Is an EV revolution brewing in the Baltics?

Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia have all seen a notable electric vehicle (EV) uptake in recent years. What is behind this growth in the Baltics, and how bright is the future? Joanna Fabiszewska-Solares, market analyst at EV Volumes, examines the data with Autovista24 web editor James Roberts.

While EV adoption, made up of battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), remains inconsistent across Europe, some markets are pushing forward. In Portugal, every third car registered in the country last year was an EV. In Norway, BEVs account for almost 92% of new car registrations in 2024, according to EV Volumes data.

Three nations can be added to this trend: Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia. Although not officially affiliated, they are strongly bonded through regional cooperation, historical ties, plus shared strategic and geopolitical interests.

One further thing they share is recent, and significant, uptake in BEVs and PHEVs. In all three light-vehicle markets, accounting for passenger cars and light-commercial vehicles (LCVs), the EV share reached double digits.

Underneath the apparent EV prosperity of these three geographically contiguous economies lies a complex set of circumstances. While Latvia and Lithuania are experiencing overall positive new-car sales spanning all powertrains, Estonia is seeing a more downbeat picture. The trio of markets needs to handle varying incentives, charging infrastructure challenges, and the forging of domestic energy independence.

Latvia leading the way

The second largest Baltic state in terms of population, at nearly 1.86 million, Latvia has developed a significant EV base. According to EV Volumes, between January and August, EVs accounted for 18.4% of the nation’s light-vehicle market.

This meant 2,842 plug-in light vehicles were sold in the country in the eight months. This is compared to 1,156 at the same point last year, with a 10% share of the market.

Between January and August this year, 1,076 BEVs took to Latvia’s roads, claiming a 7% market share. This was just 159 fewer than the 2024 total, which stood at 1,235, suggesting a new high will be achieved this year.

2023 set a high watermark for BEV sales in Latvia, in what was a strong year for the entire domestic automotive market. The powertrain achieved a 9.5% share of light-vehicle sales, with 1,800 units shifted. However, the following year saw a decline in BEV adoption as well as an overall fall in light-vehicle registrations.

Weaker BEV sales in 2024 were largely the result of stricter EU-wide CO₂ emission standards and impending 2025 emission targets. This contributed to a year-end push to sell internal-combustion engine (ICE) vehicles across many other EU countries, including Latvia.

Underlining a pan-Baltic trend, PHEVs have enjoyed notable popularity in Latvia so far this year. Between January and August, the powertrain passed the 1,000-delivery mark for the first time, hitting 1,766 units. This is already up from 741 registered across 2024, with the powertrain achieving an 11.4% market share already this year.

Incentives driving EV uptake in Latvia

In 2023, EVs accounted for 11.6% of light vehicles taking to Latvia’s roads. This share remained stable at 11.5% in 2024, thanks mostly to an increased PHEV share. In isolation, the hybrid powertrain took a 2.1% share in 2023, then a 4.3% in 2024.

Amid the wider new light-vehicle market falling by 9.5% in 2024, the BEV market share dropped 2.3 percentage points (pp) last year. Conversely, BEV deliveries fell from 1,800 in 2023 to 1,235 one year later.

This year, major policy changes and increased availability of affordable models are supporting increased EV ownership. In April, the Latvian government raised the total funding support for EV and hybrid adoption by €11 million. This included EV purchase grants, setting subsidy levels at €4,500 for BEVs, and €2,250 for PHEVs.

Coupled with this, falling interest rates have resulted in higher corporate purchases and leasing. This has driven total light-vehicle registrations upwards, despite inflationary pressure.

Aligned with these incentives, BEVs, PHEVs, and hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles (FCEVs) remain exempt from registration tax. The policy amendments also increased the Operation Vehicle Tax (VEN) for internal-combustion engine (ICE) powered vehicles from January 2025.

EV Volumes forecasts that EV sales in Latvia’s passenger car segment alone will grow by 27.5% in 2026. This will be driven by the availability of affordable EVs, as well as the tightening of EU-wide CO₂ regulations.

Lithuania’s vibrant EV market

So far this year, Lithuania, the largest of the Baltic states, has seen a similar PHEV-driven electrification trend to Latvia.

Between January and August this year, the country saw 27,582 light vehicles registered. This puts it on course to meet last year’s total of 30,101 units. So, what percentage of these sales were attributable to plug-in hybrids?

Between January and August this year, 2,532 PHEVs were registered in the country. This is already an increase of 77.1% on 2024’s total, which stood at 1,430. BEV registrations reached 1,616 deliveries in the first eight months of this year. This is on course to exceed 2024’s total of 1,720. However, this is likely to be below 2023’s record of 2,034 units.

EV sales accounted for 15% of the Lithuanian light-vehicle market between January and August this year. This was up from 9.5% registered in the first eight months of 2024. EV growth has been mostly driven by increased PHEV registrations. The powertrain represented a 9.2% market share in the first eight months of this year, compared with just a 4.1% across the same period last year.

Looking further back, EV registrations have surged since reaching 8.1% in 2022. EV sales in the passenger car segment are projected to continue growing. A year-on-year increase of 36.5% is expected by the end of 2025, according to EV Volumes.

Varied EV incentives in Lithuania

Since 2021, EV purchase subsidies have been available in Lithuania. These include €5,000 for individuals, as well as a €1,000 scrappage bonus, extending to €4,000 for companies. BEVs are also exempt from road tax until the end of 2025. From 2026, these vehicles will receive a 75% discount.

Additionally, green tax reforms were introduced in January this year. This included the Corporate Income Tax Act (CIT), which is aimed at increasing taxable deductions for lower-emission vehicles. The sliding scale provides a maximum deduction of up to €75,000 for zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs).

Like Latvia, Lithuania’s EV sector has also benefited from falling interest rates. A growing number of leasing and renewal contracts from rental companies has helped push EV registrations up too.

When it comes to EV charging infrastructure, Lithuania leads the way in the Baltics. The country benefits from a higher density than Latvia and Estonia. According to EV Volumes, Lithuania has a total of 1,618 public EV charging locations. This is compared to 1,180 in Estonia and 1,172 in Latvia.

Estonia’s complex EV landscape

Compared with Latvia and Lithuania, Estonia’s new-car market is experiencing notable headwinds. While the three Baltic states all suffer from high inflation, Estonia possesses the second-highest rate in the EU at 6.2%.

This factor is contributing to a decline in domestic new light-vehicle sales. According to EV Volumes data, between January and August 2025, total light vehicle sales fell by 39.6%. This equated to just 8,275 units taking to Estonia’s roads in the period.

In particular, ICE sales have dramatically fallen since January. This increasing void has boosted the overall market share of EVs in the country, albeit compared with a low baseline. Although the longer-term forecast for relative EV growth is promising.

However, in volume terms, EV sales in Estonia are declining. Between January and August this year, 1,262 EVs were registered. This is compared with 1,387 in the same period last year, representing a 9% decrease. However, the EV share of passenger cars in Estonia increased to 17.3%, compared to 10.2% at the same point last year.

Estonia powertrain breakdown

Across the first eight months of 2025, BEVs held a 7.1% share of the overall light-vehicle market. Meanwhile, PHEVs took a 10.2% slice. In 2024, EVs accounted for 9.7% of the overall market, which amounted to 2,454 units. This was up from 2022, when 1,995 new EVs were registered.

Like fellow Baltic states, Estonia has rolled out incentives to boost EV uptake. The Motor Vehicle Tax Act was introduced in January. Like incentives in Latvia and Lithuania, it offers reduced vehicle tax for owners of EVs.

According to EV Volumes forecasts, passenger car registrations in Estonia will increase moderately by 3.9% year-on-year in 2026. EVs are forecast to expand, supported by ongoing tax exemptions and the EU-wide tightening of CO₂ emission standards. As a result, BEV and PHEV numbers are expected to grow by 42.8% year-on-year.