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Global EV Sales for 2023

By Roland Irle, EV-Volumes

Global EV sales continued as expected by us at the beginning of 2023. A total of 14,2 million new Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV) and Plug-in Hybrids (PHEV) were delivered during 2023, an increase of +35 %. 10 million were pure electric BEVs and 4,2 million were Plug-in Hybrids (PHEV) and Range Extender EVs (EREV).

Media reporting that EV adoption is in reverse is not evident in our monthly tracking. Global deliveries of BEVs and PHEVs increased by 3,66 million units over 2022 and all monthly sales were between 8 % and 52 % higher than in the year previous. 5 months of 2023 witnessed new all-time highs for EV sales, Market share increases were consistent throughout the year. The exception was Germany, Europe's largest EV market, where a series of significant cuts in EV grants lead to s decline in EV sales and market shares.  European EV registration were up by a meager +17 % vs 2022; excluding Germany, the increase was +32 %. China EV sales increased by +36 % in 2023 y/y, EV sales in USA and Canada were +46 % higher than the year previous.  EV sales outside the aforementioned markets increased by +81 %, albeit from a low base.

In most countries the EV increases were accompanied by a strong recovery in overall light vehicle markets, increasing by +10,5 % globally. EV adoption does not follow auto market slumps and recoveries in lockstep. Successful EV launches, financial incentives, improving charging infrastructure and environmentalism are stronger forces. Slowing overall auto sales typically lead to faster EV share increases while strong auto market recoveries slow down EV share gains.

EV shares still continued to increase in most markets. BEVs (11,1 %) and PHEVs (4,7 %) stood for 15,8 % of global light vehicle sales in 2023, compared to 13,0 % in 2022. Norway had the highest market share of EVs in 2023 (BEVs 72 % + PHEVs 7 %), followed by Hong Kong and the Nordic countries in Europe. China had 33,9 %, Europe 21,4 % and USA 9,4 %. The fastest growing markets were Turkey with 86 600 units, up +805 %, Brazil with 50 400 units, up +359 %, Thailand with 89 000 units, up +328 %, Malaysia with 10 400 BEV & PHEV units, +886 % and Australia with 93 00 units, up +141 %.

PHEVs stood for 29,6 % in the global BEV-PHEV mix in 2023 compared to 27,2 % in 2022, a deviation from the long-term trend. The PHEV volume increase was 1,33 million units, most of it (1,2m) in China. High sales of BYD PHEVs and the renaissance of Range Extender Electric Vehicles (EREVs) are the main reason. EREVs have larger batteries and longer all-electric range than PHEVs, carrying a small petrol engine as a "back-up" generator. The Chevrolet Volt and the BMW i3 were early examples of this concept, the current EREV leader is Li Motor with 376 000 units delivered in 2023. Total EREV sales were 705 900 units, of which 98 % in were sold in China. Sales of Fuel Cell Vehicles (FCEV) in the light vehicle sector have declined by -38 % vs 2022 and stayed below 10 000 units annually. Current sales are from five vehicle models and most sales are in South Korea and USA. We estimate their current population to be about 60000 units.

BYD increased sales to 3 million units (+62 % y/y), remaining as the #1 in the global EV sales ranking, with their 1,44 million PHEV sales included. Counting BEVs only, Tesla still leads with 1,81 million units delivered in 2023, an increase of 38 % over 2022. A common observation is that pure EV players grew their sales faster than legacy OEMs.

By the end of 2023 we expect 40 million EVs in operation, counting light vehicles, 70 % of which are BEVs and 30 % PHEVs. For 2024, we expect sales of 17,8 million EVs, growth of +25 % over 2023, with BEVs reaching 12,8 million units and PHEVs 5 million units.
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BEV & PHEV Sales Outperforming the Auto-Market Recovery

Finally, 2023 saw a worldwide, robust recovery of auto sales. Following the Covid crunch of 2020 and supply constraints during 2021 and 2022, better availability, lower prices and pent-up demand pushed global light vehicle sales to a 10,5 % increase over 2022.

Globally, EVs outperformed the market by a good margin, increasing volume by 35 %. Exceptions were in Germany, Norway, Italy and South Korea, where EVs lost market share compared to 2022. The German drawback was particularly painful with a 6 % loss in EV market share and 122 000 fewer units delivered. A series of EV incentive cuts were the main reason, legacy OEMs acting more margin-conscious was another.

EV deliveries in USA grew by 48 % over 2022 (46 % for USA & Canada combined), having increased 50 % from 2021 to 2022. It appears that the EV grants in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), available since January 2023, had limited impact on EV adoption. The grants require EV production within the USMCA (fmr NAFTA) and battery material sourcing from Free Trade Agreement partners (China is not). Battery supply constraints were a frequent occurrence among domestic OEM during 2023.

China is, by far, the largest EV market with 8,4 million units in 2023 and 59 % of global EV sales. With 9,3 million EVs made, China's role as the largest EV production base is even stronger: 65 % of global EV sales in 2023 came out of China. 900 000 EVs were exported from China, most of them (530k) by Western brands. The largest exporters were Tesla, SAIC (MG, Maxus), Geely (Volvo, Polestar, Lynk, Smart) BYD, Renault (Dacia), BMW and Great Wall. All others exported below 20 000 units each.

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OEM Ranking for BEV & PHEV Deliveries

Most OEMs have again grown their sales in 2023. Global EV deliveries increased by +35 % y/y in total; OEMs with higher growth have increased their share in the EV sector. Comments for the Top-5:

BYD extended it's lead, by boosting sales of existing models and successfully introducing new models. The BYD vehicle portfolio covers 10 product segments with a total of 30 vehicle models. Since BYD phased out ICE-only versions in 2022, they became the largest maker of PHEVs and moved from rank #3 in 2021 to #1 for BEVs & PHEVs combined. Among over 3 million unit sales in 2023, only 130k were exported; seven times more than in 2022.

Tesla still leads global sales of BEVs but by a smaller margin, with a share of 18 % in all BEVs sold worldwide. Year-on-year volume growth for Tesla was +38 %, compared to a 30 % increase of total BEV sales.

The VW Group increased EV sales by +20 % over 2022; BEVs gained 31 %, while PHEVs lost volume. Growth in China was only 5 % y/y to 232 000 units, with a decline only avoided by a strong boost of Audi Q4 BEV and VW ID.e BEV sales in the second half of the year. Sales in USA & Canada increased by +61 % from a surge in Audi Q4 BEV sales and the ramp-up of US production of the VW ID.4 BEV. Sales in Western & Central Europe increased by +21 % y/y to 636 000 units, representing 63 % of the Group's BEV & PHEV volume.

Geely, including their international brands Volvo, Polestar, Lynk & Co, Lotus and Smart increased sales by +44 %. The highest contributors were the new Geely Panda Mini, the Lynk & Co 08 PHEV, the new Smart #1, various models from Volvo, Zeekr and their new  Galaxy Brand. The Emgrand, Geometry and Maple are in strong decline and may be phased out. Polestar disappointed by just 11 % growth, still offering only one volume model, the Polestar 2.

The Wuling Mini EVs have passed their sales peak; GM gained only +13 % for that reason. Excluding the Mini EVs, GM's combined growth for EVs was +70 %.

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