markets like Germany.

Volumes to drop in forecasts

In terms of electric volume and share expectations, EV Volumes has lowered its forecasts for this year. This is partly because of a reduced outlook for total European light-vehicle sales. However, it also reflects weaker EV adoption in multiple countries and the lacklustre recovery of Germany’s BEV market.

Electric vehicles are also forecast to see slightly lower market shares in the years ahead. This follows the reduction or complete withdrawal of incentives as governments contend with high debt levels. Alongside this, more countries are pushing back on the EU zero-emission mandate for 2035.

Compared to the previous forecast, the European market share of BEVs and PHEVs is now expected to reach 24.2% in 2025 (was 25.9%), 61.1% in 2030 (was 62.3%) and 93.4% in 2035 (was 94.1%).

The forecast for 2035 includes some tolerance for timing interpretations of the zero-emission vehicle mandate. It also allows for exemptions for internal-combustion engine vehicles that may be deemed unsuitable for full electrification.

However, EV Volumes foresees a return to registrations growth next year, with EVs predicted to gain a 24.2% share. This is thanks to the rollout of new EVs and the implementation of more ambitious CO2 emission targets for new cars and vans in the EU, set at 93.6g/km for 2025-2029.

Tough times for electric LCVs

LCVs still lag far behind in electrifying, but a 49% growth in electric deliveries last year is encouraging, especially compared to the 16% growth for passenger cars.

High prices for EVs in this market, compared to diesel models, are still inhibiting. However, key new products such as the Ford Transit, Renault Trafic, and VW Transporter BEVs will help the market. So too will upgraded versions of the small, medium, and large electric vans offered by Stellantis brands Fiat, Peugeot, Citroen, and Opel/Vauxhall.

EV Volumes now forecasts that the EV share of the LCV market will decrease from 7.5% in 2023 to 6.6% in 2024. This will be followed by an increase to 9.8% in 2025, and 51.6% in 2030. Long term, the 2035 ZEV mandate will further accelerate the transition to pure-electric LCVs.

The forecast assumes that all Western and Central European markets will follow the directive, allowing for some exemptions and grace periods. Therefore, the ZEV share is unlikely to reach 100% in 2035, but EV Volumes forecasts a 92.6% share, compared to 93.5% for passenger cars.

Go to Autovista24 for related articles.

Balancing the price and performance of EV batteries

EV batteries

Vehicle manufacturers have been increasing the size of electric vehicle (EV) batteries, but how does this balance with pricing? Autovista24 editor Tom Geggus will examine the price-performance conundrum with Autovista Group experts in an upcoming webinar.

As one of the most expensive components in an EV, batteries impact pricing, performance and purchasing behaviour. This creates a price-performance conundrum for vehicle manufacturers. As battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) need to transition into the mass market, this issue is of critical importance.

Autovista Group experts will explore this delicate balance in a new webinar: The economy behind large batteries in electric vehicles – is bigger better? Register now for this free event on 26 September 2024 at 9.30am BST / 10.30am CET.

An expert panel 

Following the success of the previous Autovista Group webinar: How to recharge Europe’s battery-electric economy, this panel of automotive experts will feature: 

  • Dr Christof Engelskirchen, Autovista Group chief economist 
  • Tom Geggus, Autovista24 editor 
  • Dr Anne Lange, Autovista Group director of research and innovation 
  • Christoph Ruhland, Autovista Group business development director
  • Christian Schneider, EV Volumes director of content.

These Autovista Group experts will take a deep dive into the economy of bigger batteries, exploring three business-critical topics: 

  1. BEV batteries only seem to be getting larger. But price remains a big barrier on the road to the mass market. Do greater battery capacities and ranges pay off? 
  2. Plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) now boast increasingly large batteries. This is giving the powertrain a second wind in many major markets around the world. But will this success continue, and what does it mean for the transition to BEVs?
  3. Are vehicle manufacturers on the right track to deliver BEVs and PHEVs to the mass market? How do new launches compare to what is already present on the market? 

Who is the webinar for?

Anybody with a vested interest in EV technology will benefit from the market intelligence presented in this webinar, particularly: 

  • Product managers for vehicle manufacturers involved in portfolio planning, sales or marketing 
  • Remarketing managers seeking to address the price-performance conundrum 
  • Companies that hold EV asset risks
  • Fleet managers who wish to understand the impact of larger batteries on their vehicles from a user-convenience perspective 
  • Individuals or companies providing professional services to the EV industry.

Three takeaways from the batteries webinar

Though the discussion will touch on several major talking points around BEV batteries, attendees can expect to gain greater insight on: 

  • What vehicle manufacturers need to bear in mind when thinking about the mass market and the importance of EV technology 
  • Whether bigger batteries really are justified 
  • How new and recently launched BEV and PHEV models differ from what is currently sold in the market, highlighting comparative advantages for future releases 

Unravel the price-performance conundrum of EV batteries by attending the free Autovista Group webinar: The economy behind large batteries in electric vehicles – is bigger better? It takes place on 26 September 2024 at 9.30am BST / 10.30am CET. Find out more and register for your place today.

This content is brought to you by Autovista24.

Which EV manufacturers performed the best in 2024 so far?

EV Volumes

Which electric vehicle (EV) manufacturers stood out in the first half of 2024? EV Volumes founder, Roland Irle, reviews the most successful OEMs in the electric light-vehicle market with Autovista24 editor Tom Geggus.

Covering both passenger cars and light-commercial vehicles (LCVs), the global light-vehicle market saw mixed performances from EV manufacturers in the first half of 2024. One of the most noticeable trends was that OEM success followed regional growth patterns.

Many Chinese vehicle makers recorded impressive growth between January and June. Compared to the restrained results of most Western OEMs, the likes of Geely, Changan, Li Auto, Seres (Aito) and Chery did particularly well.

BYD’s year-on-year volume growth slowed to 26%, compared to the 62% surge it recorded last year. Despite this, the manufacturer remained the global EV-market leader.

Its product portfolio featured 37 nameplates for sale in the first half of 2024. This included battery-electric vehicles (BEVs), plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) and extended-range electric vehicles (EREVs). However, BYD is not yet present across all vehicle segments and it does not offer mini-EVs. It is also late to the EREV party.

Source: EV Volumes. Note: Light vehicles include passenger cars and LCVs. EVs include BEVs and PHEVs.
Source: EV Volumes. Note: Light vehicles include passenger cars and LCVs. EVs include BEVs and PHEVs.

BYD is also China’s largest OEM by production and sales volumes, despite only offering BEV and PHEV models. It sold roughly 161,000 vehicles outside China, and only some 17,000 in Western and Central Europe. South America, ASEAN, the Middle East and Russia were BYD’s largest export regions, with combined sales of roughly 114,000 units.

Tesla manages to hold on

Tesla was still the leading OEM in terms of global BEV sales between January and June 2024, but only by a small margin. Its deliveries declined by 7% year on year, which is the first time this has happened in this time period. Tesla’s volumes in China, Western Europe, North America, as well as Australia and New Zealand all declined compared to the first half of 2023.

The BEV builder is facing fierce pricing competition in China, while its refreshed Model 3 suffers rollout delays. The base model of the electric sedan was also not eligible for grants under the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) as its batteries were built in China. Going forward, the batteries for this variant will be US-sourced.

Monthly volume levels of Tesla models are often erratic, indicating changes in logistics and re-routing of supply, in order to retain grants and avoid tariffs.

Likewise, Volkswagen (VW) Group felt its grip on the global EV market slacken between January and June. It was only able to record 6% year-on-year sales growth, while the global EV market was up 22%.

Audi and Cupra were responsible for the OEM’s growth, while its other brands recorded declines. However, the opposite was true in China, where the VW brand continues to participate in the ongoing price war but Audi and Porsche do not. The Cupra brand is not sold in China.

Geely’s EV gains

Geely was a big winner in the first half of this year, tripling its global EV sector share. Its Chinese brands saw sales increase by 68% year on year.

Its European affiliate Volvo has also grown faster than the stagnating European EV market, where the Swedish brand sells most of its EVs. The new Volvo EX30 BEV was an instant hit with some 45,000 units sold in the first half. Approximately 39,000 of them were sold in Europe alone.

Geely, including Volvo, Polestar and Smart (formerly owned by Mercedes-Benz) exported roughly 118,000 units from China in the first half of 2024. Some 98,000 of these units were sold in Europe.

Of these European sales, roughly 93,000 were China-made models from Volvo, Polestar, Smart and Lotus. Import tariffs on China’s EV exports to Europe will limit this potential for growth. This is unless they are exempted from tariff increases or production is relocated to the region.

Jumping 32% in the first half of 2024, GM’s sales grew more quickly than at the same point last year. Several of its new models on the new Ultium battery platform are gaining traction in the US.

In China, the Buick Velite 6 BEV (not built on the Ultium platform) recorded roughly 33,000 sales. This is a new record for Buick in the region, beating all other previous model performances. However, the overall result for GM was dragged down by the phase-out of the Chevy Bolt, including the EUV derivative.

Most of the manufacturer’s recent growth can be attributed to its Chinese affiliate, Wuling. Co-owned by SAIC, the brand has been expanding and upgrading its portfolio. Dwindling sales of the Honguang Mini-EV were offset by the larger Wuling Bingo and the Starlight PHEV. This large sedan comes with a starting price as low as ¥89,000 ($12,400).

Stagnating market affect

Stellantis saw its EV deliveries decline by 9% thanks to its high exposure to Europe’s stagnating EV market. Subsidy cuts have affected sales of lower-priced EVs, an important sector for Stellantis. The OEM’s deliveries in Europe fell by 20%, while sales of Jeep, Dodge and Chrysler models in the US and Canada rose by 35%.

BMW Group sold 13% more EVs in the first half of this year. Mini recorded heavy year-on-year losses of 46%, while the BMW brand saw solid gains of 20%, with particular success in Europe. The German marque sold the second-largest number of EVs in Europe in the first half.

In the last two years, Changan has successfully launched three new brands, Avatr, Deepal and Qiyuan, also known as Nevo. The OEM has a total of 12 models positioned from the entry-premium level upwards, including EREV powertrains.

This effort has paid off. Changan’s sales increased by 87% in the first half, exceeding the 60% growth recorded at the same point last year. The company has plans to enter the Europe market.

Flat sales for Hyundai Motor Company

Hyundai Motor Company saw its sales stay flat in the first half. However, Kia was able to make slight gains over Hyundai. Launched in the summer of 2023, the Kia EV9 recorded some 19,000 sales in the first six months of 2024.

Otherwise, model volume changes were small. The only exceptions were the Kia Bongo and Hyundai Porter, which saw the end of generous electric LCV grants in South Korea. This resulted in a loss of some 17,500 sales. Dropping deliveries in Europe and South Korea were balanced by good growth in the US. In China, the OEM sold only around 3,000 units of the Kia EV5.

Li Auto, known for its large range-extender-equipped SUVs, saw continued sales growth in the first half. Following the launch of the L6 and increasing sales in Russia, the manufacturer managed to record 14,400 unit sales.

Ageing model lineup

GAC Aion’s brands lost momentum due to an ageing model lineup. Mercedes-Benz’s growth was hampered by volume losses in China and the phase-out of proprietary Smart models.

Compared to a weak first half of 2023, Seres saw sales grow by 515% between January and June 2024. Aito’s two new large SUVs featuring EREV technology, the M7 and M9, generated most of this growth. Aito seems set to follow in the footsteps of Li Auto.

Toyota, the world’s largest vehicle OEM, sold roughly 161,000 EV units in the first half. However, this only made up approximately 3% of its total sales. However, the vehicle manufacturer did record healthy year-on-year growth.

While SAIC recorded growth, this fell below expectations. It exported 58% of its volume, roughly 89,000 units. Approximately 56,000 of these models were sold in Europe, 3,000 units behind the first half of 2023.

Chery saw its sales increase with new, more premium entries. However, the OEM’s large export ambitions have not materialised, at least not for its EVs.

Incentives impact

The Renault-Nissan Mitsubishi Alliance experienced difficulties in the first half. The OEM group recorded weak EV sales in Japan. This followed a phase-out of the all-electric Renault Zoe before the Renault 5 and Renault 4 models could be handed the baton.

Purchase incentives are now no longer available for the Dacia Spring in France as it is built in China. This resulted in a drop of roughly 12,000 units, or 80% of its sales in the country.

Dongfeng recorded some 127,400 EV sales across its nine brands, resulting in healthy growth in the first half. The state-owned OEM is a leading manufacturer of internal-combustion engine (ICE) cars and trucks, although, its EV branch appears dysfunctional.

Only 4% of Ford’s total global sales in the first half came from EVs. Meanwhile, Nio, Leapmotor and XPeng all recorded healthy growth as well. However, sales volumes were still far from the 400,000-a-year viability threshold.

Leading EV deliveries

Models from Tesla and BYD led the global EV market in the first half of 2024. The Tesla Model Y was the world’s best-selling vehicle across all categories, including ICE vehicles. However, its figures were down between January and June, particularly in Europe.

One reason for this was increased competition in the BEV market. This includes the Volvo EX30, the BMW iX1 and iX2, as well as the Hyundai Kona. Even though these models are smaller than the Model Y, they offer an attractive alternative for buyers not concerned about size. If Tesla offered a model in the C-SUV space, this could help the OEM maintain market share.

With the Model Y now five years into its life cycle, a refreshed version, codename Juniper, is around the corner. It will likely produce the same improvements as the Model 3’s refresh. Many will wait to buy a new Model Y or go for a Model 3 in the meantime.

Production of the Model Y in Berlin suffered three unplanned shutdowns in the first half of 2024. This was due to acts of sabotage at the Berlin factory as well as shipping issues in the Red Sea.

The network of high-power fast chargers is improving. Additionally, Tesla grants access to their Superchargers for many other brands now. One of Tesla’s unique strengths is wearing thinner now.doption in mature markets.

Source: EV Volumes. Note: Light vehicles include passenger cars and LCVs. EVs include BEVs and PHEVs.
Source: EV Volumes. Note: Light vehicles include passenger cars and LCVs. EVs include BEVs and PHEVs.

Refreshed results for BYD Song

The BYD Song PHEV was not only the second-best-selling vehicle in China but was also the second-best-selling EV worldwide. The midsized SUV features BYD’s DM-i PHEV technology and starts from ¥136,000. Thanks to its recent refresh, sales increased again in the first half of 2024.

Deliveries of the Tesla Model 3 fell by 12% in the first half. Supply of the enhanced BEV was constrained in the US in the first quarter. Additionally, the base variant did not qualify for IRA grants due to its China-sourced battery.

Sales of the all-electric sedan grew by 41% in Europe but dropped by 22% in China and 36 % in the US. Model 3s sold in Europe are made in China. This indicates that Tesla prioritised European deliveries ahead of the implementation of new import tariffs. To manoeuvre around these new duties, Tesla will need to re-locate volume production for Europe to Berlin.

The BYD Seagull BEV, known as the Dolphin Mini in export markets, is the OEM’s smallest and most affordable model. Starting at ¥70,000, the Seagull undercuts the BYD Dolphin by ¥30,000 and cannibalises sales from its larger sibling.

In fifth, the BYD Yuan Plus BEV, known as the Atto 3 in export markets, saw sales decline by 20%. The Yuan Plus continues to lead the compact SUV segment in China. The model could take this title for the third year running, but it does now face fresh competition. The entire segment is also stagnating as buyers upgrade to larger SUVs which offer more innovations and EREV variants.

BYD’s warship lineup

The BYD Qin Plus DM-I was one of the best-selling models in China, leading the midsize-sedan segment in the first half. It was joined by its sibling from BYD’s warship line-up, the Destroyer 05 PHEV. Both models share the same architecture, powertrain and batteries.

The Qin Plus starts at ¥110,000 in China, while the Destroyer is available from ¥120,000. The model’s main export market is Russia, having delivered 2,500 units in the country in the first half.

Designed in cooperation with Huawei, the Aito Wenjie M7 is a large SUV from the Seres Group. Aito’s model lineup is similar to Li Auto’s, with a focus on large SUVs powered by EREV technology.

The BYD Dolphin finished eighth in the first half of 2024, losing sales to its Seagull sibling. Approximately 30% of Dolphin production is exported, mostly to South America and ASEAN countries. Sales in Europe reached 4,100 units between January and June this year.

The Hongguang Mini EV continues declining from its peak of over 420,000 sales in 2021 and 2022. New competition from the likes of the Changan Lumin and the Geely Panda took its toll. Buyers are also upgrading from mini cars to small cars, such as the BYD Seagull and the Wuling Bingo.

But which models and manufacturers will take home the EV-sales crown at the end of 2024? Keep up to date with the latest data-driven insights from EV Volumes on Autovista24. In the meantime, find out whether the global EV market really did slow down in the first half of 2024.

Go to Autovista24 for related articles.

Is the global EV market slowing down?

EV Volumes

New electric vehicle (EV) sales across the world continued to grow across the first half of 2024. But did the market show signs of slowing? EV Volumes founder, Roland Irle, explores the progress of plug-ins with Autovista24 editor Tom Geggus.

The global new light-vehicle market, including passenger cars and light-commercial vehicles, grew by 3.7% in the first half of 2024. Within this, combined battery-electric vehicle (BEV) and plug-in hybrid (PHEV) sales increased by 22% year on year to 1.35 million units.

As confirmed by EV Volumes data, deliveries of new EVs did grow relatively consistently between January and June 2024. Because of the Chinese New Year, February was the only month not to record double-digit growth in the first half.

Source: EV Volumes. Note: Light vehicles include passenger cars and LCVs. EVs include BEVs and PHEVs.

This consistency and competitively high level of growth appears promising at first. However, it does represent a slowdown from the same point last year. In the first half of 2023, the global EV market saw deliveries climb by 35% year on year.

Uneven EV growth

Growth has also become more uneven across the world. Despite accumulating economic woes, China continues to drive the global EV market in terms of volume. The country made up 60% of global electric vehicle sales in the first half of the year. Combined, BEVs and PHEVs represented 46% of the Chinese new-car market in June.

New plug-in volumes also outpaced the wider light vehicle market in China. EVs surged 31% year-on-year in the first half of 2024, while overall sales increased by 2%.

Over-capacity is a common challenge in the country, which means prices are coming down. Growth is particularly strong for both premium segments and extended-range electric vehicles (EREV). This powertrain uses a small internal-combustion engine generator to charge the battery instead of driving the wheels. Like BEVs and PHEVs, EREVs can be charged via the mains.

global EV market
Source: EV Volumes. Note: Light vehicles include passenger cars and LCVs. EVs include BEVs and PHEVs.

Sales stagnation in Europe

Europe is continuing to see EV deliveries stagnate following the exceptional growth of 2020 and 2021. While the overall new light-vehicle market continues to recover, growing by 5.2% in the first half, EV sales only increased by 1%. This follows many European countries reducing or removing purchase subsidies, first for PHEVs and then for BEVs.

In the US, the effects of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) are wearing off, following a steep growth in EV sales in recent years. On top of this, there are also uncertainties and challenges surrounding the eligibility of different vehicles for grants. The first half of 2024 was characterised by delays of not only vehicles but also batteries, with OEMs having to re-route supply chains to comply with IRA requirements.

EV deliveries in the region jumped by 12% in the first six months of the year, ahead of a 3.2% improvement for overall light-vehicle deliveries.

Elsewhere around the world, some EV markets recorded triple-digit growth, albeit from low bases. The most significant markets in terms of volumes and growth were Brazil, India, Thailand, Turkey, Mexico, Indonesia, Taiwan and Malaysia. However, two of the largest markets in this group, Japan and South Korea, appear to be going into reverse.

Are EV sales really slowing?

So, is the global EV market crashing? Not quite. While growth is slowing, this follows the rapid plug-in increases in both volume and share in 2021 and 2022. But global EV sales are still increasing, up by 22% in the first half of 2024, outperforming the total market growth of 3.7% by a wide margin.

In Europe, EV sales are stagnating, however, following the exceptional growth of 2020 and 2021. Looking back, there is the 2020 95gCO2/km New European Driving Cycle (NEDC) mandate and green recovery support measures to consider.

Introduced during the pandemic, this created an unprecedented EV boom during 2020 and 2021. Volume increases by 136% and 68% year on year respectively. This means CO2 emission targets were easily reached.

Europe’s EV demand outstripped supply, as prices were pushed up and discounts disappeared, creating generous margins for some models. However, the pandemic and its associated costs stressed public budgets. This pushed funds for green projects towards EV charging infrastructure, which remains insufficient.

Grant effect

From 2022 onwards, EV grants in Europe were gradually reduced, first for PHEVs, and then for BEVs. More expensive EVs also saw greater restrictions around subsidies.

By 2024, at least six countries phased out direct purchase incentives. This includes high-volume markets such as Germany, Norway, Sweden, the UK, Italy and Switzerland. However, annual road tax exemptions have remained intact in many locations.

As order backlogs cleared, supply caught up with slower demand. This has hailed a turning point, as a buyers’ market returned. This put margins under considerable pressure, with many EV models starting to lose money.

Having comfortably met the European CO2 mandates between 2020 and 2024, there is currently little incentive for carmakers to push for more EV deliveries. However, this will change in 2025 when fleet emissions will need to be 15% lower than in 2021. Therefore, efforts are better saved for this upcoming challenge.

What comes next?

EV Volumes expects new EV sales to reach a total of 16.5 million units this year worldwide. This would equate to an increase of 16% compared to 2023. Broken down by region, China is forecast to account for 10 million units, Europe 3.3 million units, North America 2 million units, with the rest of the world making up 1.4 million units.

Source: EV Volumes. Note: Light vehicles include passenger cars and LCVs. EVs include BEVs and PHEVs. 2024 figures are forecast.

Nearly one in five light vehicle deliveries will be an EV this year. However, PHEVs are gaining more ground globally than BEVs. This is mainly thanks to the growing popularity of EREVs in China, which EV Volumes categorise with PHEVs. While EREVs are less technically complicated than PHEVs, their fuel-saving potential is greater.

The downside of this powertrain is that a larger battery is required than in a standard PHEV. For the driver, there is also a disconnect between the sounds of the engine and the motion of the vehicle.

The first modern EREVs were the Chevy Volt and the BMW i3 Rex, which were both discontinued. Today, EREVs hail from China, with Li Auto kick-starting the recent renaissance.

EREVs cover the typical PHEV domains of midsize and large cars, as well as SUVs. In China, the powertrain now accounts for 18% of all EV sales in these segments, and a third of all PHEVs. BEVs represent 45% of sales in these segments while PHEVs make up 55%.

Go to Autovista24 for related articles.

Launch Report: Smart #3 benefits from the best of both worlds

The Smart #3 is the second model launched by the carmaker in its new era. Can it start a trend of budget-friendly, yet premium battery-electric vehicles (BEVs)? Autovista Group (part of J.D. Power) experts analyse the model with Autovista24 special content editor Phil Curry.

Now owned by Mercedes-Benz and Geely, Smart is evolving away from its microcar roots and towards models with broader appeal. The new generation of vehicles are designed by the German carmaker, with engineering and development led by the Chinese brand.

Mercedes-Benz-assisted design offers a premium look and feel while Geely offers more advanced BEV technology. Both companies have knowledge of the European market, either as a domestic brand or through subsidiaries like Volvo. This gives Smart a good opportunity to deliver in the region.

Autovista24’s latest Launch Report benchmarks the Smart #3 against its key rivals in Austria, France and the UK. This includes detailed analysis of its strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats. New price points are also outlined alongside forecast residual values.

Smart exterior

As the second model released under the joint ownership structure, Smart’s new design philosophy is clearly taking shape. The #3 is very similar in appearance to the #1, with LED headlights stretching into a light bar across the front of the vehicle.

The lower grill houses sensors for the advanced driver-assistance system, while the bonnet bulges above the wheel arches, channelling air. This aerodynamic design continues along the side, with channels to smooth airflow. Meanwhile, hidden door handles both reduce drag and add to a flush-looking exterior.

Smart is marketing the #3 as a coupé-SUV model. While it does feature a slightly sloping roofline, it is perhaps not as dramatic as regular coupés. However, the privacy-glass rear-quarter windows does continue the line set by the door windows into the rear of the car. This makes the model’s profile appear almost domed and futuristic.

Comfort and practicality

The cabin of the Smart #3 is pleasantly spacious. This is aided by the panoramic sunroof which floods the interior with natural light. Seating is comfortable, with the one-piece backrest offering good support, although the rear bench is quite firm.

Despite the coupé-esque roofline, the rear-passenger headroom is plentiful, even for tall adults. There is also plenty of legroom in the rear, even with the front seats positioned quite far back. The #3 can easily accommodate four adults as a result.

There is also plenty of storage available. The floating centre console features a large bottom shelf, with the armrest housing two cupholders, a dedicated phone slot, a charging area with two USB-C ports, and a large cubby. However, this does tend to open accidentally with the button easily caught by elbows.

The boot’s 370-litre capacity will easily hold three large suitcases, while this space expands to 1,160-litres with the rear seats folded almost flat. There is no flat loading area, with a small lip between the hatch and the boot floor.

There is a dual floor, allowing for charging cables or smaller items to be hidden away. Cables can also be stored in the frunk under the bonnet, which provides an additional 15-litres of space.

Infotainment issues

The Smart #3 features a 12.8-inch touchscreen infotainment system. Meanwhile, a smaller 9.2-inch screen containing detailed driver information is located behind the steering wheel. There is also a head-up display available in certain versions of the car.

As part of the General Safety Regulation 2 legislation passed by the European Commission, the Smart #3 features safety-related systems. This includes rear-view and blind-spot cameras, intelligent speed assistance and driver fatigue alerts. These last two systems are quite sensitive in the #3, providing audible notifications at the slightest infraction.

However, a screen behind the steering wheel sets the BEV apart from its platform sibling, the Volvo EX30. With immediately accessible information, the fatigue warning system is not repeatedly activated by the driver checking the centre screen.

As with many new models, most of the #3’s controls are located within menus and apps on the central touchscreen. This includes climate control, energy usage and driving modes, audio selection and volume.

There are shortcut touch-based buttons below the screen for select systems. However, basic audio controls only exist on the steering wheel, with no physical volume dial for the passenger. As many controls are buried in menus, it is difficult for the driver to switch functions off, adjust regenerative braking, or change radio stations when the vehicle is in motion.

The driving experience

On the road, the Smart #3 performs well for a vehicle of its size and weight. The suspension is medium-to-firm, soaking up bumps and keeping the 4.4-metre-long body steady. It does tend to wallow in sharper corners if taken at speed but corrects itself well.

The steering is precise and smooth, although there is a bit of vagueness at times, especially when cornering at higher speeds. It can feel like there is a lack of front-end grip when steering. This may be a consequence of the rear-wheel drive, with all-wheel drive only available in the performance Brabus version.

A 49kWh lithium-ion phosphate (LFP) battery is available on the entry-level Pro version, providing 325km of range (WLTP). All other versions get a 66kWh lithium nickel cobalt manganese (NCM) battery, providing up to 455km range (WLTP). Charging from 10% to 80% takes around 30 minutes with 150kW on the larger battery unit.

View the Autovista Group dashboard, which benchmarks the Smart #3 in Austria, France and the UK. The interactive dashboard presents new prices, forecast residual values, and SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) analysis.

This content is brought to you by Autovista24.

How have global EV forecasts reacted to strong headwinds?

EV Volumes

Global electric vehicle (EV) sales are experiencing turbulence, but is this enough to affect market trajectories? Neil King, head of forecasting at EV Volumes (part of J.D. Power), presents the latest outlook with Autovista24 special content editor Phil Curry.

Covering both passenger cars and light-commercial vehicles, the latest light-vehicle forecast from EV Volumes expects a 0.5% rise in total sales this year when compared with 2023.

This follows a weaker outlook in the non-Triad region, as well as downgraded expectations for Europe and North America. However, China did help compensate for this with an improved outlook.

Focusing on powertrain performance, the EV market has faced headwinds this year. Public opinion has suffered with talks of registration slowdowns, the cancelling of incentives and the implementation of provisional import tariffs.

Combined battery-electric vehicle (BEV) and plug-in hybrid (PHEV) volumes grew by 35% globally in 2023, reaching 14.2 million units. This equated to a 16.7% market share, up from 13.6% in 2022.

EV demand to increase

EV Volumes has held its plug-in share forecast for 2024 at 19.2%, with year-on-year growth of 16%. This means EVs are predicted to outperform the overall light-vehicle market. Factoring in the EU’s provisional import tariffs on Chinese-built BEVs, the forecast 16.49 million global EV sales in 2024 is only 9,000 units lower than predicted in June.

However, the global EV outlook for 2025 onwards is up to 100,000 units lower than previously predicted. The global EV share is forecast to reach 22.1% in 2025, then 44.9% in 2030, increasing to 69.7% in 2035. Global volumes are set to increase from 14.2 million in 2023 to 71.6 million units in 2035.

Annual battery demand is expected to increase from 0.7TWh in 2023 to 5.2TWh in 2035. This will be driven by the desire for longer electric ranges across all vehicle segments. The electrification of popular full-size SUVs and pickups in North America will also increase demand.

However, the trend for larger batteries is slowing as efficiency increases and costs fall. This will enable the electrification of smaller vehicles, which have tighter profit margins.

EV Volumes also forecasts a considerable delay in the electrification of the total light-vehicle fleet in operation. There are 1.33 billion light vehicles on the world’s roads at present. The current forecast for EV growth means it will take until 2042 for half of the market to be electric. This is assuming normal vehicle scrappage rates and replacement.

Europe’s pace slows

Europe’s new light-vehicle market expanded by 13.2% year-on-year in 2023. Supply improved after the COVID-19 pandemic and ensuing component shortages.

However, current order intake has now fallen because of high interest rates and the cost-of-living crisis. EV Volumes now forecast that the market will grow by 2.6% in 2024. This is lower than its March 2024 forecast, when expected growth sat at 3.1%.

The end of the year will see 15.1 million new light vehicles delivered, falling far short of the 18 million units registered in Europe in 2019. EV Volumes does not see the European market returning to this level during the current forecast scenario, up to and including 2035.

The European EV market entered 2024 facing some considerable challenges. France amended its incentive scheme to refuse subsidies to certain models and Germany cut incentives entirely last year. Norway ended its VAT exemption for the powertrains, and Switzerland removed the 4% import tax exemption for BEVs.

However, not all countries have taken this approach to subsidies. Italy recently introduced a new incentive scheme. Spain allocated €200 million of funding to extend its MOVES III scheme. Additionally, Poland is considering the revision of EV purchase subsidies.

More affordable BEVs such as the Citroen e-C3 are rolling out too. Global EV-leader BYD has expansion plans for the region as well, alongside other Chinese OEMs.

Tariff impact?

In July, provisional import tariffs on BEVs made in China came into force. This means additional costs for carmakers shipping vehicles into the region. Duty levels are based on the level of government subsidisation and cooperation with the EU investigation. These tariffs are in addition to existing import duties of 10%.

The tariffs remain provisional and are subject to further change as discussions continue. Furthermore, OEMs have only had to provide bank guarantees at this stage. No additional duties are to be collected until they become definitive in November.

Only Tesla confirmed a price increase following the announcement, with the made-in-China Model 3 costing around €1,500 more in some European countries. Meanwhile, Nio and Xpeng have stated they will not change prices in the EU. BYD is expected to absorb the tariffs without increasing prices. Finally, MG-parent SAIC stated that it has sufficient stock to supply the market until the tariffs become definitive in November.

Falling lithium prices are also allowing OEMs to hold prices steady.  EV Volumes assumes that prices will largely be unchanged until a final decision is made in November. There is also a possibility that final tariffs will drop at that point too.

Minimal disruption

So, the impact on the 2024 BEV sales forecast for Europe appears negligible. However, price changes and variations in demand have been considered in adjusting the forecast.

EV Volumes now expects European EV sales to rise a further 4.9% this year. This is despite the anticipated slower growth of the wider light-vehicle market. Plug-in vehicles would therefore make up for 21.8% of all light-vehicle sales in the region. BEV volumes are forecast to grow by 5.5%, accounting for 68.7% in the 2024 EV market.

PHEV sales should grow by 3.7%, benefitting from any BEV price increases while offering a stepping stone to full electrification. Incentive changes mean BEVs have already lost their price advantage in Germany, for example.

The impact of the new BEV tariffs will be greater in 2025 and beyond. EV Volumes expects that Europe will see up to 120,000 fewer BEV sales annually compared with its June update. Yet the PHEV sales outlook has been modestly increased.

The EV market share is now forecast to reach 25.6% next year, from 25.9% forecast in June. It is then expected to hit 61.9% in 2030, down from 62.3% forecast in June. This is expected to hit 95% by 2035, down from 94.1% forecast in June.

China boom

China’s EV boom continued in 2022 with the powertrain’s share hitting 26.7% from 13.9% in 2021. The government’s target for new energy vehicles (NEVs), including BEVs, PHEVs and FCEVs, to make up 20% of sales by 2025 was therefore reached three years ahead of time.

Growth was less dramatic in 2023, at 36%, but with 8.4 million units delivered, the EV share climbed to 33.9%. PHEVs have taken the lead, accounting for 18% of EVs sold in 2021 to 25% in 2022, then 32% in 2023.

Chinese OEMs continue to roll out new PHEVs, which will boost their appeal. EV Volumes forecasts the powertrain will capture 40% of the country’s EV mix by 2024.

Given the challenging economic situation in China, the government is attempting to stimulate consumer demand and address deflation. This should also bolster state-owned OEMs amid a price war.

Accordingly, EV Volumes slightly increased the light-vehicle market forecast for 2024 to 24 million units. However, this still equates to a 3.2% year-on-year decline.

The government is also planning to provide additional fiscal support to encourage the adoption of cleaner technology, including EVs. Therefore, EV Volumes has increased the EV share outlook to 2035, and expects BEVs to gain ground from 2025 onwards.

In the medium and long term, the China forecast is not restricted by share targets or capacity limitations. EVs are now forecast to account for 44.5% of light-vehicle sales in 2025, growing to 68.5% in 2030, and reaching 84% in 2035.

North America

EV sales in the US and Canada increased by 48% year on year in 2022, following 100% growth in 2021. Growing plug-in demand in 2023 mirrored 2022, although 1.64 million units meant EVs accounted for 9.4% of light-vehicle sales in 2023, up from 7.2% in 2022.

The overall automotive market recovery continues in 2024, albeit at a slightly slower pace than anticipated in March. EV Volumes has also lowered its EV share and volume forecasts as growth has stalled.

The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) supports further, rapid EV growth in the US. This is even with compliance with forthcoming battery and material-sourcing requirements still unclear for many carmakers.

Incentives for producing vehicles and batteries in the region remain strong but also imply handicaps for imported brands and models. The IRA is assumed to remain until 2032 but this could change depending on the outcome of the US election later this year.

The 100% import duty to be levied on EVs imported from China comes into force from 1 August 2024. This should not have a dramatic impact as it only affects a few models. Nevertheless, the Volvo EX30 rollout has been postponed until 2025 and the new Mini Cooper Electric until 2026.

Brands producing EVs in China, such as Lynk&Co, Nio and Smart will not launch in North America until they can relocate production.

EV Volumes forecasts that the EV share of light-vehicle sales in North America will reach 11.3% in 2024, increasing to 15% in 2025. This will increase to 41.2% in 2030 and 73.3% in 2035.

BEVs are expected to account for 78% of the electric vehicle market this year, down from 79.8% in 2023. This share is forecast to rise to 82.9% in 2025, growing to 93.6% in 2030, and 97.2% in 2035.

Non-Triad

EV numbers in the non-Triad markets rose sharply for the third consecutive year in 2023, albeit from a low base. EV demand is increasingly supported by a wider availability of products, higher incentives, and lower import tariffs in some countries.

Combined EV sales in the non-Triad markets reached 554,000 units in 2022 and exceeded one million units in 2023, with growth of 91% and 81%, respectively. Volumes grew by more than 100% in markets including Australia, Thailand, Brazil, Turkey, Malaysia, and Mexico in 2023. Meanwhile, India and Japan recorded growth of 50%.

Nevertheless, the combined EV share was only 3.6% in 2023, albeit up from 2.1% in 2022. Large vehicle markets like India, Japan, Brazil, and Mexico still sell very few EVs relative to their market size. This also pulls down the global average EV share, as non-Triad countries accounted for a third of global light-vehicle sales in 2023.

The growth forecast for all light vehicles in 2024 has been lowered to only 1.2% due to weakness in countries such as Japan and South Korea. However, governments are introducing measures to strengthen their currencies and stimulate consumer demand, which should support future vehicle sales.

Smaller shares

EV Volumes has slightly reduced its EV share forecast for the non-Triad market in 2024 and 2025. However, it has maintained it in the medium and long-term outlooks. This is backed by India incentivising localised EV production and Japan advancing with the development of solid-state batteries.

For 2024, EV Volumes expects an EV share of 4.8% in the non-Triad countries, equating to around 1.4 million sales. This will be boosted by discounting in Thailand, for example. The EV share is predicted to rise to 6.4% in 2025, hitting 17.7% in 2030. This should increase to 42.5% in 2035, trailing global EV adoption by about six years.

Many developing countries impose high tariffs on vehicle imports. Unless EVs are exempt, they will need to develop local industries to catch up with the adoption in mature markets.

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How is Europe’s EV slowdown affecting its market forecast?

EV Volumes

Europe’s electric vehicle (EV) market has slowed in the first half of 2024. But how will it affect the market this year and beyond? Neil King, head of forecasting at EV Volumes, presents the latest forecast with Autovista24 special content editor Phil Curry.

Europe’s new light-vehicle market, made up of passenger cars and light-commercial vehicles (LCVs) is undergoing a difficult year in 2024, following its bounce back from various challenges last year.

The passenger-car market has seen slow growth, with declines in March and May, while the LCV market is currently performing well, but offers smaller volumes into the new light-vehicle sector.

The latest figures are compared to a period, however, where volumes increased rapidly, following the impact of a supply-chain crisis in 2021 and 2022. This was exacerbated by the war in Ukraine, and the fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic.

Yet, the market this year is more subdued, due to high interest rates and the continuing cost-of-living crisis.

With this in mind, EV Volumes has revised its forecasts from March 2024. The European new light-vehicle market is now expected to grow by 2.6% this year, a lower figure than the 3.1% improvement forecast earlier this year.

The 15.1 million units this equates to is far short of the 18 million vehicles registered in Europe during 2019. EV Volumes does not see the European market returning to this level during the current forecast horizon, which runs to 2035.

EV market fluctuates

In 2023, European new EV deliveries, made up of battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) increased by 17.4% year on year. A total of 3.15 million units were registered, gaining a 21.4% market share, up from the 20.7% share seen in 2022.

This is despite many countries, including Germany, France and Ireland, reducing incentives for EVs during the year, especially for PHEVs. Even Norway, a leading market in plug-in  adoption, ended its VAT exemption in the year.

Germany abruptly ended incentives for BEVs in December, Ireland reduced purchase subsidies in July, and France has further reduced their incentives, removing them completely for company-car buyers and vehicles imported into Europe. Also, in January of this year, Switzerland completely removed the 4% import tax exemption for BEVs.

In addition, most legacy OEMs can stay safely below their CO2 limits without selling more EVs. This means they can turn their attention back to more profitable internal-combustion engine (ICE) vehicles.

However, there have been positive steps in the EV market this year. Italy has introduced a new incentive scheme, while countries such as Spain and Poland are considering the revision of plug-in purchase subsidies.

There are also more affordable BEVs rolling out, such as the Citroen e-C3. Meanwhile, global EV leader BYD has expansion plans for the region, as do other Chinese OEMs.

Slowdown continues

EV Volumes has lowered its forecast for EVs in Europe’s new light-vehicle market this year. The sector is expected to grow by 4.9% compared to 2023, despite the anticipated lacklustre growth of the wider light-vehicle market. The technology is predicted to account for around 22% of all new light-vehicle sales.

Volumes of BEVs are forecast to grow 5.4% and take a 68.9% share of the EV market. However, EV Volumes forecasts 3.7% growth for PHEVs, as they offer a stepping stone to full electrification. In addition, incentive changes mean BEVs have lost their price advantage in markets such as Germany, for example.

This forecast does not factor in the import duties that the European Commission is proposing to apply on BEVs imported from China. Talks between both governments are continuing, with Chinese authorities looking to avoid tariffs of up to 38.1% being applied to vehicles imported into Europe. Should talks fail, these will apply provisionally from 4 July, with final tariffs confirmed in November of this year.

Compared to the previous forecast, EV Volumes has slightly lowered its 2024 volume and share expectations for EVs in Europe. This is partially because of the lower overall market outlook, but is mainly due to the sluggish growth across multiple markets and the lacklustre recovery of BEV demand in Germany in particular.

The European market share of EVs is now forecast to reach 25.9% in 2025, down from the previous forecast of 29.4%. In 2030, this will grow to 62.2% (originally 67.3%) and will reach 94.1% in 2035, a slight reduction from the previous 94.5% figure.

The forecast for 2035 includes some tolerance for timing interpretations of the continent’s zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate. It also allows for exemptions for ICE vehicles that may be deemed unsuitable for full electrification.

LCV Growth

New LCVs still lag far behind in EV uptake. Yet their 49% growth in 2023 is encouraging, especially compared to the 16% growth for passenger cars.

High prices compared to diesel LCVs are still a barrier to adoption. However, key new products such as the Ford Transit, Renault Trafic, and VW Transporter BEVs, will bolster demand. Upgraded versions of the small, medium, and large electric vans offered by Stellantis brands will also improve volumes.

EV Volumes now forecast that the EV share of LCVs will climb from 7.5% in 2023, which itself was up from 5.8% in 2022, to an 8.6% hold of the market in 2024. This will increase to an 11.8% share in 2025, with the technology taking 53.4% in 2030.

Long term, the ZEV mandate for 2035 will further accelerate the transition to pure-electric LCVs. The forecast assumes that all Western and Central European markets will follow the directive, allowing for some exemptions and grace periods. Therefore, the ZEV share does not reach 100% in 2035, but EV Volumes forecast a 93.3% share, compared to 94.2% for passenger cars.

The role of e-fuels and other CO2-neutral ICE fuels is still uncertain but will likely be limited to niche concepts, also depending on national tax regimes. EV Volumes also expect the deployment of hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles (FCEVs) to be limited in light commercial vehicles, with their share peaking at just 0.02%.

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Europe’s medium and heavy-duty truck markets continue to electrify

commercial vehicles

The electrification of Europe’s medium and heavy-duty truck sector is growing, with more models available, enabling increased registrations and lower emissions. Przemek Kolasa, data manager for commercial vehicles at EV Volumes, explores the figures with Autovista24 special content editor Phil Curry.

The EU transport sector is responsible for more than a quarter of greenhouse gas emissions in the bloc. However, in the commercial-vehicle segment, the transition to zero-emission mobility is well underway.

Domestic vehicle manufacturers are contributing to this move, working heavily on the electrification of their products. Most have already launched zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) for different commercial applications.

However, there is a greater need to accelerate this transition. In February 2024, the European Commission increased the target reductions in CO2 emissions for heavy-duty commercial vehicles. In 2030, levels must be 45% lower than those recorded in 2019, while this increases to a 65% reduction in 2035, and a 90% reduction in 2040.

Helping the market is the development of national strategy frameworks, which implement EU regulations on the expansion of the bloc’s charging and hydrogen infrastructure.

This is aimed at enabling the rollout of fast chargers, reducing the charging times for carriers. The medium-duty sector will benefit from this the most, with EV Volumes data showing that the average range of a vehicle in this segment is 220km.

For heavy-duty trucks, the average range is 330km on a single charge. To help fleets in this market, a transition from the current Combined Charge System to the Megawatt Charge System (MCS) is being studied. This will help to drastically reduce charging times for larger vehicles, as the MCS can deliver up to 3.5 megawatts of power.

MDVs lead the way

In terms of primary application, the majority of ZEVs in the medium and heavy-duty vehicle market belong to the medium-duty van (MDV) segment. This is made up of panel vans above 3.5 tonnes gross vehicle weight (GVW), and holds a 48% share of zero-emission deliveries.

This is followed by rigid trucks with a 37% share of ZEVs, then comes semi-trailers (7%). The remaining 8% is shared amongst other applications, such as refuse collectors and fire trucks.

In terms of share by segment, the electric medium-duty truck market held a 7% share of the overall market in 2023. This was an increase of 3.7 percentage points (pp) over its 2022 figures.

Most electric medium-duty trucks are MDVs, and the ability to drive one of these vehicles up to 4.25-tonnes GVW with a category B driving license is boosting sales growth. New regulations in Germany are also helping. Vehicles with a GVW above 3.5 tonnes travelling in the country will be subject to road tolls after 1 July. The rate per kilometre will be around €0.25, and will depend on the CO2 emission class and Euro classification.

In 2023, the medium segment was dominated by Ford, followed by Daimler Truck Group and Maxus. The OEMs are offering strong products for MDV applications, such as the Ford e-Transit, Mercedes e-Sprinter and Maxus eDeliver 9, which held a 41%, 17% and 11% market share respectively in 2023.

A positive start

The first quarter of 2024 saw further growth for medium-duty electric models. Compared to the same period in 2023, the market has grown by 2% in terms of volumes. However, the market share has dropped, with the three-month figure sitting at 7.7%, down by 0.4pp compared to the previous year.

Between January and March, Ford continued to hold the top spot in the charts, with a 61% share of deliveries, an increase of 10pp year on year. The manufacturer was followed by Daimler Truck Group, which saw its share fall by 10pp to 7%. CHN Group took third place, with a 6% market share doubling what it held at the same point in 2023.

Heavy-duty growth

For the heavy-duty segment, electric trucks above 16 tonnes GVW captured a 1% market share in 2023, increasing by 0.6pp year on year.

Volvo Truck Group has been a market leader in the electric heavy-duty market for a while, and continued this trend in 2023, registering a 61% share. They were followed by Daimler Truck Group with 11% of the market, and Volkswagen (VW) Group, which took 10%.

The lead for Volvo Truck Group was helped by its strong electric lineup. The manufacturer offers the Volvo FE, FL, FH, FM and FMX as well as the Renault D and T series to customers, which have proven popular. Meanwhile, Daimler Truck launched the eActros, the eAtego, and the eEconic, which is mostly for refuse collector applications. Finally, VW Group is offered the Scania G/L/P/R/S series and the MAN eTGM and eTGX.

During the first quarter of 2024, the electric heavy-duty truck market also saw growth. Deliveries were up 19% in terms of volumes, with a market share of 2.2%, up 0.4pp over the first quarter of 2023.

Volvo still led the market at the end of the quarter, but its 50% share was 15pp down compared to the first three months of last year. Daimler Truck Group increased its market share by 15pp, as it rose from 6% last year to 21% for this period in 2024. Meanwhile, VW Group captured 15% of electric deliveries, down by 6pp year on year.

Fuel cell extension

Hydrogen fuel-cell technology is a good option to extend the range for heavy-duty transport as it transitions to zero-emission mobility in Europe. While electric trucks can travel 330km on a single charge, it will most likely be 2026 before the market sees batteries that can offer up to 550km range.

In Europe, the fuel-cell electric vehicle (FCEV) share is dominated by Hyundai with its Xcient FCEV. A total of 150 units will be delivered by the end of 2024, with Germany likely to be their biggest market. However, many units will also be going to Switzerland, among other countries.

Overall, it is clear that the electrification of the medium- and heavy-duty commercial vehicle market is increasing, both in manufacturer developments and fleet purchases. Domestic manufacturers in Europe still lead the way, yet the potential of Chinese brands looking to enter the market, with a focus on the medium segment, could alter the future picture.

Go to Autovista24 for related articles.

EU Commission confirms provisional tariffs on BEVs made in China

With provisional tariffs now imposed on imports of battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) made in China, how will this affect the European market? In the latest Autovista24 podcast, editor Tom Geggus and special content editor Phil Curry discuss the news.

BEVs made in China and imported into the EU are now subject to provisional tariffs. The European Commission confirmed the move as governmental talks continue. But which carmakers are facing steeper levies, and what is the likely impact on Europe’s automotive market?

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Show notes

Commission imposes provisional countervailing duties on imports of battery electric vehicles from China while discussions with China continue

Commission implementing regulation

Key points paper: European Commission’s anti-subsidy investigation

EU governments hesitant on Chinese EV tariffs as trade spat escalates

BEVs made in China face new provisional EU tariffs on top of existing duties

China’s impact on the European Automotive Industry

How to recharge Europe’s battery-electric vehicle market

The background

Following a month of talks, the European Commission has confirmed the implementation of provisional tariffs on BEVs imported from China. It aims to level the competition with domestic carmakers when it comes to list prices.

On 4 October 2023, the Commission launched an investigation into the illegal subsidisation of BEV value chains in China. Then on 12 June 2024, the investigation’s provisional conclusion was given following talks with the Chinese government.

‘As part of its ongoing investigation, the Commission has provisionally concluded that the battery-electric vehicle value chain in China benefits from unfair subsidisation, which is causing a threat of economic injury to EU BEV producers. The investigation also examined the likely consequences and impact of measures on importers, users and consumers of BEVs in the EU,’ the Commission stated at the time.

As a result, the Commission outlined new duties it would apply to BEVs made in China and imported into the EU. These pre-disclosed rates were calculated based on the amount of subsidisation the investigation uncovered.

Tariffs in place

On 4 July 2024, the Commission confirmed the provisional tariffs it would place on each BEV imported into the EU from China. The tariff rate was lowered slightly for many companies since the June pre-disclosure. This was the result of comments from interest parties on how the pre-disclosed duties were calculated.

These confirmed provisional duties will be in addition to the current 10% levy applied to imports, and will come into effect as of 5 July 2024 for a maximum duration of four months. Within this time, the Commission has confirmed that a final decision on the definitive duties can be expected.

This will follow a vote by EU Member States. If a qualified majority of at least 15 member states, representing a minimum 65% of the EU population, vote against tariffs, they will be blocked. When adopted, this final decision would make the duties definitive for five years. 

Possible outcomes

Christof Ruhland, director of business development at Autovista Group (part of J.D. Power), suggested several possible outcomes of the tariff implementation. These include:

  1. Chinese OEMs may delay or limit their BEV market entry strategies in Europe. This is because the new tariffs change their calculations
  2. There could be an increase in plug-in and full hybrid models, as these are not affected by the new tariffs
  3. Consumer prices for BEVs will rise as tariffs are too high to be absorbed by the profit margin. This also affects BEV models from European manufacturers that are produced in China
  4. Some Chinese imports may be redirected to non-EU countries like Norway and the UK, or other regions such as the Middle East or Brazil
  5. There will be an increasing need for Chinese OEMs to establish production sites in the EU to avoid import tariffs
  6. The tariffs could hinder the EU's environmental objectives by making EVs less accessible to the public, thereby slowing the transition from ICE to BEVs
  7. If there is no agreement on the matter, China will most likely introduce retaliatory measures, risking a wider trade war that could damage the European economy (not just the automotive sector).

Model impact

There will be an impact on several models currently available in Europe. Some cars in the January to May EV best-seller table, compiled with data from EV Volumes, will likely see tariffs imposed upon them.

The Tesla Model 3, currently the second best-selling EV in Europe, will likely be affected. However, the US manufacturer, facing a 20.8% tariff, has requested a review for an individual levy, which will be implemented at the definitive stage.  

The MG4, built by SAIC, was the seventh best-selling EV across the first five months of this year and is facing the highest tariff level. Geely’s Volvo EX30 is also likely to be affected. However, production of this model starts in Europe next year, meaning it will no longer face charges when it shifts manufacturing out of China. The world’s most popular carmaker, BYD, does not feature in Europe’s EV top 20 at present.

The overall EU BEV market will surely be affected by the tariffs. The region is looking to continue its transition to zero-emission mobility, making affordability a central tenant for mass marketability. But these duties mean carmakers are faced with a decision. Either absorb the tariff costs meaning smaller margins, or pass costs on to the consumer. Should this happen the region’s transition could struggle with fewer affordable models available.

This content is brought to you by Autovista24.

How to recharge Europe’s battery-electric vehicle market

What condition is Europe’s battery-electric vehicle (BEV) market in, can adoption be accelerated and could Chinese brands recharge uptake? Autovista Group experts consider these questions in a new webinar with Autovista24 editor Tom Geggus.

Concerns and questions are currently swirling around Europe’s BEV market. Is this what the adoption of a new technology should look like? What part must infrastructure play in supporting consumer confidence? Do new brands from Asia present an opportunity or a threat?

Autovista Group experts set out to answer these questions in a new webinar: How to recharge Europe’s battery-electric vehicle market. Panellists included Dr Christof Engelskirchen, chief economist at Autovista Group, Christoph Ruhland, director of business development at Autovista Group and Christian Schneider, director of content at EV Volumes.

Taking stock of the markets

Schneider explained that different European new-car markets are witnessing BEV adoption at varying rates. For example, Norway has long led the charge on BEVs, with all-electric vehicles making up the vast majority of registrations in the first quarter of this year.

Meanwhile, other major markets such as Spain and Italy are still struggling to drive registrations. In the first three months of 2024, these countries remained in the early-adopter phase, with BEVs making up a relatively small percentage of deliveries.

Transitioning BEVs towards the mass market will require continued effort from major industry players, Schneider explained. This includes the likes of governments, OEMs and utility companies. In countries where governmental support for BEVs has been withdrawn, the powertrain’s market share has been noticeably affected.

Meanwhile, the situation on the used market is even more severe. There are little to no incentives for used-car buyers to switch from internal-combustion engine models to BEVs. Sales of new models have been driven by attractive conditions for fleets and company car buyers. However, there is less on offer to attract private used-car buyers, which presents an issue for the models being de-fleeted.

Autovista Group’s Residual Value Intelligence tool confirms the continual pressure being experienced by all powertrains. However, this pressure is being felt far more acutely by BEVs and PHEVs as supply increases but demand fails to keep pace.

How to accelerate market adoption

Engelskirchen pointed out that battery health certificates could help drive used-BEV adoption. By certifying the condition of a used battery, consumer confidence can be bolstered while sellers see greater remarketing results. This will also ensure better BEV treatment as current owners modify their driving style and charging behaviours to ensure better test results.

Another way of supporting BEV uptake across the new and used-car markets is ensuring the development of public charging infrastructure. While the number of charging points has been growing in recent years, this figure has slowed more recently, Schneider commented.

The spread of charging infrastructure has not been even either, with different countries seeing varying levels of development. The number of BEVs per charging station recorded in 2023 was high in Sweden, Denmark and Norway, but far lower in Spain, Italy and the Netherlands.

Will China recharge Europe’s BEV market?

Brands from China could help recharge Europe’s BEV market. These companies have made substantial investments in the research and development of electric-vehicle technology. This includes battery systems, charging capabilities and autonomous driving features, Ruhland outlined.

Alongside this, these carmakers can offer BEVs at a comparatively competitive price point. This could generate more momentum behind the mass-market uptake of all-electric cars, as well as stimulating greater competitiveness.

Chinese brands have employed a range of strategies to enter the European market. This includes acquiring known brands and utilising their reputation and customer loyalty. Building production sites in Europe is another method, which allows these carmakers to tailor their products to local tastes. Setting up European sales operations is the most common approach, however. With a European sales headquarters, brands can be built up locally with specific marketing campaigns.

One of the major hurdles for new entrants is standing out in an already saturated market, alongside other incoming brands. To overcome this, carmakers can take a number of different approaches. This can include emphasising BEV innovation, value for money, quality, customer experience and differentiated design.

To find out more about Europe’s BEV market and Autovista Group’s products and services head over to the webinar landing page.

This content is brought to you by Autovista24.

How popular are electric buses in Europe?

EV Volumes

Europe’s electric-bus market ended 2023 on a high, but has this growth continued into the first quarter of 2024? Przemek Kolasa, data manager for commercial vehicles at EV Volumes, examines the trends with Autovista24 special content editor Phil Curry.

Made up of full-electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles, Europe’s electric-bus market is growing steadily. Between 2021 and 2023, these models increased their hold on the new-bus market by seven percentage points, capturing 18% at the end of last year.

Full hybrid, alternative fuels (including liquid-petroleum gas, compressed-natural gas and ethanol) and hydrogen fuel-cell (FCEV), held respective shares of 11%, 10% and 0.5%. Between 2021 and 2023, they increased their hold by 2pp, 1pp and 0.07pp respectively.

Diesel buses still dominated the market, holding a 60% share at the end of 2023. However, this share has dropped 11pp from 2021.

Domestic buses first

In the fourth quarter of last year, Volkswagen (VW) Group topped the list of electric-bus manufacturers, with a 15% share of all registrations over the three months. The German brand was followed by Volvo, which took 11% of the market, and Daimler held 9%.

This performance helped VW Group end the year as the market leader, with a rapid increase in market share since 2021. The manufacturer took 11.3% of the electric-bus market, increasing its hold by 8pp over the two years.

CAF finished the year in second, thanks to a 10.1% market share. However, this was down by 2pp compared to 2022. Chinese manufacturer BYD also struggled, finishing in third with a market share of 9.6%, down 5pp year on year.

VW Group’s position was helped by a 260% increase in registrations during 2023, while CAF also increased its deliveries, albeit by 10%. Highlighting its struggle in the year, BYD saw 12% fewer registrations when compared to 2022.

Overall, the electric-bus market finished 2023 with a 47% registration increase, totalling more than 7,000 units.

Lion's leads the way

The leading model in the 2023 electric bus market was the Lion’s City, manufactured by MAN. It comes in three lengths and is equipped with a lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide (NMC) battery. It has an average capacity of 506kWh and an estimated range is 350km.

Next on the list of leading models was the Urbino, from Solaris. It comes in four lengths and was equipped with NMC batteries until 2022. Since then, Solaris has equipped the Urbino with lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) batteries, providing an average capacity of 546kWh and an estimated range of 450km.

The BYD K-Series was the next most popular model in 2023. It is 12-metres long and features LFP batteries with a maximum capacity of 422kWh. This means an estimated range of 450km.

Chinese struggles

Last year, the influence of Chinese manufacturers in the market started to wane. BYD and Yutong, the biggest companies from China in Europe at present, saw their shares decrease in 2023. BYD lost more than 5pp year-on-year, while Yutong lost 3pp compared to 2022.

This indicates that local manufacturers have taken note of the Chinese incursion into the electric-bus market, and have been developing their products to compete. This is likely the reason VW Group led the market at the end of 2023, with domestic manufacturers growing their shares.

Boost for hydrogen buses

In the medium and heavy bus segment, FCEVs are becoming a serious alternative to battery-electric and plug-in hybrid powertrains. In 2023, sales of fuel-cell models increased by 65%. This result is even more impressive as it came after a two-year slump for the technology.

In 2024 and beyond, more positive numbers are expected. There are new agreements between fuel-cell supplier Ballard and several bus manufacturers. Additionally, there are lots of standing orders in countries like Germany, Italy, France, Spain and the UK.

First quarter performance

In the first three months of 2024, electric buses held a 14% share of the market. This was the same as in the first quarter of 2022, but 2pp down on the same period last year.

However, in terms of volumes, the market finished the quarter with registrations increasing by 7.6% year on year, with more than 1,600 units registered.

The electric-bus sector is not the only one struggling. Fuel-cell buses saw their market share decrease 1.5pp to a 0.5% hold, while hybrids dropped 3pp to 9%, and alternative fuels declined 1pp, to a 5% market share.

As local manufacturers work hard on their products, competitiveness is growing, and it is possible to choose from a larger variety of buses. During the first quarter of 2024, First Bus (Wrightbus) led the way, with an 11.3% share, followed by Daimler with 10.7% and VW Group, through its Traton Division, with a 9.4% share.

Looking ahead

Despite domestic brands leading the way in 2023, taking the top two positions in the electric-bus manufacturers chart, it is likely that Chinese OEMs will fight back. With very low production costs, these brands can be more competitive when it comes to pricing, which may entice buyers.

Some local manufacturers are claiming that Chinese brands are heavily subsidised by the country’s government, and this leads to an unfair advantage in the European market.

It is, therefore, expected that Brussels will be keeping a close eye on the electric-bus market to ensure that competition is fair. Those countries that are not governed by the EU will also likely be watching the situation.

Go to Autovista24 for related articles.

Global EV growth forecast in 2024, but challenges remain

Despite current market conditions leading to amendments in global electric vehicle (EV) forecasts, the market is still expected to improve. Neil King, head of forecasting at EV Volumes (part of J.D. Power), presents the outlook with Autovista24 special content editor Phil Curry.

The global light-vehicle market, made up of passenger cars and light-commercial vehicles (LCVs) grew by 10% year on year in 2023. However, the numbers were still below those seen in 2019. This highlights the ongoing impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, supply shortages and the cost-of-living crisis.

While there was double-digit growth in Europe and North America (combining the US and Canada), gains were more subdued in China and the non-Triad region. Retail sales in China recovered from a sharp decline in 2022. The country’s government is seeking to stimulate an economy suffering from a struggling property sector, a lacklustre stock market, and high youth unemployment.

Global EV demand to improve

EV demand, made up of battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), continues to grow despite economic currents. Global volumes grew 35% year-on-year in 2023 to reach 14.2 million units, equating to a market share of 16.7%, up from 13.6% in 2022. For the first time since 2020, PHEVs (up 47%) grew faster than BEVs (up 30%).

In 2024, EV Volumes expects 16.6 million EV sales, equating to a 19.2% share of the light-vehicle market. Therefore, plug-in deliveries are forecast to grow by 17%, while the total market is only expected to improve by 1%.

However, the global EV share forecast has been lowered, with EV Volumes expecting 1.2 million fewer sales than in its previous outlook. This is largely due to a more cautious prediction for China and the slow development of EV uptake in North America. This translates to around 470,000 fewer EV sales in each region compared to previous outlooks.

Additionally, EV forecasts for Europe and the non-Triad region are each around 130,000 units lower. In the case of Europe, subsidy cuts have led to expectations of a lower EV share.

In the non-Triad region, the downgrade is due to weaker overall market growth. This stems from economic fragility in Japan and Korea, which is having a knock-on effect across other Asian economies.

Lower future volume increase

Global EV sales volumes are forecast to more than double in the coming years. According to the latest data, this will take levels from 14 million units in 2023 to 29 million units in 2027.

Yet the global EV share is predicted to be lower between 2024 to 2028 than previously expected, reaching 22.6% in 2025 and 35% in 2028. From 2029, the EV share is expected to be higher than previously forecast.

This is due to healthier assumptions of EV uptake in the non-Triad region. Alongside this, there has also been a correction to historic light-vehicle sales*, which has increased the EV share in the region.

Between 2023 and 2027, EV Volumes forecast that annual traction battery demand will rise from 0.7TWh to 1.9TWh, up 163%. This will be driven by the desire for longer electric ranges in all vehicle segments. An additional influence is the electrification of the full-size SUV and pickup markets in North America.

However, the trend for larger batteries is slowing as efficiency increases. Lower costs also facilitate their use in smaller vehicles, the electrification of which has been hindered by comparatively tighter profit margins.

Challenges in Europe

In Europe, the new light-vehicle market grew by 13.9% year-on-year in 2023. The sector was aided by improving supply, which reduced order backlogs created by component shortages in previous years.

The EV market faced challenges in several countries throughout last year. France saw its subsidies reduced. Meanwhile, Germany ended incentives for business purchases in September, and abruptly for private buyers in December. Even Norway, considered the leading market in Europe for EVs, announced it was ending VAT exemption for plug-ins.

Nevertheless, EV registrations in Europe increased by 17.3% year-on-year in 2023, to 3.15 million units. This allowed the technology to take a joint 21.3% share of all light-vehicle deliveries, up from 20.7% in the previous year.

There are more challenges ahead in 2024 as order intake is subdued because of high-interest rates. With no more incentives in Germany, the country’s EV market will experience its first full year without financial aid for buyers. In France, subsidies for company buyers have now concluded and EV models exported into Europe are no longer eligible for incentives.

EV Volumes expects European EV deliveries to grow by 18% year on year, to 3.7 million units, accounting for around a quarter of all light-vehicle sales. The growth will be predominantly driven by BEVs, volumes of which are forecast to grow by 23.5% this year, but PHEVs are also forecast to improve in 2024, with 5.6% growth.

The European market share of BEVs and PHEVs combined is forecast to reach 29% in 2025 and 58% in 2029.

China growth continues

In China, the EV boom continued in 2022 with the powertrain’s share rising to 26.7% from 13.9% in 2021. Volumes of EVs, including LCVs, ended close to 6.2 million units. This was a year-on-year increase of 82% in a total light-vehicle market that contracted by 5.3%.

Growth was less dramatic in 2023, at 36%, but with 8.4 million units delivered, the EV share climbed to 33.9%. PHEVs had a stronger share of the EV market, from 18% in 2021 to 25% in 2022. This continued in 2023 with PHEVs accounting for 32% of EV registrations in the year. This was largely caused by the high sales growth of BYD PHEVs and Li Auto EREV SUVs.

Unsurprisingly, other Chinese OEMs are rolling out countless new PHEVs, which will exacerbate their appeal. EV Volumes forecasts that this powertrain will capture a higher share of the EV market in 2024. However, this is mitigated by a BEV price war, meaning the all-electric share is expected to gain ground from 2025 onwards.

Given the challenging economic situation in China, the government is seeking to encourage consumers to spend instead of save. This will support state-owned OEMs in the process, but not necessarily their EV offerings. EV Volumes has reduced the plug-in share outlook, especially in the coming years.

However, in the medium and long term, the China forecast is not restricted by target shares or capacity limitations. EVs are forecast to account for 43% of light-vehicle sales in 2025, rising to 62% in 2029.

Uncertainty apparent in North America

North American EV sales increased by 48% year-on-year in 2022, following a 100% improvement in 2021.

The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) supports further EV growth in the US. The incentives for producing vehicles and batteries in the also region remain strong but place roadblocks in front of imported brands and models. Furthermore, recent strikes by the Union of Auto Workers (UAW) highlighted the risks that EVs may pose to domestic OEMs and US jobs in the automotive sector.

With 1.64 million units sold in 2023, the EV share of light-vehicle sales rose to 9.4%, up from 7.2% in 2022. The overall market recovery continues, albeit at a slower pace than previously anticipated. Therefore, EV Volumes has lowered its EV share and volume forecasts in the short term as OEMs push back on electrified versions of popular models.

The forecast has also been lowered in the medium and longer term as the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has approved emissions targets that are lower than originally proposed.

OEMs must have a light-duty fleet average of 170g CO2 per mile in 2027, compared to 152g per mile in the draft proposal. This lowers to 85g per mile in 2032, instead of the proposed 82g per mile. The final targets also call for a 49% reduction in emissions by 2032 compared to 2026, instead of the 56% proposed.

The IRA is assumed to stay effective until 2032, but even that could change depending on the outcome of the US election. EV Volumes currently forecasts that the plug-in share of light-vehicle sales will reach 12.7% in 2024, then 16.5% in 2025 and 35% in 2029.

BEVs are expected to account for 81% of the EV market this year, rising to 85% in 2025 and 93% in 2029.

Tricky conditions in non-Triad markets

EV numbers in the non-Triad markets rose sharply for the third consecutive year in 2023, although this was compared to low figures. Demand is increasingly supported by a wider availability of products, higher incentives and lower import tariffs in some countries.

The recovery of the wider light-vehicle market since 2020, which gathered pace again in 2023, has also supported volume growth. Combined EV sales in the non-Triad markets amounted to 292,000 units in 2021, reached 554,000 units in 2022, and exceeded one million units in 2023, with a yearly growth of 91% and 81% respectively.

Volumes of EVs grew by more than 100% in some markets last year. This includes Australia, Thailand, Brazil, Turkey, Malaysia, and Mexico. Meanwhile, India and Japan saw growth of above 50%. Nevertheless, the combined EV share was only 3.5% in 2023, albeit up from 2.1% in 2022. Markets such as India, Japan, Brazil, and Mexico still sell very few EVs relative to their size.

This also pulls down the global average EV share, as the non-Triad countries accounted for a third of global light-vehicle sales last year. EV Volumes has broadly maintained its EV share forecast in the coming years, but has increased the potential in the longer term with India incentivising localised EV production and Japan forging ahead with the development of solid-state batteries.

For 2024, an EV share of 4.9% in the non-Triad countries is expected, with around 1.4 million sales, boosted by various factors such as discounting in Thailand, for example. The EV share is predicted to rise to 6.5% in 2025 and 14.5% in 2029, trailing global EV adoption by about six years. Many developing countries impose high tariffs on vehicle imports and unless they exempt EVs, they will need to develop their own EV industry to catch up with adoption in mature markets.

*Global light-vehicle market volumes have been corrected historically as they previously included double-counting of Chinese exports. This also inflated the non-Triad total market volumes, which are calculated by subtracting Europe and Northern America volumes from the global volumes. This means EV Volumes EV shares are higher globally and in the non-Triad region, both historically and in the forecast, than previously reported. However, the volumes of EVs are unaffected.

How important are BEV battery health certificates?

Autovista24

The value of a battery-electric vehicle (BEV) can be determined largely by one component. This makes certifying the quality of this part essential to reselling. Autovista24 editor Tom Geggus considers the development and importance of battery health certificates.

Remarketing an internal-combustion engine (ICE) vehicle inevitably involves referencing the model’s age and mileage. For buyers and sellers, these two numbers bring a car’s history, value and potential into focus.

However, these signposts are blurred for BEVs. The standard measures of time and distance are less informative, with next to no indicators about driving or charging behaviour. This makes a battery a black box of information.

‘Essential information regarding the battery status of an electric vehicle is not readily accessible to customers. It is not displayed on the screen, nor can it be automatically retrieved from the battery management system,’ Dr Marcus Berger, CEO of battery diagnostics company Aviloo told Autovista24.

‘Consequently, the electric vehicle battery is unfortunately often considered a black box. Transparency in the remarketing process is crucial for its smooth operation.’

Battery black box

This lack of information creates concern in the used-car market. Both dealers and consumers can struggle to identify BEVs that have been treated optimally. All-electric cars have felt this impact across European used-car markets.

BEV residual values (RVs) have been falling in Austria, Germany, Italy, Switzerland and the UK. These countries saw RVs of three-year-old BEVs drop year on year in absolute and percentage terms during January, February and March. Spain has seen values increase, however, all-electric models remain difficult to sell in the country.

As an indicator of demand, used BEV stock days far exceeded that of all other major powertrains across Austria, Germany, Italy, Spain, Switzerland and the UK. Looking at active adverts from the last 12 months on average, only plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) came close. Meanwhile, diesel, petrol and full hybrids (HEVs) took far less time to sell.

Certificate clarity

In a report published in February, the UK House of Lords acknowledged this lack of certainty around electric vehicles (EVs). It highlighted that consumer confidence in the used-car market is being undermined by uncertainty about battery health.

‘We welcome industry’s work to develop a battery health standard that would give confidence to consumers. The government should accelerate its collaboration with industry to develop a battery health standard that is objective and reliable,’ the report reads.

'EVs unfortunately still lose almost 10% more value after three years than combustion engine cars. Independent battery certificates will bring the values of used EVs to the same level as combustion engine cars,’ Berger said.

Autovista Group underscored how battery health certificates can positively influence used-BEV values in a joint whitepaper. Testing can verify the condition of a used battery in the immediate term, while a move to routine certification promotes better treatment of BEVs more broadly.

Surveying more than 2,000 drivers in the UK, the Green Finance Institute (GFI) found that battery certificates and guarantees held high potential. Respondents ranked these as the two leading solutions that would encourage drivers to buy a used electric car.

The potential of these products was also recognised by dealerships. ‘All of the 21 dealerships that contributed to this report agreed that a battery health certificate or battery value guarantee would provide confidence that the remaining battery health is adequate when selling a used EV,’ the GFI stated.

Transparency for traders

Berger highlighted the indispensable nature of transparency and market regulation when it comes to sustainable long-term development. This is something battery-health certificates could deliver, opening the door to faster and more valuable sales for used-car sellers.

These advantages would be accompanied by enhanced credibility, a positive reputation and strengthened client relationships. This means the benefits of battery certificates would be widespread across the automotive sector.

Berger pointed out that carmakers also need a strong used-EV market to meet sales targets. Meanwhile, customers stand to benefit from the security provided by more detailed and reliable vehicle data accompanied by certificates.

In-person tests

Providing in-person tests, Altelium looks to illuminate an area shrouded in complexities. Alex Johns, the company’s partnership lead, explained to Autovista24 that unpacking battery health is a matter of making analysis meaningful to consumers and dealers.

Depending on vehicle type, Altelium’s battery assessment can be carried out on a stationary BEV via a plug-in diagnostic device or API charge testing. By moving past overly-complicated feedback which can be of little practical use at the point of purchase, these results are simplified and visual. This can go a long way in combatting BEV concerns.

‘There are things which obviously worry people,’ Johns said. ‘Range, we can answer those questions. How long the battery is going to last or what the health of the battery is, we can answer those questions and we can put money behind it to give you proper reassurance.’

Peace of mind

Being able to analyse battery performance allows Altelium to provide peace of mind. Carmakers can provide BEV warranties up to approximately 10 years or 100,000 miles, often covering breakdown and degradation. But Johns explained that under these warranties the degradation trigger point is often set at 70%.

‘Nearly all of them have their trigger points at 70% state of health. That is a long way down,’ he said. ‘You will not get to 70% state of health until things have been going wrong for a long time. So, we have come up with one which we call the sleep easy warranty.’

This 12-month cover provides additional reassurance for used-EV purchasers. If the battery health drops by a set percentage in the first year, Altelium issues a fixed cash settlement. The company also provides extended warranties for up to three years after the OEM’s warranty expires.

So, these tests can illuminate important battery information. Alongside this they can form a foundation of financial support, providing used buyers with even more confidence.

App-enabled analysis

Another method of analysis could require little more than a smartphone. Patrick Cresswell, managing director of ClearWatt told Autovista24 that in shaping a solution, his company was focused on creating an agnostic product. The resulting mobile app was designed to benefit all BEVs from day one.

‘We launched the first iteration of our products about a year ago,’ Cresswell said. ‘Since then, we have tested thousands of journeys. We currently have testers across four continents and there is a lot of international demand for what we are doing. We have also launched some very key pilots with the likes of Octopus Electric Vehicles, Motability and others.’

After installing the ClearWatt app, users enter their car model and license plate. Three drives will then need to be completed with the app running. By recording the state of charge at the beginning and end of these journeys, ClearWatt can assess the battery’s health while controlling for other variables such as environmental conditions.

‘What we have essentially built is a mobile telematics device which in very high-frequency bursts, is giving us all of the information we need about driving style, speed, acceleration profiles,’ Cresswell added. ‘We are also getting elevation of the roads, temperature conditions and wind speed and direction.’

Controlling these factors enables analysis of a BEV’s miles-per-kWh performance, where efficiency reveals the state of battery health. This is then compiled into a graded report, enabling greater confidence during the selling process.

Meeting regulations

Battery tests and certificates will not only bolster confidence in used BEVs but may also prove essential when it comes to new regulations. Recently adopted by the European Council, the Euro 7 emission standards look to set battery durability requirements for BEVs.

Under these proposed rules, the battery in an electric car must maintain a minimum of 80% of its capacity in its first five years, or up to 100,000km. After eight years or 160,000km, these units will be required to retain 72% of their original charge capacity.

Meanwhile, from February 2027, the EU Battery Regulation will require passports for EV and industrial power storage units over 2kWh. This digital record will contain key component information including a unique identifier, as well as the battery’s basic characteristics including type and model.

This passport will also need to provide statistics detailing performance and durability. It will need to be updated throughout the battery’s lifecycle by those repairing or repurposing the unit. This information will need to be shared with the public, regulators and service providers who deal with batteries at the end of their life.

A recent study published by Battery Pass assessed the value of the EU Battery Passport. The benefit to RV assessment was among the consortium’s 12 considered used cases. It confirmed that historic performance and durability information made available through the passport could improve the RV determination process.

This would be the result of reducing the need for technical tests and improving assessment accuracy. This would enable decision-making between second-life and recycling options. So, by making performance assessments mandatory, regulations like these could greatly benefit not only the understanding of battery durability but also BEV RVs.

As regulations require greater durability and companies provide better status insights, the importance of battery certificates can only increase.

This content is brought to you by Autovista24.

Tesla dominates European EV market in February

Electric vehicle (EV) registrations in Europe recorded double-digit growth in February, as Tesla dominated the market. José Pontes, data director at EV Volumes, evaluates the figures with Tom Hooker, Autovista24 journalist.

A total of 202,542 EVs took to the road in Europe during February, recording a growth of 10% year on year. This meant battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) accounted for 20% of deliveries in the overall market in February and the year-to-date.

BEVs achieved a 13% share of all passenger-car registrations during the month. The powertrain saw deliveries rise 10% year on year, despite a lack of mass-market EVs. Models that may help boost the sector, such as the Renault 5 and Citroen e-C3, are not yet available in Europe.

Additionally, many markets are still suffering from the ending of incentives. The negative incentive impact is expected to ease in the second quarter of 2024. However, significant BEV growth is not predicted until the second half of the year.

Elsewhere, PHEVs registrations increased 9% year on year. Meanwhile, hybrids (including full and mild powertrains) enjoyed a surge of 24%. The technology accounted for 29% of all new-car registrations in February, meaning almost half of the European market is now electrified.

EV and hybrid growth has come at the expense of diesel, which endured a delivery drop of 5% compared to one year ago, holding 12% of the market. This contrasts with its 50% share in 2015.

Total Tesla domination

Once again, the Tesla Model Y was the best-selling EV in Europe, thanks to its 19,946 registrations in February. The mid-size crossover is expected to post similar results in the next few quarters, although it is not predicted to significantly improve on current volumes.

The Model Y’s biggest European market was Germany (5,482 units) followed at a distance by France (1,982 units). Also achieving four-digit demand was the UK (1,759 units), Norway (1,749 units), Belgium (1,737 units), and Italy (1,252 units).

EV
Chart: Autovista24 / Source: EV-Volumes.com / Created with Datawrapper

The Tesla Model 3 secured second, meaning the carmaker took the top two positions in the February best-sellers table. The sedan reached 8,120 deliveries, as demand was boosted by its recent refresh. It is expected to limit volumes for the Model Y in future months.

However, the Model 3 could be challenged for its runner-up position if the Volkswagen (VW) ID.4 recovers and the Renault 5 has a strong production ramp-up. The sedan saw strong performances in the UK (1,410 units), France (1,216 units) and Portugal (762 units).

Positives for Peugeot

Third place went to the Peugeot e-208, which posted its best registration tally since September 2023, with 5,319 models taking to the road. The hatchback has struggled in the last few months following its refresh. Yet, strong demand is now expected after the end of the e-208’s production constraints.

The model is making a big push in its domestic market, as France (4,132 units) was responsible for over 75% of deliveries. The Netherlands (326 units) and the Italy (173 units) followed far behind.

In fourth was the Volvo XC40, reaching 5,034 registrations. The BEV version accounted for the majority of this volume, with 4,808 units. The SUV is not yet being cannibalised by its younger sibling, the EX30.

The strongest market for the model was Germany (1,367 units), while Belgium (636 units) and Sweden (561 units) also had positive results.

The MG4 finished in fifth, thanks to 4,990 deliveries. Its main markets were Germany (1,503 units), France (1,491 units) and the UK (850 units).

Valiant Volvo

The Volvo XC60 PHEV came in seventh (4,251 units), becoming the best-selling plug-in hybrid model in February.

Its sibling, the Volvo EX30, made its first top 10 appearance, reaching ninth with a record 3,675 registrations. This meant three models from the Swedish brand featured in the top 10. The compact crossover is expected to continue climbing the best-sellers chart, with multiple top-five presences likely in the next two quarters.

Elsewhere, the BMW iX1 had a strong February in 11th place, posting 3,540 deliveries. Just behind, the Porsche Cayenne PHEV achieved its best-ever result, with 3,516 registrations placing it in 12th.

This performance was helped by a refresh that improved performance, including a bigger battery. The German SUV was February’s best-selling full-size model and was the second most popular PHEV.

Finally, the VW ID.3 (2,687 units) and ID.4 (2,538 units) returned to the table in February, in 19th and 20th place respectively.

Model Y magic

Looking at the year-to-date table, the Tesla Model Y maintained its lead, thanks to 31,410 deliveries. The crossover doubled the deliveries of the Model 3 in second (14,815 units).

Europe’s top twenty EV sales by model

European EV market
Below, the Volvo XC40 jumped two positions into third with 9,585 registrations. The SUV sits over 5,000 units behind the current runner-up and more than 400 deliveries ahead of the Skoda Enyaq in fourth place (9,124 units).
Thanks to a strong February, the Peugeot e-208 rose five positions to sixth with 8,594 registrations. The hatchback sits just one unit behind the Audi Q4 e-Tron and is predicted to continue climbing up the table over the next couple of months.
Meanwhile, the Mercedes-Benz GLC PHEV moved into 11th (6,342 units). In 14th, the Volvo EX30 (5,927 units) was a new entry to the year-to-date chart and is expected to join the top 10 soon. Another new model in the table was the BMW iX1 in 15th (5,897 units).

Elsewhere, the Renault Megane EV jumped up two positions to 17th (5,439 units). Below, the Porsche Cayenne PHEV joined the table in 18th (5,281 units).

Last year’s third-place finisher, the VW ID.4, was absent from the top 20 due to a slow start to 2024. March could see the crossover return to the table, along with its sibling, the ID.3.

Tesla on top

Tesla was comfortably Europe’s best-selling EV brand in February, accounting for 11.6% of all plug-in registrations, up 2.5 percentage points from January. BMW came second, with a 10.2% market share down marginally from the previous month.

Tesla

Mercedes-Benz maintained its third position (8.7%, down from 9%), but its lead over Volvo in fourth (8.1%, up from 7.8%) dropped.

Audi lost significant ground in fifth, dropping 1.1 percentage points to a 7.2% share. This meant all of the top five EV carmakers in February were premium brands. VW, the most popular mainstream manufacturer, finished in sixth (5.1%, up from 5%).

With brands grouped together under their parent companies, the VW Group kept its commanding lead but dropped one percentage point to a 19.5% market share.

In second, Stellantis accounted for 12.2% of all EV deliveries (up from 12%), while Tesla took 11.6% of the market. The US carmaker could challenge for the runner-up spot in March.

Meanwhile, the BMW Group dropped marginal share in fourth (10.9%), as fifth-placed Geely-Volvo continued its rise (9.9%, up from 9.6%). The OEM stretched its advantage over Mercedes-Benz Group in sixth (9.2%, down from 9.5%).

This content is brought to you by Autovista24.

Launch Report: Volvo EX30 presents premium B-SUV package

Autovista24

The Volvo EX30 is a premium entry to the B-SUV segment. Autovista Group (now part of J.D. Power) experts from Austria, France, Spain and the UK, analyse the model with Autovista24 special content editor Phil Curry.

Volvo has long led the charge for sustainable mobility, through both electric drives and the recycling of plastics. It brings this vision to life in the new EX30, a B-segment SUV with a battery-electric drive.

The model allows Volvo to expand into a new marketplace, meeting a growing demand for small electric SUVs. As a premium vehicle in the segment, it allows the carmaker to appeal to buyers looking to stand out from the crowd.

In Autovista24’s latest Launch Report, the EX30’s strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats are benchmarked against its key rivals. New price points are also outlined alongside forecast residual values.

A strong design

The Volvo EX30 is the brand’s smallest SUV. As a battery-electric vehicle (BEV), it enters a market that is becoming increasingly popular and even more congested with models.

So, standing out in the crowd is extremely important, and the Volvo EX30 achieves this. The smooth grille, a feature on BEVs due to the lack of large radiators, allows the brand’s badge to sit prominently.

On each corner, the ‘Thor’s Hammer’ style headlights sweep out and down the sides. This creates a recognisable lighting profile, making the model stand out both during the day and at night.

At 4.23 metres, this is the smallest-ever SUV Volvo has produced but its side profile belies this. The SUV’s tall side panels and doors are lined down toward the front end, providing a feeling of motion even when the vehicle is stationary.

Too minimalistic inside

Inside, the Volvo EX30 sports a minimalistic environment, with few switches and buttons. Instead, most of the auxiliary items are controlled using the 12.9-inch vertically-mounted touchscreen. This also includes the speedometer and driver information.

The EX30 does not have a dedicated driver cluster behind the steering wheel, and there is no heads-up display. This means the driver needs to glance downwards to get any information, and some of this data is buried in a multi-level menu system.

This raises some safety concerns which, for a brand as safety-conscious as Volvo, is a concern. These worries are also noted and addressed by the car itself, which activates audio alerts when it detects the driver’s eyes straying from the road ahead. This forms part of new safety systems designed to monitor driver behaviours.

The seating position is comfortable, and the front of the cabin provides plenty of room. The Geely SEA platform locates batteries beneath the floor, meaning there is no rear tunnel, allowing for more comfort. Yet the position of the front seats does impact legroom for taller passengers in the rear of the car.

Materials are not only of good quality but also contain recycled materials in-line with Volvo’s sustainable attitude. The carmaker states that 17% of the plastics inside the model are recycled, the highest percentage of any Volvo model to date.

Safety remains a priority

For its price point, the EX30 has a high power output, with the single-motor version producing 272hp and a 0-100kph time of 5.6 seconds. The model also offers a decent range, with the entry-level version capable of reaching 340km on a single charge. It provides a comfortable drive, although the twin-motor variant is heavier, which increases the body roll when cornering.

Aside from the issues surrounding the vertical touchscreen display, the EX30 builds on Volvo’s reputation as a brand that cares about safety. Most common assistance systems, such as adaptive cruise control and lane-departure warnings are available as standard across all trim levels. Meanwhile, the driver monitoring system is helpful if attention is diverted away from the road, for reasons other than adjusting the wing mirrors.

Overall, the Volvo EX30 is a strong entry into the B-SUV segment, one which will appeal to premium buyers looking for a smaller BEV to get around. Some of its flaws are fixable via over-the-air updates, and as the carmaker ramps up production, it is likely to take over as the brand’s most popular model.

View the Autovista Group dashboard, which benchmarks the Volvo EX30 in Austria, France, Spain, and the UK. The interactive dashboard presents new prices, forecast residual values, and SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) analysis.

This content is brought to you by Autovista24.

Growth forecast for European EV market despite incentive impact

Even with incentive changes, Europe’s new electric vehicle (EV) market is still forecast to grow. Neil King, head of forecasting at EV Volumes (part of J.D. Power), presents the outlook.

Europe’s new light-vehicle market, made up of passenger cars and light-commercial vehicles (LCVs), grew by 13.9% year-on-year in 2023. The sector was aided by improving supply, which reduced order backlogs created by component shortages in previous years. However, order intake is currently subdued because of high interest rates and cost-of-living increases.

EV Volumes forecasts that Europe’s combined new passenger-car and LCV market will grow by 3.1% this year. This equates to 15.2 million units, far short of the 18 million light vehicles registered in 2019. The European market is unlikely to return to this level anytime soon and is not expected to surpass this figure before 2035.

Shrinking subsidies

Electric vehicle registrations in Europe increased by 17.4% year-on-year in 2023, to 3.15 million units. This allowed the powertrains to take a joint 21.4% share of all light-vehicle deliveries, up from 20.7% in the previous year.

However, the EV market faced challenges in several countries throughout 2023, which may have impacted registrations. France saw its subsidies reduced, while Germany ended incentives for business purchases in September, and abruptly in December for private buyers. Even Norway, considered the leading market in Europe for EVs, announced it was ending VAT exemption on the powertrains.

There are more challenges ahead in 2024. With no more incentives in Germany, the country’s EV market will experience its first full year without financial aid for buyers. In France, subsidies for company buyers have now concluded. Meanwhile, the number of vehicles eligible for incentives has been cut, with the French government removing models exported into Europe.

Furthermore, most legacy vehicle manufacturers can stay safely below their required CO2 limits without selling more EVs. This means their attention can return to more profitable internal-combustion engine (ICE) vehicles.

EV growth expected

More positively, both Italy and Spain are considering new incentive schemes for 2024, to help boost uptake in their markets. Carmakers are also rolling out more affordable battery-electric vehicles (BEVs), one example being the new Citroen e-C3. Europe will also benefit from BYD’s regional expansion plans. Other Chinese OEMs will follow suit as they look beyond their domestic market.

For 2024, EV Volumes expects European EV deliveries to grow by 18% year on year. This equates to 3.7 million new models. This is despite the anticipated lacklustre growth of the wider light-vehicle market. EVs will account for around a quarter of all light-vehicle sales.

The growth will be predominantly driven by BEVs, volumes of which are forecast to grow by 23.5% this year. The all-electric technology will dominate the EV market, accounting for 72% of registrations, with plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) making up the remaining 28%.

PHEVs are also forecast to improve in 2024, with 5.9% growth. The technology offers a stepping-stone between ICE and BEV technologies, something that may be attractive to buyers. In addition, the removal of incentives for all-electric models in Germany means they have lost their price advantage over PHEVs. This could benefit the plug-in hybrid powertrain in the coming months.

Market momentum slows

Compared to the previous EV Volumes forecast, the 2024 EV volume and share expectations for Europe have been slightly reduced. Although the outlook for total European light-vehicle deliveries has increased, the net effect is not positive enough to balance out the negative influences.

Changing incentives, together with countries pushing back on EU plans for zero-emission-only new-vehicle sales from 2035, has affected the outlook. The forecast now foresees slightly lower EV shares moving forward.

The European market share of BEVs and PHEVs combined is forecast to reach 29.4%, in 2025, down from the previous forecast of 31.1%. EVs will then take a 67.3% share in 2030 (was 68.6%), and a 94.5% share in 2035 (was 94.9%).

The forecast for 2035 includes some tolerance for timing interpretations of the zero-emission-only new-vehicle sales bans. It also allows for exemptions for ICE vehicles that may be deemed unsuitable for full electrification.

LCVs lag behind

The light-commercial vehicle market is still seeing slower EV uptake than the passenger-car sector. However, the 49% growth for LCV EVs in 2023 is encouraging, especially compared to the 16% growth for passenger cars.

High prices compared to diesel models are still restraining this uptake. Yet there are key new BEV versions of popular models, such as the Ford Transit, Renault Trafic, and VW Transporter, that will help demand. Additionally, upgraded versions of the small, medium, and large electric vans offered by Stellantis brands will drive the market forward.

EV Volumes now forecasts that the EV share of LCVs will climb from 7.5% in 2023, which was already up from 5.8% in 2022, to a market hold of 11.1% in 2024. This will then improve to 16.1% in 2025 and 58.6% in 2030.

Long term, the ban on sales of new petrol and diesel vehicles for 2035 will further accelerate the transition to all-electric LCVs.

The forecast assumes that all Western and Central European markets will follow the directive, allowing for some exemptions and grace periods. Therefore, the zero-emission vehicle market does not reach 100% coverage in 2035 but is forecast to achieve a 94.1% share, compared to 94.6% for passenger cars.

The role of e-fuels and other CO2-neutral ICE fuels is still uncertain, but will likely be limited to niche concepts. EV Volumes also expects the deployment of hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles (FCEVs) to be limited in the LCV market, with their share peaking at just 0.03%.

BYD took control of the 2023 Chinese EV market

Electric vehicles (EVs) made up 37% of China’s new-car market in 2023, with BYD and Tesla leading the way. José Pontes, data director at EV-volumes.com, unpacks the results.

The electrification of China’s new-car market has picked up in recent years. Combined registrations of battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), meant the EV market represented 6.3% of deliveries at the end of 2020. BEVs alone accounted for 5.1% of the overall figures.

In 2021 this market share grew to 15% for EVs overall and 12% for BEVs specifically. Across 2022, plug-in models accounted for 30% of deliveries in the country, with all-electric vehicles taking a 22% share. By the end of 2023, the EV share had climbed to 37%, with BEVs generating 25% of overall registrations.

So, while electrification in China has improved, the rate of adoption has slowed over the course of the last three years. However, the world’s largest automotive market can still be expected to reach an EV share of 50% by 2026. By this point, BEVs will make up over a third of the new-car market.

BYD Song tops the chart

The BYD Song was the best-selling EV in China last year, repeating its 2022 success. The model finished 2023 more than 100,000 units ahead of the second-place Tesla Model Y. The US crossover surpassed the BYD Qin Plus at the very end of last year.

However, BYD placed five models within the top six positions of the 2023 chart, while also leading every size category.

The BYD Seagull managed to overtake the Wuling Mini EV in the A-segment. The carmaker’s Dolphin model led the B-segment and its Yuan Plus claimed the C-segment. Lastly, the Song secured the D-segment, and the Han took the E-segment. BYD can be expected to top a lot of categories again this year, however, it will face more competition.

The Li Auto L7 and Aito M7 will likely overtake the BYD Han in the E-segment. In the D-segment, the Tesla Model Y will look to state its claim to the title, as BYD’s models compete against each other in the popular category.

This story is likely to be repeated in the C-segment, with the GAC Aion Y competing with the BYD Yuan (Plus and Up). In the B-segment, the Wuling Bingo could become a fiercer contender for the title.

Comparing the 2023 table with the previous year, the Wuling Mini EV dropped five places to seventh due to increasing competition. The ageing BYD Tang also dropped from eighth in 2022 to 13th.

Noticeably, several small EVs were pushed out of the table this year, such as the Changan Benni EV, the Chery eQ1, and QQ Ice Cream. While Changan could rely on the 14th-place Lumin, Chery lost its two spots without any replacements.

Third title for BYD brand

BYD claimed its third brand title in a row last year, with a 33.8% market share. Since it started making plug-in models in 2008, the carmaker has always made it to one of the two top spots in China’s brand table. This highlights its importance to the electrification of the market.

Meanwhile, Tesla took second place in 2023 with a 7.5% share. This marks a step up for the company following three years of third-place finishes.

Thanks to the success of its Aion S and Y models, GAC Aion secured a top-three spot for the first time last year, coming in third with a 6% market share. This is a positive result for the brand after coming fourth in 2022 thanks to a 4.6% share.

Despite the success of its Wuling Bingo, SGMW experienced a significant loss of volume in 2023, as the Wuling Mini EV dropped by about 200,000 units. The brand ended the year with a 5.8% share, contrasting with the 8% it had in 2022.

Li Auto came fifth with a 4.7% share, replacing Changan with 4.3%. However, the latter still managed to finish in sixth while increasing its market share from 3% in 2022. Geely once again took seventh, but made up 4.1% of the market, up from 3.7% at the end of 2022.

Demand set to drop?

With brands organised under automotive groups, BYD was once again the big winner in China with a market share of 35.5% in 2023. Having taken last year’s title, this is likely to be a repeating trend in the coming years.

However, having also claimed first place in the wider overall market, the OEM is starting to near its demand ceiling, leaving little room for growth in China.

In second, SAIC claimed a 7.5% share. The carmaker claimed this spot in the last month of 2023, managing to push ahead of Tesla by just 518 units. In fourth, Geely–Volvo appears set to keep growing. The company ended 2023 with a market share of 7.1%, a significant increase on 5.7% in 2022.

GAC secured fifth, progressing from a 4.9% share in 2022 to 6.5% last year. Changan climbed up a position from 2022, as its market share grew from 4% to 4.8% last year.

Record end to a record year

EVs finished 2023 with another record month. Registrations of plug-in models grew 46% year on year, reaching a record 980,737 units. BEVs (up 31%) saw slower growth than PHEVs in the month (up 81%).

Yet all-electric models accounted for 63% of the EV market in December, but this was below 2023’s BEV 66% average. This was far below the 74% recorded at the end of 2022.

The up-swing in PHEV popularity can be explained by the increasing availability of range-extended models in China. Most of these models feature a battery with around a 40kWh capacity and fast-charging capabilities.

BYD Song dominates in December

The BYD Song continued its run of record-breaking success in December. Out of its 72,182 total deliveries, its BEV version reached a new best of 14,011 units. This highlights how production is leaning further towards the all-electric powertrain.

This could mark the current generation’s peak. The Song was the best-selling model in December’s overall new-car market in China, but there will be increasing competition moving forward. A large portion of this will come from inside BYD, in the shape of the new Song L and the Sea Lion.

In second place, the Tesla Model Y achieved 60,055 registrations in December, a new record. This is impressive considering the increasing amount of competition in the market, including internally from the refreshed Model 3.

As the standard BYD Song gets cannibalised by its siblings, Tesla Model Y can be expected to regularly feature in first this year, even if its sales do not grow significantly.

The BYD Qin Plus ended December in third with 41,142 deliveries. The midsize model is likely to keep competing for a place in the top five throughout 2024, at least until the new Qin L arrives sometime in the near future.

Thanks to constant updates, the Qin Plus is leading the midsize-sedan category, well ahead of the GAC Aion S and the Tesla Model 3.

With 41,012 registrations, the BYD Seagull came fourth. However, this was not a new best for the model, ending a record-breaking streak and suggesting a slowing of deliveries. With exports expected to start soon, the city-car could see greater success in overseas markets where demand for small and affordable BEVs is high.

The BYD Yuan Plus came fifth in December with 30,799 registrations. While the model did well across 2023, a top-five finish might be difficult to replicate this year. Some of its volume will likely be consumed by the cheaper Yuan Up, due to land in the first half of 2024. However, export markets are now the target for the Yuan Plus, especially in Europe and Southeast Asia.

Li Auto’s record results

Having created a niche within the Chinese market, the Wuling Bingo came sixth in December and could enter the top five soon. The eighth-place Aito M7 (25,545 units) also deserves a mention, with the model continuing to accelerate production.

Highlighting a positive month for Wuling HongGuang, its Mini EV ended the month in ninth with 25,015 registrations, a year best.

All three of Li Auto’s models saw record numbers in December. In 11th, the L7 recorded 20,428 registrations, while the L8 marked 15,013 units. Just below, the flagship L9 posted 14,913 deliveries. This means the carmaker hit over 50,000 units in the month while only being present in the full-size segment.

Elsewhere, the Volkswagen (VW) ID.3 kept rising, reaching a best-ever 13,201 sales. This allowed it to reach 17th place.

Outside the top 20

The refreshed Buick Velite 6, a compact estate car, scored a record 8,614 deliveries in December. Meanwhile, the VW ID.4 registered a year-best result of 8,130 units. Add this to the ID.3’s record performance and the German carmaker seems to be enjoying some success in its largest market.

Geely celebrated the Lynk & Co 08 crossing the 10,000-unit delivery mark for the first time. The model passed this milestone after only four months on the market.

Changan posted good results across its line-up. This included 12,480 registrations for the Lumin and 6,978 units of the SL03. However, the highlight was the S7, which recorded 11,360 deliveries. This included 3,250 BEV registrations, a new record for the model.

BYD hailed the first full sales month of its new upmarket brands, Fangchengbao and Yangwang. Their respective first models, the Bao 5 and the U8, hit 4,388 and 1,593 units each. These new brands can be expected to improve the OEM’s profit margins, which could act as a reserve in the country’s price wars.

While SAIC enjoyed good results with the Wuling Bingo and the Mini EV, the brand’s new model, the Starlight, was a particular cause for celebration. The model reached 11,453 units in December, its third month on the market.

Elsewhere in the SAIC stable, the Roewe D7 was also on the rise, taking 7,285 registrations. Meanwhile, the IM LS6 SUV hit 9,878 deliveries in only its fourth month on the market. However, it seems the model’s demand ceiling has already been hit.