Article Type: insights

What drove unusual Chinese EV results in January?

Electric vehicle (EV) sales in China dropped dramatically in January, as the market started 2026 with a struggle. But how did different brands influence this result? Autovista24 special content editor Phil Curry examines the numbers.

China’s EV market started 2026 in disarray. Battery-electric vehicle (BEV) and plug-in hybrid (PHEV) sales were down compared to January 2025, according to EV Volumes’ latest data. Additionally, the top 10 best-selling models for both markets were mixed, with newcomers spread throughout.

BEV deliveries fell by 20.4% in January, with 346,798 units reaching customers. This was the lowest total for the technology since February 2024. Meanwhile, PHEVs suffered an even steeper drop of 35.6% to 220,867 sales.

The country’s PHEV decline was a recurring theme throughout the last half of 2025. However, the drop in BEV volumes is new. This comes after sales growth slowed towards the end of 2025. The country’s market will be hoping January’s drop is not the start of an ongoing trend.

Mixed BEV results

The top 10 best-selling BEVs in China included five models that were not on sale in January 2025. To highlight the diverse mix, only one model from Tesla and BYD featured, respectively. Both brands appeared to struggle at the start of the year.

Even last year’s best-selling BEV in China, the Geely Geome Xingyuan, dropped deliveries compared to 12 months prior. Instead, a slew of newer models took advantage of the BEV market’s slowdown, entering the top 10.

The Xiaomi YU7 headed the Chinese BEV table in January. This model began recording sales volumes in June 2025. It achieved 37,924 deliveries in the month and gained a 10.9% market share. The YU7’s delivery figure was a record for a single BEV in January. Although the model itself achieved higher sales in December 2025.

The Nio ES8 achieved second with 18,513 units sold. The carmaker has ramped up deliveries, and January represented its third consecutive month of five-digit figures. Its market share jumped to 5.3%, up from just 0.1% a year prior.

Rounding out the top three was the Tesla Model Y. With 18,072 units, its sales declined by 29.7% compared to January 2025. This was also reflected in its market share, which dropped 0.7 percentage points (pp) to 5.2%.

Newcomers storm BEV chart

Since first recording sales in September 2025, the Li Auto I6 ended January in fourth with 16,876 sales. This equated to a 4.9% market share, a positive performance for a newcomer.

Last year’s best-selling Chinese BEV, the Geely Geome Xingyuan, ended January in fifth, with 14,887 deliveries. This was a 47.1% year-on-year decline, and the model’s lowest monthly sales since it started recording sales in September 2024.

Sixth went to the Aito M7, with 13,129 sales. This was a record amount and the model’s first foray into five digits since its launch in September last year.

With 6,772 deliveries, the combined total of the MG4 and MG4 Urban took seventh. These models were relaunched in the second half of 205 in China and achieved a 2% market share in January.

The only BYD model in the top 10 was the Dolphin, which saw sales increase by 25.9% to 5,859 units. Its 1.7% market share was up 0.6pp. Eighth went to the Wuling Bingo Plus with 5,632 deliveries, a 103.5% rise compared to January 2025. It achieved a 1.6% hold of the market, a full percentage point increase.

Rounding out the top 10 was the Toyota bZ3X. The Japanese model made its top 10 debut, just nine units behind the Wuling BEV. With 5,623 deliveries, it achieved an equal 1.6% market share.

Struggles for BYD and Tesla

Both Tesla and BYD have been staples of China’s BEV market, but January’s figures could suggest a difficult year ahead.

Although the Tesla Model Y placed well, its sales decline was the second successive January drop. Meanwhile, the US brand’s Model 3 ended the first month of 2026 in 43rd place, with just 2,030 units making their way to customers.

For BYD, its Seagull model, a constant BEV top 10 finisher last year, ended January 2026 in 11th. With just 5,525 sales, this was its worst monthly total since its first appearance in the Chinese market in April 2023. Meanwhile, the Yuan Up was 14th with 5,495 units. This also marked its worst volume since debuting in March 2024.

Looking at both brands’ EV sales, January was a poor month. BYD saw a 61.6% decline to 77,209 plug-in units, compared to 201,017 deliveries a year prior. Tesla saw 20,116 deliveries, all of which took place in the BEV market. This was a drop of 40.4% compared to the same period in 2025.

Fang Cheng Bao leads the way

BYD’s woes continued in the PHEV market, a sector it dominated in 2025. Last year, seven of the best-selling top 10 came from the Chinese carmaker. In January, however, just three made it to the chart, and none saw sales growth.

Instead, it was the carmaker’s sub-brand, Fang Cheng Bao, that took the top spot with the Tai 7. The SUV, which began mass deliveries in September 2025, has been slowly climbing the PHEV table. It dominated January’s chart with 17,553 units and a 7.9% market share.

Second went to the Aito M7, with 11,901 deliveries, a 41% rise year on year. This meant a 5.4% share of PHEV sales in China, up by 2.9pp.

The BYD Song Pro led PHEV sales for the brand in January. Its share sank by 0.7pp to 3.9% as it took third with 8,650 units. This was the model’s worst monthly total since July 2021.

The BYD Qin Plus was next, with 7,527 deliveries putting it fourth, with volumes down 49.8% year on year. This too was a new low, with deliveries not hitting these depths since January 2023.

Another new model, the Zeekr 9X, took fifth with 6,594 units and a 3% market share. The model started deliveries in September 2025.

Mixed results for PHEVs

The Aito M8 was the sixth-best-selling PHEV in China during January, with 5,316 units delivered. The model first recorded sales in April 2025.

Coming in behind was the Li Auto L6, with 5,030 sales. This was a year-on-year drop of 64%. The figure was the model’s lowest since it hit the market in April 2024. It was good enough for a 2.3% market share, down by 1.8pp compared to the same point last year.

The Aito M9 took eighth, the brand’s second appearance in the January top 10. However, its 4,821-unit tally was 47.5% down compared to January 2025. This meant its market share slipped by 0.5pp, to end the month at 2.2%.

The Wey Gaoshan came ninth. Having previously moved lower numbers, the model had a stronger end to 2025. It appears to have continued this run into 2026. With 4,813 sales, it managed a market share of 2.2%, up by 2.1pp.

Rounding out the top 10 was the BYD Seal 6 with 4,666 sales. This was a drop of 67.8% and was the model’s second consecutive month of four-digit deliveries. It was also its lowest volume since it first recorded sales in May 2024. Compared to 12 months prior, its share of the market was cut in half to 2.1%.

UK BEV market stalls in February as petrol picks up

In February, the battery-electric vehicle (BEV) share of the UK’s new-car market fell for the second consecutive month. Meanwhile, petrol saw a rare increase. But are there underlying factors playing a part in these performances? Autovista24 special content editor Phil Curry examines the figures.

Last month, the UK new-car market saw its best February performance since 2004. In total, 90,100 passenger cars were registered, a 7.2% year-on-year increase, data from the SMMT shows.

February is often considered one of the UK’s slower months, as buyers wait for the traditional plate-change period in March. But it was not all plain sailing.

Nearly every powertrain saw registrations increase in the month, except diesel-powered cars and BEVs. While the internal-combustion engine (ICE) has been sliding for a while, the all-electric drop raises concerns about the electrification push.

Demand across the market was driven by private registrations, which increased by 17.6% to 35,227 units. Fleet uptake improved by only 1.8%, although it held the largest overall volume of 53,506 units.

BEV struggle continues

The UK’s BEV market appears to be struggling. In February, 21,840 all-electric models left showrooms, a rise of 2.8% compared to the same period last year.

The technology took a 24.2% market share, dropping by 1.1 percentage points (pp) as other fuel types outpaced the powertrain. It was the second consecutive decline in market share, at a time when mandated requirements are rising.

However, it is too early to suggest that the market is going to struggle in 2026. Results in the first quarter of last year were influenced by the addition of vehicle excise duty (VED) from 1 April 2025. This makes for an uneven comparison, as many drivers likely pulled forward their purchasing plans to avoid the additional fees.

There was also likely some push from carmakers to get models out. There will have been pressure to boost end-of-year figures and meet the UK’s zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate requirements.

February’s result means that across the first two months of 2026, 51,494 BEVs were delivered to customers, a 1.2% increase. However, the 22% market share was down by 0.8pp.

For 2026, the ZEV mandate requires a fleet-sales target of 33%. This was already an ambitious requirement, given the country’s overall BEV sector failed to reach the 2025 28% requirement.

Regulatory BEV impact

Currently, the UK government is pushing hard for BEV uptake. Its Electric Car Grant incentive scheme provides discounts on certain all-electric models. A new advertising campaign, championing the benefits of BEV driving, is also running across the country.

At the end of February, a charging point grant boost was announced by the government. This provided installation support to renters, flat owners, those without off-street parking and businesses. Up to £500 (€576) can be saved when buying a domestic charger, with the plans running until March 2027.

This comes at a time when the cost of public charging, especially on rapid and ultra-rapid chargers, is increasing. According to data from the RAC, ultra-rapid chargers increased from an average of 78.06p per kW in January 2025 to 83.20p per KW in January 2026. Prices for rapid chargers rose from 79.75p per kW to 82.10p in the same period.

BEVs have also been impacted by government regulatory changes. Alongside the VED implementation in April, there was the announcement of a ‘pay-per-mile’ scheme, known as eVED. Set to start in 2028, this news has done little to champion the technology’s affordability.

‘With year-to-date BEV market share at 22%, two-thirds of the 33% share mandated for 2026, March is set to be a pivotal month. Manufacturers have already invested billions in new models and discounts to drive demand, now with support from government’s Electric Car Grant, but circumstances have changed beyond expectation since the regulation was set,’ the SMMT outlined.

‘A holistic review of the transition is needed, and must be completed urgently as buyer confidence is anticipated to be weakened further amid plans to introduce eVED from 2028,’ it continued.

Petrol powers forward

For the first time since September 2025, registrations of new petrol cars enjoyed a year-on-year improvement. In February, 41,935 units were delivered, a rise of 5.2%. However, given the month’s low volumes, this equated to an increase of just 2,070 models.

This meant the fuel type took a market share of 46.5%, down by 0.9pp compared to February 2025. This was a marginally lower drop than seen by BEVs.

The strong month means that across January and February, petrol registrations increased by 0.7% to 110,692 units. This was enough for a 47.3% share of the entire market, down 2.1pp.

The UK reports petrol powertrain figures differently from other major markets and the European industry body ACEA. It merges mild-hybrid (MHEV) volumes with their equivalent ICE counterparts. This can skew the results, with the market appearing to perform much better than other countries.

In January this year, SMMT recorded 68,757 new petrol car sales, including MHEVs. Compared with ACEA’s pure petrol ICE total of 37,109 units, MHEVs made up 46% of the SMMT’s figures. Back in January 2025, this share was only 33.5%, the lowest percentage of that year.

It does appear that the UK’s petrol market is reliant on MHEVs to prevent numbers dropping further. Yet it is still performing well compared to other markets. This is once again cause for concern, with the 2030 ban just four years away.

PHEVs perform best

The standout performance in February came from the plug-in hybrid (PHEV) market. With 10,438 deliveries, volumes rose by 43.5% compared to the second month of 2025. This was the 13th consecutive month of double-digit improvement, and the second to see improvement over 40%.

This is a level of consistency that no other powertrain in the UK has matched during the same time. These results have allowed PHEVs to close on the full-hybrid (HEV) market in the UK.

In February 2025, the gap between the two was 4,158 units. Last month, this was 1,369 units. However, it has been closer at times, as the powertrains compete. With its impressive volume jump, PHEVs took an 11.6% market share, up 2.9pp year on year.

Across 2026 so far, the technology has seen a rise of 45.9%, with 28,995 units delivered. It is the only powertrain in the year-to-date chart to see a double-digit increase. Meanwhile, its 12.4% share jumped by 3.5pp.

HEVs also saw growth. Registrations rose by 3.3%, with 11,807 deliveries made in the month. This equated to a 13.1% market share, down by 0.5pp. Between January and February, 31,104 HEVs left showrooms, a 4.2% increase. The technology’s market share remained stable, dipping 0.1pp.

Diesel drags down ICE

ICE registrations, bringing together petrol, diesel, and their respective MHEV powertrains, increased by 4.3% in February. This allowed the technology to take a 51.1% market share, a drop of 1.4pp. This was not helped by diesel’s decline in the month, as the powertrain posted a 3.8% drop, with 4,080 registrations.

Meanwhile, electric vehicles (EVs), made up of BEVs and PHEVs, experienced a 13.2% improvement, driven by plug-in hybrids. Their share of 35.8% was up 1.9pp. However, it was also 15.3pp away from ICE.

Towards the end of 2025, EVs had overtaken ICE deliveries, pulling ahead by 0.2pp in December. With BEV deliveries recently stagnating, lower PHEV volumes, and an apparent resurgence for petrol, EVs have a lot of work to do to catch up again.

The same can be said for the electrified market. Adding HEVs to the EV mix, deliveries were up 10.4% in the month, with a share of 48.9%. This is the second month in a row that electrified volumes have fallen below ICE. The grouping beat the traditional powertrain grouping between September and December 2025.

In the first two months of 2026, EV registrations were up 13.8% with a 34.4% market share. Electrified deliveries increased by 10.9%, with a 47.6% hold of the overall total. However, ICE deliveries continue to lead, with a 52.4% share, despite a 0.1% decrease in volumes.

The world’s best-selling new BEVs and PHEVs of 2025

Which new battery-electric vehicle (BEV) and plug-in hybrid (PHEV) models recorded the greatest sales volumes in 2025? How did regional dynamics dictate the best-seller tables? Autovista24 editor Tom Geggus unpacks the data.

Following two years of global new PHEV sales growth outpacing all-electric cars, 2025 saw BEVs surge ahead. With 13,697,372 units taking to roads around the world, the powertrain recorded year-on-year delivery growth of 26.7%. This is according to the latest data from EV Volumes.

Meanwhile, PHEV deliveries slowed to an increase of 11.1%, down significantly from the 55.2% acceleration in 2024. Last year saw 7,217,499 plug-in hybrids making their way to customers.

Much of this came down to China’s slowing PHEV market. The country was responsible for 70.3% of the powertrain’s sales, meaning declining results impacted the global market. In contrast, Spain saw triple-digit sales growth for the technology, but it made up a far smaller global share of just 1.8%.

Between the two, the US made up 4.6% of the world’s PHEV market, with sales up 4.8%. Then came Germany with 62.5% growth and a 4.3% share. The UK had the fourth largest PHEV market, accounting for 3.1% of sales globally. The country saw deliveries increase by 34.5%.  

The slowdown was highlighted by an increase in December’s global volumes of just 0.9%, as 758,073 sales were recorded.

BEVs bounce ahead

In contrast, China saw its BEV market pick up speed last year, with growth reaching 27.6%. Despite a smaller portion of global sales compared to PHEVs, it still dominated global deliveries at 59.1%.

This was still far ahead of the next biggest market, the US, which saw sales fall by 3.9%. In total, 8.7% of all-electric car sales took place in the country.

Given China’s slowing EV market and emissions regulation changes in the US, the dynamic of the global EV sector could shift in 2026 and beyond.

Germany followed with 4% of the global BEV market as sales increased by 43%. The UK was 0.5 percentage points (pp) behind with a 3.5% share as sales increased by 24.2%. France saw all-electric sales increase by 13.6% as it made up 2.5% of all-electric deliveries.

In December, BEVs managed a global increase of 12.4%, as 1,376,827 units made their way to customers.

Best-selling BEV: Tesla Model Y

The Tesla Model Y was the world’s best-selling BEV of 2025. With new variants and designs launched, it was the only electric vehicle (EV) to exceed the one-million delivery mark. In total, 1,085,521 units made their way to customers as it retained the market lead it has held since 2022.

However, within an increasingly competitive space, the model saw its sales fall by 7.5% year on year. This meant its market share shrank from 10.9% in 2024 to 7.9% last year.

Most of the Model Y’s sales in 2025 took place in China. Given the country’s greater EV market development, this should come as little surprise. However, the US was only 9.2pp behind, with 30% of the model’s overall sales taking place there.

Behind these two formidable markets came South Korea, Turkey and Canada, representing 4.6%, 2.9% and 2.6% of the BEV’s sales.

The Tesla Model Y was helped by a strong December. 129,650 units were sold in the month, boosted by its traditional quarterly reporting period. This was, however, 4.3% down year on year.

Tesla takes second as China dominates

The second-best-selling BEV last year had four things in common with the market leader. It was another Tesla, it saw updates in 2025, it retained its position from 2022 onwards, and its deliveries fell.

The Tesla Model 3 saw sales decline by 5.5% to 499,685 units in 2025. This meant its market share dropped by 1.3pp to 3.6%.

The Model 3 saw 40.1% of its sales take place in China. But once again, the US was only 9.1pp behind at 31%. The all-electric sedan saw positive uptake in the UK, with 3.1% of its deliveries occurring in the market.

In December, the Model 3 placed second thanks to Tesla’s quarterly reporting. It achieved 55,198 sales, a 5.6% dip year on year.

The Geely Geome Xingyuan, also known as the EX2 in some locations, ended the year in third. A relative newcomer in the BEV market, it first recorded sales in September 2024. It saw a marked increase of 800% to 473,948 units as its market share jumped by 3pp to 3.5%.

While the Tesla Model Y and Model 3 each recorded sales across more than 75 markets, the Xingyuan contrasted heavily. It only posted deliveries in four markets, China, Brazil, Mauritius and Colombia.

However, the latter three markets noted relatively minimal sales compared to China. It saw 99.5% if its sales take place domestically. The model is scheduled to enter major European markets in 2026.

The Geome Xingyuan saw 43,185 sales in December alone, as it increased volumes by 161.9% year on year. This capped an impressive first full year on sale for the Chinese BEV.

Eight Chinese BEVs in top 10

The Xingyuan began an avalanche of BEVs from Chinese carmakers. Eight of the top 10 in the best-sellers list came from the country.

The Wuling Mini was fourth as it saw sales climb by 65.3% to 431,779 units. This gave it a market share of 3.2%, up from 2.4% in 2024. The BYD Seagull, also known as the Dolphin Surf in some markets, took fifth. However, its sales fell by 13.3% to 409,550 units. This took its share down by 1.4pp to 3%.

The Xiaomi SU7 came sixth as its market share increased by 0.6pp to 1.9%. This was thanks to year-on-year sales growth of 85.3%, reaching 258,824 units.

With a similar 84.2% rate of growth, the BYD Yuan Up, also known as the Atto 2, recorded 252,441 deliveries. Its share climbed by 0.5pp to 1.8%.

The BYD Dolphin saw a 4.6% rise in sales to 227,352 units. Even though this was a better volume than in 2024, greater competition meant the BEV saw its market share shrink. It accounted for 1.7% of all BEV deliveries, down from 2%.

The BYD Yuan Plus, also known as the Atto 3, saw sales decline by 33.7% to 225,133 units. This resulted in a 1.5pp decline in share to 1.6%. In 10th, the Xpeng M03 enjoyed a 264.7% sales increase to 177,150 units. Its grip on the market increased to 1.3% from 0.4% in 2024.

Best-selling PHEV: BYD Song Plus

While BYD was able to capture four of the top-10 best-selling BEV positions, it excelled in the PHEV market. In total, it claimed seven of the best-selling slots in the year, including first place.

The best-selling PHEV in 2025 was the BYD Song Plus, known in some markets as the Seal U. This extended its winning streak, after it claimed the title in 2024. Last year it recorded 328,094 sales, taking 4.5% of the market.

However, like the majority of BYD’s PHEVs in the top 10, it saw its deliveries fall compared with 2024. Its volumes declined by 9.8%, while its share was eroded by 1.1pp to 4.5%.

At 50.8%, the Song Plus saw over half of its sales take place in China. Single-digit shares were recorded in 49 other markets. This included Turkey, Mexico, the UK and Brazil, accounting for 7.8%, 7.5%, 6.3% and 5.5% of its sales respectively.

The end-of-year success came despite a fall in monthly performance. It ended December in fifth, with 22,226 units delivered, a 49.1% year-on-year decline.

Qin Plus takes second

In comparison, the Qin Plus was the second-most popular PHEV of 2025, but only recorded sales in 10 countries. China accounted for the vast majority of its deliveries at 96.2%. Globally, its volumes declined by 15.9% to 292,572 units. This meant it took a 4.1% market share, down 1.3pp.

The model still topped the PHEV chart in December, thanks to 40,818 deliveries, a 30.1% increase compared to the same month in 2024.

The BYD Song Pro took a marginally larger fall. Its share stumbled by 1.4pp to 3.2% as its sales decreased by 22% to 231,143 units. While China accounted for 78.2% of its sales, Brazil managed 10.5%, followed by Mexico at 4%. Highlighting the Song Pro’s struggles, it ended December in fourth, with its 24,070 sales down by 26.4%.

The BYD Seal 6 took fourth in the global PHEV top 10 at the end of 2025. Its sales increase by 3.1% to 206,136 units. This made it one of two BYD models in the top 10 to achieve this positivity. However, this was not enough to stop its market share from slipping. It accounted for 2.9% of all PHEV sales last year, down from 3.1%.

The first non-BYD model in the top 10 was the Li Auto L6 in fifth. It saw sales drop by 13.2% to 166,965, taking a 2.3% share, down 0.7pp. The BYD Qin L took sixth with a 2.3% grasp on the market. This reflected a drop of 1.2pp as sales slowed by 29.1% to 162,817 units.

The BYD Destroyer 05 took seventh in 2025 even as its deliveries dropped by 32.7% to 150,677 units. Its share also took a downturn, hitting 2.1% from 3.4% in 2024.

Share increases possible                                                      

The top seven highest-performing PHEVs in the world all saw their grip on the market weaken in 2025. However, this was not the case throughout the top 10.

After first recording sales in April 2025, the Aito M8 claimed a share of 2.1% with 148,934 deliveries. The BYD Song L came ninth, as its share increased to 2% from 1.9% in 2024. The model’s volumes increased by 16.8% to 142,301 units, the only other BYD to achieve this in 2025’s top 10.

The Galaxy Starship 7, also known as the Starray, first recorded sales in November 2024. Across 2025, its deliveries soared by 512.8% to 126,461 units. This meant its market share climbed by 1.5pp to 1.8%.

While the global PHEV market slowed in December, two models saw impressive performances in the last month of the year. The Fang Cheng Bao Tai 7 ended the month second in the PHEV table. It saw 34,086 sales, accounting for 4.5% of the global total. Meanwhile, the Aito M7 placed third with 26,468 deliveries. This was a 97.3% year-on-year improvement, the best result in the top 10. This gave it a 3.5% market share, up from 1.8% recorded a year prior.

BYD sees surging new-car sales in a declining German market

The German new-car market declined for the first time in seven months in January, fuelled by internal-combustion engine (ICE) losses. However, new arrivals were still able to record surging volumes. Autovista24 journalist Tom Hooker unpacks the figures.

Germany’s new-car market struggled in January, with 193,981 registrations representing a 6.6% decline year on year. This was driven by a 14.4% slump in private deliveries, according to the KBA. Conversely, the commercial market grew by 2.1%.

In a familiar trend, electric vehicles (EVs), made up of battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), provided a boost. However, ICE models placed downward pressure on volumes.

In this case, the force of petrol and diesel declines prevailed. A stagnating hybrid market, combining full and mild hybrids, was unable to provide any assistance. Moreover, while EV growth remained strong, it did slow significantly.

External factors may have also influenced Germany’s sluggish start to the year. The Federal Government adjusted its GDP growth forecast downwards at the end of January, from 1.3% to 1%.

Private consumption in Germany is projected to rise by just 0.8% in 2026 according to the Annual Economic Report. On top of this, unemployment figures reached a 12-year high in the country during January, Reuters highlighted.

So, as economic growth and labour market momentum slow, this could cause delays in new car purchases. It may also push more drivers towards financing agreements instead of buying a car outright.

Overall, January knocked the German new-car market off its footing. However, some brands performed better than others in a slowing market.

Which brands recorded growth?

Volkswagen (VW) recorded more deliveries than any other carmaker in the German new-car market during January. This was despite suffering a double-digit decline compared to the previous year. Fellow VW Group brand Skoda was the country’s second-best-selling marque in the month. However, unlike VW, it enjoyed a double-digit improvement.

Domestic marques Mercedes-Benz, BMW and Audi took third, fourth and fifth, respectively. SEAT secured sixth, despite suffering the biggest year-on-year decline out of the 10 best-selling brands, at 29.8%. Opel, another Stellantis brand, enjoyed a 27.4% sales increase in seventh.

Behind, Ford endured a 11.1% drop in eighth, as Hyundai took ninth. Fiat rounded out the top 10 with an 87.2% surge compared to January 2025. This improvement made it one of the fastest-growing carmakers in the month. The marque with one of the largest volume surges was BYD, with a 1,018.7% year-on-year uptick to 2,629 registrations.

Lynk & Co saw even greater growth of 1,175%, but only to 51 units. Leapmotor saw a triple-digit increase, alongside Xpeng and Polestar. But once again, these brands’ results were also based on lower volumes.

Slowing EV growth

While carmakers saw varied registration growth, the electric vehicle (EV) market continued its streak of double-digit improvements. Volumes increased by 23.5% in January compared to 12 months prior.

This growth seems impressive at first glance, yet it marked a significant slowdown. It was the slowest EV registrations performance since December 2024. With 64,482 units hitting the roads, it also marked the lowest monthly delivery total since August 2025.

Smaller volumes can be explained by January typically being a slower month for new-car registrations. However, with EVs playing an increasingly important role in the overall market performance, maintaining growth rates has become crucial.

The powertrain group made up 33.2% of overall deliveries in January, up 8.1 percentage points (pp) year on year.

‘The passenger car market has made an extremely cautious start to the new year. For sustainable overall market growth in 2026, we need a further increase in BEV order intake,’ commented VDIK president Imelda Labbé.

Are incentives holding back demand?

Germany’s new EV incentives are set to boost registrations of plug-in powertrains. Buyers can submit funding applications for the new scheme, applicable to both BEVs and PHEVs, retroactively from 1 January 2026. The subsidy is expected to scale with taxable household income and family size. It is also dependent on the vehicle’s powertrain.

However, applications must be submitted through an online portal, which is expected to open in May 2026. This could mean that some buyers are withholding purchases to ensure incentives are applied closer to the point of sale. But for now, the market will need to survive without the immediate aid of subsidies.

‘Customers now need clarity as quickly as possible about the modalities of the BEV subsidy that has been promised since January,’ Labbé confirmed.

Elsewhere, the ZDK urgently appealed that the government does not waste time in implementing the incentives.

‘Delays in the implementation process have been causing uncertainty among companies and customers since the announcement of the EV subsidy two months ago,’ highlighted ZDK president Thomas Peckruhn.

BEVs losing momentum?

Of the two EV technologies, BEVs saw marginally stronger growth. Registrations improved by 23.8% compared to 12 months prior, with 42,692 units leaving forecourts. This was the smallest all-electric increase in percentage terms since June 2025. Despite this, its share soared by 5.4pp to 22%.

PHEVs enjoyed a 23% uptick in volumes, with 21,790 units. Yet, this was its lowest improvement since December 2024. The powertrain captured 11.2% of total deliveries, up 2.7pp year on year.

ICE maintains declines

In line with other major European new-car markets, registrations of ICE-powered models declined again in Germany during January.

Volumes slumped by 25.5% in the month, with 71,004 units. This represented the powertrain group’s biggest year-on-year drop in percentage terms since June 2025. Its share fell by 9.3pp to 36.6%.

Petrol suffered the bigger drop of the two fuel types, with a 29.9% delivery downturn. This was its fourth consecutive double-digit decline, and its biggest monthly fall since June 2025. The powertrain recorded 43,695 registrations, nearly half of its total from January 2024.

Petrol’s share slipped to 22.5%, down by 7.5pp year on year. It also marked the closest that the fuel type has ever been to BEVs in terms of market share. Just 0.5pp separated the two powertrains in January, compared to a 13.4pp gap one year ago.

Diesel deliveries dropped by 17.1% to 27,309 units. Like petrol, this marked its fourth consecutive double-digit decline. Furthermore, it also represented the lowest diesel volume since August 2025. Yet, its 14.1% market share, although down by 1.8pp year on year, was the powertrain’s highest since July 2025.

Has hybrid growth already peaked?

The hybrid market endured a 1.8% dip in January, with 58,206 new models taking to the road. The result comes after marginal growth in December and an uncharacteristic decline in November. These results signal a shift in the technology’s consistent upward momentum. Before this, hybrids achieved 14 months of consecutive growth.

While it pushed past petrol to become Germany’s most popular powertrain in 2025, recent performances may suggest that hybrids have reached their natural peak. The technology accounted for 30% of overall registrations in January, up 1.5pp year on year, but well below the 8.1pp rise achieved by EVs.

So, as a transition technology from ICE models to EVs, the tide may have already shifted in the latter’s favour. Moreover, as EV charging infrastructure improves and technology becomes more advanced, buyers may be less compelled to choose a hybrid.

What is undeniable is that electrified models, comprised of EV and hybrid volumes, now dominate the German new-car market. The powertrain group made up 63.2% of overall volumes in January, up 9.5pp year on year. This was helped by a 10.1% growth in registrations to 122,688 units.

Has a new leader emerged in Europe’s BEV market?

Across most of 2025, Tesla and Skoda topped Europe’s monthly battery-electric vehicle (BEV) standings. In November, a new leader emerged in the region. Autovista24 journalist Tom Hooker reveals the results.

While Europe’s electric vehicle (EV) market had a new leader in November, the continent’s growth trajectory remained unchanged.

EV sales, including BEVs and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), enjoyed year-on-year growth of 29.3% from January to November 2025. A total of 3,442,316 new models were delivered in this timeframe, according to EV Volumes.

In November alone, sales were up 36.3% to 367,617 units. This was nearly identical to October’s year-on-year improvement of 36.6%. This relatively stable period for EV demand helped propel the market further forward.

Deliveries were up 23.8% across the first half of 2025. However, the same consistency cannot be seen when looking at BEV and PHEV performances separately.

Contrasting EV momentum

In November, BEVs enjoyed their biggest monthly sales increase since January 2025, with volumes surging by 37% to 253,865 units. The powertrain’s cumulative figure sat at 2,286,225 deliveries, up 27.3% compared to the same period in 2024. This represented a gradual rise from its growth of 24.9% during the first half of 2025.

On the other hand, the extraordinary PHEV growth seemed to slow. Sales improved by 34.9% in November to 113,752 units, the powertrain’s lowest monthly growth rate since April. This was above PHEVs’ cumulative increase of 33.6% from January to November, with 1,156,091 deliveries.

Europe’s new EV leader

Combined deliveries of the Renault 5 and Alpine A290 claimed Europe’s monthly EV best-sellers title in November. This was despite stiff competition from Tesla and Skoda, which dominated in 2025.

Deliveries soared by 169.1%, with 11,338 new models sold in the month, the duo’s highest-ever monthly sales total.

The Renault 5 and Alpine A290 narrowly bested a resurgent Tesla Model 3, which landed just 130 units behind. The more affordable version of the sedan, called the Model 3 Standard, was recently introduced to Europe. This may help to boost demand in the coming months.

A further 55 units back was the Skoda Elroq, which topped Europe’s EV market in October. With 12 months of recorded sales, the compact SUV’s delivery ramp-up appears to have plateaued. From September to November, its monthly sales figures did not exceed 11,395.

Fourth was the Tesla Model Y. This marked the first time since October 2022 that the crossover finished behind its smaller sibling. While the Model 3 enjoyed a double-digit improvement year-on-year, its big brother suffered a 38.1% drop to 10,989 units.

Even so, the Model Y was still not far from victory. Just 349 units separated first and fourth place in November’s best-selling BEV table.

VW Group’s BEV competition

Some distance behind, the Volkswagen (VW) ID.7 was embroiled in its own battle. It posted a 41.1% improvement to 7,343 sales, the all-electric models’ highest monthly total since March 2025. A further 227 units behind was the Skoda Enyaq in sixth. Unlike its fellow VW Group model, the SUV endured a 30.2% drop to 7,116 units.

The VW ID.4 placed seventh, with a 6.6% increase to 6,483 sales. Hot on its tail was its sibling, the ID.3. The hatchback posted 6,312 deliveries in November, translating to a 35.3% improvement year-on-year.

This meant that half of November’s top 10 was filled by VW Group models. Covering a variety of segments and body types, just under 5,000 units separated the BEVs.

Dolphin diving into the top 10

BMW’s iX1 claimed ninth, only 15 units behind the VW ID.3. However, it saw even greater growth compared to 12 months prior, with volumes up 41.9%.

Rounding out the top 10 was the BYD Dolphin Surf, with 5,972 units. This was the first time the hatchback featured in Europe’s monthly BEV top 10, after deliveries began in May 2025.

The Dolphin Surf’s volumes took a significant step up in November, meaning it may not have reached its full potential in Europe. If the model’s sales continue to rise, it could feature in the continent’s top 10 bestseller list by the end of 2026.

Yet, with November’s performance, the hatchback has established itself as a strong contender as a small BEV in Europe. It faces plenty of competition, including the Renault 5 and the Alpine A290. The Kia EV3, the Citroën ë-C3 and the Volvo EX30 are also popular small BEVs.

Additionally, more new models will enter the fray in 2026. This includes the Kia EV2 and BYD Atto 2 DM-i, which were presented at the Brussels Motor Show.

Tesla remains in control

After 11 months of 2025, the Tesla Model Y looked assured to win the title of Europe’s best-selling EV. The crossover’s 126,702 sales were 45,093 units ahead of its closest rival, the Skoda Elroq. This gap is likely to grow, with the Model Y expected to experience its usual end-of-quarter delivery peak in December.

Meanwhile, the second-place SUV was relatively safe from the chasing pack, with 81,609 sales between January and November.

However, the Renault 5 and the Alpine A290 could potentially benefit from a last-minute slip-up, presuming their momentum is maintained. The duo sat third with a combined total of 78,787 units.

Moving up the table

Moving up two places to fourth was the Tesla Model 3, after a strong November. With 74,974 sales, it could challenge for third, considering its quarterly delivery cycle.

Fifth was occupied by the Skoda Enyaq. The SUV recorded 70,985 sales in the first 11 months of 2025. Just 481 units behind was the VW ID.3, which fell two positions to sixth. Its sibling, the ID.4, claimed seventh with 69,426 units, after finishing ahead of the ID.3 in November.

The VW ID.7 landed in eighth thanks to 68,080 sales. It placed ahead of the ID.3 and ID.4 in November, meaning these three positions could change in the full-year standings. Kia’s EV3 secured ninth with 61,197 units, while the BMW iX1 landed 10th, posting 59,091 deliveries.

BYD’s PHEV success

BYD’s European PHEV success continued in November. The carmaker’s Seal U topped the standings during the month, with 5,682 new models delivered. This represented a 263.5% volume increase compared to 12 months prior.

Two other SUVs followed behind: the VW Tiguan and the Volvo XC60. Both models are competing against the Seal U for the 2025 PHEV best-seller title. The former recorded 4,927 sales in November, up 27% year on year. Conversely, the XC60 endured a 23.6% delivery decline, with 4,312 new models taking to European roads.

The Mercedes-Benz GLC was just 54 units behind in fourth. The SUV enjoyed a sales boost of 25.9% compared to November 2024. Then came the MG eHS with 3,607 deliveries, equating a year-on-year surge of 100.5%. Sixth was taken by the Ford Kuga, however, it faced a 1.5% drop in sales to 3,457 units.

The first non-SUV in November’s PHEV top 10 was the Audi A3. The model posted its highest monthly delivery figure since March 2024, with 3,271 deliveries. Compared to November 2024, this was a jump of 938.4%.

The Jaecoo J7 made its third consecutive top 10 appearance after only beginning to record significant volumes in February 2025. During November, the SUV posted 2,976 sales, putting it in eighth.

BMW’s X3 trailed the Jaecoo J7 by just 87 units. The German model recorded 2,889 deliveries in the month. This brought the total of SUVs featured in the month’s top 10 best-selling models to eight. The VW Golf finished in 10th. The hatchback recorded 2,858 sales, up 121% year-on-year.

All set for PHEV glory?

From January to November, the BYD Seal U sat at the top of the European PHEV market. With its November triumph, the model extended its lead, bringing its cumulative total to 57,949 units.

Its closest challenger was the VW Tiguan. The PHEV trailed the top spot by 2,271 units. This left the Tiguan with a mountain to climb to take full-year victory. The Volvo XC60 was third with 53,057 sales. Despite being in the fight for the title throughout the year, its chance of victory heading into December appears slim.

Fourth went to the Ford Kuga, which has remained consistent in 2025. Its 41,818-unit total was comfortably ahead of the BMW X1 in fifth. After narrowly missing out on November’s top 10, it recorded 36,257 units after 11 months of the year. The Mercedes-Benz GLC followed in sixth, with 34,839 deliveries.

MG’s eHS secured seventh in the cumulative standings, thanks to 33,383 sales. Not far behind was the Toyota C-HR, taking eighth with 32,149 units.

Fighting for a top 10 finish

Multiple models are fighting for a 2025 top 10 finish in the PHEV table. At the end of November, the Cupra Formentor held ninth with 26,695 deliveries. Just 99 units behind was the VW Golf, which entered the top 10.

However, both models are far from safe. The two most likely candidates to cause a last-minute shock are the BMW 5-Series and the Jaecoo J7. The models posted 26,588 and 26,194 units between January and November, respectively. In particular, the Jaecoo J7 was well positioned to enter the top 10 after a strong run of monthly results.

The Toyota RAV4, BMW X3, and Hyundai Tucson also have an outside chance of squeezing in. The three SUVs recorded 25,880, 25,550 and 25,116 units, respectively.

Which of the world’s automotive markets will electrify the fastest?

Is China’s lead insurmountable? Could Northern America make a comeback? What does the Automotive Package mean for Europe? How are the non-Triad markets faring? EV Volumes’ head of forecasting, Neil King, unpacks the latest predictions with Autovista24 editor Tom Geggus.

Covering passenger cars and light-commercial vehicles (LCVs), EV Volumes has stepped up its global light-vehicle market forecast. Data for 2025 is expected to confirm 92.7-million-unit sales, up by 4% year on year. This is compared with the 3.6% growth outlined in September’s forecast. 

EVs, including battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), are predicted to make up 25.5% of these sales. This means approximately 23.7 million new plug-in vehicles will hit roads worldwide. Moving forward, improved outlooks in China, the non-Triad markets, and Europe offset the downgrade to Northern America.

The global electric vehicle (EV) share is forecast to reach 27.5% in 2026, 43.2% in 2030, 64.6% in 2035, and 83.2% in 2040. That said, budget pressures and policy shifts may threaten investment in incentives and charging infrastructure. Various legacy vehicle makers are reducing their EV targets. This has further weakened the outlook for EV adoption in Northern America.

China’s booming EV market

The EV boom has continued in China, with the plug-in share rising from 13.9% in 2021 to 44.3% in 2024. The market’s strength is supported by favourable total cost of ownership and increasingly competitive pricing.

Given economic headwinds, the Chinese government has focused on boosting domestic consumption, with additional support directed toward state-owned OEMs. The economic situation appears positive, with the OECD upgrading the 2025 GDP growth outlook for China to 5%.

Vehicle demand also remains resilient. EV Volumes has slightly upgraded its 2025 light-vehicle sales forecast to 27.8 million units, up 7.1% year on year. A scrappage programme was extended beyond the original January 2025 deadline. However, it has been suspended in several cities, which could disproportionately reduce demand for EVs given their higher bonus levels.

Additionally, in October 2025, China ended its national EV subsidy programme, as reported by Reuters. It also excluded new-energy vehicles (NEVs) from the list of strategic emerging industries in its latest five-year development plan. This includes EVs, extended-range electric vehicles (EREVs) and fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs).

While direct subsidies are gone, purchase tax exemptions remain in place, although they are expected to phase out by 2027. Also, some local governments still offer targeted incentives.

Targets to hit

In 2025, China set a target of approximately 15.5 million total NEV sales. The country also pledged to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 7% to 10% by 2035. This marked the nation’s first commitment to absolute emissions cuts.

PHEVs have taken an increasing share of the EV market. This rose from 18.3% in 2021 to 42.3% in 2024 and was largely due to strong sales of BYD and Li Auto EREVs.

While Chinese OEMs continue launching new PHEVs and EREVs, BEVs are regaining momentum, bolstered by aggressive discounting initiated by BYD. As such, BEVs are forecast to account for 61.2% of EV sales in 2025 and about two-thirds by 2031.

In China, EVs are forecast to represent 56.4% of all light-vehicle sales in 2025. This is set to increase to 76.4% in 2030, 89.7% in 2035, and 96.1% in 2040.

Forecast volumes are based on retail sales (not wholesales), excluding exports and inventory build-up. This explains the difference from the typically higher wholesale-based figures published by other agencies.

Barriers in Northern America

In Northern America, including the US and Canada, light-vehicle sales rose by 2.9% in 2024, following 12.4% growth in 2023. The EV share increased from 9.4% in 2023 to 10.2% in 2024. In contrast to China, the region’s electrification looks to have lost a lot of energy.

Last year saw multiple major influencing factors hit the region’s light-vehicle market. Canada saw funding for the iZEV programme run out in January, with BEV uptake falling and no replacement scheme announced. In March, the US government announced 25% import duties on vehicles. Then the ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’ act ended EV tax credits in September.

Ford dropped plans for several all-electric models in the US and is replacing the all-electric F-150 Lightning with an EREV version. It was not alone, with Stellantis making similar strategic shifts, TechCrunch reported. This points to a greater share of PHEVs and EREVs as manufacturers balance electrification with customer preferences and profitability pressures.

EV Volumes has slightly increased the 2025 light-vehicle sales forecast for Northern America to 18.2 million units. This is up 2% year on year. The EV share is now expected to reach 9.9% in 2025 and rise only modestly to 10.1% in 2026.

These small gains will be primarily supported by Canada and the rollout of more affordable models. This includes the standard versions of the Tesla Model 3 and Model Y. EV shares are then expected to climb to 20.9% in 2030, 39.3% in 2035, and 58.6% in 2040. This is well below the predicted global EV share of over 83.2% in 2040.

European market uncertainty

Western and Central Europe’s light-vehicle market grew by 1.7% year-on-year in 2024, following 14% growth in registrations in 2023. Changing goods tariffs, developments in Ukraine, and ongoing tensions in the Middle East have all created regional sales uncertainty. The possibility of higher inflation, oil prices, and energy costs could also lead to weaker private consumption.

However, the OECD‘s December 2025 economic outlook predicts that GDP in the Euro area will gain 1.3% in 2025. This is slightly higher than the September outlook, which anticipated 1.2% growth.

The EU proposed tariff reductions in August, enabling the EU-US trade agreement. This lowered duties on the automotive sector from 27.5% to 15%. The recently ratified EU-Mercosur and EU-Mexico free-trade agreements have also boosted the region’s automotive competitiveness.

Low rate of growth

EV Volumes forecasts that light-vehicle sales in Western and Central Europe will grow by 0.3% year-on-year in 2025. This is higher than in the September 2025 forecast, which projected a 1% decline. At 15 million units, this is far below the 18 million light vehicles registered in 2019.

EV Volumes does not expect the European market to return to 2019 levels within the current forecast horizon, up to 2040. A slight dip in demand is also expected in 2030 and 2035. Demand will likely be pulled forward into 2029 and 2034, triggered by the stricter EU emissions targets.

Stagnation in 2040 reflects the underlying cycle effect. Earlier peaks in replacement demand and fleet renewals unwind, and the market normalises after several years of elevated recovery volumes. Light-vehicle sales are expected to grow by 1.7% in 2026, hinging on a complex interplay of regulatory and economic factors.

EV Volumes forecasts that European EV sales will grow 30.2% year on year in 2025 to 3.99 million units. This means they will represent 26.6% of all light-vehicle sales.

BEV volumes are forecast to grow 28% year-on-year, accounting for 67.5% of all EV deliveries in 2025. PHEV sales are expected to increase by 35.1%. EVs will reach a 31.1% share of European light-vehicle sales in 2026 and 36.6% in 2027. This will be driven by new model launches, lower prices, and stricter emissions targets.

EU Automotive Package

In December 2025, the European Commission unveiled its Automotive Package. It introduced a revised CO2 reduction pathway and compliance mechanisms between 2030 and 2035.

Previously, carmakers had to cut tailpipe CO2 emissions of passenger vehicles by 100% by 2035. Under the proposal, they will instead need to reach a 90% reduction compared with 2021 levels. The remaining 10% will be offset through low-carbon steel, e-fuels, and biofuels. So, PHEVs, EREVs, FHEVs, mild hybrids, and even pure internal-combustion vehicles (ICE) could remain available beyond 2035.

The package also suggests greater flexibility for the 2030 target. Manufacturers could get a three-year compliance period between 2030 and 2032 to achieve the 55% emissions reduction. For LCVs, the 2030 CO2 reduction target would be eased from 50% to 40%, acknowledging slower electrification progress.

Additional proposed measures include mandatory zero and low-emission fleet share targets at the member-state level. There could also be updated labelling rules for EV range and energy consumption. ‘Super credits’ for small, affordable EVs produced in the EU are on the table too. A €1.8 billion battery support package is proposed to accelerate the European battery value chain as well.

The proposal remains subject to approval by both the EU Parliament and the EU Council. This means it is not reflected in EV Volumes forecast. However, if adopted as outlined, EVs may only account for between 55% and 60% of European light-vehicle sales by 2030. This would increase to between 80% and 85% by 2035. By 2040, this may hit between 90% and 95%.

These projections assume emissions balancing between 2030 and 2032 and continued alignment of national policies. Several markets, such as Norway, Sweden, and the Netherlands, are likely to maintain stricter targets. While currently committed to a 2030 ICE ban, the UK is expected to follow the EU’s revised framework.

Non-Triad measures

In non-Triad markets, EV volumes rose for the fourth consecutive year in 2024. This was thanks to greater product availability, stronger incentives, and lower import duties in selected countries. Combined EV sales reached 1.36 million units in 2024, up 34.2% year-on-year.

Light-vehicle sales managed the economic impact from US trade tariffs better than expected in 2025. However, EV Volumes has slightly decreased the 2025 light-vehicle sales growth forecast to 4.4%.

Indonesia introduced VAT exemption for low-emission vehicles in January and a reduced VAT rate thereafter. Japan increased the budget for EV subsidies under the Clean Vehicle Energy Subsidy Programme. India cut import duties for premium EVs as part of a new manufacturing programme in June.

Thailand revised its EV policy to encourage exports and prevent domestic oversupply. Each EV produced for export now counts as 1.5 units toward local production obligations.

In response to US tariffs, South Korea launched temporary stimulus measures. This includes financing support and higher EV subsidies. It is also planning additional tax exemptions for EVs. Accordingly, the EV share in non-Triad countries is forecast to reach 6.9% in 2025, hitting around 2.2 million units.

However, budget constraints driven by economic concerns may limit future incentive schemes. Several countries have introduced new tariffs on imported vehicles. This includes a 50% tariff in Mexico and up to 30% duties in Turkey. There will also be an end to incentives for imported, completely built-up BEVs in Indonesia.

The EV share is projected to reach 17% in 2030, 41.8% in 2035, and 76.8% in 2040. This generally lags the global adoption curve by about five years until 2035.

Tesla and Togg battle it out in Turkey’s booming BEV market

As Turkey’s electric vehicle (EV) market grows, a domestic carmaker is taking the battery-electric vehicle (BEV) fight to Tesla. But which BEV and plug-in hybrid (PHEV) models have been driving the country’s electrification in 2025? James Roberts, Autovista24 web editor, assesses the latest data from EV Volumes.

Between January and October, 183,748 new BEVs and PHEVs took to Turkey’s roads, according to EV Volumes data. This is compared with 68,309 units in the first 10 months of 2024, ensuring a year-on-year increase of 154%.

Of the two powertrains, all-electric cars made up 79.7% of all EV deliveries in the country. In total, 146,511 new BEVs entered the Turkish market, up from 68,309 between January and October 2024. This equated to a 114.5% volume increase.

Despite holding a smaller share of Turkey’s EV market, PHEV popularity significantly increased in 2025. This trend has gathered momentum since January 2024, and deliveries of the powertrain have hit monthly triple-digit figures ever since.

Between January and October, 37,237 PHEVs entered Turkey. This was up by a huge 820.3% from just 4,046 units across the same period in 2024.

Beguiling BEV market battle

After the first 10 months of 2025, the fight for top spot in Turkey’s BEV market proved a close one. In 2023 and 2024, domestic manufacturer Togg ended the year with the best-selling BEV in the country: the Togg T10X. In 2023, 2024, and so far this year, its closest rival has been the Tesla Model Y.

In the cumulative standings, the Model Y pulled ahead with 27,420 deliveries, compared with the Togg T10X’s 23,754 sales. The two models made up 18.7% and 16.2% of the overall Turkish BEV market, respectively.

Assessing October in isolation, Togg headed the BEV market with not one, but two models. The month saw the meteoric rise of the T10F. In just its second month on the market, it reached the BEV summit with 2,532 deliveries.

The T10F was followed by stablemate, the T10X, with 1,623 units, down a significant 47.5% year on year. With 871 deliveries and a 6% market share, the Volvo EX30 rounded out the top three.

Between January and October, Togg sold the most BEVs in Turkey. The homegrown manufacturer accumulated 27,480 sales, according to EV Volumes. Tesla emerged just 60 units behind with 27,420 all-electric cars sold.

Kia best of the rest

Behind the Tesla and Togg duel, Kia followed with its EV3. The Korean SUV has performed well since its Turkish debut in November 2024. In the opening 10 months of 2025, the BEV has recorded 6,786-unit sales and taken a 4.6% market share.

Following the EV3 was the first of three BYD models, namely the Yuan Plus. The Chinese BEV held 3.7% of the market with 5,467 units. Meanwhile, BYD took eighth and 10th place with the Seal U and Dolphin, respectively.

The KG Torres held fifth place in Turkey’s BEV rankings. The SUV has performed well since first recording sales in the market in April 2024. In the first 10 months of this year, it posted 4,888 deliveries, according to EV Volumes data. Just 752 units behind came the Mini Countryman, with 4,163 sales and a 2.8% market share.

BYD dominate Turkey’s PHEV market

In Turkey, BYD has also enjoyed irresistible PHEV dominance in the first 10 months of 2025. While the company sells a range of BEVs in the country, it currently only offers one PHEV: the Seal U. It first saw sales in April 2024 and has gone on to command Turkey’s new PHEV market. EV Volumes does include extended-range electric vehicles in its PHEV figures.

The Seal U accounted for 53.5% of all PHEV sales in the country, with 19,920 sales between January and October. This eclipsed the nearest challenger, the Volvo XC90. It posted with 2,751 units and accounted for 7.4% of the market, according to EV Volumes data.

Last year, BYD announced plans to invest the equivalent of $1 billion in a factory in Turkey. It would have the capacity to produce 150,000 vehicles a year, according to electrive. Turkey’s relatively low labour costs and favourable customs-union agreement with the EU could be a major draw for Chinese OEMs like BYD.

However, earlier this year, BYD’s Turkish aspirations seemed to be in limbo. In August, The Economist reported that little progress was being made in constructing the factory. If the carmaker does go ahead with these efforts, this would signal greater competition for domestic brands like Togg.

Peugeot’s PHEV podium

In the first 10 months of 2025, Peugeot took a spot in Turkey’s top three PHEV standings. It saw 2,094 sales of the 3008 locally, ensuring a 5.6% market share. The model was first sold in Turkey in January this year and has seen consistent triple-digit sales each month. The French car could be a strong Turkish PHEV market presence in 2026.

The Jaecoo J7 has also impressed this year after its deliveries began in August 2024. Between January and October this year, it moved 1,953 units to take fourth with a 5.2% share. This position could be under threat with increased competition from the likes of Skoda and Mercedes-Benz.

Another Chinese offering followed in the shape of the Qiyuan A07. It rounds out the top five with 1,686 units sold between January and October, and with it, a 4.5% market share.

Is China’s new PHEV struggle affecting brands’ EV sales?

China’s plug-in hybrid (PHEV) market appears to be slowing following another month of struggling growth. But how are these performances affecting domestic brands? Autovista24 special content editor Phil Curry examines the data.

In September, China’s PHEV market, including range-extended electric vehicles, once again showed signs of a slowdown. Its 0.4% year-on-year improvement was the lowest result since a 51.4% decline in June 2020, according to EV Volumes data. Meanwhile, the BEV market grew once again in September. In total, 836,711 models were sold, which equated to a rise of 26.5%.

Between January and September, China’s PHEV market saw 3,859,629 passenger car sales, a 21% increase year on year. At the end of the first half of 2025, this growth was at 35.7%, highlighting the powertrain’s third-quarter struggles.

Meanwhile, the BEV market saw an improvement of 37.4% across the first nine months of 2025.

The overall Chinese electric vehicle (EV) market rose by 30.3% over the first three quarters of the year. However, this was down by 10.1 percentage points (pp) compared to the growth in the first half of 2025.

The PHEV problem

Some of the most popular PHEV models in China suffered declines in the third quarter. Combine this with the growth recorded at the end of 2024, and the last quarter of 2025 may prove difficult.

The market’s issues have caused problems for some Chinese brands, especially those with a stronger PHEV offering. Both Li Auto and Aito have posted overall declines after three quarters of the year.

BYD, which dominates the PHEV market, saw its numbers fall between July and September, coinciding with the PHEV slowdown. For the second consecutive month, the BYD Song Plus did not make the monthly top 10, hampering its sales growth.

The PHEV sector could play a crucial role in determining how certain brands perform for the rest of the year. Meanwhile, a strong BEV market is helping some domestic marques go from strength to strength.

BYD’s third-quarter PHEV struggles

Nine months into 2025, BYD sold the largest volume of EVs of any brand in China. But its growth slowed dramatically in the third quarter. With 52.6% of its sales coming from PHEVs, is it responsible for the sector’s poor form in the same three-month period?

Between July and September, the carmaker saw volumes drop by 19.4%. This meant its figures for the nine-month period grew by just 2.5%. In the first half of 2025, the brand’s numbers were up by 19.9%

With a 24.9% EV market share in the first three quarters of 2025, it is comfortably the region’s plug-in leader. However, its hold has slipped by 6.8pp compared with the same period last year.

It is the PHEV market where BYD has struggled the most. Six of BYD’s PHEVs made the top 10 in September this year. Of these, four models lost volume year on year, while the Qin Plus recorded an improvement of 41%. Meanwhile, the BYD Sea Lion 06 first recorded sales in June this year.

But the brand’s problems are not just related to plug-in hybrids. In the BEV market, the BYD Seagull placed fifth in September as its sales shrank by 47.3% year on year.

However, this was countered by the BYD Yuan Up in fifth, which enjoyed a 61.8% improvement. Furthermore, the BYD Dolphin saw a 41.7% uptick in demand in eighth.

The carmaker is focusing on export markets, while it maintains a diverse portfolio of products in its domestic market. For now, BYD can rest on its laurels, with no real challenger yet in sight.

Geely’s standout performance

The standout brand so far this year has been Geely, including its Galaxy subsidiary. The carmaker has seen volumes increase by 234.7% in the first nine months of 2025. This equated to an 8.8% market share, up 5.4pp.

Geely took a stronger footing in the BEV market, with 69.5% of its EV sales coming from all-electric models. This was thanks to the Geely Geome Xingyuan, which was the best-selling BEV in China between January and September. It made up 59.1% of Geely’s BEV deliveries in the period, and 41.1% of its total sales in the nine months.

But Geely has endured PHEV struggles too. The Galaxy Starship 7, which led the market in January, has since slipped down the charts. The model did not place in the top 10 during September and sat in 10th in the cumulative results after nine months.

Yet the new Galaxy A7 may offer some hope. It made its way into the top 10 for the first time in August and placed again in September. Still, Geely’s performance after three quarters owes much to the Geome Xingyuan, which is likely to be China’s best-selling BEV at the end of 2025.

Wuling and Tesla’s rollercoaster ride

Wuling, incorporating its Baojung subsidiary, has seen inconsistent results so far this year. Yet after three quarters of 2025, the carmaker still saw volumes improve by 44.1%. Its market share sat at 5.9%, up by 0.5pp.

Like Geely, Wuling’s volumes came mostly from the BEV market. Of its EV sales, 94.1% were all-electric. The Wuling Mini was China’s third-best-selling BEV between January and September.

It was helped by its chart-topping performance in September, beating the Tesla Model Y by 570 units. This was an impressive result, considering the US brand’s quarterly push, which often sees it lead in the month.

Tesla was the fourth best-selling brand after three quarters of the year. The brand saw its volumes fall by 6.1% year on year between January and September 2025. Meanwhile, market share dropped by 1.8pp.

With a 100% focus on the BEV market, Tesla is not affected by the fluctuation in the PHEV sector. Its Model Y has performed well, but it is not leading the market as it has in the past.

Additionally, the Model 3 has seen its popularity decline. In September, its deliveries fell by 15.2% year on year, despite the brand’s end-of-quarter push.

Leapmotor leaps forward

Between January and September, Leapmotor took fifth in the brand table for EV sales, following a strong third quarter. It jumped domestic rival Chery, which took fifth in the first half. Leapmotor’s success was largely thanks to its BEVs. These models accounted for 78.6% of its EV sales, meanwhile Chery’s all-electric cars only accounted for 29.5%.

These results are more impressive considering neither brand was present in the BEV or PHEV cumulative model tables. It seems each has a higher volume of models that are popular further down the table.

In total, Leapmotor’s sales were up 116% between January and September, with a 3.8% market share. This was up by 1.5pp year on year. Chery, meanwhile, saw growth of 126.6%, with a 3.8% hold of the EV market too. This was up 1.4pp compared to the same period in 2024.

Seventh in the brands table went to Li Auto. The carmaker also struggled, with volumes down 12.3% year on year. With 92.2% of its sales coming from PHEVs, it appears the marque has been affected by the powertrain’s slowdown.

Xpeng was next, with volumes rising by 213.6% over the first three quarters. This gave the brand a 3% market share, jumping by 1.8pp. Aito was another to struggle, with a 3.6% decline in volumes. The carmaker is another with a majority of its sales coming from PHEVs. This may have led to its overall share falling by 1.1pp, to 2.9%.

Xiaomi saw the biggest gain of all carmakers in the top 10 after nine months of 2025. The BEV-focused marque saw volumes grow 281.8%, with its market share up 1.8pp, reaching 2.8%.

September surprise

China’s BEV market saw a surprising result in September. The Wuling Mini led the way thanks to 51,743 sales, a jump of 78.9% year on year. It led the Tesla Model Y, which saw 51,173 deliveries.

The US brand usually leads the end-of-quarter months thanks to its reporting style. The Model Y was able to achieve a 6.2% volume increase. However, this was not enough to top the BEV chart across January to September, symbolising its ongoing struggles.

Meanwhile, the Geely Geome Xingyuan placed third in the month. The model saw its first sales take place in the same month of 2024, albeit in small amounts. It achieved a 5.7% share of total BEV sales in September.

In the first nine months of 2025, the Geome Xingyuan continued to lead. It was 50,671 units ahead of the Tesla Model Y in second, having lost a little ground in the month. The Wuling Mini closed on the US crossover, trailing by just 5,851 units after nine months.

PHEV strength despite struggles

Despite the PHEV market’s struggles, the top two models performed well. Leading the pack in September was the BYD Qin Plus, with 28,201 sales. This was a 41% increase compared to the same month in 2024.

Following this was the Aito M8. In its sixth month on the market, it achieved 21,000 deliveries, giving it a 4.2% market share. Just 229 units behind in third was the BYD Destroyer 05. It achieved 19,771 sales, although this was a 1.7% year-on-year decline. It still held 4% of the market, a 0.1pp drop.

The results meant the BYD Qin Plus extended its lead at the top of the cumulative PHEV chart. However, a strong performance from the BYD Seal 6 in September saw it overtake the struggling BYD Song Plus to sit second. The latter model did not place in September’s PHEV top 10.

Is an EV revolution brewing in the Baltics?

Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia have all seen a notable electric vehicle (EV) uptake in recent years. What is behind this growth in the Baltics, and how bright is the future? Joanna Fabiszewska-Solares, market analyst at EV Volumes, examines the data with Autovista24 web editor James Roberts.

While EV adoption, made up of battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), remains inconsistent across Europe, some markets are pushing forward. In Portugal, every third car registered in the country last year was an EV. In Norway, BEVs account for almost 92% of new car registrations in 2024, according to EV Volumes data.

Three nations can be added to this trend: Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia. Although not officially affiliated, they are strongly bonded through regional cooperation, historical ties, plus shared strategic and geopolitical interests.

One further thing they share is recent, and significant, uptake in BEVs and PHEVs. In all three light-vehicle markets, accounting for passenger cars and light-commercial vehicles (LCVs), the EV share reached double digits.

Underneath the apparent EV prosperity of these three geographically contiguous economies lies a complex set of circumstances. While Latvia and Lithuania are experiencing overall positive new-car sales spanning all powertrains, Estonia is seeing a more downbeat picture. The trio of markets needs to handle varying incentives, charging infrastructure challenges, and the forging of domestic energy independence.

Latvia leading the way

The second largest Baltic state in terms of population, at nearly 1.86 million, Latvia has developed a significant EV base. According to EV Volumes, between January and August, EVs accounted for 18.4% of the nation’s light-vehicle market.

This meant 2,842 plug-in light vehicles were sold in the country in the eight months. This is compared to 1,156 at the same point last year, with a 10% share of the market.

Between January and August this year, 1,076 BEVs took to Latvia’s roads, claiming a 7% market share. This was just 159 fewer than the 2024 total, which stood at 1,235, suggesting a new high will be achieved this year.

2023 set a high watermark for BEV sales in Latvia, in what was a strong year for the entire domestic automotive market. The powertrain achieved a 9.5% share of light-vehicle sales, with 1,800 units shifted. However, the following year saw a decline in BEV adoption as well as an overall fall in light-vehicle registrations.

Weaker BEV sales in 2024 were largely the result of stricter EU-wide CO2 emission standards and impending 2025 emission targets. This contributed to a year-end push to sell internal-combustion engine (ICE) vehicles across many other EU countries, including Latvia.

Underlining a pan-Baltic trend, PHEVs have enjoyed notable popularity in Latvia so far this year. Between January and August, the powertrain passed the 1,000-delivery mark for the first time, hitting 1,766 units. This is already up from 741 registered across 2024, with the powertrain achieving an 11.4% market share already this year.

Incentives driving EV uptake in Latvia

In 2023, EVs accounted for 11.6% of light vehicles taking to Latvia’s roads. This share remained stable at 11.5% in 2024, thanks mostly to an increased PHEV share. In isolation, the hybrid powertrain took a 2.1% share in 2023, then a 4.3% in 2024.

Amid the wider new light-vehicle market falling by 9.5% in 2024, the BEV market share dropped 2.3 percentage points (pp) last year. Conversely, BEV deliveries fell from 1,800 in 2023 to 1,235 one year later.

This year, major policy changes and increased availability of affordable models are supporting increased EV ownership. In April, the Latvian government raised the total funding support for EV and hybrid adoption by €11 million. This included EV purchase grants, setting subsidy levels at €4,500 for BEVs, and €2,250 for PHEVs.

Coupled with this, falling interest rates have resulted in higher corporate purchases and leasing. This has driven total light-vehicle registrations upwards, despite inflationary pressure.

Aligned with these incentives, BEVs, PHEVs, and hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles (FCEVs) remain exempt from registration tax. The policy amendments also increased the Operation Vehicle Tax (VEN) for internal-combustion engine (ICE) powered vehicles from January 2025.

EV Volumes forecasts that EV sales in Latvia’s passenger car segment alone will grow by 27.5% in 2026. This will be driven by the availability of affordable EVs, as well as the tightening of EU-wide CO₂ regulations.

Lithuania’s vibrant EV market

So far this year, Lithuania, the largest of the Baltic states, has seen a similar PHEV-driven electrification trend to Latvia.

Between January and August this year, the country saw 27,582 light vehicles registered. This puts it on course to meet last year’s total of 30,101 units. So, what percentage of these sales were attributable to plug-in hybrids?

Between January and August this year, 2,532 PHEVs were registered in the country. This is already an increase of 77.1% on 2024’s total, which stood at 1,430. BEV registrations reached 1,616 deliveries in the first eight months of this year. This is on course to exceed 2024’s total of 1,720. However, this is likely to be below 2023’s record of 2,034 units.

EV sales accounted for 15% of the Lithuanian light-vehicle market between January and August this year. This was up from 9.5% registered in the first eight months of 2024. EV growth has been mostly driven by increased PHEV registrations. The powertrain represented a 9.2% market share in the first eight months of this year, compared with just a 4.1% across the same period last year.

Looking further back, EV registrations have surged since reaching 8.1% in 2022. EV sales in the passenger car segment are projected to continue growing. A year-on-year increase of 36.5% is expected by the end of 2025, according to EV Volumes.

Varied EV incentives in Lithuania

Since 2021, EV purchase subsidies have been available in Lithuania. These include €5,000 for individuals, as well as a €1,000 scrappage bonus, extending to €4,000 for companies. BEVs are also exempt from road tax until the end of 2025. From 2026, these vehicles will receive a 75% discount.

Additionally, green tax reforms were introduced in January this year. This included the Corporate Income Tax Act (CIT), which is aimed at increasing taxable deductions for lower-emission vehicles. The sliding scale provides a maximum deduction of up to €75,000 for zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs).

Like Latvia, Lithuania’s EV sector has also benefited from falling interest rates. A growing number of leasing and renewal contracts from rental companies has helped push EV registrations up too.

When it comes to EV charging infrastructure, Lithuania leads the way in the Baltics. The country benefits from a higher density than Latvia and Estonia. According to EV Volumes, Lithuania has a total of 1,618 public EV charging locations. This is compared to 1,180 in Estonia and 1,172 in Latvia.

Estonia’s complex EV landscape

Compared with Latvia and Lithuania, Estonia’s new-car market is experiencing notable headwinds. While the three Baltic states all suffer from high inflation, Estonia possesses the second-highest rate in the EU at 6.2%.

This factor is contributing to a decline in domestic new light-vehicle sales. According to EV Volumes data, between January and August 2025, total light vehicle sales fell by 39.6%. This equated to just 8,275 units taking to Estonia’s roads in the period.

In particular, ICE sales have dramatically fallen since January. This increasing void has boosted the overall market share of EVs in the country, albeit compared with a low baseline. Although the longer-term forecast for relative EV growth is promising.

However, in volume terms, EV sales in Estonia are declining. Between January and August this year, 1,262 EVs were registered. This is compared with 1,387 in the same period last year, representing a 9% decrease. However, the EV share of passenger cars in Estonia increased to 17.3%, compared to 10.2% at the same point last year.

Estonia powertrain breakdown

Across the first eight months of 2025, BEVs held a 7.1% share of the overall light-vehicle market. Meanwhile, PHEVs took a 10.2% slice. In 2024, EVs accounted for 9.7% of the overall market, which amounted to 2,454 units. This was up from 2022, when 1,995 new EVs were registered.

Like fellow Baltic states, Estonia has rolled out incentives to boost EV uptake. The Motor Vehicle Tax Act was introduced in January. Like incentives in Latvia and Lithuania, it offers reduced vehicle tax for owners of EVs.

According to EV Volumes forecasts, passenger car registrations in Estonia will increase moderately by 3.9% year-on-year in 2026. EVs are forecast to expand, supported by ongoing tax exemptions and the EU-wide tightening of CO₂ emission standards. As a result, BEV and PHEV numbers are expected to grow by 42.8% year-on-year.

Record EV sales as US new-car market growth continues

Driven by record electric vehicle (EV) sales, US new-car deliveries are expected to marginally increase in the country during September, continuing an upward trend. However, the overall picture is far from straightforward. In its latest forecast, J.D. Power unpicks the data.

Total new-vehicle sales in the US, including retail and non-retail transactions, are projected to reach 1,232,200 in September. This marks a 0.1% year-on-year increase according to the latest forecast from JD Power.

September 2025 has 24 selling days, one more than the same month last year. Comparing the same sales volume, without adjusting for the number of selling days, translates to an increase of 4.5% from 2024.

The seasonally adjusted annualised rate (SAAR) for total new-vehicle sales is expected to be 16.2 million units, up 0.3 million units from September 2024.

New-vehicle retail sales are projected to reach 1,031,400 in September, a year-on-year upswing of 0.4%. Comparing the same sales volume, without adjusting for the number of selling days, translates to an increase of 4.8% from 2024.

Strong demand and EV growth

‘In aggregate, September sales results point to another month of strong demand for new vehicles,’ said Thomas King, president of the data and analytics division at J.D. Power. ‘However, as has been the case for the past few months, assessing the health of the industry requires a closer look at the underlying market dynamics.

‘The biggest driver of September’s strong sales pace is temporarily inflated demand for electric vehicles. The federal EV tax credit expires at the end of the month, which is causing many shoppers to accelerate their purchase.’

The electric vehicle (EV) retail share is expected to reach 12.2% in September. This is an increase of 2.6 percentage points (pp) compared with 12 months ago. In total, this equates to a 27.5% boost in EV sales, selling day-adjusted, from one year previous.

‘The second key driver is affordability,’ added King, ‘although again, the EV dynamic means aggregate results need careful evaluation. In totality, average vehicle prices continue to rise, discounts remain low and monthly finance payments are at record highs, all of which affects the overall sales pace.’

New-vehicle price increases

The average new-vehicle retail transaction price in September is expected to reach $45,795 (€39,087), up $1,310, or 2.9% from September 2024. The average manufacturer incentive per vehicle is on track to reach $3,116, an increase of just $24 from August, and a decrease of $3 from a year ago.

Expressed as a percentage of the manufacturer’s suggested retail price (MSRP), incentive spending is at 6.1%, a decrease of 0.2 pp compared with one year ago. Average monthly finance payments are on track to reach $756, an increase of $21 from September 2024, and the highest on record for that month.

In response, more buyers are opting for extended 84-month loan terms, which are expected to account for 11.0% of finance sales in September. This is the second-highest level on record for the month.

‘The decline in manufacturer incentive spending to just 6.1% of MSRP is notable, but more notable are the limited discounts offered on non-EVs,’ confirmed King. ‘Incentives as a percentage of MSRP for non-EVs fell to just 4.8% of MSRP in September, down 0.8pp from a year ago.

‘Collectively, these pricing dynamics are helping manufacturers preserve profitability amid tariff related cost pressure, but at the expense of higher sales volumes. Nevertheless, there are some positives for new-vehicle demand, most notably lower interest rates, stronger used-vehicle prices and improved loan availability.’

The average interest rate for new-vehicle loans in September is 6.51%, a decrease of 25 basis points (one basis point is equal to 0.01%) from 12 months previous.

Used-vehicle price rises

‘The average used-vehicle price is trending towards $29,668, up $739 from a year ago,’ said King. ‘This reflects the combination of reduced supply of recent model year used vehicles, due to lower new-vehicle production during the pandemic, fewer lease maturities and manufacturers moderating discounts.’

Rising used-vehicle prices are benefiting new-car buyers, with average trade-in equity climbing $534 year on year in September to $8,430. However, that gain is partly offset by larger outstanding loan balances on vehicles being traded in. As a result, the share of new-vehicle buyers facing negative equity is projected to hit 25.9%, up 1.5pp from September 2024.

‘Access to new-vehicle loans for buyers with weaker credit also appears to be improving. The percentage of buyers with sub 650 FICO scores is trending towards 14%, up 3.1pp from last year and the highest level for September since 2016 at 14.9%,’ King affirmed 

‘The stable sales pace, combined with elevated average transaction prices mean consumers are on track to spend nearly $45 billion on new vehicles this month, 8.5% higher than a year ago and the second highest on record for the month of September.

‘Total retailer profit per unit, which includes vehicle gross plus finance and insurance income, is expected to be $2,240, up $12 from September 2024 and up $79 from August 2025. Total aggregate retailer profit from new-vehicle sales for this month is projected to be $2.2 billion, up 6% from September 2024,’ added King.

EV factor set to impact October results

Looking ahead to October, EVs are expected to remain a defining factor in the US new-car market. However their impact on overall sales is likely to change direction.

‘A very significant decline in EV sales is expected for October,’ reflecting both the effect of the federal EV tax credit expiring and the start of payback from all the EV purchases that were accelerated into the summer,’ highlighted King. ‘The net effect will be heavily influenced by the extent to which manufacturers attempt to offset the loss of the federal EV tax credit, if at all.’

‘October sales will also be affected by manufacturers’ pricing and incentive decisions on non-EVs. The current low level of non-EV discounting provides plenty of potential for manufacturers to escalate incentives to bolster demand. However, tariff-related cost pressure remains significant, meaning the current pricing and incentive environment is likely to persist for much of the final quarter of the year,’ He concluded.

Sales details

  • Fleet sales are expected to total 200,819 units in September, down 1.5% from September 2024. Fleet volume is expected to account for 16.3% of total light-vehicle sales, down 0.3ppfrom a year ago.
  • Internal combustion engine vehicles are projected to account for 71.7% of new-vehicle retail sales, a decrease of 4.9pp from a year ago. Plug-in hybrids (PHEV) are on pace to make up 2.6% of sales, up 0.5pp from September 2024, while EVs are expected to account for 12.2% of sales, up 2.pp, and full hybrids (HEVs) are expected to account for 12.4% of new-vehicle retail sales, up 0.7pp.
  • US final assembly vehicles are expected to make up 55% of sales in September, up 4.1pp from a year ago.
  • Trucks and SUVs are on pace to account for 82.1% of new-vehicle retail sales, up 1.6pp from September 2024.

Retail details

  • Retail inventory levels are currently at 2.21 million units, a 17.5% increase from September 2024.
  • The industry’s inventory days of supply is 60 days in September, up from 54 days a year ago.
  • The average new-vehicle retail transaction price in September is expected to reach $45,795, up $1,310 from September 2024. Transaction price as a percentage of MSRP fell to 89.2%, down 0.5pp from a year ago.
  • Retail buyers are on pace to spend $45 billion on new vehicles, up $3.5 billion from September 2024.
  • Average incentive spending per unit in September is expected to reach $3,116, down $3 from September 2024. Incentive spending as a percentage of the average MSRP is expected to decrease to 6.1%, down 0.2pp from September 2024.
  • Average incentive spending per unit on trucks and SUVs in September is expected to be $3,244, down $54 from a year ago, while the average spending on cars is expected to be $2,492, up $167 from a year ago.
  • Leasing is expected to account for 23.9% of sales this month, up 0.6pp from a year ago.

Dealer details

  • The average time a new vehicle remains in the dealer’s possession before sale is expected to be 50 days in September, up from 49 days a year ago.
  • 30.8% of vehicles sold in less than 10 days in September, down 1.5pp from a year ago.
  • Average monthly finance payments are on pace to be $756, up $21 from September 2024. The average interest rate for new-vehicle loans is expected to be 6.51%, down 0.25pp from a year ago.
  • So far in September, average used-vehicle retail prices are $29,668, up $739 from a year ago. Trade-in equity is trending towards $8,430, which is up $534 from a year ago.
  • 25.9% of trade-ins are expected to carry negative equity this month, an increase of 1.5pp from September 2024.
  • Finance loans with terms greater than or equal to 84 months are expected to reach 11.0% of finance sales this month, up 1.5pp from September 2024.

The US EV outlook

‘As the final month of the federal EV incentive draws to a close, EVs are on pace to exceed 12% in the US for the first time ever,’ confirmed Tyson Jominy, senior vice president of data and analytics at JD Power. ‘While this would mark another record, the absence of a significant end-of-incentive surge underscores the underlying softness in consumer demand for the technology.

‘Inventory remains the key storyline as the quarter winds down. Barring a significant final sales week, more than 163,000 EVs remain on dealer lots, with approximately 100,000 of those from legacy automakers. The looming question is, “What happens to this inventory in the final quarter of 2025?” With federal support expiring, manufacturers may be compelled to absorb some or all the lost value to maintain momentum.

‘In the context of the recently released J.D. Power 2025 U.S. Automotive Brand Loyalty Study, there is a bright spot. EVs from franchised automakers are showing 55% nameplate loyalty, outperforming the industry average by 6pp. This suggests that while the broader market may be hesitant, brand equity is still resonating with EV buyers.

‘PHEVs also affected by the tax credit changes, are seeing less disruption. Their 2.6% retail share is 0.5pp below the all-time high set in December 2024, indicating a more stable demand curve.

‘Meanwhile, HEVs continue to gain traction. Retail share stands at 13.8%, up 2.1pp from September 2024 and holding near record highs. This growth underscores the segment’s resilience, even as consumers adjust to the phase-out of the federal incentive for electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids,’ concluded Jominy.

Can battery health certificates answer big used-EV questions?

Battery certificates and state of health (SOH) checks are at the forefront of a growing used electric vehicle (EV) market. How will they help answer the big used-EV questions from retailers and buyers? Tom Hooker, Autovista24 journalist, investigates the subject.

For the modern used-car buyer, it has become commonplace to access a plethora of information about any model online. This research can be done through portals or directly from retailers. Yet, the sector is in the midst of a big shift.

As battery-electric vehicle (BEV) and plug-in hybrid (PHEV) registrations increase across new-car markets, the supply of used EVs rises. This presents a new challenge for retailers. They need to convince consumers to buy EVs, while also learning how to accurately price them and make profits.

Battery SOH checks could be a solution to this challenge. They can provide customers with peace of mind while revealing a car’s history, value, and selling potential to retailers.

‘EVs are not degrading the same way as petrol or diesel vehicles. Mileage is not sufficient to have a clear view of the current health of an EV. That means for the exact same mileage, you can buy two EVs with a very different fate,’ BIB batteries CEO Pierre-Amans Lapeyre told Autovista24.

‘Knowing the SOH, you can have the history, the current value and the future. It gives you what should be the real residual value of the vehicle. I would much rather have the SOH of an EV than know its mileage, because from what we have seen on the market, two vehicles with the exact same SOH could have a completely different mileage,’ he added.

Fostering used-EV uncertainty

‘Nowadays, you can advertise a car with photographs, with descriptions, and with diagnostics. Everybody can do that. So, I think as an industry we have solved the problem fairly well with the technology available,’ outlined Roland Gagel, CARA board member at the Used Vehicle Retail Summit.

Roland Gagel, CARA board member

‘We see that this market is very rational, buyers are looking for transparent offers and want to see pictures and descriptions,’ he added. Gagel then explained that BEVs are a different prospect, with the most important aspect of the car being the battery.

He highlighted that current advertisements of used EVs are not clear enough and can foster uncertainty among potential buyers. Late entrants to the EV space could be particularly impacted.

Convincing late adopters

Gagel explained that when buying or selling a three-year-old petrol or diesel car at 70,000km, you can assume it has a well-maintained engine. This means you can easily drive the car for ten more years.

However, the buyer confidence around longevity is very different for electric devices. Mobile phones are one such example. ‘We are not talking about the early adopters, the people who already wanted to have an EV five years ago,’ said Gagel.

‘We are talking about the people who now start to think about it and will maybe finally be convinced. They know that after four or five years, their mobile phone is dead, and the battery is not okay. So, what does that mean for my three or four-year-old EV?

‘I am maybe going to want to resell it after eight or nine years and want to buy another one. So, we have this problem, which is very often the range, because in the end, that is what the driver feels.’

There are tools available to help drivers understand more about the lifespan and health of their EV. Most models now show average energy consumption on their infotainment screen. This can be divided by the total energy storage of the battery, which provides the real, approximate range of the vehicle.

So, customers can be provided with a wealth of information on the condition of a used EV. However, how this information is used and shared by the retailer makes all the difference.

Limited certificate usage

Gagel showed an example of an online used-car portal from a remarketing company. Here, the price of a BEV was marked down by €2,000 without any information on why the model’s price had been reduced.

Additionally, Gagel searched the mobile.de website for a popular German BEV. With certain parameters selected, he got 160 results. Out of this, 50 had a battery SOH certificate. However, in most cases, the actual SOH value could not be found in the description.

‘Imagine you sell a car without mileage, and the buyer calls the dealer to know the mileage. What do you do with such an advertiser? Just skip it and go to the next,’ he commented.

Gagel then went on to show the carmaker’s own website for its used cars. He selected two of their BEV models, which gave him 2,600 search results. However, only 40 of these models had a battery certificate shown on the portal. Lapeyre also noted the lack of SOH certificates on online adverts.

‘There are a lot of studies about the fear of individuals buying EVs, they do not trust the lifespan of the battery. I would say around 50% of dealers today put SOH on their vehicle adverts. You will not sell your EV if you do not have this information,’ he stated.

Regulatory impacts

The introduction of new regulations could also help improve the clarity between used EV sellers and potential customers. SOH checks would be a pivotal technology in achieving this clarity.

For example, the upcoming Euro 7 regulations state that passenger cars must retain at least 80% of their original battery capacity after 5 years or 100,000 km, whichever comes first. Then, after 8 years or 160,000 km, the battery capacity must be at least 72%.

Furthermore, the regulation states that EVs must have SOH monitors onboard. Data from these monitors must be displayed to users, retrievable from diagnostics, and included in the vehicle’s Environmental Vehicle Passport.

‘The regulation that comes with Euro 7 and the battery passport will foster the transparency of the SOH. The regulation will start in 2027, so in the used-car sector, you will see it from 2028 with the first short-term rentals,’ noted Gagel.

‘But I think the real effect will come in 2029 and 2030. So, we have five years to go to sell used cars without the battery pass and Euro 7,’ he added.

Increasing consumer transparency

‘There is an unsourced fear about the end of warranty for EVs. When they end, people are freaked out, and it is not rational,’ said Lapeyre.

According to a 2024 McKinsey & Company survey, 31% percent of prospective EV buyers say they are likely or very likely to consider a used EV for their next vehicle purchase. For those EV sceptics, 49% were concerned about unclear battery degradation.

So, the industry cannot wait another five years to start improving the used EV sales experience and calming EV concerns.

‘The key point for us is how to get this into a B2C sale and how to show the positive part of the batteries. How do we convey this message? How can we train the salespeople to sell this off to the consumer? That will be very important for the industry,’ said Gagel.

‘On the dealership side, I think they need to provide their clients with battery certificates. They need to train their salespeople so that they can show and express the value of an EV to their clients,’ commented Lapeyre.

‘What can you do as an industry? For me, it is very clear, used-car offers need to become more transparent. They are not transparent today,’ said Gagel.

‘In the end, if the buyers do not have clear information about the battery, they will assume there is a problem. The clearer we are and the more we are pushing in the direction of transparency, the more likely it will be that BEVs will recover from their residual values.

‘It is not just good to measure the vehicle, but we have to make sure it gets into the vehicle description, so the customer knows we have good cars to sell,’ concluded Gagel.

Can European car sales survive economic and political uncertainty?

Have forecasts for European light-vehicle sales retained their marginal growth amid economic and political uncertainty? Neil King, head of forecasting at EV Volumes, reviews the latest data with Autovista24 journalist Tom Hooker.

EV Volumes forecasts that Western and Central European light-vehicle sales, made up of passenger cars and light-commercial vehicles (LCVs), will decline by 0.3% year-on-year in 2025.

This is a change from the March 2025 outlook, which projected a 0.7% growth. It is also below the 1.7% increase recorded in 2024, and significantly behind the 14% registrations growth in 2023.

A total of 14.91 million new light vehicles are expected to hit the road this year, a drop of around 148,800 units from the March forecast. Moreover, this figure is still well below the 18.04 million light vehicles registered in 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic and supply-chain crisis.

EV Volumes does not expect the European market to return to that volume level within the current forecast period, which stretches to 2040. A 1.9% growth in European light-vehicle sales is projected in 2026, down from the March projection of a 2.1% increase. This improvement depends on a complex mix of regulatory and economic factors.

Current European uncertainty

There is uncertainty surrounding the impact of changing goods tariffs, developments relating to the war in Ukraine, and increasing tensions in the Middle East. Furthermore, EV Volumes assumes that a rising risk of rising inflation, oil prices, and energy costs will lead to weaker private consumption across the region.

Additionally, the OECD’s June 2025 economic outlook predicts that GDP in the Euro area will grow by only 1% in 2025. Due to weaker goods exports to the US and a struggling services sector, registrations of LCVs are already being affected by trade frictions and tariffs. Passenger car sales are expected to follow suit.

Meeting the lower CO2 emissions targets and circularity requirements mandated by the European Commission will also necessitate a major increase in electric vehicle (EV) sales.

This could trigger a price war, supported by lower lithium costs. Carmakers may also restrict the supply of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles to avoid costly emissions fines.

Ultimately, the outcome will depend on how OEMs balance short-term profit with long-term compliance and market shifts. Considering these developments, has the European EV outlook changed?

European EV sales growth

European EV sales of light vehicles are forecasted to grow by 23.1% year-on-year in 2025 to 3.77 million units. This is up from the 3.53 million sales and 15.1% volume increase projected in March. It also marks a turnaround from the market’s 2.4% decline in 2024.

EVs are expected to represent 25.3% of total European light-vehicle sales this year, a positive revision from the 23.4% share forecast in March. Furthermore, it is a notable improvement from the 20.5% EV market hold in 2024 and the 21.3% share in 2023.

Driven by new model launches, lower prices, and emissions targets, EV Volumes forecasts that EVs will reach a 29.2% share of European light-vehicle sales in 2026. This is significantly higher than the 26.4% market hold predicted in March.

In 2027, the EV share is expected to rise to 35.4%. Again, this is up from the previous forecast’s projected share of 33.3%.

Battery-electric vehicle (BEV) volumes are forecast to grow by 20.9% year-on-year in 2025, accounting for 67.4% of the 2025 EV mix. Meanwhile, plug-in hybrid vehicle (PHEV) sales are expected to increase by 27.8%.

Looking further forward, EVs are expected to capture 62.9% of European light-vehicle sales in 2030, up from the March forecast of a 60.5% share. This market hold is predicted to increase to 93.5% in 2035, up from 93.1% in the previous outlook. In 2040, EVs are projected to account for 99.4% of the total European market.

The forecast for 2035 and beyond includes some tolerance for timing interpretations of the ICE new-car sales ban and allows for exemptions for vehicles that may be deemed unsuitable for full electrification.

Regulations affecting European EVs

In March 2025, the European Commission unveiled the Industrial Action Plan for the European Automotive Sector. It proposed measures to support the industry’s competitiveness and transition to zero-emission mobility.

One of these was the relaxation of the 2025 CO2 emissions targets for cars and vans, which was officially approved in May 2025. More specifically, the compliance period has been extended from one to three years, providing manufacturers with greater flexibility to avoid fines.

However, some measures were not included in the Action Plan, such as the discussion surrounding the potential exclusion of PHEVs from the 2035 new-car ICE ban.

Consequently, EV Volumes’ forecast for BEV adoption anticipates moderate share growth in 2025 and 2026.

Then, a more significant increase is expected in 2027, as manufacturers strive to meet the average CO2 emissions targets of 93.6 g/km for cars and 153.9 g/km for LCVs over the three-year period.

To meet these targets, EV Volumes calculated that the BEV share of EU light vehicles needs to average at least 20% between 2025 and 2027. This means a 20.5% share is required for passenger cars and an 18% market hold is needed for LCVs.

Yet OEMs are not forecast to achieve this 20% average for all light vehicles by 2027 without additional EU-wide stimulus. This is mainly due to slower LCV electrification. Instead, EV Volumes anticipates that the targets will be met over the 2025 to 2028 period.

This forecast could be revised if further exemptions and lower targets are put in place. New EU-wide or national incentives could also alter EV share projections.

Incentives altering European projections?

An example of these incentives can be found in Italy, where €597 million in funding for a scrappage scheme has been announced, as reported by Il Sore 24 Ore.

Meanwhile, Germany is considering the reintroduction of BEV incentives in 2025, after subsidies stopped at the end of 2023. However, the implementation of new funding may be delayed due to economic conditions.

Furthermore, more affordable BEVs are expected to enter Europe. Leading Chinese OEMs like BYD are also planning to expand in the region.

On the other hand, PHEV registrations are exceeding expectations. This was the major factor in June’s upward revision for 2025 EV sales. The additional volume is driven by the eased CO2 targets, expanded PHEV offerings from both European and Chinese players, and delayed launches of low-cost BEVs.

Additionally, the UK’s ban on new petrol and diesel models from 2030 still allows all hybrid types to be sold until 2035.

The country’s government has also announced the return of EV incentives from 16 July. The scheme will reduce the cost of some new EVs by up to £3,750 under grants. This signals a change in policy for the UK and will impact future forecasts.

Varied European country outlooks

The current EV Volumes outlook sees the UK registering 702,911 EVs in 2025, a sharp increase of just over 131,000 units compared to its 2024 total. The powertrain grouping is expected to take a 39.6% market share in 2025, up from 32.5% in the previous year.

Italy will hope its new incentives can help to boost EV adoption, which has been sluggish compared to other major light-vehicle markets. EVs are forecast to represent 11.6% of the market in 2025, up from 8.7% in 2024. Sales are projected to increase by just over 44,000 units to 166,104 registrations.

An effective implementation of subsidies can be seen in Spain, which has helped BEV and PHEV volumes to soar. The reintroduction of the incentive scheme includes grants, tax breaks, and support for charging.

In 2025, the country is projected to see a year-on-year gain of over 80,000 units to 201,801 EV registrations. The EV share is expected to rise from 13.6% in 2024 to 21.9% this year.

Even without incentives, EV sales in Germany are on track to bounce back to 2022 levels. The powertrain grouping is forecast to record 829,398 sales in 2025, an increase of over 246,000 units compared to last year. EVs are expected to account for 30.2% of the total light-vehicle market, up from 21.4%.

On the other hand, France is currently suffering a decline in EV volumes. This is reflected in the current outlook, which sees it dropping nearly 5,600 sales year on year to 456,953 units. However, this is largely due to the wider light-vehicle market declining as the EV share is predicted to grow to 32.3% from 31.4% in 2024.

LCV EV uptake lags

LCVs still lag in EV uptake. A registrations growth of 43.7% growth in 2023 was promising, especially compared to a 16.2% improvement for passenger cars. However, both the volume and share of electric LCVs declined more than passenger cars in 2024.

High costs relative to diesel models and limited driving range hindered adoption. Nonetheless, new models, such as the Ford Transit, Renault Trafic, VW Transporter and updated Stellantis electric vans, are expected to drive demand.

EV Volumes forecasts that the EV share of LCVs will rise from 5.4% in 2024 to 10% in 2025. Its market hold is projected to increase to 13.5% in 2026 and reach 52.1% by 2030.

While the new-car ICE ban will accelerate the shift to electric, EV Volumes anticipates a 92.3% EV share for LCVs in 2035, compared to 93.7% for passenger cars. This is expected to rise to 99.1% in 2040.

The role of e-fuels and other CO2-neutral ICE technologies is expected to remain limited, depending largely on national tax policies. EV Volumes also expects the deployment of hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles to be limited in light commercial vehicles, with their share peaking at just 0.01%.

Is global turmoil a threat to future EV sales?

US tariff uncertainty remains, conflicts continue, and economic headwinds prevail. These are just some of the factors affecting global light-vehicle sales outlooks. But how will they impact electric vehicle (EV) figures? Neil King, head of forecasting at EV Volumes, reviews his projections with Autovista24 journalist Tom Hooker.

The global light-vehicle market, made up of passenger cars and light-commercial vehicles (LCV), is forecast to improve by a modest 1.1% in 2025. EV Volumes expects over 90.15 million units to be registered this year.

This is down from its previous 1.2% growth prediction made in an interim report in April. The figure is also a 0.7 percentage point (pp) drop from its March forecast. This equates to a loss of around 40,000 units from April’s report.

This is due to continued subdued order intake in Europe, caused by high interest rates and elevated living costs.

The downturn also takes into account US automotive tariffs, which were announced in March, as well as ongoing uncertainty surrounding broader trade duties since April, growing instability in the Middle East, and the continued Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Global EV growth continues

Meanwhile, Global EV deliveries, which combine battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), are forecast to rise by 19.8% in 2025 to 21.29 million units. This represents an increasingly positive outlook, with a 19.2% improvement forecasted in April.

However, this improvement would still be below 2024’s 25.3% increase. This was, however, with a lower total volume of 17.78 million EVs registered.

This year’s double-digit global EV growth is expected to come despite some governments phasing out purchase incentives and tax breaks amid mounting national debt, particularly in Europe. Non-Triad markets and robust PHEV demand in Europe have held up the forecast, offsetting downgrades in China and North America.

While EVs took a 19.9% share of the global light-vehicle market in 2024, the powertrain grouping is predicted to capture 23.6% of overall sales this year. This figure is stable from April’s forecast.

BEVs are expected to take a 65.1% share of the light vehicle EV market in 2025, with a year-on-year delivery improvement of 22.9%. PHEVs are forecast to see slower growth of 14.3% giving them a 34.9% share.

This is a drop from the 36.6% PHEV share in 2024, when the powertrain outpaced BEVs in terms of growth. The former enjoyed a 55.1% surge in volumes compared to BEVs’ 12.8% improvement.

Longer-term forecasts

Looking further forward, the global EV share is forecast to reach 26.4% in 2026, before improving to 42.2% in 2030, reaching 64.2% in 2035, and 83.1% in 2040. However, budget pressures and policy shifts may threaten investment in incentives and charging infrastructure, which could impact the outlook.

The global volume of EVs is set to rise from 21.29 million units in 2025 to 40.15 million registrations in 2030. A total of 64.02 million deliveries are expected in 2035, increasing to 86.7 million units in 2040. This figure is almost five times the number of EV sales recorded in 2024. 

Annual traction battery demand is forecast to increase from just under 0.87 TWh in 2024 to around 5.77 TWh in 2040. The latter is nearly seven times the actual annual demand seen last year.

EV Volumes also forecasts that global battery demand for light vehicles will surpass 1TWh in 2025.

This is driven by the quest for longer electric ranges in all vehicle segments. Yet, the trend for larger batteries is slowing as they gain in efficiency. Furthermore, lower costs facilitate the electrification of smaller vehicles, where profit margins are tighter.

The number of EVs in operation is increasing rapidly. However, their share of the overall light-vehicle fleet is developing with a considerable delay.

There are 1.33 billion light vehicles on the road today, with plug-ins accounting for just 4.1% of this total. EV Volumes predicts it will take until 2043 for more than half of the global fleet to be electric. This is calculated using their current forecast for EV growth, which assumes normal scrappage rates.

Europe set for decline?

In Western and Central Europe, EV Volumes expects that light-vehicle sales will decline by 0.3% year-on-year in 2025. This is lower than their interim April 2025 forecast, which projected a 0.1% increase. It is also a significant drop from the predicted growth of just under 0.7% in their March forecast.

A total of 14.91 million light vehicles are expected to take to European roads in 2025. This is slightly down from April’s forecast of 14.99 million units and still well below the 18.04 million light vehicles registered in 2019.

This downward revision comes as uncertainty persists regarding the impact of changing goods tariffs, developments in Ukraine, and escalating tensions in the Middle East. EV Volumes also assumes a growing risk of rising inflation, oil prices, and energy costs, which will lead to weaker private consumption across the region.

Furthermore, the OECD’s June 2025 economic outlook predicts that GDP in the Euro area will grow by only 1% in 2025.

Due to weaker goods exports to the USA and a struggling services sector, EV Volumes sees registrations of LCVs already being affected by trade frictions and tariffs. Passenger-car sales are expected to follow suit.

European regulatory and economic factors

Moreover, EV Volumes does not expect the European market to return to its 2019 volume level within the current forecast horizon, which stretches to 2040. In 2026, a 1.9% growth in European light-vehicle sales is projected. This hinges on a complex combination of regulatory and economic factors.

Meeting the required lower CO2 emissions targets and circularity requirements mandated by the European Commission will necessitate a major increase in EV sales. This could trigger a price war, supported by lower lithium costs. OEMs may also restrict the supply of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles to avoid costly emissions fines.

On a positive note, Italy has announced €597 million in funding for a scrappage scheme, as reported by Il Sore 24 Ore. Meanwhile, Germany is considering the reintroduction of BEV incentives in 2025, after subsidies stopped at the end of 2023. However, the implementation of new subsidies may be delayed due to economic conditions.

Furthermore, more affordable BEVs are expected to enter Europe. Leading Chinese OEMs like BYD are also expanding in the region.

On the other side of the EV market, PHEV registrations are exceeding expectations. This additional volume is driven by the eased CO2 targets, expanded PHEV offerings from both European and Chinese players, and delayed launches of low-cost BEVs.

Additionally, the UK’s ban on new petrol and diesel models from 2030 still allows all hybrid types to be sold until 2035. The country’s government recently announced the cost of some new EVs will soon be reduced by up to £3,750 under grants. This signals a change in policy.

Altered European EV forecast?

As a result of these factors, EV Volumes expects that European electric light-vehicle sales will grow by 22.8% year-on-year in 2025 to 3.77 million units. This is a notable increase from April’s forecast of 3.51 million registrations, translating to a year-on-year rise of 14.3%.

EVs are predicted to represent 25.3% of total light-vehicle sales this year, up from a 20.5% share in 2024. In the previous forecast, the increase was projected to be 23.4%.

Broken down, BEV volumes are forecast to grow by 20.6% year-on-year and account for 67.4% of the 2025 EV mix. Meanwhile, PHEV sales are expected to increase by 27.7%.

Driven by new model launches, lower prices, and stricter emissions targets, EV Volumes forecasts that EVs will reach a 29.2% share of European light-vehicle sales in 2026. Then, BEVs and PHEVs are expected to account for more than one in three registrations in 2027.

The EV share is then projected to rise to 62.9% in 2030, reaching 93.5% in 2035, and 99.4% in 2040. The forecast for 2035 and beyond includes some tolerance for timing interpretations of the ICE sales ban and allows for exemptions for vehicles that may be considered unsuitable for full electrification.

China boosts domestic production

Considering the current economic headwinds, China’s government has focused on boosting domestic automotive consumption. Additional support has been directed toward state-owned OEMs.

However, trade friction with the US has added uncertainty, and China’s economic growth in 2025 is expected to fall short of the 5% target.

The country’s scrappage scheme, which offers higher trade-in bonuses for EVs than for petrol vehicles, has supported the market’s strength alongside a favourable cost of ownership and increasingly competitive pricing.

After launching in April 2024, the program has been extended beyond the original January 2025 deadline, as reported by the International Council on Clean Transportation. However, it has been suspended in several cities, which could disproportionately reduce demand for EVs given their higher bonus levels, electrive reported.

A stable outlook?

Taking all these factors into account, EV Volumes maintained its 2025 Chinese light-vehicle market forecast of 26.7 million units, an improvement of 2.7% year-on-year.

EVs are forecast to represent 51.4% of all light-vehicle sales this year, up 7.1pp from its 2024 market share. This is then projected to increase to 72.8% in 2030, before growing to 88.3% in 2035, and 95.5% in 2040.

Chinese OEMs continue launching new PHEVs and extended-range electric vehicles (EREVs). Yet, BEVs are regaining momentum, bolstered by aggressive discounting initiated by BYD. As such, BEVs are forecast to account for 61.5% of EV sales in 2025 after reaching a 57.7% share of the EV market in 2024. This share will then grow to two thirds by 2030.

Forecast volumes in China are based on retail sales, not wholesales. This excludes exports and inventory build-up, which explains the differences from the typically higher wholesale-based figures published by other agencies.

Tariffs impact Northern America

The Northern American automotive market, which includes the US and Canada, is impacted by the 25% tariffs imposed by the US on imported vehicles.

To reduce the impact, there are adjustments for US parts content in Canadian and Mexican-built models, but even vehicles assembled in the US do not escape unscathed. This is because the tariffs still apply to non-US components.

Average new car prices in the US are expected to increase by 5% by the end of 2025, which in turn could reduce sales by 8%, according to J.D. Power representatives.

On a more positive note, a reimbursement scheme was implemented by the US government at the end of April, which offers OEMs tariff relief over two years. Carmakers assembling vehicles in the US can receive a credit worth up to 3.75% of the vehicle’s manufacturer’s suggested retail price. This then drops to 2.5% in year two.

So far, prices have largely held steady. However, discounting has weakened and an increase in vehicle demand referred to as the “pre-tariff bump” had already subsided by June.

Meanwhile, a Republican-backed Senate bill will see EV tax credits of up to $7,500 (€6,420) disappear by 30 September. This has led to carmakers urging buyers to take delivery of a new model by the deadline, according to Reuters. Any resulting pull-forward effect in 2025 is likely to be offset by weaker demand due to higher vehicle prices.

In Canada, funding for the iZEV programme ran out in January 2025, with BEV uptake falling and no replacement scheme announced.

Revising downward

Considering these developments, EV Volumes lowered its 2025 light-vehicle sales forecast for Northern America to 17.66 million units, a decline of 1% year on year. This would be a weak performance for the market after its 2.9% growth in 2024.

The long-term outlook has also been revised downward, by around 29,000 sales in 2026 and 65,000 units in 2027.

The combined BEV and PHEV share is now expected to fall from 10.2% in 2024 to 9.9% this year. In 2026, the EV market hold is projected to rise modestly to 11.1%. This is expected to be primarily supported by a more affordable Tesla model.

The EV share is then forecast to climb to 22.5% in 2030 and 41% in 2035. BEVs are PHEVs are predicted to make up 60.3% of the overall Northern American market in 2040, some distance below the expected global EV share of over 80%.

Non-triad outlook improves

In non-Triad markets, light-vehicle sales are expected to increase by 1.8% in 2025 to 30.88 million units.

This was an upward revision of 0.1pp from April, when the weaker global economic outlook, especially considering US trade tariffs, led EV Volumes to downgrade its growth projections. However, June’s forecast is still below the 2.3% improvement projected in the March forecast.

The EV share in non-Triad countries is forecast to reach 6.6% in 2025. This would be ahead of the 5.9% market hold projected in April’s outlook, and the 4.5% share recorded last year. Total electric light-vehicle sales are predicted to reach 2.03 million units this year, around 234,000 deliveries higher than the previous forecast.

This total would translate to an EV sales growth of 49.5% year on year, even higher than the 34.2% increase recorded in 2024. BEVs are forecast to see volumes rise by 43% in 2025, while PHEVs are projected to enjoy an even greater increase of 72.9%. In turn, the BEV share of the EV light-vehicle market is expected to drop from 78.5% to 75.2%.

EV subsidies implemented

Several factors may have influenced this upward revision and projection of strong growth. Firstly, Japan increased the budget for EV subsidies under the Clean Vehicle Energy Subsidy Programme in early 2025. Elsewhere, India cut import duties for premium EVs as part of a new manufacturing programme in June 2025, as written by Business Standard.

Indonesia introduced a VAT exemption for low-emission vehicles in January 2025 and a reduced VAT rate thereafter. Finally, in response to US tariffs, South Korea launched temporary stimulus measures, including financing support and higher EV subsidies, Reuters reported.

However, budget constraints driven by higher defence spending and macroeconomic concerns may limit future incentive schemes. The non-Triad EV share is projected to reach 16.8% in 2030, then 41.6% in 2035, and 76.7% in 2040. This means the region’s EV market generally lags the global adoption curve by about five years.

The regions and technology pushing public EV charging forward

The number of public electric vehicle (EV) charging points continues to grow, but which region and technology leads the way? Using the latest data from EV Volumes, Autovista24 editor Tom Geggus assesses the situation.

Charging infrastructure continues to grow across the world as EV adoption drives demand. But what is the best way to measure the volume of plug-in points currently available to the public?

Across 75 markets, EV Volumes tracks the number of locations where a certain connector type can be found. This surpasses a simple tally of station numbers, instead accounting for charger variety.

A station with two combined charging system (CCS) points counts as one location. Meanwhile, a charger offering one CCS and one CHAdeMO connection counts as two locations.

According to this classification, 3.85 million EV charging points were tallied by May 2025. This equated to an increase of 34.8% compared with the same point last year. However, this is slower than the 42.6% growth in May 2024 and far below the 81.8% recorded 12 months before that. There was an increase of 34.7% at the same point in 2022, but this was down from the 53.2% jump in May 2021.

Speedier charging?

While the rollout of public EV infrastructure might have slowed, not all technologies have developed at the same rate. Dividing charging speeds into three categories reveals some emerging trends.

some emerging trends.

The normal speed category includes type 1, 2 and 3 points, Tesla high-power wall connectors, and Chinese GB/T AC chargers. The power output in this category extends up to 24kW.

This grouping saw year-on-year growth of 71.8% in May 2023 and 58.3% in the same month last year. By May 2025, nearly 2.15 million normal-speed charging points were recorded across the 75 observed markets. This meant slower year-on-year growth of 23.4%.

The fast-charging category has followed a similar path. This grouping is made up of 22-60kW GB/T DC Chinese connectors as well as 50-350kW CHAdeMO and CCS plugs. By May this year, 1.69 million fast-charging points were tallied, up by 53% compared with the same point 12 months ago. This followed growth of 45.4% in May 2024 and 101.1% a year prior.

The ultra-fast category covers 250kW Tesla Superchargers and 350kW CCS plugs. The number of these points increased by 11.8% to 9,371 by May 2025. This grouping saw year-on-year growth of 27.1% by the same point in 2024 and 47.7% in May 2023.

Fast charging accelerates

While the ultrafast category has grown more slowly, EVs capable of charging at this speed remain in the minority. Additionally, these are often more premium models, outside of the mass market.

Meanwhile, the list of EVs capable of accessing fast charging infrastructure is far more expansive. Carmakers want to address concerns of longer plug-in times, introducing speedier charging capabilities more broadly as the technology advances.

This helps account for the fast-charging category seeing nearly double the growth of the normal grouping in May 2025. The technology also made up 44% of recorded public charging infrastructure, up by 5.3 percentage points (pp) from May 2024.

Most of this gain was at the expense of the normal speed grouping, which saw its share fall to 55.8%. At the same point last year, the technology made up 61% of all recorded plug-in points. This development follows the technological progression of EVs as they achieve faster charging speeds.

Meanwhile, the ultra-fast category shrank marginally by 0.1pp to 0.2%. This is likely due to the technology’s greater exclusivity, higher costs and greater demands on the grid. But have these charging speed trends been consistent across all regions?

Europe’s charging infrastructure

Across Europe, including the EU, EFTA and the UK, EV Volumes counted 442,804 public charging points. This equated to an increase of 14.4% compared with May 2024.

The region’s rate of growth does appear to have slowed since May 2023, when the tally jumped by 42.3% year on year. This was followed by a 29.1% increase at the same point in 2024.

With a 74.7% share, the majority of infrastructure in the region belonged in the normal speed category. However, the rate at which this category is expanding slowed to 11.7% year on year. This followed growth of 27.9% in May 2024 and 39% in the same month in 2023.

Both the fast and ultra-fast infrastructure groupings were subject to this trend as well. The fast category saw growth slow from 55% in May 2023 to 33.1% 12 months later, then 23.1% this year. This meant the technology took a 24.7% share, while ultra-fast remained stable at 0.6% over the last three years.

The Netherlands boosts numbers

While Europe has seen an increasing amount of public charging infrastructure installed, the spread was far from even. The Netherlands led the way, with 117,413 points recorded by May 2025.

This is not surprising given the country’s booming EV market. In the first five months of the year, the country recorded 80,373 new EV registrations, according to data from ACEA. This meant plug-in powertrains made up 54.1% of all new-car deliveries in the Netherlands from January to May.

Germany had the second-largest number of EV charging points, reaching a tally of 54,681. However, at 15,421 points, Germany had three times the number of fast chargers as the Netherlands at 4,429. In third, the UK reached 50,481 public chargers in total, with 18,587 fast points making up approximately a third of its overall offering.

At the other end of the spectrum, Malta had 75 normal speed chargers available. However, its smaller EV market has already experienced a drop in the first five months of the year. 835 plug-in vehicles were registered, down by 34.9%.

The EU is expected to see public EV charging infrastructure grow thanks to the Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Regulation. This year, charging stations outputting between 22kW and 150kW must be set up every 60km along the TEN-T road network.

There are also local requirements. In Germany, the Masterplan Ladeinfrastruktur, sets out a strategy to reach 1 million public charging points by 2030. Elsewhere, France aims to roll out 400,000 public charging points by 2030.

Way out in front

So, how does Europe compare with other major EV markets? According to EV Volumes, China’s new plug-in vehicle market grew by 42.2% year on year between January and May. This equated to the sale of 4.76 million units, the largest amount globally.

Accordingly, the number of public charging infrastructure far exceeded any other market. By May this year, just under 3.13 million points were available, up by 40.2% year on year. The normal category took a 51.6% share of this total, while 48.3% were fast. Ultra-fast, on the other hand, made up only 0.1% of public charging infrastructure.

As noted by the International Energy Agency’s (IEA’s) Global EV Outlook, there are important regional differences worthy of note. EV drivers in China’s densely populated urban areas rely on public infrastructure. Meanwhile, Europe has a far greater number of private chargers at home.

Uncertainty in the US

Compared with the relatively consistent expansion of charging points in China, the US has seen varied growth. The country recorded 81,693 connectors by May this year, marking a growth of 13.5%.

Normal speed chargers made up the majority of points, accounting for 77.7%, followed by fast points at 17.8%. However, where the US stood out was the far larger number of ultra-fast chargers, which made up 4.5% of plug-in points.

The National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure (NEVI) programme put aside $5 billion (€4.2 billion) to fund fast charging along corridors. However, the IEA highlights that by the end of last year, only $30 million had been spent on points which are now in operation.

Furthermore, these funds were frozen in January 2025 so the new administration could carry out a review. This put the further rollout of public EV charging infrastructure in the US into a far more precarious position.

With so many different approaches across the world, the rollout of public EV charging infrastructure will continue to be uneven.

European EV registrations rise as new model records first win

Battery-electric (BEV) and plug-in hybrid (PHEV) registrations rose across Europe in April, but which newcomer topped the BEV charts for the first time? Autovista24 journalist Tom Hooker breaks down the latest EV Volumes data.

A total of 186,827 BEVs were handed over to customers in Europe during April, up 27.7% year on year. This equated to a gain of 40,506 units. The result also continues the technology’s monthly double-digit growth streak between January and April 2025.

Meanwhile, PHEV volumes increased by 30.6% in the month, reaching 98,330 deliveries. This was the powertrain’s biggest improvement in the first four months of the year.

Registrations of all-electric vehicles totalled 765,820 units over the first third of the year. This resulted in a 27.9% growth compared to the same period in 2024. PHEVs increased deliveries by 11.5% from January to April, with 366,838 units.

Germany once again recorded the highest BEV volumes in Europe during the month. The country accounted for 24.3% of the technology’s total registrations, continuing a rebound from a difficult 2024.

France followed with a 14.3% share, then came the UK which represented 13.2% of the market. Belgium and Norway were the fourth and fifth, recording a 6.7% and 5.9% share respectively.

Germany also led the PHEV market, capturing 24.7% of the technology’s total. The UK landed second with a 14.2% share, followed by France which represented 9.6% of deliveries. Spain ended up fourth with a 9.4% share, as Italy made up 8% of volumes.

New model leads BEV registrations

The Skoda Elroq was the best-selling BEV in Europe in April, with 7,663 registrations. This was the compact SUV’s highest delivery total in only its sixth month on the market. The Elroq accounted for 4.1% of overall sales. Before April, the model had not appeared in the BEV top 10. It sat 17th in the cumulative chart between January and April.

The Volkswagen (VW) ID.3 took second place with 6,938 deliveries, up 33.4% on the same month last year. This marked its strongest monthly result since June 2024 and its highest ranking in the best-sellers table in the first four months of the year. The hatchback claimed a 3.7% market share, up 0.1 percentage points (pp) compared to April 2024.

The combined total of the Renault 5 and Alpine A290 followed, missing out on second place by just 138 units. The pair delivered 6,800 models to European customers, equating to a 3.6% share. It also marked the BEVs’ best finishing position since February.

Just 22 units behind was the VW ID.7 with 6,778 deliveries. This meant volumes of the saloon increased by 633.5% compared to April 2024. It represented 3.6% of the BEV market, up from 0.6%.

Its sibling, the VW ID.4, finished fifth. Its 6,323-unit total was a 4.7% improvement on 12 months prior. Yet, due to increased competition, its market share fell from 4.1% to 3.4%.

Skoda Enyaq struggles

The Skoda Enyaq secured sixth, continuing the dominance of VW Group in April’s BEV chart. The SUV increased registrations by 29% in April to 5,633 units. However, this was the first time it placed outside the top five in the first four months of the year. Its sales may have been impacted by the success of the Skoda Elroq. The Enyaq made up 3% of overall deliveries, stable from April 2024.

The Kia EV3 took seventh, posting 5,574 registrations in its seventh month on the market. This figure translated into a 3% share. The BMW iX1 followed in eighth, with its first appearance in the top 10 this year. It recorded 5,297 deliveries, up 17.6% year on year. The SUV represented 2.8% of the BEV market, down 0.3pp.

Ninth place went to the Tesla Model Y, with 4,805 units. Compared to April 2024, when it led the best-sellers table, this proved a notable slump of 49.9%. It also marked the crossover’s lowest delivery total since October 2022. This caused the Model Y’s market share to drop from 6.6% to 2.6%.

In 10th was the Audi Q4 e-tron, recording 4,595 registrations. This was the SUV’s lowest finishing position in the 2025 results, as its volumes fell by 22.3% year on year. In turn, its market share declined by 1.5pp to 2.5%. This meant that six VW Group models were featured in the BEV best-sellers table for April.

Tesla still tops BEVs

Despite its poor April performance, the Tesla Model Y continued to lead Europe’s BEV market in the cumulative table. Between January and April, it recorded 35,192 registrations giving it a 4.6% market share.

There was a change for position in second, as the VW ID.4 moved ahead of the Tesla Model 3. This was largely due to the Model 3’s 24th-place finish in April. The ID.4 took a 3.5% market share thanks to 26,798 deliveries, while the Model 3 recorded 26,028 registrations and a 3.4% share.

The Skoda Enyaq ranked fourth with 25,540 units, just 11 ahead of the VW ID.7, which saw a boost from strong April sales. Another 109 units behind was the combined total of the Renault 5 and Alpine A290. These models accounted for 3.3% of the BEV market.

In seventh was the ID.3, displacing the Kia EV3. The hatchback posted 24,301 registrations and a 3.2% share. Meanwhile, the EV3 recorded a 3.1% share with 24,007 deliveries.

Then came the Audi Q4-tron with 21,715 registrations, accounting for 2.8% of the overall market. The BMW iX1 completed the top 10, posting 19,676 deliveries and a 2.6% share.

Volvo XC60 recovers

The Volvo XC60 was the most popular PHEV in Europe in April, thanks to 5,093 registrations. However, this signalled a decline of 2% compared to 12 months prior. Its share fell from 6.9% to 5.2%, as competition in the sector intensified.

BYD’s Seal U secured second place with 4,783 units, accounting for 4.9% of total volume. Close behind, the VW Tiguan posted 4,753 deliveries, an impressive 623.4% increase on the same month last year. The SUV captured a 4.8% market share, up 3.9pp.

The BMW X1 followed in fourth, with 3,029 registrations. This was its best result so far in 2025, yet the performance was down 6.7% on April 2024. The SUV captured 3.1% of PHEV volumes, down from 4.3%.

After leading the market in March, the Ford Kuga placed fifth in April. The PHEV recorded 2,949 deliveries, its smallest monthly figure since August 2024. Despite a 7.4% growth in registrations, its market share fell by 0.6pp to 3% due to increased market saturation.

Toyota C-HR registrations surge

Securing sixth was the Toyota C-HR, surging 321.2% year on year with 2,864 units. It accounted for 2.9% of the market, up 2pp compared to 12 months prior.

Seventh went to the Mercedes-Benz GLC. Although it achieved its biggest monthly total so far in 2025, the SUV’s 2,634 deliveries were still down by 23.2%. This translated to a 2.7% share, down from 4.6%.

Just one unit behind was the Cupra Formentor. However, it had contrasting fortunes compared to one year ago, enjoying a 6.2% rise in registrations. Yet, its market share dropped by 0.6pp to 2.7%.

BMW’s 5-Series placed ninth after landing outside the best-sellers top 10 in March. The saloon reached 2,587 deliveries in the month, up 145.2% year on year. The PHEV accounted for 2.6% of the overall total, up from 1.4%.

The Audi A3 closed out the top 10, making its first appearance in the table this year. The model recorded a 2.7% fall in volumes compared to April 2024. However, its 2,538-unit total was the model’s highest monthly figure since then. It took a 2.6% market share, down by 0.9pp.

VW takes fight to Ford

The Volvo XC60 continued to lead Europe’s PHEV market in the year to date, with 19,905 registrations and a 5.4% share. Behind, the VW Tiguan took second from the Ford Kuga. The former recorded 17,646 deliveries and a 4.8% share between January and April. Meanwhile, the Kuga made up 4.3% of PHEV volumes with 15,918 units.

BYD’s Seal U finished fourth thanks to 14,974 registrations. This translated to a 4.1% market share. Then came the Toyota C-HR, with a 3.3% share and 12,193 deliveries. The Cupra Formentor secured sixth, accounting for 3.1% of the overall total, with 11,253 units.

Just 246 registrations behind was the BMW X1, benefitting from a strong April. This gave the SUV 11,007 units and a 3% share. The BMW 5-Series claimed eighth, representing 2.6% of the PHEV market and posting 9,633 deliveries.

The Hyundai Tucson claimed ninth with 8,941 registrations and a 2.4% share. Skoda’s Kodiaq was only 180 units behind the SUV, recording 8,761 deliveries and capturing 2.4% of total volumes.

How many EV batteries were produced globally in 2024?

Which electric vehicle (EV) battery manufacturers produced the most cells in 2024? How many gigawatt hours (GWh) were achieved? Autovista24 special content editor Phil Curry examines the latest data from EV Volumes.

In 2024, the number of electric passenger cars on the global market increased by 26.1%, as battery-electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids grew in popularity. This rise meant that more EV batteries than ever were required to keep up with demand.

In total, gigafactories worldwide achieved a total of 867.8GWh cell output for EV batteries, destined for both passenger cars and commercial vehicles. This was an increase in production of 21.2% compared to 2023.

Battery suppliers measure their output in GWh rather than the total number of units produced. One GWh is equivalent to one million kilowatt hours (kWh), the measurement often found in battery-electric vehicle (BEV) specifications. If an average BEV has a capacity of 50kWh, then 1GWh worth of batteries could supply some 20,000 models.

Despite the volume growth, the improvement was the lowest since EV Volumes began tracking cell output in 2014. In 2023, cell production was up 40%, while in 2022 it grew 73%, and in 2021 total output was up 112% year on year.

However, rather than implying a slowdown in production, the reduction in growth may indicate that more gigafactories have reached their production capacities. Many sites will start with a lower cell output, and can take years to reach their full potential.

CATL’s EV batteries top

Once again, the Chinese supplier CATL led the way in the production of EV batteries. The company was the first ever to break the 300GWh barrier, with a total of 300.8GWh in 2024. This was a 24.8% improvement compared to its total capacity of 2023.

This performance meant CATL dominated the market in 2024, producing 34.7% of the total cell output in the year. This was an increase of one percentage point (pp), as more new players in the market diluted the total shares.

The Chinese battery manufacturer rose to the top of the rankings in 2021 and has remained there ever since. Since 2022, it has almost doubled the total of its nearest competitors. From the start of 2014, it has manufactured 858.6GWh of EV batteries. This makes it the largest supplier by far.

The company is continuing to grow, announcing a joint venture with Stellantis for a large-scale LFP battery plant in Spain last year. This site will be located at the carmaker’s Zaragoza facility, with production expected to begin in 2026. It could reach up to 50GWh capacity, and will help Stellantis provide more affordable EVs to customers.

CATL has also formed a strategic partnership on battery-swapping technologies with Nio. The battery manufacturer will strengthen the carmaker’s battery-swapping networks, and will be integrated into the new firefly brand from Nio.  

Potential for EV batteries

BYD took second place for the third year in a row. The manufacturer saw a cell output of 156.8GWh last year, an increase of 27.5% year on year. This meant the brand produced 18.1% of the total capacity in 2024, an increase of 0.9pp.

Since 2014, BYD has produced 416.1GWh-worth of cells. The brand has been expanding its automotive market scope in recent years and was the leading global EV manufacturer in 2024.

BYD will be hoping to expand upon its popularity this year and beyond. It recently unveiled its ‘Super e-Platform’, which could deliver a range of 400km in five minutes. The technology is expected to be capable of charging at speeds of 1,000KW.

Third place in the table went to LG Energy Solution, meaning the top three in 2024 mirrored the previous year. The Korean company produced 108GWh of cells last year, an improvement of just 1.8% compared to 2023.

This small increase, together with growing competition in the market, meant the brand’s share dropped last year by 2.4pp to 12.4% of total cell output.

The brand, which was the leading supplier in 2020, will be looking to boost its output this year, adding to its 436.7GWH total capacity since 2014. This figure places it second in the all-time table, ahead of BYD.

In December 2024, LG Energy Solution announced a plan with GM to jointly develop prismatic battery-cell technology, extending its partnership with the carmaker. This would allow the battery producer to be the first global battery manufacturer to offer all three cell form factors: pouch-type, cylindrical, and prismatic.

Making moves

In fourth place, Panasonic saw its cell output drop in 2024. The brand maintained fourth place from the previous year, but its 53.1GWh production capacity was down 8.1%. This meant that Panasonic’s hold on the market dropped by 2pp compared to 2023 and sat at 6.1%. Since 2014, the manufacturer has produced 297.2GWh of cells.

Meanwhile, fifth saw the first position change in the top 10. CALB jumped up the table, from seventh position in 2023. Its 39.8GHw capacity last year was an improvement of 58.1%. It took a 4.6% share of the market, up 1.1pp year on year.

CALB’s growth meant that its total output since 2014 totalled 102.1GWh at the end of 2024. The manufacturer has increased production rapidly from a 4.2GWh output in 2020.

This meant that SK On was pushed down into sixth position. The battery supplier was not only overtaken, but it also lost capacity compared to 2023. Its output of 36.4GWh was down 7%, while its market share fell by 1.3pp, to 4.2%. However, its 134.2GWh total capacity over this period kept it ahead of CALB.

Close at the bottom

Close behind in seventh place was Samsung SDI, with a total of 34GWh in 2024. This was also a decline for the brand, dropping 7.5% of capacity from the previous year. The result also impacted market share, falling 1.2pp to 3.9%. Since 2014, the company has produced 131.1GWh-worth of EV battery cells.

The lower positions of the top 10 battery manufacturers table saw a close finish for eighth and ninth places. Narrowly taking the higher spot was Sunwoda. The company produced the best year-on-year increase within the table, with 124.9% more output in 2024, as its capacity reached 17.1GWh.

This increase saw the manufacturer jump from 12th place in 2023. Sunwoda is also the newest producer in the top 10, having only begun its output in 2017. Its market share of 2% was up from the 1.1% it recorded in 2023. Since beginning production, the company has a total cell output of 31.6GWh.

Just below, in ninth position, was Farasis Energy. The second-newest brand, having begun production in 2015, ended the year with capacity of 17GWh. When breaking the results down, there was just 10MWh between eighth and ninth places.

Faris Energy’s 2024 cell volume was a rise of 12.1% year on year. However, due to better results elsewhere, the manufacturer’s market share slipped by 0.1pp to 2%. Its 41.2GWh lifetime capacity kept it above Sunwoda due to an early start to production.

A new name entered the table in 10th position. Gotion ended the year with a cell output of 13.7GWh, up 66.2% compared to 2023. Its 1.6% share was also up, by 0.5pp.

However, between 2014 and 2024, the manufacturer produced 43GWh of cells, more than both Sunwoda and Farasis Energy ahead of it. This result meant Envision AESC dropped out of the top 10.

Is bigger really better for BEV batteries?

Autovista24

Bigger batteries may remedy range anxiety, but smaller power-storage units can reduce costs and purchase prices of battery-electric vehicles (BEVs). Dr Christof Engelskirchen, chief economist of Autovista Group (part of J.D. Power), explores the economies of smaller batteries.

As the BEV market develops, with carmakers introducing new models, not all brands offer a variety of battery-size options. This is a valid approach, as focusing on larger power-storage units helps to tackle both range anxiety and charging anxiety.

This means peace of mind and conveys an impression of being future-proof. This is especially true as charging infrastructure continues to develop across Europe, where it currently may struggle to meet demand.

Few will question the logic of choosing a larger battery, while selecting a smaller one may raise some eyebrows. But is it rational to opt for the biggest battery unit available, especially as it is the most expensive BEV component? The short answer is ‘it depends’.

To understand whether bigger really is better, some facts need to be unpacked. This can be achieved by comparing the standard and the long-range variants of the Tesla Model Y and Volvo EX30, with a focus on the rear-wheel drive (RWD) single-motor variants.

The Model Y was not only the best-selling car in Europe last year, but it also took the global title. Meanwhile, the recently introduced EX30 emphasises mass-market compatibility, in a vehicle segment where this has been absent for so long.

The cost of greater range

When comparing online transaction prices for new vehicles after fees and applicable company discounts, the initial challenge for bigger batteries is revealed. An additional range of approximately 140km costs between €3,400 and €4,500 (net). This price increase is smaller for Tesla than for Volvo, both in absolute and relative terms.

As a side note, the Model Y is attractively priced, and Volvo needs to offer an additional discount of €2,100 (net) to maintain the required distance between transaction prices. The larger Model Y also offers three times the boot volume of the EX30, while also being around 50cm longer and nearly 10cm taller and wider.

Transaction price difference by battery size for Tesla Model Y and Volvo EX30 in Germany

BEV batteries
Source: Manufacturer websites and Autovista Group analysis.

Note: € values are net (exclude VAT). Data from May 2024.

Surprisingly, the WLTP consumption figures do not differ much between each model’s battery variants. In fact, the long-range versions seem to operate more efficiently. Both carmakers use different battery technologies according to the intended range. Their smaller batteries use a lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) chemistry, while the larger units use a lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide (NMC) makeup. This is the primary contributing factor to the different battery efficiencies.

Small and economic?

So, how are battery sizes handled in leasing contracts of 36 months and 60,000km? Under its business leasing offer, Tesla charges a moderate €42 (net) per month for more range. This takes the range of the Model Y from an already considerable 455km (WLTP) to 600km (WLTP).

Across one year this accumulates to €504 of additional cost, and roughly €1,500 over three years. This is less than half of what would be paid if the vehicle was purchased outright.

Care by Volvo, the carmaker’s long-term rental and subscription service model, sits at a monthly premium of €59. This adds up to €708 a year and approximately €2,100 over three years. Under this plan, the EX30 goes from a lower range of 337km (WLPT) to a solid 476km (WLTP).

Despite these relatively small uplifts, the price still clearly points towards the smaller battery being the more economical choice. However, it is important to consider how usage impacts utilisation costs. When driving in higher-mileage scenarios, BEVs with a smaller range may require substantially more frequent public charging stops, which are more expensive and less convenient.

Testing with two scenarios

Two scenarios can be used to simulate these economic conditions, alongside certain assumptions.

In the first scenario, 80% of the annual 20,000km mileage covers short trips where all charging takes place at home or the workplace. Here, electricity costs are comparatively lower, at €0.25 per kWh (net) in Germany.

The remaining 20% of the annual mileage (4,000km) is made up of long-distance trips. This consists of four short weekend or business trips of 500km each and two larger journeys of 1,000km each.

It is assumed that the driver charges the vehicle to 100% ahead of each trip. Additionally, public charging points are only used when the remaining range reaches 40km, at which point the battery is recharged to 80%. This makes sense in terms of convenience, as it takes roughly the same time to charge from 20% to 80% as it does from 80% to 100%. The costs of fast charging at public infrastructure are set at €0.5 per kWh (net) in Germany.

For the sake of simplicity, real-life ranges are assumed to be 80% of the respective WLTP values for short distances and 65% for longer journeys, conducted at much faster speeds. These assumptions are in line with real-life consumption levels which have been observed, recorded and published in the public domain. Regardless, the overall results are not sensitive to these assumptions.

In the second scenario, the driving pattern is modified so that half of the mileage, 10,000km, is spent on longer trips. This equates to 10 weekend or business trips of 500km each and five longer journeys of 1,000km. The remaining assumptions are unchanged.

Smaller cost savings

Under these scenarios, public-charging costs come down when switching from a short-range model to a long-range one. This is the case for both the Model Y and the EX30, however, the savings are not as significant as some might hope.

The annual cost savings accrued due to less public charging is only between €59 and €62 a year in scenario one and between €149 and €154 in scenario two. Savings partially erode as the car still needs to be charged, albeit at more affordable domestic or company wallboxes.

Annual cost difference when moving from a standard to a long-range BEV in Germany

electric vehicle
Source: Manufacturer websites, Autovista Group research and analysis.

Note: Leasing rates and charging costs are in € and net (exclude VAT). Vehicles are held for 36 months and the annual mileage is 20,000km. The starting point of ‘lease rate short range’ comes from manufacturer websites and represents the annualised monthly business rate. To balance this comparison, the Tesla Model Y has €111 added each month for insurance. This is because the carmaker does not include insurance in its offer, but Volvo does. Data is from May 2024.

Overall, with net cost savings, it is still more economical to opt for the smaller battery in both scenarios. This means the total cost of ownership (TCO) advantages remain for the smaller battery versions after simulating the more expensive stops at public chargers.

There is a noticeable difference between Tesla and Volvo. The annual TCO difference for the Model Y is only between €406 and €475 in both scenarios. This is because of the smaller premium required for the long-range model versus the standard-range version when compared to Volvo. For the EX30, the TCO difference is between €614 and €669 per year when choosing the larger battery over the standard one.

Calculating convenience

The added convenience of fewer public charging stops must also be considered for those BEVs with a bigger battery.

The standard Tesla Model Y offers such a good range it can handle the use case of scenario one quite well, requiring only 16 stops a year. Meanwhile, the long-range version reduces the annual number of stops from 16 to 10.

Here, the case for a smaller battery may be economically apparent, but for many people, the long-range version offers added flexibility at a small additional cost.

The longer-range variant of the Volvo EX30 reduces the number of stops more significantly from 26 to 16. Therefore, the added convenience of the longer-range version is considerable, but then so is the price premium. This makes it a tie in terms of choice, with budget and actual use case the likely deciding factors.

In scenario two, the standard-range Model Y makes 40 stops a year at public chargers. This will be enough to push most customers towards the long-range version. The TCO disadvantage of the bigger battery comes down to only €406 a year, or €27 per saved stop.

Similarly for the EX30, investing the additional €614 a year in scenario two would make sense. This would bring the stops down to 40 from 65 with the standard range version and costs €25 per saved stop.

A balanced decision

So, if the price or leasing rate increase for a larger battery is small, going big will mean an extra layer of convenience and security. This also reduces stress on developing infrastructure, with more stops requiring more chargers.

If the cost uplift is more substantial, smaller batteries will still deliver, while remaining the more economical choice. This is especially true if shorter trips define a person’s driving pattern.

However, when longer journeys underline a person’s driving pattern, it will be worth assessing the number of stops needed with the given battery variant. This will ensure a well-balanced decision between added costs, extra flexibility and greater convenience.

This content is brought to you by Autovista24.