Article Type: News

Can battery health certificates answer big used-EV questions?

Battery certificates and state of health (SOH) checks are at the forefront of a growing used electric vehicle (EV) market. How will they help answer the big used-EV questions from retailers and buyers? Tom Hooker, Autovista24 journalist, investigates the subject.

For the modern used-car buyer, it has become commonplace to access a plethora of information about any model online. This research can be done through portals or directly from retailers. Yet, the sector is in the midst of a big shift.

As battery-electric vehicle (BEV) and plug-in hybrid (PHEV) registrations increase across new-car markets, the supply of used EVs rises. This presents a new challenge for retailers. They need to convince consumers to buy EVs, while also learning how to accurately price them and make profits.

Battery SOH checks could be a solution to this challenge. They can provide customers with peace of mind while revealing a car’s history, value, and selling potential to retailers.

‘EVs are not degrading the same way as petrol or diesel vehicles. Mileage is not sufficient to have a clear view of the current health of an EV. That means for the exact same mileage, you can buy two EVs with a very different fate,’ BIB batteries CEO Pierre-Amans Lapeyre told Autovista24.

‘Knowing the SOH, you can have the history, the current value and the future. It gives you what should be the real residual value of the vehicle. I would much rather have the SOH of an EV than know its mileage, because from what we have seen on the market, two vehicles with the exact same SOH could have a completely different mileage,’ he added.

Fostering used-EV uncertainty

‘Nowadays, you can advertise a car with photographs, with descriptions, and with diagnostics. Everybody can do that. So, I think as an industry we have solved the problem fairly well with the technology available,’ outlined Roland Gagel, CARA board member at the Used Vehicle Retail Summit.

Roland Gagel, CARA board member

‘We see that this market is very rational, buyers are looking for transparent offers and want to see pictures and descriptions,’ he added. Gagel then explained that BEVs are a different prospect, with the most important aspect of the car being the battery.

He highlighted that current advertisements of used EVs are not clear enough and can foster uncertainty among potential buyers. Late entrants to the EV space could be particularly impacted.

Convincing late adopters

Gagel explained that when buying or selling a three-year-old petrol or diesel car at 70,000km, you can assume it has a well-maintained engine. This means you can easily drive the car for ten more years.

However, the buyer confidence around longevity is very different for electric devices. Mobile phones are one such example. ‘We are not talking about the early adopters, the people who already wanted to have an EV five years ago,’ said Gagel.

‘We are talking about the people who now start to think about it and will maybe finally be convinced. They know that after four or five years, their mobile phone is dead, and the battery is not okay. So, what does that mean for my three or four-year-old EV?

‘I am maybe going to want to resell it after eight or nine years and want to buy another one. So, we have this problem, which is very often the range, because in the end, that is what the driver feels.’

There are tools available to help drivers understand more about the lifespan and health of their EV. Most models now show average energy consumption on their infotainment screen. This can be divided by the total energy storage of the battery, which provides the real, approximate range of the vehicle.

So, customers can be provided with a wealth of information on the condition of a used EV. However, how this information is used and shared by the retailer makes all the difference.

Limited certificate usage

Gagel showed an example of an online used-car portal from a remarketing company. Here, the price of a BEV was marked down by €2,000 without any information on why the model’s price had been reduced.

Additionally, Gagel searched the mobile.de website for a popular German BEV. With certain parameters selected, he got 160 results. Out of this, 50 had a battery SOH certificate. However, in most cases, the actual SOH value could not be found in the description.

‘Imagine you sell a car without mileage, and the buyer calls the dealer to know the mileage. What do you do with such an advertiser? Just skip it and go to the next,’ he commented.

Gagel then went on to show the carmaker’s own website for its used cars. He selected two of their BEV models, which gave him 2,600 search results. However, only 40 of these models had a battery certificate shown on the portal. Lapeyre also noted the lack of SOH certificates on online adverts.

‘There are a lot of studies about the fear of individuals buying EVs, they do not trust the lifespan of the battery. I would say around 50% of dealers today put SOH on their vehicle adverts. You will not sell your EV if you do not have this information,’ he stated.

Regulatory impacts

The introduction of new regulations could also help improve the clarity between used EV sellers and potential customers. SOH checks would be a pivotal technology in achieving this clarity.

For example, the upcoming Euro 7 regulations state that passenger cars must retain at least 80% of their original battery capacity after 5 years or 100,000 km, whichever comes first. Then, after 8 years or 160,000 km, the battery capacity must be at least 72%.

Furthermore, the regulation states that EVs must have SOH monitors onboard. Data from these monitors must be displayed to users, retrievable from diagnostics, and included in the vehicle’s Environmental Vehicle Passport.

‘The regulation that comes with Euro 7 and the battery passport will foster the transparency of the SOH. The regulation will start in 2027, so in the used-car sector, you will see it from 2028 with the first short-term rentals,’ noted Gagel.

‘But I think the real effect will come in 2029 and 2030. So, we have five years to go to sell used cars without the battery pass and Euro 7,’ he added.

Increasing consumer transparency

‘There is an unsourced fear about the end of warranty for EVs. When they end, people are freaked out, and it is not rational,’ said Lapeyre.

According to a 2024 McKinsey & Company survey, 31% percent of prospective EV buyers say they are likely or very likely to consider a used EV for their next vehicle purchase. For those EV sceptics, 49% were concerned about unclear battery degradation.

So, the industry cannot wait another five years to start improving the used EV sales experience and calming EV concerns.

‘The key point for us is how to get this into a B2C sale and how to show the positive part of the batteries. How do we convey this message? How can we train the salespeople to sell this off to the consumer? That will be very important for the industry,’ said Gagel.

‘On the dealership side, I think they need to provide their clients with battery certificates. They need to train their salespeople so that they can show and express the value of an EV to their clients,’ commented Lapeyre.

‘What can you do as an industry? For me, it is very clear, used-car offers need to become more transparent. They are not transparent today,’ said Gagel.

‘In the end, if the buyers do not have clear information about the battery, they will assume there is a problem. The clearer we are and the more we are pushing in the direction of transparency, the more likely it will be that BEVs will recover from their residual values.

‘It is not just good to measure the vehicle, but we have to make sure it gets into the vehicle description, so the customer knows we have good cars to sell,’ concluded Gagel.

Can European car sales survive economic and political uncertainty?

Have forecasts for European light-vehicle sales retained their marginal growth amid economic and political uncertainty? Neil King, head of forecasting at EV Volumes, reviews the latest data with Autovista24 journalist Tom Hooker.

EV Volumes forecasts that Western and Central European light-vehicle sales, made up of passenger cars and light-commercial vehicles (LCVs), will decline by 0.3% year-on-year in 2025.

This is a change from the March 2025 outlook, which projected a 0.7% growth. It is also below the 1.7% increase recorded in 2024, and significantly behind the 14% registrations growth in 2023.

A total of 14.91 million new light vehicles are expected to hit the road this year, a drop of around 148,800 units from the March forecast. Moreover, this figure is still well below the 18.04 million light vehicles registered in 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic and supply-chain crisis.

EV Volumes does not expect the European market to return to that volume level within the current forecast period, which stretches to 2040. A 1.9% growth in European light-vehicle sales is projected in 2026, down from the March projection of a 2.1% increase. This improvement depends on a complex mix of regulatory and economic factors.

Current European uncertainty

There is uncertainty surrounding the impact of changing goods tariffs, developments relating to the war in Ukraine, and increasing tensions in the Middle East. Furthermore, EV Volumes assumes that a rising risk of rising inflation, oil prices, and energy costs will lead to weaker private consumption across the region.

Additionally, the OECD’s June 2025 economic outlook predicts that GDP in the Euro area will grow by only 1% in 2025. Due to weaker goods exports to the US and a struggling services sector, registrations of LCVs are already being affected by trade frictions and tariffs. Passenger car sales are expected to follow suit.

Meeting the lower CO2 emissions targets and circularity requirements mandated by the European Commission will also necessitate a major increase in electric vehicle (EV) sales.

This could trigger a price war, supported by lower lithium costs. Carmakers may also restrict the supply of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles to avoid costly emissions fines.

Ultimately, the outcome will depend on how OEMs balance short-term profit with long-term compliance and market shifts. Considering these developments, has the European EV outlook changed?

European EV sales growth

European EV sales of light vehicles are forecasted to grow by 23.1% year-on-year in 2025 to 3.77 million units. This is up from the 3.53 million sales and 15.1% volume increase projected in March. It also marks a turnaround from the market’s 2.4% decline in 2024.

EVs are expected to represent 25.3% of total European light-vehicle sales this year, a positive revision from the 23.4% share forecast in March. Furthermore, it is a notable improvement from the 20.5% EV market hold in 2024 and the 21.3% share in 2023.

Driven by new model launches, lower prices, and emissions targets, EV Volumes forecasts that EVs will reach a 29.2% share of European light-vehicle sales in 2026. This is significantly higher than the 26.4% market hold predicted in March.

In 2027, the EV share is expected to rise to 35.4%. Again, this is up from the previous forecast’s projected share of 33.3%.

Battery-electric vehicle (BEV) volumes are forecast to grow by 20.9% year-on-year in 2025, accounting for 67.4% of the 2025 EV mix. Meanwhile, plug-in hybrid vehicle (PHEV) sales are expected to increase by 27.8%.

Looking further forward, EVs are expected to capture 62.9% of European light-vehicle sales in 2030, up from the March forecast of a 60.5% share. This market hold is predicted to increase to 93.5% in 2035, up from 93.1% in the previous outlook. In 2040, EVs are projected to account for 99.4% of the total European market.

The forecast for 2035 and beyond includes some tolerance for timing interpretations of the ICE new-car sales ban and allows for exemptions for vehicles that may be deemed unsuitable for full electrification.

Regulations affecting European EVs

In March 2025, the European Commission unveiled the Industrial Action Plan for the European Automotive Sector. It proposed measures to support the industry’s competitiveness and transition to zero-emission mobility.

One of these was the relaxation of the 2025 CO2 emissions targets for cars and vans, which was officially approved in May 2025. More specifically, the compliance period has been extended from one to three years, providing manufacturers with greater flexibility to avoid fines.

However, some measures were not included in the Action Plan, such as the discussion surrounding the potential exclusion of PHEVs from the 2035 new-car ICE ban.

Consequently, EV Volumes’ forecast for BEV adoption anticipates moderate share growth in 2025 and 2026.

Then, a more significant increase is expected in 2027, as manufacturers strive to meet the average CO2 emissions targets of 93.6 g/km for cars and 153.9 g/km for LCVs over the three-year period.

To meet these targets, EV Volumes calculated that the BEV share of EU light vehicles needs to average at least 20% between 2025 and 2027. This means a 20.5% share is required for passenger cars and an 18% market hold is needed for LCVs.

Yet OEMs are not forecast to achieve this 20% average for all light vehicles by 2027 without additional EU-wide stimulus. This is mainly due to slower LCV electrification. Instead, EV Volumes anticipates that the targets will be met over the 2025 to 2028 period.

This forecast could be revised if further exemptions and lower targets are put in place. New EU-wide or national incentives could also alter EV share projections.

Incentives altering European projections?

An example of these incentives can be found in Italy, where €597 million in funding for a scrappage scheme has been announced, as reported by Il Sore 24 Ore.

Meanwhile, Germany is considering the reintroduction of BEV incentives in 2025, after subsidies stopped at the end of 2023. However, the implementation of new funding may be delayed due to economic conditions.

Furthermore, more affordable BEVs are expected to enter Europe. Leading Chinese OEMs like BYD are also planning to expand in the region.

On the other hand, PHEV registrations are exceeding expectations. This was the major factor in June’s upward revision for 2025 EV sales. The additional volume is driven by the eased CO2 targets, expanded PHEV offerings from both European and Chinese players, and delayed launches of low-cost BEVs.

Additionally, the UK’s ban on new petrol and diesel models from 2030 still allows all hybrid types to be sold until 2035.

The country’s government has also announced the return of EV incentives from 16 July. The scheme will reduce the cost of some new EVs by up to £3,750 under grants. This signals a change in policy for the UK and will impact future forecasts.

Varied European country outlooks

The current EV Volumes outlook sees the UK registering 702,911 EVs in 2025, a sharp increase of just over 131,000 units compared to its 2024 total. The powertrain grouping is expected to take a 39.6% market share in 2025, up from 32.5% in the previous year.

Italy will hope its new incentives can help to boost EV adoption, which has been sluggish compared to other major light-vehicle markets. EVs are forecast to represent 11.6% of the market in 2025, up from 8.7% in 2024. Sales are projected to increase by just over 44,000 units to 166,104 registrations.

An effective implementation of subsidies can be seen in Spain, which has helped BEV and PHEV volumes to soar. The reintroduction of the incentive scheme includes grants, tax breaks, and support for charging.

In 2025, the country is projected to see a year-on-year gain of over 80,000 units to 201,801 EV registrations. The EV share is expected to rise from 13.6% in 2024 to 21.9% this year.

Even without incentives, EV sales in Germany are on track to bounce back to 2022 levels. The powertrain grouping is forecast to record 829,398 sales in 2025, an increase of over 246,000 units compared to last year. EVs are expected to account for 30.2% of the total light-vehicle market, up from 21.4%.

On the other hand, France is currently suffering a decline in EV volumes. This is reflected in the current outlook, which sees it dropping nearly 5,600 sales year on year to 456,953 units. However, this is largely due to the wider light-vehicle market declining as the EV share is predicted to grow to 32.3% from 31.4% in 2024.

LCV EV uptake lags

LCVs still lag in EV uptake. A registrations growth of 43.7% growth in 2023 was promising, especially compared to a 16.2% improvement for passenger cars. However, both the volume and share of electric LCVs declined more than passenger cars in 2024.

High costs relative to diesel models and limited driving range hindered adoption. Nonetheless, new models, such as the Ford Transit, Renault Trafic, VW Transporter and updated Stellantis electric vans, are expected to drive demand.

EV Volumes forecasts that the EV share of LCVs will rise from 5.4% in 2024 to 10% in 2025. Its market hold is projected to increase to 13.5% in 2026 and reach 52.1% by 2030.

While the new-car ICE ban will accelerate the shift to electric, EV Volumes anticipates a 92.3% EV share for LCVs in 2035, compared to 93.7% for passenger cars. This is expected to rise to 99.1% in 2040.

The role of e-fuels and other CO2-neutral ICE technologies is expected to remain limited, depending largely on national tax policies. EV Volumes also expects the deployment of hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles to be limited in light commercial vehicles, with their share peaking at just 0.01%.

The regions and technology pushing public EV charging forward

The number of public electric vehicle (EV) charging points continues to grow, but which region and technology leads the way? Using the latest data from EV Volumes, Autovista24 editor Tom Geggus assesses the situation.

Charging infrastructure continues to grow across the world as EV adoption drives demand. But what is the best way to measure the volume of plug-in points currently available to the public?

Across 75 markets, EV Volumes tracks the number of locations where a certain connector type can be found. This surpasses a simple tally of station numbers, instead accounting for charger variety.

A station with two combined charging system (CCS) points counts as one location. Meanwhile, a charger offering one CCS and one CHAdeMO connection counts as two locations.

According to this classification, 3.85 million EV charging points were tallied by May 2025. This equated to an increase of 34.8% compared with the same point last year. However, this is slower than the 42.6% growth in May 2024 and far below the 81.8% recorded 12 months before that. There was an increase of 34.7% at the same point in 2022, but this was down from the 53.2% jump in May 2021.

Speedier charging?

While the rollout of public EV infrastructure might have slowed, not all technologies have developed at the same rate. Dividing charging speeds into three categories reveals some emerging trends.

some emerging trends.

The normal speed category includes type 1, 2 and 3 points, Tesla high-power wall connectors, and Chinese GB/T AC chargers. The power output in this category extends up to 24kW.

This grouping saw year-on-year growth of 71.8% in May 2023 and 58.3% in the same month last year. By May 2025, nearly 2.15 million normal-speed charging points were recorded across the 75 observed markets. This meant slower year-on-year growth of 23.4%.

The fast-charging category has followed a similar path. This grouping is made up of 22-60kW GB/T DC Chinese connectors as well as 50-350kW CHAdeMO and CCS plugs. By May this year, 1.69 million fast-charging points were tallied, up by 53% compared with the same point 12 months ago. This followed growth of 45.4% in May 2024 and 101.1% a year prior.

The ultra-fast category covers 250kW Tesla Superchargers and 350kW CCS plugs. The number of these points increased by 11.8% to 9,371 by May 2025. This grouping saw year-on-year growth of 27.1% by the same point in 2024 and 47.7% in May 2023.

Fast charging accelerates

While the ultrafast category has grown more slowly, EVs capable of charging at this speed remain in the minority. Additionally, these are often more premium models, outside of the mass market.

Meanwhile, the list of EVs capable of accessing fast charging infrastructure is far more expansive. Carmakers want to address concerns of longer plug-in times, introducing speedier charging capabilities more broadly as the technology advances.

This helps account for the fast-charging category seeing nearly double the growth of the normal grouping in May 2025. The technology also made up 44% of recorded public charging infrastructure, up by 5.3 percentage points (pp) from May 2024.

Most of this gain was at the expense of the normal speed grouping, which saw its share fall to 55.8%. At the same point last year, the technology made up 61% of all recorded plug-in points. This development follows the technological progression of EVs as they achieve faster charging speeds.

Meanwhile, the ultra-fast category shrank marginally by 0.1pp to 0.2%. This is likely due to the technology’s greater exclusivity, higher costs and greater demands on the grid. But have these charging speed trends been consistent across all regions?

Europe’s charging infrastructure

Across Europe, including the EU, EFTA and the UK, EV Volumes counted 442,804 public charging points. This equated to an increase of 14.4% compared with May 2024.

The region’s rate of growth does appear to have slowed since May 2023, when the tally jumped by 42.3% year on year. This was followed by a 29.1% increase at the same point in 2024.

With a 74.7% share, the majority of infrastructure in the region belonged in the normal speed category. However, the rate at which this category is expanding slowed to 11.7% year on year. This followed growth of 27.9% in May 2024 and 39% in the same month in 2023.

Both the fast and ultra-fast infrastructure groupings were subject to this trend as well. The fast category saw growth slow from 55% in May 2023 to 33.1% 12 months later, then 23.1% this year. This meant the technology took a 24.7% share, while ultra-fast remained stable at 0.6% over the last three years.

The Netherlands boosts numbers

While Europe has seen an increasing amount of public charging infrastructure installed, the spread was far from even. The Netherlands led the way, with 117,413 points recorded by May 2025.

This is not surprising given the country’s booming EV market. In the first five months of the year, the country recorded 80,373 new EV registrations, according to data from ACEA. This meant plug-in powertrains made up 54.1% of all new-car deliveries in the Netherlands from January to May.

Germany had the second-largest number of EV charging points, reaching a tally of 54,681. However, at 15,421 points, Germany had three times the number of fast chargers as the Netherlands at 4,429. In third, the UK reached 50,481 public chargers in total, with 18,587 fast points making up approximately a third of its overall offering.

At the other end of the spectrum, Malta had 75 normal speed chargers available. However, its smaller EV market has already experienced a drop in the first five months of the year. 835 plug-in vehicles were registered, down by 34.9%.

The EU is expected to see public EV charging infrastructure grow thanks to the Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Regulation. This year, charging stations outputting between 22kW and 150kW must be set up every 60km along the TEN-T road network.

There are also local requirements. In Germany, the Masterplan Ladeinfrastruktur, sets out a strategy to reach 1 million public charging points by 2030. Elsewhere, France aims to roll out 400,000 public charging points by 2030.

Way out in front

So, how does Europe compare with other major EV markets? According to EV Volumes, China’s new plug-in vehicle market grew by 42.2% year on year between January and May. This equated to the sale of 4.76 million units, the largest amount globally.

Accordingly, the number of public charging infrastructure far exceeded any other market. By May this year, just under 3.13 million points were available, up by 40.2% year on year. The normal category took a 51.6% share of this total, while 48.3% were fast. Ultra-fast, on the other hand, made up only 0.1% of public charging infrastructure.

As noted by the International Energy Agency’s (IEA’s) Global EV Outlook, there are important regional differences worthy of note. EV drivers in China’s densely populated urban areas rely on public infrastructure. Meanwhile, Europe has a far greater number of private chargers at home.

Uncertainty in the US

Compared with the relatively consistent expansion of charging points in China, the US has seen varied growth. The country recorded 81,693 connectors by May this year, marking a growth of 13.5%.

Normal speed chargers made up the majority of points, accounting for 77.7%, followed by fast points at 17.8%. However, where the US stood out was the far larger number of ultra-fast chargers, which made up 4.5% of plug-in points.

The National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure (NEVI) programme put aside $5 billion (€4.2 billion) to fund fast charging along corridors. However, the IEA highlights that by the end of last year, only $30 million had been spent on points which are now in operation.

Furthermore, these funds were frozen in January 2025 so the new administration could carry out a review. This put the further rollout of public EV charging infrastructure in the US into a far more precarious position.

With so many different approaches across the world, the rollout of public EV charging infrastructure will continue to be uneven.

European EV registrations rise as new model records first win

Battery-electric (BEV) and plug-in hybrid (PHEV) registrations rose across Europe in April, but which newcomer topped the BEV charts for the first time? Autovista24 journalist Tom Hooker breaks down the latest EV Volumes data.

A total of 186,827 BEVs were handed over to customers in Europe during April, up 27.7% year on year. This equated to a gain of 40,506 units. The result also continues the technology’s monthly double-digit growth streak between January and April 2025.

Meanwhile, PHEV volumes increased by 30.6% in the month, reaching 98,330 deliveries. This was the powertrain’s biggest improvement in the first four months of the year.

Registrations of all-electric vehicles totalled 765,820 units over the first third of the year. This resulted in a 27.9% growth compared to the same period in 2024. PHEVs increased deliveries by 11.5% from January to April, with 366,838 units.

Germany once again recorded the highest BEV volumes in Europe during the month. The country accounted for 24.3% of the technology’s total registrations, continuing a rebound from a difficult 2024.

France followed with a 14.3% share, then came the UK which represented 13.2% of the market. Belgium and Norway were the fourth and fifth, recording a 6.7% and 5.9% share respectively.

Germany also led the PHEV market, capturing 24.7% of the technology’s total. The UK landed second with a 14.2% share, followed by France which represented 9.6% of deliveries. Spain ended up fourth with a 9.4% share, as Italy made up 8% of volumes.

New model leads BEV registrations

The Skoda Elroq was the best-selling BEV in Europe in April, with 7,663 registrations. This was the compact SUV’s highest delivery total in only its sixth month on the market. The Elroq accounted for 4.1% of overall sales. Before April, the model had not appeared in the BEV top 10. It sat 17th in the cumulative chart between January and April.

The Volkswagen (VW) ID.3 took second place with 6,938 deliveries, up 33.4% on the same month last year. This marked its strongest monthly result since June 2024 and its highest ranking in the best-sellers table in the first four months of the year. The hatchback claimed a 3.7% market share, up 0.1 percentage points (pp) compared to April 2024.

The combined total of the Renault 5 and Alpine A290 followed, missing out on second place by just 138 units. The pair delivered 6,800 models to European customers, equating to a 3.6% share. It also marked the BEVs’ best finishing position since February.

Just 22 units behind was the VW ID.7 with 6,778 deliveries. This meant volumes of the saloon increased by 633.5% compared to April 2024. It represented 3.6% of the BEV market, up from 0.6%.

Its sibling, the VW ID.4, finished fifth. Its 6,323-unit total was a 4.7% improvement on 12 months prior. Yet, due to increased competition, its market share fell from 4.1% to 3.4%.

Skoda Enyaq struggles

The Skoda Enyaq secured sixth, continuing the dominance of VW Group in April’s BEV chart. The SUV increased registrations by 29% in April to 5,633 units. However, this was the first time it placed outside the top five in the first four months of the year. Its sales may have been impacted by the success of the Skoda Elroq. The Enyaq made up 3% of overall deliveries, stable from April 2024.

The Kia EV3 took seventh, posting 5,574 registrations in its seventh month on the market. This figure translated into a 3% share. The BMW iX1 followed in eighth, with its first appearance in the top 10 this year. It recorded 5,297 deliveries, up 17.6% year on year. The SUV represented 2.8% of the BEV market, down 0.3pp.

Ninth place went to the Tesla Model Y, with 4,805 units. Compared to April 2024, when it led the best-sellers table, this proved a notable slump of 49.9%. It also marked the crossover’s lowest delivery total since October 2022. This caused the Model Y’s market share to drop from 6.6% to 2.6%.

In 10th was the Audi Q4 e-tron, recording 4,595 registrations. This was the SUV’s lowest finishing position in the 2025 results, as its volumes fell by 22.3% year on year. In turn, its market share declined by 1.5pp to 2.5%. This meant that six VW Group models were featured in the BEV best-sellers table for April.

Tesla still tops BEVs

Despite its poor April performance, the Tesla Model Y continued to lead Europe’s BEV market in the cumulative table. Between January and April, it recorded 35,192 registrations giving it a 4.6% market share.

There was a change for position in second, as the VW ID.4 moved ahead of the Tesla Model 3. This was largely due to the Model 3’s 24th-place finish in April. The ID.4 took a 3.5% market share thanks to 26,798 deliveries, while the Model 3 recorded 26,028 registrations and a 3.4% share.

The Skoda Enyaq ranked fourth with 25,540 units, just 11 ahead of the VW ID.7, which saw a boost from strong April sales. Another 109 units behind was the combined total of the Renault 5 and Alpine A290. These models accounted for 3.3% of the BEV market.

In seventh was the ID.3, displacing the Kia EV3. The hatchback posted 24,301 registrations and a 3.2% share. Meanwhile, the EV3 recorded a 3.1% share with 24,007 deliveries.

Then came the Audi Q4-tron with 21,715 registrations, accounting for 2.8% of the overall market. The BMW iX1 completed the top 10, posting 19,676 deliveries and a 2.6% share.

Volvo XC60 recovers

The Volvo XC60 was the most popular PHEV in Europe in April, thanks to 5,093 registrations. However, this signalled a decline of 2% compared to 12 months prior. Its share fell from 6.9% to 5.2%, as competition in the sector intensified.

BYD’s Seal U secured second place with 4,783 units, accounting for 4.9% of total volume. Close behind, the VW Tiguan posted 4,753 deliveries, an impressive 623.4% increase on the same month last year. The SUV captured a 4.8% market share, up 3.9pp.

The BMW X1 followed in fourth, with 3,029 registrations. This was its best result so far in 2025, yet the performance was down 6.7% on April 2024. The SUV captured 3.1% of PHEV volumes, down from 4.3%.

After leading the market in March, the Ford Kuga placed fifth in April. The PHEV recorded 2,949 deliveries, its smallest monthly figure since August 2024. Despite a 7.4% growth in registrations, its market share fell by 0.6pp to 3% due to increased market saturation.

Toyota C-HR registrations surge

Securing sixth was the Toyota C-HR, surging 321.2% year on year with 2,864 units. It accounted for 2.9% of the market, up 2pp compared to 12 months prior.

Seventh went to the Mercedes-Benz GLC. Although it achieved its biggest monthly total so far in 2025, the SUV’s 2,634 deliveries were still down by 23.2%. This translated to a 2.7% share, down from 4.6%.

Just one unit behind was the Cupra Formentor. However, it had contrasting fortunes compared to one year ago, enjoying a 6.2% rise in registrations. Yet, its market share dropped by 0.6pp to 2.7%.

BMW’s 5-Series placed ninth after landing outside the best-sellers top 10 in March. The saloon reached 2,587 deliveries in the month, up 145.2% year on year. The PHEV accounted for 2.6% of the overall total, up from 1.4%.

The Audi A3 closed out the top 10, making its first appearance in the table this year. The model recorded a 2.7% fall in volumes compared to April 2024. However, its 2,538-unit total was the model’s highest monthly figure since then. It took a 2.6% market share, down by 0.9pp.

VW takes fight to Ford

The Volvo XC60 continued to lead Europe’s PHEV market in the year to date, with 19,905 registrations and a 5.4% share. Behind, the VW Tiguan took second from the Ford Kuga. The former recorded 17,646 deliveries and a 4.8% share between January and April. Meanwhile, the Kuga made up 4.3% of PHEV volumes with 15,918 units.

BYD’s Seal U finished fourth thanks to 14,974 registrations. This translated to a 4.1% market share. Then came the Toyota C-HR, with a 3.3% share and 12,193 deliveries. The Cupra Formentor secured sixth, accounting for 3.1% of the overall total, with 11,253 units.

Just 246 registrations behind was the BMW X1, benefitting from a strong April. This gave the SUV 11,007 units and a 3% share. The BMW 5-Series claimed eighth, representing 2.6% of the PHEV market and posting 9,633 deliveries.

The Hyundai Tucson claimed ninth with 8,941 registrations and a 2.4% share. Skoda’s Kodiaq was only 180 units behind the SUV, recording 8,761 deliveries and capturing 2.4% of total volumes.

EU registrations dip continues as new emission regulations proposed

The EU’s new-car market has not seen a good start to 2025, underlined by another registrations drop in February. Autovista24 special content editor Phil Curry assesses the latest figures.

Europe’s new-car market struggled in February, with petrol and diesel registrations the culprit once again. The market saw increased battery-electric vehicle (BEV) and hybrid registrations. But these were not enough to offset major collapses in deliveries of fossil-fuel powertrains.

The latest data from ACEA shows that the EU market fell 3.4% in the month, with 853,670 units delivered. This was a gap of 30,168 units compared to the same period last year.

Changes in regulations

At the start of March, the European Commission submitted its industry action plan. It set out a roadmap to relax the CO2 emissions regulation timetable on new cars.

Previously, manufacturers were required to reach an average emission level no higher than 93.6g/km across their fleets. Otherwise, they would face fines for each 1g/km over.

Carmakers will now have a period of three years to comply. The average emissions figures between 2025 and 2027 will be taken into account. This means any emissions over the limit can be balanced out in the remaining period.

Before this, some carmakers may have withheld petrol and diesel sales, lowering the number of models available. This would have been countered with a greater availability of hybrid and electric vehicles (EVs), resulting in lower fleet emissions.

Moving forward, carmakers will be wary of not being able to balance out high average fleet emissions in one year. However, they may look to offer a more rounded powertrain range to boost sales and profits.

BEVs buck the decline in registrations

Whether a result of the previous emission regulation or a surge in popularity, the BEV market is currently riding high. During February, the market was up 23.7%, with 131,275 registrations. This was a difference of 25,109 units compared to February 2024, highlighting the improvement of the technology.

In terms of market share, BEVs made up 15.4% of total registrations in the month. This was up 3.4 percentage points (pp) compared to the same month last year.

Across the big four markets, Germany saw the highest volume, with 35,949 registrations, up 30.8%. Spain saw the biggest increase, with 6,112 units equating to year-on-year growth of 60.6%.

Italy’s BEV market grew 38.2% with 6,922 units. Only France saw a decline, down 1.9%, with a volume of 25,335 units. This was still the second-highest total in Europe.

With both Italy and Spain recording low BEV volumes, the market is more balanced than most. Both Belgium and the Netherlands can be considered major markets for the all-electric powertrain. Last month, Belgium saw 13,040 BEV deliveries, up 38.9%. Meanwhile, the Netherlands was up 22.4%, with 10,174 units.

Registrations building back

BEVs struggled in the EU last year. A mix of incentive changes, subsidy cancellations and tariff implementations affected the market. However, the technology has started this year well, with two high double-digit increases in the first two months of 2025.

This means in the year-to-date, BEVs were up 28.4%, with 255,489 units delivered. Three of the four largest EU markets accounted for 46.4% of all BEV registrations, and recorded robust double-digit gains. These included Germany, up 41%, Belgium, up 38%, and the Netherlands, up 25%. This contrasted with France, which saw a slight decline of 1.3%.

BEVs have taken a 15.2% share of the EU new-car market so far in 2025, up from 11.5% at the same point last year. The increase in the year-to-date figures may be due to fluctuations in the BEV market at the start of 2024. This is backed up by the strong result in Germany.

At the end of 2023, the country abruptly stopped its incentive scheme for private buyers. This impacted registration totals at the beginning of last year, which the market is now making up for. With increased uptake in other markets and the potential effects of emission regulations, the EU BEV market is pushing forward.

Hybrids remain popular

Hybrids were the only other powertrain to record growth in February. Made up of full and mild-hybrids, this sector saw 304,062 units registered, an increase of 19% year on year.

The result meant that hybrids once again led the new-car market in the month, with a 35.6% share of deliveries. This was an improvement on the 28.9% hold 12 months ago. At this point the technology was closing in on the once market-leading petrol powertrain.

Across the first two months of the year, hybrids improved their volume by 18.7%. A total of 594,059 units have been registered. This is nearly 100,000 more than in the same period last year. Their share of 35.2% of the market was up by 6.4pp.

Meanwhile, plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) suffered a minor decline in February. Figures were down by 1.4%, with 63,570 deliveries to customers. However, due to fluctuations elsewhere in the market, the powertrain’s share grew by 0.1pp, to 7.4%.

PHEVs have had a tricky start to the year, seemingly being bypassed by drivers in favour of hybrids or BEVs. The technology was 5% down across the first two months of 2025, with 124,947 registrations. This gave it a 7.4% hold of the total market, a drop of 0.2pp.

Electrified market dominates

These individual results combine to show that the EU market is moving further towards an electrified future.

The EV market, made up of BEVs and PHEVs, grew 14.2% last month, hampered slightly by the plug-in hybrid decline. 22.8% of all models delivered in February were plug-ins, as the sector edges towards a quarter of the market. This was up from 19.3% recorded in the same month last year.

Between January and February, EVs were up 15.1%, again thanks to the strong performance of BEVs. Their combined market share of 22.6% was up from 19% at the same point in 2024.

Adding hybrids into the mix, electrified models dominated the EU new-car market. In February, the market share increased by 10.2pp, to 58.4%. The grouping saw registrations grow by 17.1% in February, equating to 72,823 more electrified model deliveries.

In the year to date, the result was similar. Electrified vehicles lead with a 57.8% market share. This was up by 10pp year on year, while registration totals improved by 17.3%. This equates to an increase of 143,667 units compared to the same point in 2024.

ICE slide continues

While electrified models fly high, internal-combustion engines (ICEs) have pulled the overall EU registration figures into decline.

Petrol registrations in February plummeted 22.4% year on year. A total of 244,073 units were delivered to customers in the month, equating to a market share of 28.6%. This was a drop of 7pp compared to the same period last year.

Meanwhile, diesel registrations fell 28.8%, to 80,569 units. This meant the powertrain took a 9.4% hold of total figures, down from 12.8% last year.

Over the first two months of 2025, petrol registrations fell by 20.5%, with 489,838 units. The fuel type’s market share of 29.1% was down from 35.5% in the same period last year. Diesel was down by 28%, with 163,452 registrations. It made up 9.7% of the market, down 3.4pp.

Combined, the ICE market fell 24.1% in February. Its year-on-year deficit of 102,988 deliveries could not be plugged by electrified models, leading to the EU market’s overall decline. The powertrain grouping captured 38% of overall volumes, a decline of 10.4pp year on year.

The same situation occurred in the year to date. ICE registrations fell 22.5%, with a gap of 189,720 units. This was too large to be bridged by electrified registrations. So, the EU market ended the period with a total loss of 51,458 deliveries.

Petrol and diesel models accounted for 38.8% of new-car volumes across the first two months of 2025. This was a significant distance from the 48.5% recorded in the same period last year.

Whether the changes to emissions rules will help ICE registrations remains to be seen. However, the market has been in decline for some time. This suggests that the EU’s shift towards electrification is caused by the changing attitudes of buyers and overall model range options.

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Will European EV registrations surge in 2025?

What is the outlook for European electric vehicle (EV) registrations in 2025 and beyond? How will complex challenges impact deliveries? Neil King, head of forecasting at EV Volumes, presents the latest European forecast with Autovista24 special content editor Phil Curry.

Europe’s light-vehicle market, comprised of passenger cars and light-commercial vehicles (LCVs), increased by 1.7% year on year in 2024. This came after a strong improvement in registrations of 13.9% in the previous year.

There are many potential challenges facing the European market this year. Additionally, new action plans have eased major hurdles facing the EU market. This makes forecasting the region’s performance difficult.

Currently, EV Volumes believes there is too much uncertainty to quantify the impact of possible tariffs and developments surrounding the war in Ukraine on European light-vehicle sales. It does assume there is a greater risk of rising inflation and energy costs. This may lead to higher interest rates across the region.

Accordingly, EV Volumes forecasts that Western and Central European light-vehicle registrations will grow by just 0.65% in 2025. This is lower than the December 2024 forecast, which predicted growth of 2.6%.

Complex challenges in European market

Just over 15 million units are forecast for delivery in 2025. This falls short of the more than 18 million units registered in Europe during 2019. This means the continent’s automotive market will face another year struggling to achieve pre-COVID-19 levels.

EV Volumes does not see the European market returning to these levels during its forecast horizon. This is currently set to 2040. The forecast for 2026 now sits at year-on-year growth of 2.1%. This hinges on a complex interplay of regulatory and economic factors.

For example, stricter CO2 emissions standards are expected to lead OEMs to pool emissions with other manufacturers. The regulation is also predicted to force carmakers to push battery-electric vehicle (BEV) sales. They will look to achieve this through lower prices, discounting and rolling out new models.

Meeting the lower EU emissions target will require a major increase in EV sales and may create a price war supported by lower lithium costs. OEMs may even resort to restricting internal-combustion engine (ICE) supply to avoid costly fines for exceeding their emissions targets.

The outcome will depend on how OEMs balance short-term gains with long-term compliance and market shifts.

However, on 3 March, the European Commission unveiled its Industrial Action Plan for the automotive sector. These proposed measures aim to support the industry’s competitiveness and transition to zero-emission mobility in the EU.

One notable proposal is the relaxation of the 2025 CO2 emissions targets for cars and vans. This extends the compliance period from one to three years, from 2025 to 2027. So, vehicle manufacturers now have greater flexibility to avoid costly fines.

European declines in 2024

European EV deliveries fell by 2.2% to 3.07 million units in 2024. This represented a 20.5% market share, compared to 21.3% in 2023.

The decline was mostly because of changes in EV subsidies. Schemes in France, Ireland and Germany were reduced during the year, especially for plug-in hybrids (PHEVs).

While Germany is considering a possible reintroduction of BEV incentives, given the current socio-economic situation, this may not be implemented. Even Norway, regarded as a leading market for EVs, ended its VAT exemption.

Furthermore, most legacy OEMs could stay safely below their CO2 limits without selling more EVs. There was even a clear year-end push on ICE vehicles in many markets. This meant these models would not count towards the lower average emissions targets from 2025.

EV sales to rise

Yet there are some positives for the EV market. Many more affordable BEVs, such as the Citroen e-C3, are being rolled out. Global EV-leader BYD also has expansion plans for the region. Other Chinese vehicle manufacturers are also weighing up European expansions.

Considering the changes to the EU CO2 emissions targets, EV Volumes forecasts that European EV sales will increase 15.1% year-on-year in 2025 to 3.53 million units.

This equates to 23.4% of all light-vehicle sales, higher than the previous year’s share. It is also more than the EV market’s hold in 2023. BEV volumes are forecast to grow 20.6% year-on-year, with the technology accounting for 72% of the 2025 EV sales mix. PHEV sales are only forecast to grow by 2.9%.

The EV market is expected to grow further in 2026. This is due to the rollout of new plug-ins, lower prices, and lower EU CO2 emission targets. The powertrains are forecast to take a 26.4% share of the European light-vehicle market next year. One in three new vehicle registrations in 2027 are expected to be an EV.

Moderate growth for BEVs

The proposed amendment to the EU CO2 emissions targets requires approval from all member states. However, EV Volumes anticipates its implementation. There have also been discussions about amending the 2035 ICE ban to potentially exclude PHEVs. However, such measures were not included in the current action plan.

EV Volumes forecasts a moderate share growth for BEVs in 2025 and 2026, with a more significant increase in 2027. This will come as manufacturers aim to achieve average CO2 emissions levels of 93.6g/km for cars between 2025 and 2027. Meanwhile, LCVs will need to reach 153.9g/km over the three-year period.

EV Volumes calculations suggest that to meet these targets, the BEV share of light vehicles in the EU needs to average at least 20% between 2025 and 2027. This equates to around 20.5% for passenger cars and 18% for LCVs.

Without additional stimulus, manufacturers are not expected to meet this average target for all light vehicles over the three-year period. This is largely due to the slower pace of LCV electrification.

However, it is anticipated that the targets will be reached as an average between 2025 to 2028. There might still be additional exemptions, lower targets or new incentives, either EU-wide or at a national level. Any implementation of new subsidies would lead to an increase in the BEV share outlook.

Trouble with tariffs

Volumes in 2025 could also be affected by the implementation of tariffs on BEVs imported into the EU from China.

On 31 October 2024, duties came into effect following discussions with Chinese authorities and a vote by EU member states. Carmakers were handed differing tariff levels depending on the discovered subsidisation of value chains by the Chinese government.

Tesla announced a price increase of about €1,500 for the Model 3. Nio and Xpeng stated they would not change prices in the EU. Meanwhile, BYD is expected to absorb the tariffs without increasing prices. SAIC previously stated it had sufficient stock to supply the market with MG models until November 2024.

Falling lithium prices are also supporting OEMs’ ability to resist increasing prices of BEVs built in China. The impact on all-electric sales in Europe was negligible in 2024. However, EV Volumes has considered price changes, demand elasticities and reflected assumptions in the forecast for 2025 and beyond.

Changes in the EV forecast

Compared to the previous EV Volumes Europe forecast, the 2025 EV share and volumes have decreased. This is because manufacturers can meet EU CO2 targets over three years instead of striving to achieve them in 2025. The 23.4% share forecast for this year has, therefore, fallen by 1.3 percentage points.

EVs are expected to represent 60.5% of the market in 2030 and 93.1% of total sales in 2035. This includes some tolerance for timing interpretations of the ZEV mandate. It also allows for exemptions for ICE vehicles that may be deemed unsuitable for full electrification.

EV Volumes then expects the plug-in share of the European light-vehicle market to reach 99.4% in 2040.

LCV BEV struggles

The uptake of plug-in LCVs still runs far behind that of the passenger car market. EV growth of 45.8% in Europe during 2023 was encouraging. However, the volume and share of electric LCVs suffered more than passenger cars in 2024.

High prices compared to diesel LCVs and limited range have hindered uptake. Yet, there are all-electric products on the market, such as the Ford Transit, Renault Trafic, and VW Transporter. In addition, upgraded versions of the small, medium, and large electric vans offered by Stellantis brands will bolster demand.

EV Volumes expects EVs will make up 8.1% of the new LCV market this year from 5.4% in 2024. It will then reach 10.9% in 2026 before rising to 47.8% in 2030.

In the long term, the 2035 ICE ban will further accelerate the transition to pure-electric LCVs. The forecast assumes that all Western and Central European markets will follow the directive, allowing for some exemptions and grace periods.

Therefore, BEV adoption in the LCV market will not reach 100% in 2035. However, it is forecast to take a 90.5% share of LCVs, compared to 91.4% for passenger cars. In 2040, EV Volumes projects that the BEV share for both cars and LCVs will be 99.1%.

The role of e-fuels and other CO2-neutral ICE fuels is still uncertain. These propulsion methods will likely be limited to niche concepts, which will also depend on national tax regimes. EV Volumes expects the deployment of hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles (FCEVs) to be limited for LCVs, with their share peaking at just 0.01%.

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What are the global EV market’s most successful brands?

The global electric vehicle (EV) market recorded double-digit growth across 2024, but which carmakers sold the most plug-in models? Autovista24 editor Tom Geggus reviews the powertrain and brand performances.

Combined, registrations of battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) reached over 17.29 million units in 2024. This meant the global EV market grew by 26.1% compared with 2023.

The latest data from EV Volumes shows that BEVs recorded a greater volume of deliveries than PHEVs in 2024. The former saw registrations reach 10.8 million units, while the latter reached 6.49 million units.

While both powertrains recorded growth across the year, PHEV registrations remained in the double-digit range. This ensured that the overall EV market remained positive throughout 2024. February was the market’s lowest point with growth dropping to 1.2%.

One major motivating factor for the dramatic fluctuation in growth between January and February was the Chinese market. While the country has seen demand for EVs accelerate, the Chinese New Year impacted deliveries in February. The market went on to recover across the rest of the year, with December recording growth of 26.1%.

At 62.5%, BEVs commanded the greatest share of the global EV market across 2024, while PHEVs made up 37.5%. Although this was a sizeable difference, plug-in hybrids made a gain on 2023 when they held a market share of 30.7%. The powertrain enjoyed increasing demand in China, as well as more consumers choosing the bridging technology globally.

BYD’s global EV success

BYD led the global EV market in 2024. Its combined deliveries of BEVs and PHEVs reached over 3.84 million units, up 33.6% year on year. This meant it counted for 22.2% of all EV sales across the world, up by 1.2 percentage points (pp) from 2023.

Tesla came second with half of the deliveries and market share of BYD. However, while the Chinese carmaker manufactures both BEVs and PHEVs, the US brand produces only all-electric cars.

Tesla sold 1.78 million units in 2024, down by 1.2% year on year, as global competition heated up. This saw the brand claim a market share of 10.3%, down from 13.2% in 2023.

In third place, Wuling was considerably behind the top two, with 688,415 deliveries. This equated to a 44.7% increase from the 475,801 registrations recorded in 2023. Wuling made up 4% of all EV sales, up 0.5%.

European shares slip

In fourth, BMW sold 535,586 plug-in vehicles, up 7.1% year on year. While it was the leading European brand, it made up just 3.1% of the global EV market, down 0.5pp.

Li Auto finished the year in fifth, as its EV sales jumped by 40% to 526,353 units. Its market share went from 2.7% in 2023 to 3% in 2024. In sixth, Geely also took a 2.7% market share, up 1.2pp. Its plug-in deliveries reached 458,473 units from 208,342 in the previous year.

Meanwhile, Volkswagen (VW) saw its EV sales and its market share fall as it took seventh. The brand’s deliveries dropped 5.8% year on year to 454,631. This meant the German carmaker’s share slipped 0.9pp to 2.6%. Taking eighth, Aito’s market share climbed by a considerable 1.5pp to 2.2%. Its sales volume increased by 290.1% to 386,817 units.

In ninth, Mercedes-Benz saw its global EV deliveries increase by a marginal 0.2% to 374,311 units. This meant it commanded 2.2% of the market, down from 2.7% in 2023. In 10th, Aion’s sales dropped by 22.6% to 373,906 sales. The Chinese brand’s market share fell 1.3pp to 2.2%.

December’s global brand ranking

Leading the global EV market in December, BYD’s deliveries increased by 31% to 421,290 units. This meant it made up 21.4% of all plug-in registrations, up from 20.6% in December 2023.

Tesla ended the month in second, some distance behind with a market share of 10.3%, down 2.3pp. However, its deliveries did increase by 3.2% to 201,971 units. In third, Wuling’s market share increased by 0.5pp to 5%. The brand recorded 98,040 EV sales, up 40.2% year on year.

In fourth, Geely recorded registrations growth of 176.1% in December, as it delivered 70,111 units. The brand represented 3.6% of the market, up 2pp. Fifth-place Li Auto saw sales climb 19.9% to 60,359 EVs. However, its market share fell marginally to 3.1% from 3.2% a year earlier.

In sixth, BMW’s EV registrations shrank by 10.1% in December to 53,444 units. This meant it accounted for 2.7% of all plug-in deliveries, down from 3.8% in December 2023. Chery climbed to seventh as its share reached 2.6%, up 1.5pp. This was thanks to a 204.5% year-on-year increase with 50,291 units.

VW slipped to eighth as its EV registrations dipped by 12.3% to 45,655 units. Accordingly, its market share slipped by 1pp to 2.3%. Then came Leapmotor in ninth, as its sales increased by 47.9% to 41,353 units. This meant its share climbed 0.3pp to 2.1%.

Finally, Xpeng finished the month in 10th place. Its sales soared by 85.7% to 37,330 units, pushing its share up to 1.9% from 1.3% in December 2023.

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The Automotive Update: Europe’s leading BEV market, emissions pooling and CES 2025

Early January 2025 has seen a flurry of major automotive news stories, from emissions pooling to CES. Autovista24 journalist Tom Hooker discusses the week’s biggest headlines.

Which European market sold the most battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) in 2024? The UK reconfirms its phase-out date for the sale of new petrol and diesel cars. Carmakers are pooling their emissions figures to navigate CO2 targets.

CES 2025 featured some important new automotive technology. Which model announcements made waves this week? Xpeng and Volkswagen announce a new joint charging network in China. Rolls Royce confirms the expansion of a UK production facility.

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The BEV battle

The 2024 registration results for Germany and the UK have been released. The UK recorded growth across the year while deliveries in Germany declined. This drop was largely due to a slump in the BEV sector, which fell by 27.4%. This meant the country lost its title as Europe’s best-selling BEV market. The UK took the mantle instead, thanks to a 56.8% BEV surge in December.

Meanwhile, the UK government confirmed it will bring the sales ban on new petrol and diesel models back to 2030. This deadline has changed on multiple occasions over the past few years. It was first announced in 2017, with a target date of 2040. In 2020 this was brought forward to 2030, before its push back to 2035, which was confirmed in 2023.

Carmakers are ‘pooling’ CO2 emissions with Tesla and Polestar to meet the EU’s 2025 targets. This means manufacturers with lower electric vehicle (EV) sales can buy emissions credits from other brands that are comfortably meeting targets. Stellantis, Ford, Toyota and Mazda are set to pool with BEV manufacturer Tesla. Meanwhile, Polestar, Volvo Cars, Mercedes-Benz and Smart will pool their emissions together.

CES 2025 and new models

At CES 2025, Sony Honda Mobility confirmed it is now accepting online reservations for its Afeela model. However, the company is currently only accepting orders from customers in California. Honda presented a world premiere of two prototype models from its 0 Series. BMW also revealed new in-cabin technology to improve the user experience. These systems will appear in new models, including the Neue Klasse, from the end of this year. 

Elsewhere, Skoda unveiled its new Enyaq on Wednesday. Renault revealed the interior of its Twingo E-Tech prototype at the Brussels Motor Show. BYD also introduced the BYD Atto 2 to its European lineup. Toyota confirmed its new Urban Cruiser will be rolled out in late summer 2025. Genesis took the covers off its redesigned GV60 crossover SUV, with more details expected in the first quarter of this year.

Xpeng and Volkswagen (VW) announced plans to jointly build one of the largest super-fast charging networks in China. With a target of over 20,000 charging piles operated by the carmakers across 420 cities, both Xpeng and VW customers will be able to access the services.

Rolls Royce revealed expansion plans for its production facility in the UK on Wednesday. More than £300 million (€358 million) will be invested into its Goodwood site. This is the largest financial commitment made to the location since it opened in 2003.

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How will a Trump presidency impact the global EV market in 2025 and beyond?

What did 2024 mean for the electric vehicle (EV) market? How will political changes, such as the return of Donald Trump, impact forecasts? Neil King, head of forecasting at EV Volumes, presents the latest global outlook with Autovista24 special content editor Phil Curry.

Once all registration data has been accounted for, the global light vehicle market, made up of passenger cars and light-commercial vehicles, is forecast to grow by 2.2% in 2024.

The latest information from EV Volumes shows a rise from the previous 0.9% forecast in September. This is thanks to improved figures in China, offsetting downgraded results in Europe and the non-Triad region.

The global EV share forecast has been upgraded to 20.4%, accounting for battery-electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs). This is up from 19.7% in September, with EV sales forecasted to grow by 25% across 2024.

The latest forecast of more than 17.7 million EV sales globally in 2024 is just over 800,000 units higher than EV Volumes predicted in September. However, the improved volume outlook for China cannot compensate for the downgrades to Europe, Northern America, and the non-Triad region in the longer term.

The global impact of Trump

The global EV volume outlook is lower in 2028 compared to September’s forecast. Plug-ins are expected to account for 33.9% of all sales worldwide, down from 34.1% in the previous report.

This is due to assumed changes to the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) with Donald Trump resuming the presidency. However, EVs are still forecast to account for 44.8% of light-vehicle sales in 2030, and 69.4% in 2035.

This year, the global electric light-vehicle market is expected to improve by 17%. This is a slowdown in growth as the market adapts to challenges in the year. The market faces tariffs on BEVs built in China and slower consumer demand. However, the share of EVs in the market will improve, up to 23.1%.

The number of EVs in operation is increasing rapidly, but their share of the total light-vehicle fleet is developing with a considerable delay. With 1.3 billion light vehicles on the road today. Assuming normal scrappage rates, EV Volumes forecasts it will take until 2042 for half the global fleet to be electric.

Uncertainty brews in North America

The automotive market recovery in North America is slightly stronger than anticipated by EV Volumes in September. This was aided by the US Federal Reserve cutting interest rates. Levels were lowered by 50 basis points in September, 25 basis points in November, and 50 basis in December.

The 100% import duty applied to EVs from China is not having a dramatic impact. This was anticipated as it only affects a few models. Measures came into effect in the US from 1 August and from 1 October in Canada.

Nevertheless, the rollout of the Volvo EX30 has been postponed until later this year. Additionally, the new Mini Cooper Electric will not land until 2026. Brands producing their EVs in China, such as Lynk&Co, Nio, Smart, and Zeekr, are unlikely to launch in Northern America until they relocate production.

EV Volumes has held its EV share forecast for 2024, at 10.3%, with growth of 13%. However, there is now far greater uncertainty about development of EV adoption in the US after the re-election of Donald Trump as president.

The Trump effect

Four key policy areas could be impacted by Donald Trump’s return. This includes a federal charging standard and funding for the National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure (NEVI).

Consumer tax credits from the IRA and the ‘leasing loophole’ could be affected. Tariffs and import duties on vehicles, even those sourced from Mexico and Canada, could be impacted. California may enforce stricter emissions standards, which have been adopted by several other states.

This means that forecasting EV adoption in North America is especially challenging. EV Volumes will need to make assumptions about policy changes and then quantify their impact.

At present, the assumption is that the IRA leasing loophole will be closed at some point in 2025. Higher import duties will apply from 2026, regardless of a vehicle’s origin. It is also assumed that the IRA will be diluted, if not entirely withdrawn, from 2028.

With these assumptions, EV Volumes expects the electric share of light-vehicle sales in North America to reach 12.8% in 2025. This is down from the 13.5% forecast in September. This share will then reach 39.2% in 2030, a fall from the previous 39.7% forecast. Meanwhile, 2035 will see a share of 70.7%, down from the previous expectation of 71.8%.

BEVs are still expected to account for 78.6% of EV sales in 2024. However, they are now projected to rise to 81.2% in 2025 (down from 82.4% forecast in September). Figures will climb to 93% in 2030 (down from 93.6%), and 96.6% in 2035 (down from 97.2%).

Europe’s challenges continue

The European light-vehicle market has faced considerable challenges in recent years. These seemed to be at an end in 2023 when deliveries improved by 13.9% year on year. However, cost-of-living increases and high interest rates have impacted the market in 2024. EV Volumes forecasts a 1.1% improvement across the full year.

This is slightly lower than the 2.4% improvement in September’s forecast. At 14.9 million units, this falls far short of the 18 million light vehicles registered in Europe in 2019. Moreover, EV Volumes does not see the European market returning to this level during the current forecast horizon, to 2035.

The EV market has seen increased challenges in 2024. Alongside the removal of incentives during 2023 in key markets, there were subsidy changes last year too. France lowered its subsidies last year. It then removed them completely for vehicles imported into Europe in January and for company-car buyers in mid-February. The country reduced the incentive amounts again at the end of November.

In January 2024, Switzerland completely removed the 4% import tax exemption for BEVs. Although Italy introduced a new incentive scheme in May 2024, the total funds dedicated to BEVs were fully depleted within a day.

Tactics at play

New CO2 regulations are due to coming into force in 2025. So, some carmakers may have pushed internal-combustion engine models more towards the end of last year. This would stop these vehicles from counting against their emissions totals for 2024. At the same time, holding back any low and zero-emission models into the first part of this year would reduce fleet CO2 levels.

With import tariffs on BEVs built in China, 2024 has proven difficult for the European EV market. EV Volumes forecasts a 4.8% decline in electric light-vehicle sales in Europe for 2024. This equates to over three million units, just 20.3% of all light-vehicle sales, down on the 21.3% share achieved in 2023, and even lower than the 2022 share of 20.7%.

This year looks brighter, however. Countries such as Spain and Poland are considering the revision of EV purchase subsidies. More affordable BEVs, such as the Citroen e-C3 are rolling out. Furthermore, global EV-leader BYD has expansion plans for the region alongside other Chinese OEMs.

EV Volumes expects a return to growth for the region in 2025. This is thanks to the rollout of new EVs, lower prices, and the implementation of more ambitious CO2 emission targets. EVs are predicted to gain a 24.7% share, as registrations improve by 25.2%. The share will rise to 61.6% in 2030, and 93.3% in 2035.

PHEVs boom in China

EV Volumes has again increased Chinese light-vehicle market forecast for 2024, to just under 25.8 million units. This equates to a 3.9% year-on-year growth. 2022 saw a boom in EV sales in China. This means the targeted 20% share of new-energy vehicles (NEVs) by 2025 was reached three years early.

The country has seen an uptick in PHEV sales over the last few years. The powertrain accounted for 18% of all EVs sold in 2021, claiming a 32% share in 2023. This was largely caused by high sales growth of BYD PHEVs and Li Auto extended-range electric vehicle (EREV) SUVs. Unsurprisingly, other Chinese OEMs are rolling out countless new PHEVs, which exacerbates their appeal.

EV Volumes forecasts that the powertrain capture a 42.5% share of the EV mix in 2024. However, with government plans to support the uptake of cleaner technology, the 2035 share outlook of EVs has been increased. BEVs are expected to gain ground against PHEVs from 2026 onwards.

In 2024, the EV market is forecast to improve by 37.6%, with the technology taking up 44.9% of all registrations in the country. Growth is expected to slow in 2025, with a 10.5% increase equating to around 12.8 million units. This would give the electric light-vehicle market a share of 48.8%.

In 2030, this is forecast to increase to 70.5%, reaching 86% in 2035. Growth rates could suggest even faster electrification of the market. EV Volumes remains cautious as regulatory and economic uncertainties remain high.

Non-Triad trails

Electric light-vehicle numbers in the non-Triad markets rose sharply for the third consecutive year in 2023, albeit from a low base.

Demand is increasingly supported by a wider availability of products, higher incentives, and lower import tariffs in some countries. EV sales in the non-Triad markets exceeded one million units in 2023, with growth of 82%.

The plug-in growth forecast for the region in 2024 has been lowered to 28.1%%, with the overall light-vehicle market expected to rise by just 0.4%. This is due to weakness in countries including Japan and South Korea.

However, governments are introducing measures to strengthen their currencies and stimulate consumer demand. This should support vehicle sales going forward.

Thailand, for example, has lowered the interest rate for automotive loans. The September and November cuts in the US interest rate should also have positive consequences for multiple economies.

EV Volumes slightly reduced the EV share for the year to 4.6%, which translates into just below 1.3 million deliveries. BEVs are, however, expected to perform slightly better in the EV market than anticipated in September.

For 2025, the EV market is expected to improve by 39.3%, equating to over 1.8 million units. The share is predicted to rise to 6.1% this year, before improving to 17% in 2030, and reaching 41.8% in 2035. This means the non-Triad region will trail global EV adoption by five to six years.

Many developing countries impose high tariffs on vehicle imports. Unless they exempt EVs, they will need to develop their own EV industry to catch up with adoption in mature markets.

Go to Autovista24 for related articles.

Does a 0-60 time still matter in the BEV market?

For decades, how quickly a car could go from 0 to 60mph (100kph) has provided an important indicator of desirability. But is this statistic still relevant in an increasingly electrified and varied automotive landscape? James Roberts, Autovista24 web editor, investigates.

Precise data and statistics are central to the automotive industry. When marketing a new vehicle, many carmakers highlight key metrics that help promote performance, economy, and durability. One long-standing measurement is focused on acceleration. More specifically, the 0-60mph metric.

The time it takes for a vehicle to reach 60mph from standstill, has long been recognised as a standard measure of linear acceleration. While only demonstrating one element of performance, it has proved enduring and evocative.

Whether a battery-electric vehicle (BEV) or internal-combustion engine (ICE) vehicle, manufacturers still include 0-60mph times when marketing new models. This is particularly true for higher-performance cars. Alongside power, top speed and range or fuel consumption, acceleration remains key to driving interest.

Subsequently, this statistic is a staple of vehicle-centred discussions and comparisons. However, is this metric truly indicative of a vehicle’s overall performance? In the era of fast-accelerating BEVs, combined with an increased consumer emphasis on range and energy consumption, is a low 0-60mph time still important?

Why is 0-60 important?

A quick 0-60mph time can serve as a status symbol. Behind the wheel, it represents the vehicle’s capabilities and the affinity for performance. However, it can also be seen as something that looks good on paper but is rarely fully exploited in the real world.

To accurately measure a vehicle’s 0-60mph time, specialised equipment and controlled conditions are essential. Both professional publications and carmakers typically conduct these tests at dedicated facilities. This includes bespoke automotive testing tracks or closed airport runways. 

Generally, multiple acceleration runs are performed in opposite directions. This is to account for potential environmental factors like wind or road surface variations. Some testers combine a timed 0-60mph figure with a quarter-mile timed run.

‘Like many automotive performance statistics, a car’s 0-60mph figure is one that is typically only achievable under perfect conditions and with an experienced driver,’ stated Autovista Group senior residual value analyst Robert Redman.

‘In day-to-day motoring, it can only really be attempted on odd occasions, such as when leaving the front of the queue at traffic lights. At best, that achieves very little, and at worst, can result in serious damage to the car’s drivetrain,’ he added. 

BEVs rewrite the 0-60 rules

Over a decade ago, when BEVs were a niche luxury product, acceleration was a key selling point. Early BEVs like the 2008 Tesla Roadster, could go from 0-60mph in under two seconds.

However, such vehicles were limited in range and practicality. To justify their premium price tag, manufacturers focused on showcasing their impressive acceleration. 

This shift has significantly altered performance benchmarks and cascaded down into everyday BEVs currently on the market. Mid-range family cars now possess the acceleration capabilities of high-performance ICE models. Some even match the performance of these cars in terms of 0-60mph times. 

‘Sure, the ability to launch a family sedan like a Lamborghini is amusing initially,’ Redman said. ‘However, the reality is that most roads are filled with slower traffic. This increases the risk of accidents.

‘Moreover, the silent acceleration of BEVs lacks the visceral thrill associated with high-performance internal combustion engines. A similar stunt in a petrol or diesel car would likely draw criticism, with other drivers labelling it as showboating or irresponsible,’ he added.

What makes BEVs so quick?

The BEV powertrain is more simple, with fewer moving parts compared to ICE vehicles. This streamlined design reduces energy losses, allowing for more efficient power delivery to the wheels.

Electric motors found in BEVs produce maximum torque from a standstill. This means they deliver full power immediately without a need to climb through a ratio of gears as is the case with ICE vehicles. This allows for smoother and quicker acceleration.

While acceleration metrics have historically been a significant marketing tool, particularly for BEVs, their relevance may diminish over time. As electric technology advances and battery capacities increase, the focus may shift from raw acceleration figures to other factors such as range, charging speed, and overall efficiency. 

Range beats acceleration

While impressive acceleration can still excite consumers and differentiate products, it is likely to become less of a defining factor. As BEVs become more commonplace and their performance capabilities considered standard, their relatively rapid acceleration will become the norm.

‘In the past, BEVs primarily differentiated themselves through their notable acceleration,’ commented Autovista Group’s chief economist Dr Christof Engelskirchen. ‘While this remains a significant advantage, the focus is shifting towards a more balanced performance profile. Linear acceleration, a characteristic unique to BEVs, continues to captivate, but factors like range and charging infrastructure are gaining equal importance.’

‘The enhanced performance that comes with BEVs is nice to have,’ stated Redman. ‘Undoubtedly, some will choose the faster variant when purchasing a vehicle. However, that acceleration potential often comes with a reduction in the all-important range, especially if it is used too often.’

Today, reaching a speed above 100mph is achievable for the majority of new cars. Alongside this, a sub-10 second 0-60mph time is nothing unusual. In that respect, this benchmark has lost some of its relevance. 

Changing attitudes

According to Redman, many motorists are less attracted by the allure of a quick 0-60 time. Instead, mid-range acceleration is more important in real-world conditions. Getting from 20mph to 40mph, or 30mph to 50mph, is essential for executing safe overtaking and accelerating out of corners.

‘For knowledgeable drivers, this is more important than the standing start time as it is utilised many times during a drive,’ confirms Redman. ‘That is one reason why such drivers will choose a large-capacity diesel over a petrol equivalent, as the former will often provide a much greater amount of mid-range torque. The 0-60mph time is also not an indication of a car’s overall driving experience. A dragster may have a blistering 0-60mph time, but try driving it through a winding mountain road.’

For BEVs, range is key. For prospective buyers, particularly those in sectors where tax benefits are not applicable, range remains critical. This is especially true for individuals who lack home charging options and rely on public or workplace infrastructure. Practicality, including sufficient boot space, is also a significant consideration for many. 

According to Engelskirchen, as BEV development continues, priorities from both OEMs and consumers will continue to shift. This could see the importance of the once headline-grabbing 0-60mph figure slipping further down buyers’ list of priorities.

‘As BEVs mature and enter the mass market, the focus is shifting from peak performance to practical range,’ confirmed Engelskirchen. ‘Optimising factors such as battery efficiency, energy management, and aerodynamic design will be key to extending range, without compromising vehicle weight or cost. 

‘While advancements in battery technology are promising, a comprehensive approach to vehicle engineering will be necessary to deliver affordable, long-range electric vehicles,’ he concluded.

This content is brought to you by Autovista24.

Are global EV sales forecast to improve by the end of 2024?

Will Europe’s sluggish electric vehicle (EV) market impact global deliveries in 2024? Neil King, head of forecasting at EV Volumes, presents the latest outlook with Autovista24 special content editor Phil Curry.

The global EV light-vehicle market is expected to perform well by the end of this year, according to the latest EV Volumes forecast. Despite a European slowdown, other markets will bolster deliveries of electric passenger cars and light-commercial vehicles. This will push the 2024 sales figure past 2023’s result.

EV registrations are forecast to improve by 19% worldwide, with 16.9 million sales and a 19.7% market share. This is 440,000 more units than predicted in July. However, the global EV volume outlook for 2028 onwards is up to 400,000 units lower than previously forecast. The global EV share is expected to reach 22.6% in 2025, 44.6% in 2030, and 69.5% in 2035.

The overall global light-vehicle market is expected to improve by 0.9% this year, up from the 0.5% forecast previously. This is due to the improved outlook for China compensating for the downgraded forecasts for Europe, Northern America, and the non-Triad region.

EV struggles in Europe

The entire European light-vehicle market saw a strong performance in 2023, with 13.9% growth in registrations. This came on the back of more turbulent times, caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting supply-chain crisis.

However, the market has struggled this year, with some bigger regions posting regular declines. Order intake is subdued because of high interest rates and cost-of-living increases, which have impacted demand.

EV Volumes now forecasts that the market will grow by only 2.4% this year. This figure is lower than the 2.6% forecast in July, highlighting how much the market has struggled in recent months.

This latest forecast equates to around 15.1 million units registered. This falls far short of the 18 million light vehicles delivered in Europe during 2019. EV Volumes does not see the European market returning to this level during the current forecast horizon, which runs to 2035.

Europe’s EV market has also struggled this so far year. With several countries amending or cancelling their subsidy programmes, a naturalisation of the sector has occurred.

Europe’s light-vehicle EV market can be expected to drop by the end of 2024, with deliveries down 2.2% compared to last year. This will only be a temporary downturn, with growth of 22.8% forecast for 2025, then a 20.1% rise in 2026 and an improvement of 21.1% in 2027.

The technology is forecast to dominate the market by 2029, representing 50.1% of all light-vehicle registrations. By 2030, there will be over 10 million EVs sold in Europe, with the technology taking 61% of the market.

PHEVs popular in China

China’s EV boom continued in 2022 with the powertrain’s share hitting 26.7% up from 13.9% in 2021. The government set a target for new energy vehicles (NEVs) sales, including battery-electric vehicles (BEVs), plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) and fuel-cell electric vehicles. These powertrains had to make up 20% of deliveries by 2025, a target which was reached three years ahead of time.

EV Volumes has slightly increased the total light-vehicle market forecast again for 2024. It now expects 24.5 million units to be sold. However, this still equates to a 1.3% year-on-year decline.

The market’s swing towards PHEVs, from 18.3% of all EVs sold in 2021 to 24.6% in 2022, continued last year. PHEVs accounted for 32.1% of EV registrations in 2023. This was largely caused by high sales growth of extended-range EVs (EREVs), popularised by BYD and Li Auto.

As a result, other Chinese OEMs have begun rolling out new PHEVs, which will exacerbate their appeal. Therefore, EV Volumes forecasts that the technology will capture a 41.6% share of the EV mix in 2024.

The country’s government is planning to provide additional financial support to encourage the adoption of cleaner technology, including EVs. Therefore, EV Volumes has increased the EV share outlook across the forecast horizon. It expects BEVs to gain ground in the BEV-PHEV mix from 2025 onwards.

In the medium and long term, the local forecast is not restricted by target shares or capacity limitations. EVs are forecast to account for 47.8% of light-vehicle sales in 2025, 69.5% in 2030, and 85% in 2035.

Support in North America?

EV growth in North America has proved consistent over the last two years. The entire market improved by 47.6% in 2022, and 47.8% in 2023. The EV share of all light-vehicle sales also improved in 2023 to 9.4%, up from 7.2% in 2022.

The country’s overall automotive market recovery is expected to continue. However, this will be at a slightly slower pace than anticipated earlier this year. This has affected the EV market share and volume forecasts. In 2024, a 12.8% improvement in light-vehicle EV registrations is expected, followed by a 37.8% increase in 2025.

The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) supports further, rapid EV growth in the US. However, compliance with upcoming battery and material-sourcing requirements is still unclear for many EV entries.

The incentives for producing vehicles and batteries in the region remain strong while also threatening imported brands and models. However, the Union of Auto Workers strikes highlighted the risks that EVs may pose to domestic OEMs. In turn, this would hurt US jobs in the automotive sector.

The IRA is assumed to remain effective until 2032. However, this could change when Donald Trump takes to the Oval Office at the start of 2025. Based on existing data, EV Volumes currently forecasts that the EV share of light-vehicle sales will reach 10.3% in 2024. This will then increase to 13.5% in 2025, then 39.7% in 2030, and 71.8% in 2035.

BEVs are expected to account for 78.6% of US EV sales this year, down from 79.7% in 2023. However, this figure will rise to 82.4% in 2025, then 93.6% in 2030, and 97.2% in 2035.

Non-Triad holds firm

EV numbers in the non-Triad markets rose sharply for the third consecutive year in 2023, albeit from a low base. EV demand is increasingly supported by a wider availability of products, higher incentives, and lower import tariffs in some countries.

Combined EV sales in the non-Triad markets reached roughly 556,000 units in 2022 and exceeded one million units for the first time in 2023. This equated to respective growth of 90.9% and 81.7%.

Volumes grew by more than 100% in markets including Australia, Thailand, Brazil, Turkey, Malaysia, and Mexico in 2023 and more than 50% in India and Japan.

Despite this, the combined EV share in the non-Triad region was only 3.6% in 2023. This was up from 2.1% in 2022, as large vehicle markets like India, Japan, Brazil, and Mexico still sell very few EVs. This also pulled down the global average EV share, as non-Triad countries accounted for a third of global light-vehicle sales in 2023.

The growth forecast for the region’s overall light vehicles in 2024 has been lowered to only 0.7% due to weakness in countries including Japan and South Korea. However, governments are introducing measures to strengthen their currencies and stimulate consumer demand, which should support vehicle sales going forward.

Therefore, EV Volumes has held the 2024 EV share forecast for the non-Triad countries at 4.8%, which translates into 1.37 million EV sales. Although, PHEVs are expected to perform better in the plug-in mix than previously anticipated.

The EV share is predicted to rise to 6.4% in 2025, reaching 17.7% in 2030, and 42.5% in 2035. This means the region will trail global EV adoption by about six years.

Future EV volume surge

The global volume of EVs is set to rise from just under 14.2 million units in 2023 to 71.2 million units in 2035. The latter figure is five times the amount of 2023’s volume. 

Meanwhile, annual traction battery demand is forecast to increase from 0.7 terawatt hours (TWh) in 2023 to 5.1TWh in 2035. This is over seven times the 2023 total. This is driven by the quest for longer electric ranges in all vehicle segments. The electrification of the popular full-size SUVs and pickups in North America is also increasing demand.

However, the trend for larger batteries is slowing as efficiency increases. Lower costs facilitate the electrification of smaller vehicles, where profit margins are tighter.

The number of EVs in operation is also increasing rapidly. However, their share of the total light-vehicle fleet is developing with considerable delay. There are a total of 1.33 billion light vehicles on roads around the world today.

Yet, EV Volumes' current forecast for plug-in growth expects that it will take until 2042 for half of the global fleet to be electric. This was calculated assuming normal scrappage rates.

Go to Autovista24 for related articles.

Launch Report: Citroën e-C3 makes all-electric mobility more affordable

The new Citroën e-C3 is a timely and affordable battery-electric vehicle (BEV) from the French carmaker. Autovista Group experts examine the model with Autovista24 special content editor Phil Curry.

Citroën is going through a period of reinvention, as it aims to make electric motoring affordable. Its new electric version of its popular C3 model, the e-C3, is its first step on this journey.

Looking to introduce more people to the benefits of BEVs, Citroën has designed the e-C3 to stand out, but not overburden buyers with expensive additions.

Autovista24’s latest Launch Report benchmarks the Citroën e-C3 against its key rivals in Austria, France, Italy and the UK. This includes a detailed analysis of its strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats. New price points are also outlined alongside forecast residual values.

Click here to open the interactive dashboard

SUV inspiration

The latest generation of the C3 adds a bolder design to the small hatchback, giving it an SUV profile. A boxy front end houses Citroën’s new badge design and headlight profile. This sets up a strong stance, helping the car look bigger than it is.

The shape may not seem overtly aerodynamic, but Citroën has included plenty of lines to channel air around the car. This includes the rear profile, where the bodywork flairs. This design continues into the lighting units, giving the impression of fins. This design was made even more extreme on the C5 Aircross Concept launched at the 2024 Paris Motor Show.

A straight back end and up to 17-inch wheels mean the model is far removed from the older, curvier C3. This makes it more visually appealing to a wider audience.

Technology on a budget

Inside, the e-C3 sees Citroën continue its legacy of driver and passenger comfort. The carmaker has included its advanced comfort seats, which use additional foam to provide extra cushioning and support. This, together with comfortable suspension, makes it a good fit for those looking for a relaxing drive.

The new vehicle profile also improves the interior space. The e-C3 stands 1.57-metres tall, higher than the old model, increasing headroom for front passengers. With the boxier SUV profile and no sweeping rooflines, rear headroom is also greatly improved. Back-seat passengers also benefit from good legroom, something that is sometimes difficult to find in smaller vehicles.

To help keep costs down, the e-C3 interior is sparse in terms of gadgets and premium technologies. However, this works in the vehicle’s favour. The 10.25-inch touchscreen is adequate, while the slim driver display sits high on the dashboard, well within the vision line. There are plenty of physical buttons for the vehicle controls too.

However, in the entry-level version, Citroën does not include the infotainment screen. Instead, a smartphone cradle is installed. This saves on costs but reduces the functionality and size of the infotainment area.

This specification also removes the electric windows from the rear doors, with manual options instead. These specifications are mirrored in some other budget models. Yet they are a noticeable reminder of the low-price specification for those unable to afford the next step up.

Practically practical

The e-C3 comes with a 310-litre boot, a decent size and plenty for a small family. However, the car’s SUV nature does not extend to the loading space. No flat floor can make it more difficult to use.

In terms of power, Citroën launched the e-C3 with a 44kWh battery, capable of producing 113hp. The smaller battery pack means the car is lighter, but has a lower driving range of 320km. To mitigate this, the model has a 100kW DC charging capacity. This means its battery can go from 20% to 80% in 26 minutes.

However, the model will be more suited to town and city driving rather than long-distance trips. Citroën has limited the e-C3 to a top speed of 132kph, with the 83kW motor producing a 0-100km time of 11 seconds. This is not a performance car and is not intended to be.

Comfort mode

Citroën’s vehicles have always been known for their comfortable ride, and the e-C3 does not disappoint. Where some BEVs have stiffer suspension settings to offset the vehicle weight, the e-C3 features the brand’s advanced comfort suspension. Hydraulic components act to soften the ride, allowing the model to soak up bumps.

This does provide a certain amount of roll in the corners, however, especially with the vehicle now sitting higher. It is also susceptible to gusts of wind, with its flatter and boxier side profile.

Yet the e-C3 is a good car to drive. The smaller steering wheel is not an issue, and the car turns into corners with ease. In a town or city environment, the power limitations are not noticeable, whereas the handling potential of the model is. On faster roads, the e-C3 performs well but is not exciting.

Overall, the Citroën e-C3 is a good entry-level BEV. With prices comparable to petrol and diesel models, it can help introduce buyers to the technology.

View the Autovista Group dashboard, which benchmarks the Citroën e-C3 in Austria, France, Italy and the UK. The interactive dashboard presents new prices, forecast residual values, and SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) analysis.

This content is brought to you by Autovista24.

On song BYD dominates record-breaking Chinese EV market in September

Chinese electric vehicle (EV) deliveries soared in September, as BYD continued its domestic market domination. José Pontes, data director at EV Volumes, looks into the figures with Autovista24 special content editor Phil Curry.

Registrations of EVs, including battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) set a new record in China in September. More than 1.1 million units were delivered in the month, a 51% increase year on year. This is even more spectacular when considering the overall market improvement in the month was just 5%.

Growth came from both powertrain types. BEVs were up 29% in September, to around 644,000 units, while PHEVs jumped 97% to around 479,000 units. This was the fourth month in a row that PHEVs broke their volume record.

September’s strong results saw EVs take a 53% share of the overall Chinese new-car market. BEVs alone accounted for 31% of all deliveries. In terms of EV share, BEVs held 57% of registrations in the month, while PHEVs had 32%. The remaining 11%  share was captured by extended-range models (EREVs).

In the first nine months of 2024, around 7.3 million EVs have been delivered to customers, a significant rise over the 5.4 million units that were registered in the same period during 2023.

Looking at the market share between January and September, EVs held 47%, with 27% of this belonging to BEVs. Compared with 12 months prior, the 2023 plug-in share was 37%, with BEVs making up 25% overall. This means that while BEVs have only improved market share by two percentage points (pp), PHEVs are growing faster. The technology’s share increased by around 8pp year on year.

With this growth, the year should end with EVs holding around 50% of the market. This means the push for full electrification by around 2030 is still heading in the right direction.

EVs lead overall

China’s overall best-seller chart saw EVs take the top six places, with the first internal-combustion engine (ICE) model being the Nissan Sylphy. It took seventh with 33,000 units.

With eight plug-in models in the overall top 10, the market was led by electric powertrains. Furthermore, six of these models belonged to BYD, highlighting the carmaker’s domination in its domestic market.

In the EV-only chart, BYD placed 11 models in the top 20, as its run of success continued. This included the top spot for the Song, in its BEV and PHEV versions. The midsize SUV scored 57,022 registrations in September, with 7,024 units coming from the BEV version alone.

The Song is uncontested in the Chinese market, with a gap of over 8,800 units to second place. Whether it will continue to run unchallenged at the head of the table all depends on its competition, including that from internal sources.

However, with competitive pricing, it is still achieving over 50,000 sales a month on average, a necessary threshold.

With 48,202 units delivered in September, the Tesla Model Y took second position in China. This was the model’s best month of the year, and it remains relevant in the country’s market. The brand was the only foreign carmaker to appear in the Chinese top 20, but there may be a challenge ahead. Domestic manufacturers are launching cars that could prove serious competition to both the Tesla Model Y and the Model 3, namely the Nio Onvo L60 and Xpeng Mona M03.

BYD takes charge

Four BYD models filled the next four spots, with the Seagull leading this charge in third. The model posted a year-best performance in September, with 47,915 deliveries. Part of its production is now being diverted to export markets, yet demand is seemingly growing in China.

The Seagull could become the best-selling BYD model globally. The A-segment model is also expected to place second in the 2025 EV table, both globally and in its domestic market

Meanwhile, the Qin L achieved a record result in September, with 39,490 deliveries in fourth. Its production ramp-up is continuing, and it is not hurting registrations of the Qin Plus, on which the BEV is based on.

BYD has succeeded with the Qin and its related models. Combining deliveries of the L, together with the Qin Plus, the Seal 06 and the Destroyer 05, both of which are alternative trim lines, the brand achieved 135,625 registrations in China. This is more than the global sales of the Tesla Model Y.

The Qin Plus ended September in fifth position, with 38,874 units. Of this, 12,213 deliveries were all-electric models. The Seal 06 took sixth place, ending the brands consecutive streak with 37,155 units. BYD also took eighth place with the Yuan Plus (25,576 units) and 10th position with the Song L (25,308 units).

BYD also placed three models in the bottom half of the top 20. The Destroyer 05 ended in 13th (20,106 units), while the Yuan Up took17th (16,018 units) and the Dolphin finished in 18th place (15,290 units).

With over half the table comprised of BYD models, it is clear the brand is successful in its domestic market. It also seems to have settled on the strategy of producing more good-quality models that will sell in lower volumes, to beat the might of Tesla and its two major vehicles.

Notable performances

One of the biggest surprises in September’s top 10 was the presence of the Wuling Mini EV, which took seventh place. With 28,918 registrations, this was the model’s best performance since February 2023. Highlighting Wuling’s strong month in China, the larger Bingo also had a year-best result, with 24,063 units securing 11th place.

Another model on the rise is the Li Auto L6, which was 9th, with a record 25,393 deliveries. The smaller of Li Auto’s lineup is also the brand’s newest model, so the midsize SUV could start to secure a frequent presence in the top 10.

The Tesla Model 3 took 12th position with 23,998 registrations, its best performance in two years. It appears the refreshed model is starting to enjoy some success in China. However, this is still not at the level of its stablemate, the Model Y.

A surprising result was the 16th spot of the Geely Panda Mini, which saw a record 17,551 deliveries in the month. With the good results of the Wuling Mini EV, Changan Lumin (12,284 units), and FAW’s Bestune Xiaoma (9,615 units), small city cars had a great month in September.

Another record performance was produced by the Luxeed S7, which made its debut in the top 20, taking the final place in the table. It secured 14,647 deliveries to hold the spot, as Chery and Huawei’s partnership begins to blossom.

Other noticeable achievements

Outside the top 20, there were several impressive performances, as new and established models fought for position.

Amongst the startup brands, Aion came closest to the top 20, with its Y crossover finishing September ended in 21st position (14,612 units). Geely’s Galaxy E5 crossover also just missed a place in the top 20. Its 14,250 units led it to 22nd in only its second month on the market.

Meanwhile, in its fifth month on the market, Chery’s Fengyun T9 PHEV crossover delivered 11,156 units. Xpeng impressed with its Mona M03, recording 10,023 registrations in its first month on the market.

Finally, the only other foreign brand than Tesla to make a mark in China’s EV market during September was Volkswagen. Its ID.3 had a year-best monthly total of 9,650 units.

Tesla pulls back

September’s results did little to change the year-to-date table at the end of the month. The BYD Song continued to look secure in the top spot, with 467,750 units, over 105,000 deliveries ahead of the BYD Qin Plus in second (362,721 units).

The competition for second and third places is closer, however. The Tesla Model Y is only 25,073 units behind the Qin Plus, with its September tally ending at 337,648 deliveries.

Fourth was held by the BYD Seagull (297,395 units), which lost some ground to the Tesla Model Y in September. The BYD Yuan Plus is over 100,000 deliveries behind in fifth (197,099 units), with the Destroyer 05 in sixth (157,629 units).

The result for the Wuling Mini EV in September saw it jump two places in the annual table. It sat in seventh, with 154,432 registrations. Its progression came at the expense of the Aito M7 (151,378 units) and the BYD Han (145,571 units), which dropped to eighth and ninth respectively.

The Wuling Bingo climbed to 10th position (128,703 units) while the biggest mover was the BYD Qin L, which jumped six positions. The model took 11th place, thanks to 126,265 registrations between January and September.

Meanwhile, Li Auto saw its L6 model gain two spots. It ended September in 14th place across the first nine months of the year, with 114,356 deliveries.

BYD also had cause to celebrate, with the Seal 06 joining the yearly registrations table in 18th position (99,386 units), giving the Chinese carmaker nine models in the top 20, cementing its popularity in its domestic market.

Go to Autovista24 for related articles.

The economy behind large batteries in electric vehicles – is bigger better?

EV batteries

As carmakers chase greater electric vehicle (EV) ranges, batteries keep getting bigger. But do these larger energy-storage units pay off? Autovista Group experts explore the economies of large batteries with Autovista24 editor Tom Geggus.

As EVs transition into the mass market, the economies of bigger batteries need to be considered. When does the size of the energy-storage unit affect performance and pricing? What is the role of plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) in the transition to battery-electric vehicles (BEVs)? Are carmakers on the right track to push EVs into the mass market?

Autovista Group experts set out to answer these questions in a new webinar. The panel included Dr Christof Engelskirchen, chief economist at Autovista Group, Dr Anne Lange, director of research and innovation at Autovista Group, Christoph Ruhland, director of business development at Autovista Group, and Christian Schneider, director of content at EV Volumes.

Are bigger batteries better?

Between 2021 and 2024, Germany saw the average WLTP range of a BEV increase by 28% to 375km. While this meant greater distances without the need to plug in, drivers also benefitted from faster charging. The average DC charging speed increased by 25% over the same period to 131kW.

‘Range anxiety is not a big issue anymore with the current generation of EVs,’ said Schneider. ‘We see a small shift at the moment from range anxiety to charging anxiety. The charging infrastructure across Europe has grown quite a lot in the past, but it is still maybe struggling a little bit in some regions.’

So, while bigger batteries allow drivers to go further between charging stops, infrastructure still needs to be available. On top of this, faster EV charging means less time spent at a public plug-in point on a journey.

The economies of size

Engelskirchen calculated the savings associated with long-range BEVs, by comparing variants of the Tesla Model Y and Volvo EX30. This meant measuring the annual costs associated with all-electric cars on a 20,000km, three-year lease.

In Germany, a new long-range Tesla Model Y currently costs 9% more than the standard-range version. This means an absolute difference of €3,361, but what does that pay for? While the standard model is advertised with a WLTP range of 455km, the long-range version should reach 600km.

The Volvo EX30 is a more affordable BEV, but the price differential is greater between the two versions. The long-range model costs 13% more (€4,370) than the standard EX30. This puts the WLTP range up to 475km from 337km. But is there a financial advantage to paying for more kWh?

‘With a longer-range vehicle, you will be charging less publicly. Public charging is a bit more expensive. This means you are going to save €59 per year,’ Engelskirchen explained. However, this is dependent on the usage scenario. If a person makes more long journeys, they are likely to make more stops at public charging points.

Remarketing bigger batteries

So, how do larger batteries influence pricing in the used-car market? Using portal data of models at 10,000km in Germany, Lange revealed that BEVs with greater energy capacities retained more value.

BEVs with large batteries also sell more quickly. These models spend fewer days in stock compared to those with smaller energy-storage capabilities. For example, all-electric cars with a capacity of up to 50kWh spent 109 days in stock. Meanwhile, those above the 80kWh mark needed 95 days on average to sell.

However, Lange highlighted an important caveat. ‘It is quite hard to isolate the effect of battery size,’ she said. ‘Larger batteries will always be built into larger vehicle segments and will usually have better equipment, better trims, and higher horsepower.’

Plug-in hybrid highs

PHEVs have also seen battery capacities increase, alongside growing global demand. Global sales of the powertrain have accelerated, with EV Volumes forecasting continued growth in the years ahead. This trend is being driven by China, where demand is so great, it is dictating global figures.

However, this demand is not mirrored across the world. France represents a trend occurring in many European markets, with PHEV shares set to decline as more BEVs are adopted. One major exception to this steady descent is Germany, where the plug-in hybrid share dropped rapidly in 2023 after the German government withdrew purchase incentives.

Used PHEVs continue to sit behind internal-combustion engine models, but ahead of BEVs when it comes to value retention. The powertrain can also be expected to retrain a greater level of residual value if they are fitted with larger batteries. However, it is still important to recognise that bigger, more expensive models are likely to feature more energy storage.

Are carmakers on the right track?

So, will batteries continue to increase in size despite the drive towards the mass market? Ruhland pointed out that new and upcoming EVs are continuing the trend towards larger batteries. For example, the VinFast VF9 is expected to arrive in Europe with a battery capacity of 123kWh.

Meanwhile, the Denza D9 DM-i PHEV will feature a 40kWh energy-storage unit. Before long, there will be even more plug-in hybrids with batteries of this size, capable of electric ranges up to 200km.

To illustrate just how far EVs have come, Ruhland highlighted the journey of the Nissan Leaf. The BEV was first mass-produced in 2010 with a 24kWh battery, almost half of what some upcoming PHEVs will feature.

In the last 14 years, the EV landscape has changed almost beyond recognition. Where there was once a handful of plug-in models, a wide range of different BEVs and PHEVs now exist. Behind them stands an array of emerging carmakers.

The defining choice ahead of them is whether to put bigger batteries in their EVs or to optimise performance. By focusing on efficiency, OEMs could reach respectable ranges while also delivering cars with enjoyable driving dynamics. This will also keep costs from climbing further, meaning more EVs make it to the mass market.

If you enjoyed The economy behind large batteries in electric vehicles - is bigger better?, make sure to register for Autovista Group’s next free webinar. Blessing or curse: The impact of EU tariffs on BEVs made in China, will take place on 7 November 2024 at 9.30am BST / 10.30am CET. Find out more and register for your place today.more and register for your place today.

This content is brought to you by Autovista24.

Is Europe’s EV decline impacting market forecasts?

EV Volumes

With Europe’s light vehicle market slowing, how have electric vehicle (EV) forecasts been affected? Neil King, head of forecasting at EV Volumes, presents the latest outlook with Autovista24 special content editor Phil Curry.

Europe’s light-vehicle market, made up of passenger cars and light-commercial vehicles (LCVs), has experienced a rollercoaster ride this year. Major markets across the continent enjoyed relatively consistent growth following the end of the supply-chain crisis in August 2022.

However, this year has seen instability, with strong overall increases offset by large declines. With high interest rates and the cost-of-living crisis, the automotive market is in a state of flux.

EV Volumes has reduced its forecast for Europe’s light-vehicle market in 2024. It now expects growth of 2.4% across the continent by the end of the year, down from the 2.6% forecast in June 2024.

At almost 15.1 million units, this falls far short of the 18 million light vehicles registered in Europe in 2019. Moreover, EV Volumes does not see the European market returning to this level during the current forecast horizon, up to 2035.

Difficult forecasts for EVs

Europe’s EV market, made up of battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), has seen a significant slowdown. The electric light-vehicle market saw deliveries in Europe increase by 17.4% in 2023, with 3.15 million new units taking to roads across the continent.

However, some major markets changed their incentive schemes in the past 12 months. Germany ended all subsidies by the end of 2023. Meanwhile, France reduced the number of eligible models based on new carbon footprint figures. Even EV-friendly Norway has ended its VAT exemption for EVs.

Although Italy introduced an incentive scheme in May 2024, the funds dedicated to BEVs were totally depleted within a day. This caused a spike in passenger-car BEV registrations during June, with figures having returned to normal since July.

On a positive note, countries such as Spain and Poland are considering the revision of EV purchase subsidies. More affordable BEVs such as the Citroen e-C3 are rolling out too. Additionally, global EV-leader BYD has expansion plans for the region, as do other Chinese OEMs.

Provisional tariffs impact

This expansion is despite the EU imposing provisional import duties on BEVs manufactured in China.

Imposed on 5 July, the tariffs remain provisional and are subject to change. Discussions with the Chinese authorities are ongoing, hoping to ‘explore possible ways to resolve the issues identified in a WTO-compatible manner.’

Furthermore, OEMs have only had to provide bank guarantees at this stage. No additional duties are to be collected until a final agreement becomes definitive in November.

So far, only Tesla has announced a modest price increase of about €1,500 for the China-sourced Tesla Model 3. Meanwhile, both Nio and Xpeng stated they will not change prices in the EU. BYD is expected to absorb the tariffs without increasing prices.

MG-parent SAIC stated that it has sufficient stock to supply the market until the tariffs become definitive in November. Finally, falling lithium prices are also allowing OEMs to put off price increases of China-built BEVs.

EV Volumes assumes that prices will largely be unchanged until the tariffs become definitive in November, and these could yet be applied at a lower rate too. The impact on the 2024 BEV sales forecast for Europe is therefore negligible. However, it has considered price changes and demand elasticities, adjusting the forecast accordingly for 2025 and beyond.

EV declines ahead

Considering these market trends and tariffs, EV Volumes forecasts that European EV sales will fall 2.5% year on year in 2024. This equates to 3.07 million unit deliveries.

This equates to only 20.4% of all light-vehicle sales. This is lower than the 21.4% share achieved in 2023, and even the 20.7% gained in 2022.

There is a high risk that the EV share does not even exceed 20% this year. Volumes of BEVs are forecast to decline 3.5% year on year, with the technology accounting for 67.8% of all EV deliveries.

However, EV Volumes only forecasts a modest 0.2% decline in PHEV sales. This is because they offer a stepping stone to full electrification. Additionally, incentive changes mean BEVs have lost their price advantage in major markets like Germany.

Volumes to drop in forecasts

In terms of electric volume and share expectations, EV Volumes has lowered its forecasts for this year. This is partly because of a reduced outlook for total European light-vehicle sales. However, it also reflects weaker EV adoption in multiple countries and the lacklustre recovery of Germany’s BEV market.

Electric vehicles are also forecast to see slightly lower market shares in the years ahead. This follows the reduction or complete withdrawal of incentives as governments contend with high debt levels. Alongside this, more countries are pushing back on the EU zero-emission mandate for 2035.

Compared to the previous forecast, the European market share of BEVs and PHEVs is now expected to reach 24.2% in 2025 (was 25.9%), 61.1% in 2030 (was 62.3%) and 93.4% in 2035 (was 94.1%).

The forecast for 2035 includes some tolerance for timing interpretations of the zero-emission vehicle mandate. It also allows for exemptions for internal-combustion engine vehicles that may be deemed unsuitable for full electrification.

However, EV Volumes foresees a return to registrations growth next year, with EVs predicted to gain a 24.2% share. This is thanks to the rollout of new EVs and the implementation of more ambitious CO2 emission targets for new cars and vans in the EU, set at 93.6g/km for 2025-2029.

Tough times for electric LCVs

LCVs still lag far behind in electrifying, but a 49% growth in electric deliveries last year is encouraging, especially compared to the 16% growth for passenger cars.

High prices for EVs in this market, compared to diesel models, are still inhibiting. However, key new products such as the Ford Transit, Renault Trafic, and VW Transporter BEVs will help the market. So too will upgraded versions of the small, medium, and large electric vans offered by Stellantis brands Fiat, Peugeot, Citroen, and Opel/Vauxhall.

EV Volumes now forecasts that the EV share of the LCV market will decrease from 7.5% in 2023 to 6.6% in 2024. This will be followed by an increase to 9.8% in 2025, and 51.6% in 2030. Long term, the 2035 ZEV mandate will further accelerate the transition to pure-electric LCVs.

The forecast assumes that all Western and Central European markets will follow the directive, allowing for some exemptions and grace periods. Therefore, the ZEV share is unlikely to reach 100% in 2035, but EV Volumes forecasts a 92.6% share, compared to 93.5% for passenger cars.

Go to Autovista24 for related articles.

Balancing the price and performance of EV batteries

EV batteries

Vehicle manufacturers have been increasing the size of electric vehicle (EV) batteries, but how does this balance with pricing? Autovista24 editor Tom Geggus will examine the price-performance conundrum with Autovista Group experts in an upcoming webinar.

As one of the most expensive components in an EV, batteries impact pricing, performance and purchasing behaviour. This creates a price-performance conundrum for vehicle manufacturers. As battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) need to transition into the mass market, this issue is of critical importance.

Autovista Group experts will explore this delicate balance in a new webinar: The economy behind large batteries in electric vehicles – is bigger better? Register now for this free event on 26 September 2024 at 9.30am BST / 10.30am CET.

Register now

An expert panel 

Following the success of the previous Autovista Group webinar: How to recharge Europe’s battery-electric economy, this panel of automotive experts will feature: 

  • Dr Christof Engelskirchen, Autovista Group chief economist 
  • Tom Geggus, Autovista24 editor 
  • Dr Anne Lange, Autovista Group director of research and innovation 
  • Christoph Ruhland, Autovista Group business development director
  • Christian Schneider, EV Volumes director of content.

These Autovista Group experts will take a deep dive into the economy of bigger batteries, exploring three business-critical topics: 

  1. BEV batteries only seem to be getting larger. But price remains a big barrier on the road to the mass market. Do greater battery capacities and ranges pay off? 
  2. Plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) now boast increasingly large batteries. This is giving the powertrain a second wind in many major markets around the world. But will this success continue, and what does it mean for the transition to BEVs?
  3. Are vehicle manufacturers on the right track to deliver BEVs and PHEVs to the mass market? How do new launches compare to what is already present on the market? 

Who is the webinar for?

Anybody with a vested interest in EV technology will benefit from the market intelligence presented in this webinar, particularly: 

  • Product managers for vehicle manufacturers involved in portfolio planning, sales or marketing 
  • Remarketing managers seeking to address the price-performance conundrum 
  • Companies that hold EV asset risks
  • Fleet managers who wish to understand the impact of larger batteries on their vehicles from a user-convenience perspective 
  • Individuals or companies providing professional services to the EV industry.

Three takeaways from the batteries webinar

Though the discussion will touch on several major talking points around BEV batteries, attendees can expect to gain greater insight on: 

  • What vehicle manufacturers need to bear in mind when thinking about the mass market and the importance of EV technology 
  • Whether bigger batteries really are justified 
  • How new and recently launched BEV and PHEV models differ from what is currently sold in the market, highlighting comparative advantages for future releases 

Unravel the price-performance conundrum of EV batteries by attending the free Autovista Group webinar: The economy behind large batteries in electric vehicles – is bigger better? It takes place on 26 September 2024 at 9.30am BST / 10.30am CET. Find out more and register for your place today.

This content is brought to you by Autovista24.

Which EV manufacturers performed the best in 2024 so far?

EV Volumes

Which electric vehicle (EV) manufacturers stood out in the first half of 2024? EV Volumes founder, Roland Irle, reviews the most successful OEMs in the electric light-vehicle market with Autovista24 editor Tom Geggus.

Covering both passenger cars and light-commercial vehicles (LCVs), the global light-vehicle market saw mixed performances from EV manufacturers in the first half of 2024. One of the most noticeable trends was that OEM success followed regional growth patterns.

Many Chinese vehicle makers recorded impressive growth between January and June. Compared to the restrained results of most Western OEMs, the likes of Geely, Changan, Li Auto, Seres (Aito) and Chery did particularly well.

BYD’s year-on-year volume growth slowed to 26%, compared to the 62% surge it recorded last year. Despite this, the manufacturer remained the global EV-market leader.

Its product portfolio featured 37 nameplates for sale in the first half of 2024. This included battery-electric vehicles (BEVs), plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) and extended-range electric vehicles (EREVs). However, BYD is not yet present across all vehicle segments and it does not offer mini-EVs. It is also late to the EREV party.

Source: EV Volumes. Note: Light vehicles include passenger cars and LCVs. EVs include BEVs and PHEVs.
Source: EV Volumes. Note: Light vehicles include passenger cars and LCVs. EVs include BEVs and PHEVs.

BYD is also China’s largest OEM by production and sales volumes, despite only offering BEV and PHEV models. It sold roughly 161,000 vehicles outside China, and only some 17,000 in Western and Central Europe. South America, ASEAN, the Middle East and Russia were BYD’s largest export regions, with combined sales of roughly 114,000 units.

Tesla manages to hold on

Tesla was still the leading OEM in terms of global BEV sales between January and June 2024, but only by a small margin. Its deliveries declined by 7% year on year, which is the first time this has happened in this time period. Tesla’s volumes in China, Western Europe, North America, as well as Australia and New Zealand all declined compared to the first half of 2023.

The BEV builder is facing fierce pricing competition in China, while its refreshed Model 3 suffers rollout delays. The base model of the electric sedan was also not eligible for grants under the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) as its batteries were built in China. Going forward, the batteries for this variant will be US-sourced.

Monthly volume levels of Tesla models are often erratic, indicating changes in logistics and re-routing of supply, in order to retain grants and avoid tariffs.

Likewise, Volkswagen (VW) Group felt its grip on the global EV market slacken between January and June. It was only able to record 6% year-on-year sales growth, while the global EV market was up 22%.

Audi and Cupra were responsible for the OEM’s growth, while its other brands recorded declines. However, the opposite was true in China, where the VW brand continues to participate in the ongoing price war but Audi and Porsche do not. The Cupra brand is not sold in China.

Geely’s EV gains

Geely was a big winner in the first half of this year, tripling its global EV sector share. Its Chinese brands saw sales increase by 68% year on year.

Its European affiliate Volvo has also grown faster than the stagnating European EV market, where the Swedish brand sells most of its EVs. The new Volvo EX30 BEV was an instant hit with some 45,000 units sold in the first half. Approximately 39,000 of them were sold in Europe alone.

Geely, including Volvo, Polestar and Smart (formerly owned by Mercedes-Benz) exported roughly 118,000 units from China in the first half of 2024. Some 98,000 of these units were sold in Europe.

Of these European sales, roughly 93,000 were China-made models from Volvo, Polestar, Smart and Lotus. Import tariffs on China’s EV exports to Europe will limit this potential for growth. This is unless they are exempted from tariff increases or production is relocated to the region.

Jumping 32% in the first half of 2024, GM’s sales grew more quickly than at the same point last year. Several of its new models on the new Ultium battery platform are gaining traction in the US.

In China, the Buick Velite 6 BEV (not built on the Ultium platform) recorded roughly 33,000 sales. This is a new record for Buick in the region, beating all other previous model performances. However, the overall result for GM was dragged down by the phase-out of the Chevy Bolt, including the EUV derivative.

Most of the manufacturer’s recent growth can be attributed to its Chinese affiliate, Wuling. Co-owned by SAIC, the brand has been expanding and upgrading its portfolio. Dwindling sales of the Honguang Mini-EV were offset by the larger Wuling Bingo and the Starlight PHEV. This large sedan comes with a starting price as low as ¥89,000 ($12,400).

Stagnating market affect

Stellantis saw its EV deliveries decline by 9% thanks to its high exposure to Europe’s stagnating EV market. Subsidy cuts have affected sales of lower-priced EVs, an important sector for Stellantis. The OEM’s deliveries in Europe fell by 20%, while sales of Jeep, Dodge and Chrysler models in the US and Canada rose by 35%.

BMW Group sold 13% more EVs in the first half of this year. Mini recorded heavy year-on-year losses of 46%, while the BMW brand saw solid gains of 20%, with particular success in Europe. The German marque sold the second-largest number of EVs in Europe in the first half.

In the last two years, Changan has successfully launched three new brands, Avatr, Deepal and Qiyuan, also known as Nevo. The OEM has a total of 12 models positioned from the entry-premium level upwards, including EREV powertrains.

This effort has paid off. Changan’s sales increased by 87% in the first half, exceeding the 60% growth recorded at the same point last year. The company has plans to enter the Europe market.

Flat sales for Hyundai Motor Company

Hyundai Motor Company saw its sales stay flat in the first half. However, Kia was able to make slight gains over Hyundai. Launched in the summer of 2023, the Kia EV9 recorded some 19,000 sales in the first six months of 2024.

Otherwise, model volume changes were small. The only exceptions were the Kia Bongo and Hyundai Porter, which saw the end of generous electric LCV grants in South Korea. This resulted in a loss of some 17,500 sales. Dropping deliveries in Europe and South Korea were balanced by good growth in the US. In China, the OEM sold only around 3,000 units of the Kia EV5.

Li Auto, known for its large range-extender-equipped SUVs, saw continued sales growth in the first half. Following the launch of the L6 and increasing sales in Russia, the manufacturer managed to record 14,400 unit sales.

Ageing model lineup

GAC Aion’s brands lost momentum due to an ageing model lineup. Mercedes-Benz’s growth was hampered by volume losses in China and the phase-out of proprietary Smart models.

Compared to a weak first half of 2023, Seres saw sales grow by 515% between January and June 2024. Aito’s two new large SUVs featuring EREV technology, the M7 and M9, generated most of this growth. Aito seems set to follow in the footsteps of Li Auto.

Toyota, the world’s largest vehicle OEM, sold roughly 161,000 EV units in the first half. However, this only made up approximately 3% of its total sales. However, the vehicle manufacturer did record healthy year-on-year growth.

While SAIC recorded growth, this fell below expectations. It exported 58% of its volume, roughly 89,000 units. Approximately 56,000 of these models were sold in Europe, 3,000 units behind the first half of 2023.

Chery saw its sales increase with new, more premium entries. However, the OEM’s large export ambitions have not materialised, at least not for its EVs.

Incentives impact

The Renault-Nissan Mitsubishi Alliance experienced difficulties in the first half. The OEM group recorded weak EV sales in Japan. This followed a phase-out of the all-electric Renault Zoe before the Renault 5 and Renault 4 models could be handed the baton.

Purchase incentives are now no longer available for the Dacia Spring in France as it is built in China. This resulted in a drop of roughly 12,000 units, or 80% of its sales in the country.

Dongfeng recorded some 127,400 EV sales across its nine brands, resulting in healthy growth in the first half. The state-owned OEM is a leading manufacturer of internal-combustion engine (ICE) cars and trucks, although, its EV branch appears dysfunctional.

Only 4% of Ford’s total global sales in the first half came from EVs. Meanwhile, Nio, Leapmotor and XPeng all recorded healthy growth as well. However, sales volumes were still far from the 400,000-a-year viability threshold.

Leading EV deliveries

Models from Tesla and BYD led the global EV market in the first half of 2024. The Tesla Model Y was the world’s best-selling vehicle across all categories, including ICE vehicles. However, its figures were down between January and June, particularly in Europe.

One reason for this was increased competition in the BEV market. This includes the Volvo EX30, the BMW iX1 and iX2, as well as the Hyundai Kona. Even though these models are smaller than the Model Y, they offer an attractive alternative for buyers not concerned about size. If Tesla offered a model in the C-SUV space, this could help the OEM maintain market share.

With the Model Y now five years into its life cycle, a refreshed version, codename Juniper, is around the corner. It will likely produce the same improvements as the Model 3’s refresh. Many will wait to buy a new Model Y or go for a Model 3 in the meantime.

Production of the Model Y in Berlin suffered three unplanned shutdowns in the first half of 2024. This was due to acts of sabotage at the Berlin factory as well as shipping issues in the Red Sea.

The network of high-power fast chargers is improving. Additionally, Tesla grants access to their Superchargers for many other brands now. One of Tesla’s unique strengths is wearing thinner now.doption in mature markets.

Source: EV Volumes. Note: Light vehicles include passenger cars and LCVs. EVs include BEVs and PHEVs.
Source: EV Volumes. Note: Light vehicles include passenger cars and LCVs. EVs include BEVs and PHEVs.

Refreshed results for BYD Song

The BYD Song PHEV was not only the second-best-selling vehicle in China but was also the second-best-selling EV worldwide. The midsized SUV features BYD’s DM-i PHEV technology and starts from ¥136,000. Thanks to its recent refresh, sales increased again in the first half of 2024.

Deliveries of the Tesla Model 3 fell by 12% in the first half. Supply of the enhanced BEV was constrained in the US in the first quarter. Additionally, the base variant did not qualify for IRA grants due to its China-sourced battery.

Sales of the all-electric sedan grew by 41% in Europe but dropped by 22% in China and 36 % in the US. Model 3s sold in Europe are made in China. This indicates that Tesla prioritised European deliveries ahead of the implementation of new import tariffs. To manoeuvre around these new duties, Tesla will need to re-locate volume production for Europe to Berlin.

The BYD Seagull BEV, known as the Dolphin Mini in export markets, is the OEM’s smallest and most affordable model. Starting at ¥70,000, the Seagull undercuts the BYD Dolphin by ¥30,000 and cannibalises sales from its larger sibling.

In fifth, the BYD Yuan Plus BEV, known as the Atto 3 in export markets, saw sales decline by 20%. The Yuan Plus continues to lead the compact SUV segment in China. The model could take this title for the third year running, but it does now face fresh competition. The entire segment is also stagnating as buyers upgrade to larger SUVs which offer more innovations and EREV variants.

BYD’s warship lineup

The BYD Qin Plus DM-I was one of the best-selling models in China, leading the midsize-sedan segment in the first half. It was joined by its sibling from BYD’s warship line-up, the Destroyer 05 PHEV. Both models share the same architecture, powertrain and batteries.

The Qin Plus starts at ¥110,000 in China, while the Destroyer is available from ¥120,000. The model’s main export market is Russia, having delivered 2,500 units in the country in the first half.

Designed in cooperation with Huawei, the Aito Wenjie M7 is a large SUV from the Seres Group. Aito’s model lineup is similar to Li Auto’s, with a focus on large SUVs powered by EREV technology.

The BYD Dolphin finished eighth in the first half of 2024, losing sales to its Seagull sibling. Approximately 30% of Dolphin production is exported, mostly to South America and ASEAN countries. Sales in Europe reached 4,100 units between January and June this year.

The Hongguang Mini EV continues declining from its peak of over 420,000 sales in 2021 and 2022. New competition from the likes of the Changan Lumin and the Geely Panda took its toll. Buyers are also upgrading from mini cars to small cars, such as the BYD Seagull and the Wuling Bingo.

But which models and manufacturers will take home the EV-sales crown at the end of 2024? Keep up to date with the latest data-driven insights from EV Volumes on Autovista24. In the meantime, find out whether the global EV market really did slow down in the first half of 2024.

Go to Autovista24 for related articles.

Is the global EV market slowing down?

EV Volumes

New electric vehicle (EV) sales across the world continued to grow across the first half of 2024. But did the market show signs of slowing? EV Volumes founder, Roland Irle, explores the progress of plug-ins with Autovista24 editor Tom Geggus.

The global new light-vehicle market, including passenger cars and light-commercial vehicles, grew by 3.7% in the first half of 2024. Within this, combined battery-electric vehicle (BEV) and plug-in hybrid (PHEV) sales increased by 22% year on year to 1.35 million units.

As confirmed by EV Volumes data, deliveries of new EVs did grow relatively consistently between January and June 2024. Because of the Chinese New Year, February was the only month not to record double-digit growth in the first half.

Source: EV Volumes. Note: Light vehicles include passenger cars and LCVs. EVs include BEVs and PHEVs.

This consistency and competitively high level of growth appears promising at first. However, it does represent a slowdown from the same point last year. In the first half of 2023, the global EV market saw deliveries climb by 35% year on year.

Uneven EV growth

Growth has also become more uneven across the world. Despite accumulating economic woes, China continues to drive the global EV market in terms of volume. The country made up 60% of global electric vehicle sales in the first half of the year. Combined, BEVs and PHEVs represented 46% of the Chinese new-car market in June.

New plug-in volumes also outpaced the wider light vehicle market in China. EVs surged 31% year-on-year in the first half of 2024, while overall sales increased by 2%.

Over-capacity is a common challenge in the country, which means prices are coming down. Growth is particularly strong for both premium segments and extended-range electric vehicles (EREV). This powertrain uses a small internal-combustion engine generator to charge the battery instead of driving the wheels. Like BEVs and PHEVs, EREVs can be charged via the mains.

global EV market
Source: EV Volumes. Note: Light vehicles include passenger cars and LCVs. EVs include BEVs and PHEVs.

Sales stagnation in Europe

Europe is continuing to see EV deliveries stagnate following the exceptional growth of 2020 and 2021. While the overall new light-vehicle market continues to recover, growing by 5.2% in the first half, EV sales only increased by 1%. This follows many European countries reducing or removing purchase subsidies, first for PHEVs and then for BEVs.

In the US, the effects of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) are wearing off, following a steep growth in EV sales in recent years. On top of this, there are also uncertainties and challenges surrounding the eligibility of different vehicles for grants. The first half of 2024 was characterised by delays of not only vehicles but also batteries, with OEMs having to re-route supply chains to comply with IRA requirements.

EV deliveries in the region jumped by 12% in the first six months of the year, ahead of a 3.2% improvement for overall light-vehicle deliveries.

Elsewhere around the world, some EV markets recorded triple-digit growth, albeit from low bases. The most significant markets in terms of volumes and growth were Brazil, India, Thailand, Turkey, Mexico, Indonesia, Taiwan and Malaysia. However, two of the largest markets in this group, Japan and South Korea, appear to be going into reverse.

Are EV sales really slowing?

So, is the global EV market crashing? Not quite. While growth is slowing, this follows the rapid plug-in increases in both volume and share in 2021 and 2022. But global EV sales are still increasing, up by 22% in the first half of 2024, outperforming the total market growth of 3.7% by a wide margin.

In Europe, EV sales are stagnating, however, following the exceptional growth of 2020 and 2021. Looking back, there is the 2020 95gCO2/km New European Driving Cycle (NEDC) mandate and green recovery support measures to consider.

Introduced during the pandemic, this created an unprecedented EV boom during 2020 and 2021. Volume increases by 136% and 68% year on year respectively. This means CO2 emission targets were easily reached.

Europe’s EV demand outstripped supply, as prices were pushed up and discounts disappeared, creating generous margins for some models. However, the pandemic and its associated costs stressed public budgets. This pushed funds for green projects towards EV charging infrastructure, which remains insufficient.

Grant effect

From 2022 onwards, EV grants in Europe were gradually reduced, first for PHEVs, and then for BEVs. More expensive EVs also saw greater restrictions around subsidies.

By 2024, at least six countries phased out direct purchase incentives. This includes high-volume markets such as Germany, Norway, Sweden, the UK, Italy and Switzerland. However, annual road tax exemptions have remained intact in many locations.

As order backlogs cleared, supply caught up with slower demand. This has hailed a turning point, as a buyers’ market returned. This put margins under considerable pressure, with many EV models starting to lose money.

Having comfortably met the European CO2 mandates between 2020 and 2024, there is currently little incentive for carmakers to push for more EV deliveries. However, this will change in 2025 when fleet emissions will need to be 15% lower than in 2021. Therefore, efforts are better saved for this upcoming challenge.

What comes next?

EV Volumes expects new EV sales to reach a total of 16.5 million units this year worldwide. This would equate to an increase of 16% compared to 2023. Broken down by region, China is forecast to account for 10 million units, Europe 3.3 million units, North America 2 million units, with the rest of the world making up 1.4 million units.

Source: EV Volumes. Note: Light vehicles include passenger cars and LCVs. EVs include BEVs and PHEVs. 2024 figures are forecast.

Nearly one in five light vehicle deliveries will be an EV this year. However, PHEVs are gaining more ground globally than BEVs. This is mainly thanks to the growing popularity of EREVs in China, which EV Volumes categorise with PHEVs. While EREVs are less technically complicated than PHEVs, their fuel-saving potential is greater.

The downside of this powertrain is that a larger battery is required than in a standard PHEV. For the driver, there is also a disconnect between the sounds of the engine and the motion of the vehicle.

The first modern EREVs were the Chevy Volt and the BMW i3 Rex, which were both discontinued. Today, EREVs hail from China, with Li Auto kick-starting the recent renaissance.

EREVs cover the typical PHEV domains of midsize and large cars, as well as SUVs. In China, the powertrain now accounts for 18% of all EV sales in these segments, and a third of all PHEVs. BEVs represent 45% of sales in these segments while PHEVs make up 55%.

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Launch Report: Smart #3 benefits from the best of both worlds

The Smart #3 is the second model launched by the carmaker in its new era. Can it start a trend of budget-friendly, yet premium battery-electric vehicles (BEVs)? Autovista Group (part of J.D. Power) experts analyse the model with Autovista24 special content editor Phil Curry.

Now owned by Mercedes-Benz and Geely, Smart is evolving away from its microcar roots and towards models with broader appeal. The new generation of vehicles are designed by the German carmaker, with engineering and development led by the Chinese brand.

Mercedes-Benz-assisted design offers a premium look and feel while Geely offers more advanced BEV technology. Both companies have knowledge of the European market, either as a domestic brand or through subsidiaries like Volvo. This gives Smart a good opportunity to deliver in the region.

Autovista24’s latest Launch Report benchmarks the Smart #3 against its key rivals in Austria, France and the UK. This includes detailed analysis of its strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats. New price points are also outlined alongside forecast residual values.

Click here to open the interactive dashboard

Smart exterior

As the second model released under the joint ownership structure, Smart’s new design philosophy is clearly taking shape. The #3 is very similar in appearance to the #1, with LED headlights stretching into a light bar across the front of the vehicle.

The lower grill houses sensors for the advanced driver-assistance system, while the bonnet bulges above the wheel arches, channelling air. This aerodynamic design continues along the side, with channels to smooth airflow. Meanwhile, hidden door handles both reduce drag and add to a flush-looking exterior.

Smart is marketing the #3 as a coupé-SUV model. While it does feature a slightly sloping roofline, it is perhaps not as dramatic as regular coupés. However, the privacy-glass rear-quarter windows does continue the line set by the door windows into the rear of the car. This makes the model’s profile appear almost domed and futuristic.

Comfort and practicality

The cabin of the Smart #3 is pleasantly spacious. This is aided by the panoramic sunroof which floods the interior with natural light. Seating is comfortable, with the one-piece backrest offering good support, although the rear bench is quite firm.

Despite the coupé-esque roofline, the rear-passenger headroom is plentiful, even for tall adults. There is also plenty of legroom in the rear, even with the front seats positioned quite far back. The #3 can easily accommodate four adults as a result.

There is also plenty of storage available. The floating centre console features a large bottom shelf, with the armrest housing two cupholders, a dedicated phone slot, a charging area with two USB-C ports, and a large cubby. However, this does tend to open accidentally with the button easily caught by elbows.

The boot’s 370-litre capacity will easily hold three large suitcases, while this space expands to 1,160-litres with the rear seats folded almost flat. There is no flat loading area, with a small lip between the hatch and the boot floor.

There is a dual floor, allowing for charging cables or smaller items to be hidden away. Cables can also be stored in the frunk under the bonnet, which provides an additional 15-litres of space.

Infotainment issues

The Smart #3 features a 12.8-inch touchscreen infotainment system. Meanwhile, a smaller 9.2-inch screen containing detailed driver information is located behind the steering wheel. There is also a head-up display available in certain versions of the car.

As part of the General Safety Regulation 2 legislation passed by the European Commission, the Smart #3 features safety-related systems. This includes rear-view and blind-spot cameras, intelligent speed assistance and driver fatigue alerts. These last two systems are quite sensitive in the #3, providing audible notifications at the slightest infraction.

Smart3
Launch Report
Smart #3
Source: Smart

However, a screen behind the steering wheel sets the BEV apart from its platform sibling, the Volvo EX30. With immediately accessible information, the fatigue warning system is not repeatedly activated by the driver checking the centre screen.

As with many new models, most of the #3’s controls are located within menus and apps on the central touchscreen. This includes climate control, energy usage and driving modes, audio selection and volume.

There are shortcut touch-based buttons below the screen for select systems. However, basic audio controls only exist on the steering wheel, with no physical volume dial for the passenger. As many controls are buried in menus, it is difficult for the driver to switch functions off, adjust regenerative braking, or change radio stations when the vehicle is in motion.

The driving experience

On the road, the Smart #3 performs well for a vehicle of its size and weight. The suspension is medium-to-firm, soaking up bumps and keeping the 4.4-metre-long body steady. It does tend to wallow in sharper corners if taken at speed but corrects itself well.

The steering is precise and smooth, although there is a bit of vagueness at times, especially when cornering at higher speeds. It can feel like there is a lack of front-end grip when steering. This may be a consequence of the rear-wheel drive, with all-wheel drive only available in the performance Brabus version.

Mercedes-Benz
Mercedes
Geely
BEV
Source: Smart

A 49kWh lithium-ion phosphate (LFP) battery is available on the entry-level Pro version, providing 325km of range (WLTP). All other versions get a 66kWh lithium nickel cobalt manganese (NCM) battery, providing up to 455km range (WLTP). Charging from 10% to 80% takes around 30 minutes with 150kW on the larger battery unit.

View the Autovista Group dashboard, which benchmarks the Smart #3 in Austria, France and the UK. The interactive dashboard presents new prices, forecast residual values, and SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) analysis.

This content is brought to you by Autovista24.

How have global EV forecasts reacted to strong headwinds?

EV Volumes

Global electric vehicle (EV) sales are experiencing turbulence, but is this enough to affect market trajectories? Neil King, head of forecasting at EV Volumes (part of J.D. Power), presents the latest outlook with Autovista24 special content editor Phil Curry.

Covering both passenger cars and light-commercial vehicles, the latest light-vehicle forecast from EV Volumes expects a 0.5% rise in total sales this year when compared with 2023.

This follows a weaker outlook in the non-Triad region, as well as downgraded expectations for Europe and North America. However, China did help compensate for this with an improved outlook.

Focusing on powertrain performance, the EV market has faced headwinds this year. Public opinion has suffered with talks of registration slowdowns, the cancelling of incentives and the implementation of provisional import tariffs.

Combined battery-electric vehicle (BEV) and plug-in hybrid (PHEV) volumes grew by 35% globally in 2023, reaching 14.2 million units. This equated to a 16.7% market share, up from 13.6% in 2022.

EV demand to increase

EV Volumes has held its plug-in share forecast for 2024 at 19.2%, with year-on-year growth of 16%. This means EVs are predicted to outperform the overall light-vehicle market. Factoring in the EU’s provisional import tariffs on Chinese-built BEVs, the forecast 16.49 million global EV sales in 2024 is only 9,000 units lower than predicted in June.

However, the global EV outlook for 2025 onwards is up to 100,000 units lower than previously predicted. The global EV share is forecast to reach 22.1% in 2025, then 44.9% in 2030, increasing to 69.7% in 2035. Global volumes are set to increase from 14.2 million in 2023 to 71.6 million units in 2035.

Annual battery demand is expected to increase from 0.7TWh in 2023 to 5.2TWh in 2035. This will be driven by the desire for longer electric ranges across all vehicle segments. The electrification of popular full-size SUVs and pickups in North America will also increase demand.

However, the trend for larger batteries is slowing as efficiency increases and costs fall. This will enable the electrification of smaller vehicles, which have tighter profit margins.

EV Volumes also forecasts a considerable delay in the electrification of the total light-vehicle fleet in operation. There are 1.33 billion light vehicles on the world’s roads at present. The current forecast for EV growth means it will take until 2042 for half of the market to be electric. This is assuming normal vehicle scrappage rates and replacement.

Europe’s pace slows

Europe’s new light-vehicle market expanded by 13.2% year-on-year in 2023. Supply improved after the COVID-19 pandemic and ensuing component shortages.

However, current order intake has now fallen because of high interest rates and the cost-of-living crisis. EV Volumes now forecast that the market will grow by 2.6% in 2024. This is lower than its March 2024 forecast, when expected growth sat at 3.1%.

The end of the year will see 15.1 million new light vehicles delivered, falling far short of the 18 million units registered in Europe in 2019. EV Volumes does not see the European market returning to this level during the current forecast scenario, up to and including 2035.

The European EV market entered 2024 facing some considerable challenges. France amended its incentive scheme to refuse subsidies to certain models and Germany cut incentives entirely last year. Norway ended its VAT exemption for the powertrains, and Switzerland removed the 4% import tax exemption for BEVs.

However, not all countries have taken this approach to subsidies. Italy recently introduced a new incentive scheme. Spain allocated €200 million of funding to extend its MOVES III scheme. Additionally, Poland is considering the revision of EV purchase subsidies.

More affordable BEVs such as the Citroen e-C3 are rolling out too. Global EV-leader BYD has expansion plans for the region as well, alongside other Chinese OEMs.

Tariff impact?

In July, provisional import tariffs on BEVs made in China came into force. This means additional costs for carmakers shipping vehicles into the region. Duty levels are based on the level of government subsidisation and cooperation with the EU investigation. These tariffs are in addition to existing import duties of 10%.

The tariffs remain provisional and are subject to further change as discussions continue. Furthermore, OEMs have only had to provide bank guarantees at this stage. No additional duties are to be collected until they become definitive in November.

Only Tesla confirmed a price increase following the announcement, with the made-in-China Model 3 costing around €1,500 more in some European countries. Meanwhile, Nio and Xpeng have stated they will not change prices in the EU. BYD is expected to absorb the tariffs without increasing prices. Finally, MG-parent SAIC stated that it has sufficient stock to supply the market until the tariffs become definitive in November.

Falling lithium prices are also allowing OEMs to hold prices steady.  EV Volumes assumes that prices will largely be unchanged until a final decision is made in November. There is also a possibility that final tariffs will drop at that point too.

Minimal disruption

So, the impact on the 2024 BEV sales forecast for Europe appears negligible. However, price changes and variations in demand have been considered in adjusting the forecast.

EV Volumes now expects European EV sales to rise a further 4.9% this year. This is despite the anticipated slower growth of the wider light-vehicle market. Plug-in vehicles would therefore make up for 21.8% of all light-vehicle sales in the region. BEV volumes are forecast to grow by 5.5%, accounting for 68.7% in the 2024 EV market.

PHEV sales should grow by 3.7%, benefitting from any BEV price increases while offering a stepping stone to full electrification. Incentive changes mean BEVs have already lost their price advantage in Germany, for example.

The impact of the new BEV tariffs will be greater in 2025 and beyond. EV Volumes expects that Europe will see up to 120,000 fewer BEV sales annually compared with its June update. Yet the PHEV sales outlook has been modestly increased.

The EV market share is now forecast to reach 25.6% next year, from 25.9% forecast in June. It is then expected to hit 61.9% in 2030, down from 62.3% forecast in June. This is expected to hit 95% by 2035, down from 94.1% forecast in June.

China boom

China’s EV boom continued in 2022 with the powertrain’s share hitting 26.7% from 13.9% in 2021. The government’s target for new energy vehicles (NEVs), including BEVs, PHEVs and FCEVs, to make up 20% of sales by 2025 was therefore reached three years ahead of time.

Growth was less dramatic in 2023, at 36%, but with 8.4 million units delivered, the EV share climbed to 33.9%. PHEVs have taken the lead, accounting for 18% of EVs sold in 2021 to 25% in 2022, then 32% in 2023.

Chinese OEMs continue to roll out new PHEVs, which will boost their appeal. EV Volumes forecasts the powertrain will capture 40% of the country’s EV mix by 2024.

Given the challenging economic situation in China, the government is attempting to stimulate consumer demand and address deflation. This should also bolster state-owned OEMs amid a price war.

Accordingly, EV Volumes slightly increased the light-vehicle market forecast for 2024 to 24 million units. However, this still equates to a 3.2% year-on-year decline.

The government is also planning to provide additional fiscal support to encourage the adoption of cleaner technology, including EVs. Therefore, EV Volumes has increased the EV share outlook to 2035, and expects BEVs to gain ground from 2025 onwards.

In the medium and long term, the China forecast is not restricted by share targets or capacity limitations. EVs are now forecast to account for 44.5% of light-vehicle sales in 2025, growing to 68.5% in 2030, and reaching 84% in 2035.

North America

EV sales in the US and Canada increased by 48% year on year in 2022, following 100% growth in 2021. Growing plug-in demand in 2023 mirrored 2022, although 1.64 million units meant EVs accounted for 9.4% of light-vehicle sales in 2023, up from 7.2% in 2022.

The overall automotive market recovery continues in 2024, albeit at a slightly slower pace than anticipated in March. EV Volumes has also lowered its EV share and volume forecasts as growth has stalled.

The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) supports further, rapid EV growth in the US. This is even with compliance with forthcoming battery and material-sourcing requirements still unclear for many carmakers.

Incentives for producing vehicles and batteries in the region remain strong but also imply handicaps for imported brands and models. The IRA is assumed to remain until 2032 but this could change depending on the outcome of the US election later this year.

The 100% import duty to be levied on EVs imported from China comes into force from 1 August 2024. This should not have a dramatic impact as it only affects a few models. Nevertheless, the Volvo EX30 rollout has been postponed until 2025 and the new Mini Cooper Electric until 2026.

Brands producing EVs in China, such as Lynk&Co, Nio and Smart will not launch in North America until they can relocate production.

EV Volumes forecasts that the EV share of light-vehicle sales in North America will reach 11.3% in 2024, increasing to 15% in 2025. This will increase to 41.2% in 2030 and 73.3% in 2035.

BEVs are expected to account for 78% of the electric vehicle market this year, down from 79.8% in 2023. This share is forecast to rise to 82.9% in 2025, growing to 93.6% in 2030, and 97.2% in 2035.

Non-Triad

EV numbers in the non-Triad markets rose sharply for the third consecutive year in 2023, albeit from a low base. EV demand is increasingly supported by a wider availability of products, higher incentives, and lower import tariffs in some countries.

Combined EV sales in the non-Triad markets reached 554,000 units in 2022 and exceeded one million units in 2023, with growth of 91% and 81%, respectively. Volumes grew by more than 100% in markets including Australia, Thailand, Brazil, Turkey, Malaysia, and Mexico in 2023. Meanwhile, India and Japan recorded growth of 50%.

Nevertheless, the combined EV share was only 3.6% in 2023, albeit up from 2.1% in 2022. Large vehicle markets like India, Japan, Brazil, and Mexico still sell very few EVs relative to their market size. This also pulls down the global average EV share, as non-Triad countries accounted for a third of global light-vehicle sales in 2023.

The growth forecast for all light vehicles in 2024 has been lowered to only 1.2% due to weakness in countries such as Japan and South Korea. However, governments are introducing measures to strengthen their currencies and stimulate consumer demand, which should support future vehicle sales.

Smaller shares

EV Volumes has slightly reduced its EV share forecast for the non-Triad market in 2024 and 2025. However, it has maintained it in the medium and long-term outlooks. This is backed by India incentivising localised EV production and Japan advancing with the development of solid-state batteries.

For 2024, EV Volumes expects an EV share of 4.8% in the non-Triad countries, equating to around 1.4 million sales. This will be boosted by discounting in Thailand, for example. The EV share is predicted to rise to 6.4% in 2025, hitting 17.7% in 2030. This should increase to 42.5% in 2035, trailing global EV adoption by about six years.

Many developing countries impose high tariffs on vehicle imports. Unless EVs are exempt, they will need to develop local industries to catch up with the adoption in mature markets.

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